Do farmers care about climate change? Evidence from five major grain producing areas of China

Using a logistic model,this paper empirically investigated farmers’perception of climate change and its determinants based on a field survey of 1 350 rural households across five major grain producing provinces in China.The results show:i)There is an apparent difference in perception levels for long-term temperature and precipitation changes.Specifically,57.4%of farmers perceived the long-term temperature change correctly,but only 29.7%of farmers perceived the long-term precipitation change correctly;ii)The factors influencing the farmers’perceptions are almost completely different between precipitation and temperature,the former are mostly agriculture related,while latter are mostly non-agriculture related,except for farm size;and iii)Farmers are not expected to pay more attention to long-term precipitation changes over the crop growing seasons,because less than 30%of farmers can correctly perceive long-term precipitation change.Therefore,to improve the accuracy of farmers’perceptions of climate change,the government is recommended to:i)enhance education and training programs;ii)speed up land transfer and expand household land farm size;iii)develop farmer cooperative organizations;iv)invest more in agricultural infrastructure,specifically in major grain producing regions;and v)improve the agricultural environment and increase farming income.

Agricultural Production Structure Optimization: A Case Study of Major Grain Producing Areas, China

A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.

Variation Character of Grain Yield per Unit Area in Main Grain-producing Area of Northeast China

Based on the surveys and the statistic data during 1980-2003, the variation character of grain yield per unit area in Northeast China and its main factors have been discussed by the methods of statistics and grey correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) the grain yield per unit area has been taking on an increasing trend in the recent 20 years. It increased from 2519.80kg/ha in 1980 to 4216.11kg/ha in 2003, with an increasing rate of 67.32%; 2) the variation of grain yield per unit area is considerably prominent and its range is also very great, with the maximal increase rate of 42.59% and maximal decrease rate of 21.13%, respectively, which are far above the whole Chinese average level; 3) the variation of main crops' yield per unit area is remarkable, which takes on the character that the yield of corn is much higher than that of soybean and rice; and 4) the grey correlation analysis shows that the most important factors impacting the variation of grain yield per unit area are the total power of agricultural machinery, the consumption of chemical fertilizer and effective irrigated area. However, the influence of natural disaster and income level should not be ignored. Effective ways to improve grain yield per unit area are to construct farmland improvement groundwork, reclaim the middle- and low-yield farmland, etc.

Study on Fluctuation of Grain Yield in China's Major Grain Producing Areas

By using the statistical data of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas from 1949 to 2008,and fluctuation theory,the historical process and main cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas are analyzed.The results of research show that the grain yield in China's major grain producing areas grows in unstable fluctuation,with high-frequency fluctuation cycle and regular length;the amplitude of fluctuation,on the whole,is moderate,with not strong stability;the fluctuation of grain yield has correspondence,reflecting the N-shape developmental trend of grain production at present;the fluctuation of grain yield has gradient characteristics;in the process of comparison of grain yield,the average growth rate annually of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is higher than that of the national average,but the relative fluctuation coefficient is also higher than that of the national average.From five aspects,namely natural disaster,agricultural policy,production input,grain price and grain circulation,the cause of fluctuation of grain yield in China's major grain producing areas is analyzed,and measures of preventing and arresting super-long fluctuation of grain yield are put forward.Firstly,stick to strict farmland protection system,and strive to promote farmland quality;secondly,strengthen infrastructure construction of grain production and beef up the ability of preventing natural disaster;thirdly,quicken the pace of agricultural technology and establish robust technology supporting system;fourthly,lay stress on innovation of agricultural organization system and provide implementation path and vehicle for application of agricultural technology measures;fifthly,perfect disaster precaution system and grain market system,and strengthen the ability of preventing risk of grain production.

Factors Influencing Large-scale Operation of Large Grain Farmers in Northeast China

With the grain yield accounting for 20% of the whole country, the north- east China is a strategic region for ensuring national grain security and also a most centralized region of large grain farmers. Through a sampling survey of large grain farmers in 15 counties and cities of northeast China, with the aid of SPSS and AMOS software, using multiple regression analysis and structural equation modeling, this paper made a quantitative analysis on the influence of the subjective and ob- jective factors of large grain farmers on their large-scale management. The results showed that the age structure, educational level, family operating capital, yield ex- pectation and protective farming awareness of large grain farmers are the positive factors influencing their large scale operation due to agricultural subsidy policy. By comparison, the number of agricultural machinery and equipment owned by family, regional labor force, expectation for future income, and expectation for contractual scale become negative factors influencing large-scale operation of large grain farm- ers because of agricultural policies. When the future expectation, self conditions, family endowment, and operation conditions of large grain farmers increase one unit, their large scale operation motivation will increase by 0.692, 0.689, 0.487 and 0.363 units respectively. Thus, increasing the future expectation and self conditions of large grain farmers is a key factor for promoting large scale operation of farmland.

Response of grain yield to plant density and nitrogen rate in spring maize hybrids released from 1970 to 2010 in Northeast China

The objective of this study was to identify the response of grain yield to plant density and nitrogen rate in spring maize hybrids released from 1970 to 2010 and grown extensively in Northeast China.Twenty-one hybrids were grown for 2 years in Northeast China at densities of 30,000,52,500,75,000,and 97,500 plants ha^(-1)and N application levels of 0,150,300,and 450 kg N ha^(-1).Irrespective of density or nitrogen application rate,grain yields both per plant and per unit area were significantly higher for newer than older hybrids.As plant density increased from 30,000 to 97,500 plant ha^(-1),yield per plant of 1970 s,1980 s,1990 s,and 2000 s hybrids decreased by 50%,45%,46%,and 52%,respectively.The response of grain yield per unit area to plant density was curvilinear.The estimated optimum plant densities were about 58,000,49,000,65,000,and 65,000 plants ha^(-1)for hybrids released in the 1970 s,1980s,1990 s,and 2000 s,respectively.The theoretical optimum densities for the hybrids released from the 1970 s to the 2000 s increased by 1750 plants ha^(-1)decade^(-1).Nitrogen fertilization significantly increased grain yields per plant and per unit area for all hybrids.The theoretical optimum N application rates for high yield for hybrids released in the 1970 s and 1980 s were about 280 and 360 kg ha^(-1),and the hybrids from the 1990 s and 2000 s showed highest yield at 330 kg ha^(-1)N.No significant difference in the grain yields of 2000 s hybrids between the N levels of 150 to 450 kg ha^(-1)was found.Significant yield gains per plant and per unit area were found,with average increases of 17.9 g plant^(-1)decade^(-1)and936 kg ha^(-1)decade^(-1)over the period 1970–2010,respectively.Yield gains were attributed mainly to increased yield per plant,contributed by increases in kernel number per ear and1000-kernel weight.The rates of lodging and barren plants of newer hybrids were significantly lower than those of older ones,especially at high plant density.

Dynamics of maize grain drying in the high latitude region of Northeast China

A high grain moisture content at harvest has been an important problem in the high latitude region of Northeast China, and it is closely related to the genotypes of varieties, local meteorological factors and planting management. However, delayed harvest at a low temperature could not effectively reduce the grain moisture content. In this study, we continuously observed the grain drying during the late stage of different maturing types of maize varieties in Daqing, Heilongjiang Province, China in 2016 and 2017. A two-segment linear model was used to analyze the different stages of the drying processes: 1) Twosegment linear model fitting can divide the grain drying process of all varieties into two separate linear drying processes with different slopes. 2) During the rapid drying stage, the drying was faster at a higher temperature. The rate of slow drying was influenced by air vapor pressure. 3) The moisture content and meteorological factors when the drying rate turns from one stage into the other were not consistent between varieties and years. After entering the frost period, temperatures below 0℃ will significantly reduce the rate of grain drying. 4) Due to the short growth period of early-maturing varieties, the drying time was prolonged, and the grain moisture content was lower than that of the mid-late maturing varieties. Local meteorological conditions do not allow the drying of mid-late maturing varieties to achieve a lower moisture content. When the temperature falls below 0℃, the drying rate of grain decreases markedly. Therefore, one feasible way to solve the problem of high moisture content is to replace the early-maturing varieties and implement the corresponding cultivation techniques.

Agricultural Ecological Zoning Plan of Old Industrial Bases in Liaoning Province, China

On the basis of brief description of current situation of old industrial bases and primary industry of Liaoning Province, the paper introduces the general situation of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province. First, the ecological bases of agricultural zoning plan are introduced through various topographic and geomorphic types, regional climate differences and imbalanced distribution of natural resources; Second, in accordance with the theory of comparative advantage, distribution of production and resource economics, on the basis of comprehensive evaluation of agricultural natural resources, with the principle of fully excavating economic function of different natural resources, and in order to improve allocation efficiency of the two resources of market and government, the formation of ecological zoning plan of agriculture in Liaoning Province is analyzed; Third, according to Regional Layout Planning of Characteristic Agricultural Products of Liaoning Province (2006-2010), the paper describes basic layout of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province. The policy support of agriculture-ecological zoning plan in Liaoning Province is analyzed from three aspects-support policy of functional zone major in producing grain, support policy of other characteristic agriculture-ecological zone and support measures of development of agriculture-ecological zone. The paper also analyzes experiences of agricultural development of old industrial bases in ecological zoning plan: First, agriculture-ecological zoning plan is a effective way of the revitalization of old industrial bases; Second, scientificity of plan is the basis of improving competitiveness of regional agriculture; Third, multi-input mechanism guiding by government is the key of agricultural packing effect; Fourth, integrated agricultural industrial chain is guarantee of realizing industrialization in ecological zone.

中国粮食主产区耕地利用效率区域差异及影响因素——基于179个地级市的实证研究

[目的]粮食主产区在实现粮食稳产保供中具有重要的战略地位。研究粮食主产区的耕地利用效率及其时空演变特征,旨在为促进粮食主产区耕地资源高效利用、保障粮食安全及实现农业可持续发展提供参考。[方法]创新性地运用两阶段动态网络DEA模型,测算粮食主产区2010—2020年179个地级市耕地利用效率,并通过ArcGIS可视化技术和核密度估计分析其时空演变特征,构建Tobit模型并探究耕地利用效率影响因素。[结果]2010—2020年粮食主产区整体效率水平呈“小幅下降—快速上升—波动增长”的阶段趋势,整体效率水平偏低,仍具有较大提升空间。分阶段来看,生产阶段效率水平始终高于消费阶段,且两阶段效率水平差距有进一步增大的态势;粮食主产区耕地利用效率提升受两阶段效率水平共同作用的影响,生产阶段是效率提升的主要动力,阻力来自于消费阶段效率。分区域来看,松花江流域>长江流域>黄河流域的耕地利用效率,区域不均衡性显著。从空间上来看,整体效率、生产阶段效率高值区呈东北—西南空间分布,并逐渐形成“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚的空间格局,消费阶段效率高值区呈离散化分布格局,并未呈现出向提升方向收敛的发展态势。整体、生产阶段和消费阶段的外部影响因素不尽相同,涉及社会经济发展水平、城乡发展水平、科技水平及农业基础设施建设。同时不同因素对不同区域的整体及各子阶段耕地利用效率作用强度及作用方向也存在显著差异。[结论]未来粮食主产区不但要探索区域差异化耕地利用路径,加强各地级市间合作,更要在提升生产阶段效率的同时,重点关注各地级市消费阶段效率提升收敛速度以及与生产阶段效率差距之间的协调。

气候变化对中国东北三省主要粮食作物影响研究综述

全球气候变化已经成为事实,并且导致全球粮食危机和饥饿风险增加。东北三省作为我国主要的粮食生产基地,对气候变化十分敏感。本文梳理了当前及未来气候变化对东北三省玉米、水稻和大豆生产影响的相关研究,概括了当前主要研究方法、东北三省主要作物对气候变化的响应以及应对措施,并进一步评述了当前主要研究方法和研究领域的不足:1)研究气候变化和极端气候事件对作物生长发育和产量影响的主要方法包括田间试验法、统计分析法以及作物模型法,其中田间试验法结果最直观,统计分析法可操作强、应用范围最广,作物模型法机理性强。2)东北三省气候变化明显,并且随着气候变化,干旱逐渐取代低温冷害成为当地主要灾害。3)气候变化对东北三省作物生产整体是有利的。气候变暖改善了东北三省热量资源,不仅使作物种植区域逐渐北移,作物品种也逐渐从早中熟向中晚熟转变。4)随着气候变暖不断加剧,未来东北地区作物应选择耐高温、抗旱和抗寒等抗逆性强的品种;加强农田水利设施建设,增强应对干旱洪涝灾害的能力;采用新的农业管理措施,保护土壤健康以及粮食生产安全。5)未来需要加强对CO_(2)补偿效应以及病虫害等的研究,加强对作物模型的完善,以更好地应对气候变化对粮食安全的不利影响。

粮食主产区产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展耦合协调评价——以东北地区为例

粮食主产区产业振兴是实现乡村振兴的基础与关键,对农业高质量发展具有显著影响。以粮食主产区东北地区为研究区域,采用耦合协调模型分析东北地区产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展的耦合协调发展水平,选用2014—2023年东北地区产业链供应链韧性相关数据,构建基于东北地区产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展的耦合协调度模型。结果表明,东北地区的产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展的耦合协调度由原来的轻微失调转变为目前的良好协调。基于此,提出构建协同发展共建共享机制与协同评价机制的建议,以期推动粮食主产区产业链供应链韧性与农业高质量发展深度耦合。

东北地区耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响评价

分析研究当前区域性耕地资源数量与质量的变化格局和态势,研究其耕地资源变化对粮食生产能力的影响,具有重要的理论和现实意义。以东北地区为例,利用"3S"技术,着重应用GIS空间分析优势,首先分层次开展耕地自然质量评价、耕地利用质量评价与耕地综合质量评价,分析耕地自然质量、耕地利用质量与粮食单产的关系,研究区域耕地数量变化引起的耕地综合质量空间分布变化;然后从耕地数量、耕地质量、作物种植制度等方面,探讨东北地区耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响。为本地区耕地资源可持续利用与管理,制定科学合理的粮食生产发展规划提供借鉴,为其他地区开展类似研究提供参考。

东北西部粮食生产时空格局变化及优化布局研究

利用2003~2013年东北西部各县市粮食生产统计数据,运用聚类分析、粮食贡献度和PSR模型方法,分析东北西部粮食生产格局变化及其影响因素,根据国家＂镰刀弯＂地区规划提出的玉米种植面积调减目标,对各县市具体调减值进行核算,得出以下主要结论。从2003年以来,粮食播种面积和产量明显向玉米、水稻两种作物集中,而相对低产的大豆所占比例明显下降;粮食生产格局发生明显变化,多数地区被以玉米为主的类型区取代。2003~2013年东北西部粮食增产主要归因于种植面积扩大,其次是粮食单产提高,受粮食作物结构影响较小。东北西部耕地生态安全评价值均小于0.6,处于不安全级至临界安全级阈值范围内,其中不安全级和较不安全级所占比重为97.01%,集中呈片状分布,亟待调整区域种植结构以提高耕地生态安全。东北西部玉米播种面积调减总目标为145.20万hm2,其中农牧交错带调减113.23万hm2,冷凉区调减31.97万hm2,调减地区主要集中在赤峰市、通辽市、兴安盟、吉林西部和辽宁西部地区的部分县市等玉米为主的类型区。东北西部各县市在调减玉米种植面积的过程中,应充分考虑耕地生态安全、农民的生计替代和利益补偿等问题,做到科学、合理、有序地调减玉米种植面积。

中国区域性耕地变化与粮食生产的关系研究--以东北地区为例

以东北地区为例,结合监测数据和农业统计数据,利用GIS技术分别开展耕地数量变化对粮播面积的影响分析、高中低产田内部各县粮食单产变化趋势分析、高中低产田内部耕地数量变化对粮食总产的影响以及粮食作物种植结构变化对粮食生产能力的影响评价与分析。结果表明:①东北地区耕地数量增加了188.8×104hm2,总体呈北增南减趋势;②粮播面积增加了162.67×104hm2,高产区的粮食单产多呈上升趋势,中产区的粮食单产稳中有升,低产区各县的粮食单产有增有减,但多数仍呈上升趋势;③高产田的粮食单产和低产田作物种植面积扩大促进了东北地区粮食总产的增加;④东北地区玉米生产进一步向吉林省集中,大豆、水稻、小麦向黑龙江集中,粮食生产的专业化、区域化趋势明显。

气候变化与东北地区粮食新增

气候变暖为东北地区粮食新增潜能带来机遇与挑战。东北地区气温升高,无霜期延长,作物生产潜力提高,作物栽培区域北移和扩大,粮食播种面积增加,加上东北地区现代农业高度发达,成为我国粮食新增潜力最大的地区。但极端天气频繁发生,部分地区有干旱趋势,为东北粮食新增带来不利影响。针对东北地区粮食外运困难,粮食加工转化能力薄弱,农业增收困难等问题,提出东北地区粮食安全发展的战略,即巩固提高粮食总产,稳定发展粮食出口,加快粮食调运,快速发展粮食加工,促进粮食转化,变粮食生产基地为粮食加工转化基地,变粮食主产区为农业经济发达地区。

东北地区农业应对气候变化的策略与措施分析

气候变化的影响与适应已经成为农业生产面临的现实而紧迫的问题。1956—2005年东北地区增温1.5℃,幅度明显高于全国平均水平,给作物生产带来复杂的影响。东北是重要的国家商品粮生产基地,对国家粮食安全起着重要作用。探讨区域层面上适应气候变化的能力建设更具有针对性和现实性。文章分析了近50a来东北地区气候变化的主要表现及其对农业生产的影响;针对气候变化过程中人类活动对土地利用和温室气体的影响,提出了东北地区适应和减缓气候变化的策略和措施,强调在农业生态、水资源利用、环境保护等多方面综合开展工作,积极采取行动,最终达到维护气候环境、充分利用气候资源的目的,为东北粮食生产安全、农业可持续发展做出贡献。

中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及东北商品粮基地的响应

依据近10年的统计数据和实地调研资料,运用区域差异分析方法,对中国粮食生产的区域格局变化特征及其规律进行探讨,研究表明:中国粮食产量总体呈增长态势,年均增长率为3.43%;粮食生产重心进一步由南方向北方和由东部向中部推移,北方和中部地区成为新的增长中心;粮食生产地域变化的差异明显,南北绝对差异和相对差异变化较大,八大产区和省区间变化较小。农业生产条件、技术、宏观经济环境和土地利用方式变化是粮食生产地域格局变化的主要原因。东北作为国家粮食安全战略性基地,应对全国粮食生产的地域变化趋势,必须加强商品粮基地建设。通过农业生态环境建设、农业结构调整、商品粮基地空间布局优化等举措,促进粮食生产,保障国家粮食安全。

籼粳稻杂交对中国东北粳稻品质的影响

从系谱分析,中国东北粳稻改良品种大多是籼粳稻杂交育成的,以生产上推广的中国东北粳稻与日本粳稻为试材,利用籼粳特异性InDel与SSILP标记分析籼稻血缘相对含量,以程氏指数法比较形态分化差异,同时测定10项主要稻米品质性状,分析籼稻血缘、形态分化与品质性状的关系。结果表明,中国东北粳稻在保持粳型遗传背景的同时引入了较多的籼型血缘,籼型位点频率平均为4.71%,显著高于日本粳稻的0.30%。中国东北粳稻12条染色体籼型位点频率差异很大,第5、第6、第10和第11染色体超过5%,最高的第5染色体达到9.83%,最低的第7染色体只有0.59%。籼型位点频率为辽宁(6.17%)>吉林(3.92%)>黑龙江(3.44%),辽宁显著高于吉林和黑龙江,而吉林与黑龙江差异不显著。程氏指数法分别将中国东北粳稻和日本粳稻判别为偏粳类型和粳型,穗颈维管束性状也有明显差异。日本粳稻碾磨品质明显优于中国东北粳稻。程氏指数与碾磨品质呈极显著正相关。籼型位点频率与碾磨品质和食味值呈极显著或显著的负相关,与垩白粒率呈极显著正相关,黑龙江品种垩白粒率和垩白度低是中国东北粳稻垩白性状总体低于日本粳稻的主要原因。

东北地区粮食生产与贸易分析

东北地区是我国重要的商品粮生产基地，粮食常年产量约为5500～7000吨，每年有大量粮食输出到国内外市场，其在我国粮食国内市场和出口市场上具有很强的竞争力，东北地区粮食生产在未来的发展中应该提高大豆和玉米的专用性，同时大力发展优质水稻种植，以适应国内外市场的需求。

东北平原粮食主产区公主岭市种植业系统的能值分析

应用生态经济系统能值分析理论与方法,以东北平原粮食主产区公主岭市为例,通过一系列的能值指标,定量分析了该县主要粮食作物玉米、大豆、水稻系统的能值流动,评价了该县这3种作物系统环境资源基础和经济特征,玉米、大豆和水稻的太阳能值转换率分别为1.95×104、4.98×104和3.59×104。结果表明:大豆的能值最高,水稻次之,玉米最低;总体而言,2002年吉林省公主岭市种植业系统的发展程度相对较高,提高系统的能值投入重点应是提高农业科技含量和可更新有机能值的投入及科学管理力度,才能使公主岭市种植业系统走上持续发展的轨道。