Two large earthquakes(an earthquake doublet)occurred in south-central Turkey on February 6,2023,causing massive damages and casualties.The magnitudes and the relative sizes of the two mainshocks are essential informat...Two large earthquakes(an earthquake doublet)occurred in south-central Turkey on February 6,2023,causing massive damages and casualties.The magnitudes and the relative sizes of the two mainshocks are essential information for scientific research and public awareness.There are obvious discrepancies among the results that have been reported so far,which may be revised and updated later.Here we applied a novel and reliable long-period coda moment magnitude method to the two large earthquakes.The moment magnitudes(with one standard error)are 7.95±0.013 and 7.86±0.012,respectively,which are larger than all the previous reports.The first mainshock,which matches the largest recorded earthquakes in the Turkish history,is slightly larger than the second one by 0.11±0.035 in magnitude or by 0.04 to 0.18 at 95%confidence level.展开更多
Stochastic finite-fault simulations are effective for simulating ground motions and are widely used in engineering to determine the impacts of ground motion and develop relevant predictive equations.In this study,the ...Stochastic finite-fault simulations are effective for simulating ground motions and are widely used in engineering to determine the impacts of ground motion and develop relevant predictive equations.In this study,the source,path,and site amplification coefficient of western Sichuan Province,China,and stochastic finite-fault simulations were used to simulate the acceleration time series,Fourier amplitude spectra,and 5%damped response spectra of 28 strong-motion stations with rupture distances within 300 km of the 2022 MS6.8 Luding earthquake.The simulation results of 14 stations at rupture distances of 45-185 km match the observation.However,the simulation results of 3 near-and 6 far-field stations at rupture distances of 12-36 km and 222-286 km,respectively,were obviously deviated from the observations.Simulation results of the near-field stations are larger than the observations at high frequencies(>6 Hz).The discrepancy likely comes from the nonlinear site effect of near-field stations,which reduced the site amplification at high frequencies.Simulation result of the far-field stations is smaller than the observation at frequencies above 1 Hz.As these stations are located close to the Longmenshan Fault Zone(LFZ),thus,we obtained a new quality factor(Q)from data of historical events and stations located around LFZ.Using the new Q value,the discrepancies of the high-frequency simulation results of the far-field stations were corrected.This result indicated that the laterally varying Q values can be used to address the impact of strong crustal lateral heterogeneity on simulation.展开更多
On September 5,2022,at Beijing time 12:52 p.m.,an M_(S)6.8 earthquake struck Luding County,GarzêTibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province.The epicenter of the earthquake was at the intersection of the Sichua...On September 5,2022,at Beijing time 12:52 p.m.,an M_(S)6.8 earthquake struck Luding County,GarzêTibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province.The epicenter of the earthquake was at the intersection of the Sichuan-Yunnan,Bayankala,and South China blocks.The tectonic background is extremely complex,and strong earthquakes occur frequently.Based on a predetermined focal location and focal mechanism solution for the earthquake,we reversed the focal depth and rupture process of the earthquake by fitting the teleseismic P and SH waves recorded by the global seismic network.The results show that the focal depth is 16 km,with the main rupture having a length of about 45 km near the epicenter,with a maximum displacement of 1.02 m.Although the rupture mainly propagates from the north–northwest(NNW)to the south–southeast(SSE)along the fault strike,there is a small-scale rupture slip zone at shallow depths in the north–northeast(NNE)direction along the epicenter of the seismogenic fault.This rupture image corresponds to the cluster distribution of aftershocks in the NNW and SSE directions starting from the epicenter,corresponding to the distribution of recorded landslides.The earthquake occurred on the Moxi fault,located in the southeastern section of the Xianshuihe fault.The major tectonic feature in this area is the southeastward movement of the Chuandian block relative to the Bayanhar block.展开更多
After the September 5,2022(Beijing time).Luding Ms6.8 earthquake(29.59°N.102.08°E.depth 16 km.according to the initial determination by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)).field investigation was car...After the September 5,2022(Beijing time).Luding Ms6.8 earthquake(29.59°N.102.08°E.depth 16 km.according to the initial determination by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)).field investigation was carried out by the China Earthquake Administration(CEA).which associated the earthquake to the Moxi segment on the south part of the Xianshuihe fault system.This segment,with horizontal slip rate 5-10 mm/a.locates in the convergent part among the Xianshuihe fault.展开更多
To reveal the seismogenic mechanism of the Luding earthquake, we employed the 118 China Seismic Network stations to collect the P-wave polarity data from each station, which was then used in the P-wave first motion ap...To reveal the seismogenic mechanism of the Luding earthquake, we employed the 118 China Seismic Network stations to collect the P-wave polarity data from each station, which was then used in the P-wave first motion approach to calculate the focal mechanism solution of the M6.8 Luding earthquake that occurred on September 5,2022. We have also studied the loading effect of tectonic stress on the Luding earthquake fault based on the stress field data for the research area. The results indicate that this earthquake was a strike-slip type, the nodal plane I:strike 167°, dip angle 78°, slip angle 2°;Nodal plane II: strike 77°, dip angle 88°, slip angle 168°. The two fault planes’ instability coefficients of the Luding earthquake are examined considering the region’s background stress field’s condition. The nodal plane I in the Moho circle is discovered to practically coincide with the Coulomb failure line and the tangent point of the Moho circle, indicating that this nodal plane has a high instability coefficient compared to the nodal plane II. The conclusion is that the nodal plane I has a higher likelihood of being the seismogenic fault plane, which is congruent with the seismogenic fault plane suggested by the aftershock distribution, the earthquake radiation energy distribution of a single station, and seismic intensity distribution.The Luding earthquake’s focal mechanism is highly like the theoretical focal mechanism of the fault situated at the location where the Coulomb failure line intersects the Mohr circle, demonstrating that background stress is what caused the earthquake. The substantial fault instability and similarity between the solved and theoretical focal mechanisms make it easier to comprehend the loading effect of tectonic stress on the Luding earthquake fault.展开更多
The earthquake magnitude probability distribution is one of the underlying input data for certain earthquake analyses, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Nowadays, the method proposed by McGuire and Arabas...The earthquake magnitude probability distribution is one of the underlying input data for certain earthquake analyses, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Nowadays, the method proposed by McGuire and Arabasz (1990) is commonly used for obtaining the (simulated) earthquake magnitude probability distributions. However, based on the observed earthquake data in 5 regions (Taiwan, Japan, California, Turkey, and Greece), the model did not fit the observation well. Instead, all of the case studies show that using the newly proposed gamma distribution can improve the simulation significantly compared to the conventional method.展开更多
Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake...Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake forecasting experiments across CSEP testing centers(Schorlemmer et al.,2018).Over more than a decade,efforts to compare forecasts with observed earthquakes using numerous statistical test methods and insights into earthquake predictability,which have become a highlight of the CSEP platform.展开更多
In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence...In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recur- rence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and consid- ering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.展开更多
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFF0800601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U1939204).
文摘Two large earthquakes(an earthquake doublet)occurred in south-central Turkey on February 6,2023,causing massive damages and casualties.The magnitudes and the relative sizes of the two mainshocks are essential information for scientific research and public awareness.There are obvious discrepancies among the results that have been reported so far,which may be revised and updated later.Here we applied a novel and reliable long-period coda moment magnitude method to the two large earthquakes.The moment magnitudes(with one standard error)are 7.95±0.013 and 7.86±0.012,respectively,which are larger than all the previous reports.The first mainshock,which matches the largest recorded earthquakes in the Turkish history,is slightly larger than the second one by 0.11±0.035 in magnitude or by 0.04 to 0.18 at 95%confidence level.
基金supported by the Special Fund of the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration(Nos.DQJB2B28 and DQJB22X09)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52192675).
文摘Stochastic finite-fault simulations are effective for simulating ground motions and are widely used in engineering to determine the impacts of ground motion and develop relevant predictive equations.In this study,the source,path,and site amplification coefficient of western Sichuan Province,China,and stochastic finite-fault simulations were used to simulate the acceleration time series,Fourier amplitude spectra,and 5%damped response spectra of 28 strong-motion stations with rupture distances within 300 km of the 2022 MS6.8 Luding earthquake.The simulation results of 14 stations at rupture distances of 45-185 km match the observation.However,the simulation results of 3 near-and 6 far-field stations at rupture distances of 12-36 km and 222-286 km,respectively,were obviously deviated from the observations.Simulation results of the near-field stations are larger than the observations at high frequencies(>6 Hz).The discrepancy likely comes from the nonlinear site effect of near-field stations,which reduced the site amplification at high frequencies.Simulation result of the far-field stations is smaller than the observation at frequencies above 1 Hz.As these stations are located close to the Longmenshan Fault Zone(LFZ),thus,we obtained a new quality factor(Q)from data of historical events and stations located around LFZ.Using the new Q value,the discrepancies of the high-frequency simulation results of the far-field stations were corrected.This result indicated that the laterally varying Q values can be used to address the impact of strong crustal lateral heterogeneity on simulation.
基金the Central Publicinterest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund(2021IEF0501 and CEAIEF20220205)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42074100).
文摘On September 5,2022,at Beijing time 12:52 p.m.,an M_(S)6.8 earthquake struck Luding County,GarzêTibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province.The epicenter of the earthquake was at the intersection of the Sichuan-Yunnan,Bayankala,and South China blocks.The tectonic background is extremely complex,and strong earthquakes occur frequently.Based on a predetermined focal location and focal mechanism solution for the earthquake,we reversed the focal depth and rupture process of the earthquake by fitting the teleseismic P and SH waves recorded by the global seismic network.The results show that the focal depth is 16 km,with the main rupture having a length of about 45 km near the epicenter,with a maximum displacement of 1.02 m.Although the rupture mainly propagates from the north–northwest(NNW)to the south–southeast(SSE)along the fault strike,there is a small-scale rupture slip zone at shallow depths in the north–northeast(NNE)direction along the epicenter of the seismogenic fault.This rupture image corresponds to the cluster distribution of aftershocks in the NNW and SSE directions starting from the epicenter,corresponding to the distribution of recorded landslides.The earthquake occurred on the Moxi fault,located in the southeastern section of the Xianshuihe fault.The major tectonic feature in this area is the southeastward movement of the Chuandian block relative to the Bayanhar block.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U2039207 and 42004038)National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFE0109700)the Special Fund of the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration(No.CEAIEF2022030206).
文摘After the September 5,2022(Beijing time).Luding Ms6.8 earthquake(29.59°N.102.08°E.depth 16 km.according to the initial determination by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)).field investigation was carried out by the China Earthquake Administration(CEA).which associated the earthquake to the Moxi segment on the south part of the Xianshuihe fault system.This segment,with horizontal slip rate 5-10 mm/a.locates in the convergent part among the Xianshuihe fault.
基金supported by the Special Found of the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (DQJB22B18)
文摘To reveal the seismogenic mechanism of the Luding earthquake, we employed the 118 China Seismic Network stations to collect the P-wave polarity data from each station, which was then used in the P-wave first motion approach to calculate the focal mechanism solution of the M6.8 Luding earthquake that occurred on September 5,2022. We have also studied the loading effect of tectonic stress on the Luding earthquake fault based on the stress field data for the research area. The results indicate that this earthquake was a strike-slip type, the nodal plane I:strike 167°, dip angle 78°, slip angle 2°;Nodal plane II: strike 77°, dip angle 88°, slip angle 168°. The two fault planes’ instability coefficients of the Luding earthquake are examined considering the region’s background stress field’s condition. The nodal plane I in the Moho circle is discovered to practically coincide with the Coulomb failure line and the tangent point of the Moho circle, indicating that this nodal plane has a high instability coefficient compared to the nodal plane II. The conclusion is that the nodal plane I has a higher likelihood of being the seismogenic fault plane, which is congruent with the seismogenic fault plane suggested by the aftershock distribution, the earthquake radiation energy distribution of a single station, and seismic intensity distribution.The Luding earthquake’s focal mechanism is highly like the theoretical focal mechanism of the fault situated at the location where the Coulomb failure line intersects the Mohr circle, demonstrating that background stress is what caused the earthquake. The substantial fault instability and similarity between the solved and theoretical focal mechanisms make it easier to comprehend the loading effect of tectonic stress on the Luding earthquake fault.
文摘The earthquake magnitude probability distribution is one of the underlying input data for certain earthquake analyses, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Nowadays, the method proposed by McGuire and Arabasz (1990) is commonly used for obtaining the (simulated) earthquake magnitude probability distributions. However, based on the observed earthquake data in 5 regions (Taiwan, Japan, California, Turkey, and Greece), the model did not fit the observation well. Instead, all of the case studies show that using the newly proposed gamma distribution can improve the simulation significantly compared to the conventional method.
基金granted by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42004038)Earthquake Tracking Orientation Tasks of CEA(Grant No.2024020104)+1 种基金the Special Fund of IEFCEA(Grant No.CEAIEF2022030206)the China Scholarship Council(CSC)exchange program(Grant No.202204190019)。
文摘Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake forecasting experiments across CSEP testing centers(Schorlemmer et al.,2018).Over more than a decade,efforts to compare forecasts with observed earthquakes using numerous statistical test methods and insights into earthquake predictability,which have become a highlight of the CSEP platform.
基金Joint Seismological Science Foundationof China (103034) and Major Research ″Research on Assessment of Seismic Safety″ from China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan.
文摘In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recur- rence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and consid- ering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.
