Italian Asset Managers＇ Behavior： Evidence on Overconfidence, Risk Taking and Gender

This paper offers new insights into the Italian mutual fund industry. Surveying Italian professionals, we do not only reveal typical gender differences but also detect divergence to their German counterparts. While disclosing Italian professionals＇ overly positive self-assessment in general, we find evidence for male overconfidence in particular--though without being accompanied by excessive control illusion of the own information level. Asset managers＇ risk taking reveals further differences： Italian female professionals do not only assess themselves as more risk averse than their male colleagues, they also prefer a more passive portfolio management compared to the level they are allowed to. Moreover, in a tournament scenario near the end of the investment period female asset managers do not try to become the ultimate top performer when they have outperformed their peer group so far. However, in case of underperformance, the risk of deviating from the benchmark makes especially female professionals willing to seize a chance of catching up. Overall, compared to their German counterparts, we find Italian asset managers to be slightly more risk averse. Matching bounded former results on Italian mutual funds, we discuss interdependencies as well as impact of our findings at the individual asset managers＇ level on trading activity, management style and performance.

The Mediating Effect of Digital Transformation on the Link Between Executive Overconfidence and Corporate Green Innovation

Green technological innovation is crucial for the manufacturing industry’s green transformation and sustainable development.This study examines the impact of executive overconfidence on corporate green innovation,focusing on the internal drivers of corporate innovation and using a sample of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2013 to 2020.We further examine the mediating role of digital transformation and the moderating role of external attention.The findings indicate that executive overconfidence promotes corporate green technological innovation.Overconfident executives enhance green innovation by accelerating digital transformation.Moreover,external attention from analysts and media positively moderates the relationship between executive overconfidence and corporate green innovation.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive impact of executive overconfidence on green innovation is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises,high-tech firms,and enterprises with lower pollution levels.

Network correlation between investor’s herding behavior and overconfidence behavior

It is generally accepted that herding behavior and overconfidence behavior are unrelated or even mutually exclusive.However,these behaviors can both lead to some similar market anomalies,such as excessive trading volume and volatility in the stock market.Due to the limitation of traditional time series analysis,we try to study whether there exists network relevance between the investor’s herding behavior and overconfidence behavior based on the complex network method.Since the investor’s herding behavior is based on market trends and overconfidence behavior is based on past performance,we convert the time series data of market trends into a market network and the time series data of the investor’s past judgments into an investor network.Then,we update these networks as new information arrives at the market and show the weighted in-degrees of the nodes in the market network and the investor network can represent the herding degree and the confidence degree of the investor,respectively.Using stock transaction data of Microsoft,US S&P 500 stock index,and China Hushen 300 stock index,we update the two networks and find that there exists a high similarity of network topological properties and a significant correlation of node parameter sequences between the market network and the investor network.Finally,we theoretically derive and conclude that the investor’s herding degree and confidence degree are highly related to each other when there is a clear market trend.

Overconfidence and the adoption of robo-advice:why overconfident investors drive the expansion of automated financial advice

Adaptive online platforms,powered by artificial intelligence,commonly referred to as robo-advice,steadily increase their market share.Yet these comparably new financial services are critically understudied.Little is known about why some investors adopt robo-advice for something as essential as asset allocation.The current paper tries to close this gap by shedding light on the causal effect of investor overconfidence on the propensity of using robo-advice.The study proposes a theoretical framework that combines the divergence of opinion hypothesis with consumer behavior insights and information technology diffusion research.The framework is empirically tested on the Investor Sample of the 2015 National Financial Capability Study,a subsample of 2000 US investors.The results from a series of generalized linear,structural,and semipara-metric models show that in a pre-chasm market,overconfident investors have a significantly higher propensity of adopting robo-advice.While higher financial literacy seems to decrease robo-advice uptake,unjustified confidence in one’s knowledge causally increases it.Willingness to take financial risk cannot account for the significantly increased adoption of robo-advice among overconfident investors.The findings help managers to better position robo-advice by offering behavioral insights into their user base.In addition,the results outline a managerial tool to take demand-side actions to increase the likelihood of an end-user innovation crossing the chasm.

Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior?Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach

Overconfidence behavior,one form of positive illusion,has drawn considerable attention throughout history because it is viewed as the main reason for many crises.Investors’overconfidence,which can be observed as overtrading following positive returns,may lead to inefficiencies in stock markets.To the best of our knowledge,this is the first study to examine the presence of investor overconfidence by employing an artificial intelligence technique and a nonlinear approach to impulse responses to analyze the impact of different return regimes on the overconfidence attitude.We examine whether investors in an emerging stock market(Borsa Istanbul)exhibit overconfidence behavior using a feed-forward,neural network,nonlinear Granger causality test and nonlinear impulseresponse functions based on local projections.These are the first applications in the relevant literature due to the novelty of these models in forecasting high-dimensional,multivariate time series.The results obtained from distinguishing between the different market regimes to analyze the responses of trading volume to return shocks contradict those in the literature,which is the key contribution of the study.The empirical findings imply that overconfidence behavior exhibits asymmetries in different return regimes and is persistent during the 20-day forecasting horizon.Overconfidence is more persistent in the low-than in the high-return regime.In the negative interest-rate period,a high-return regime induces overconfidence behavior,whereas in the positive interest-rate period,a low-return regime induces overconfidence behavior.Based on the empirical findings,investors should be aware that portfolio gains may result in losses depending on aggressive and excessive trading strategies,particularly in low-return regimes.

数字化转型的公司治理效应:基于管理层在职消费视角

以在职消费为切入点,选取2010—2021年A股上市公司作为研究样本,考察数字化转型的公司治理效应,实证检验发现企业数字化转型程度和在职消费之间存在倒U型关系。进一步研究发现,缓解信息不对称和管理层过度自信是其作用路径。当样本为非国有、聘请非四大会计师事务所出具审计报告、所属产品市场竞争程度较低、非制造业、非高科技行业、劳动密集型行业、位于互联网发展较快城市以及经济欠发达地区的企业时,两者的倒U型关系更显著。

Managerial Overconfidence and Debt Decisions

The application of behavioural theory to corporate finance is now attracting the attention of theoretical work. However, very little rigorous empirical work has been carried out to analyse the desirability of behavioural biases in relation to financing decisions. The main results argue that managerial overconfidence provides an alternative determinant of capital structure. However, many questions remain to be explored, related to overconfidence measures and positive/negative effects of managerial overconfidence. Our paper assumes that the combination of financial theory and behavioural theory leads to better explanatory power. We follow two complementary goals. Firstly, we examine the dynamic trade-off model introducing a behavioural perspective. Secondly, we propose extending the pecking order analysis to incorporate overconfidence in Shyam-Sunder and Myers＇s model. We use a sample of Tunisian firms and employ panel-data estimation procedures to account for endogeneity and spurious correlation issues. Our results confirm the assumption that manager confidence is positively related to debt level. Overconfident managers underestimate the probability of financial distress and will choose higher levels of debt than they would if they were ＂rational＂.

Research on Property Rights, Revenue Transparency and Equity Financing Costs ——Based on the Perspective of CEO Overconfidence

This paper takes the Chinese listed company with the equity refinancing qualification from 2012 to 2013 as the research object, and uses the residual revenue model to calculate the equity financing cost. This paper discusses the impact of the overconfidence of executives on the equity financing cost and its impact mechanism. The unique institutional background examines the differences in property rights characteristics. The research found that:(1) executive overconfidence has a negative impact on the cost of equity financing, executives tend to be overconfident, the higher the equity financing cost of the company;(2) the overconfidence of executives to state-owned enterprises compared to private enterprises The negative impact of financing costs is more significant;(3) in addition, this paper also examines the potential impact mechanism of executive overconfidence on the cost of equity financing. The quality of information disclosure and the risk of investor prediction have a mediating effect on the impact of executive overconfidence on equity financing costs.

数字化转型与企业ESG表现——基于媒体关注度与高管过度自信的双重视角

基于2017—2022年沪深A股制造业上市公司的面板数据,从媒体关注度和高管过度自信两个视角出发,实证研究上市公司数字化转型影响ESG表现的两条路径。相关数据研究表明:第一,数字化转型与企业ESG表现存在显著的线性相关关系;第二,高管过度自信会影响数字化转型对企业ESG表现的促进作用;第三,数字化转型通过媒体关注度影响企业ESG表现。稳健性检验结果表明,在考虑倾向得分匹配法、工具变量法、替换被解释变量等方法后,数字化转型对企业ESG表现的促进作用仍然成立。异质性分析结果表明,国有企业和大规模企业能更好地利用数字化转型,积极履行社会责任,帮助企业提升ESG表现,为企业实现高质量发展提供了指引。

过度自信下直播电商信用监管的随机演化分析

考虑过度自信和随机扰动对直播电商信用监管决策的影响,引入过度自信刻画主体行为特征,构建直播电商平台、直播商家、消费者三方参与的演化博弈模型,设计无过度自信、单一主体过度自信和多主体过度自信三类过度自信场景.进而,引入白噪声和It?随机微分方程建立随机动力系统.分析各要素对博弈策略演化的影响.研究发现,直播电商平台的过度自信对其积极监管策略选择有正向影响,商家和消费者的过度自信对其自律策略选择和监督策略选择有负向影响.随机扰动对平台、商家和消费者的策略选择均有负向影响,扰动强度越大,波动幅度越大,收敛速度越慢,且无过度自信场景下更显著.从影响商家自律策略选择的演化速度和变化程度来看,声誉机制调控优先级更高;其次,存在商家过度自信的场景下,增加对商家的失信惩罚效果更明显,反之,降低监管成本影响更显著.

高管过度自信与供应商关系:集中化还是多元化?

“十四五”规划以及党的二十大报告提出要重视产业链与供应链现代化水平,着力提升供应链韧性及安全水平。本文利用2003—2022年沪深A股上市公司数据,从“为公”和“为私”两个视角探究高管过度自信对企业供应商战略决策的影响。研究发现:(1)拥有过度自信高管的企业倾向于表现出集中的供应商关系,高管过度自信对供应商关系的影响“为私”视角占据主导;(2)集中的供应商关系是过度自信高管盈余管理行为的必然结果;(3)资源约束能够负向调节高管过度自信对供应商集中度的影响;(4)融资约束、经济政策不确定性、行业竞争程度能够正向调节高管过度自信对供应商集中度的影响。以上研究结论有助于探索影响企业供应商关系的前因,厘清企业供应商集中度较高的内在作用机理。

外汇衍生品监管与跨境投资企业信用评级——基于“企业层面外汇衍生品监管指数”的实证分析

“一带一路”倡议和“走出去”战略加速了外汇衍生品市场的发展,而加强外汇衍生品监管是市场平稳运行的重要保障。在创新性地构建“企业层面外汇衍生品监管指数”的基础上,基于2007—2019年中国跨境投资企业数据,实证检验了外汇衍生品监管对企业信用评级的影响及作用机制。研究发现,加强外汇衍生品监管能够有效提升企业信用评级,且主要通过减少企业违规行为、增强信息透明度和抑制管理者过度自信三种渠道提升信用评级。异质性分析表明,上述提升效果在国有企业中更大。进一步研究发现,加强外汇衍生品监管可以抑制企业信用评级的调整动机。因此,监管部门应优化衍生品监管法规,倡导套期保值原则,提高评级机构违规成本,提升衍生品交易信息透明度,进而促进外汇衍生品市场的健康发展。

基于双边道德风险的社区团购平台动态契约研究

基于社区团购模式中平台和团长之间的委托代理关系,构建了两阶段动态博弈模型,将社区团购平台的解聘补偿和团长的过度自信引入模型中,通过博弈推导和数值仿真给出两阶段最优动态契约设计,并分析这些因素对委托和代理方行为选择的影响,探讨其对双边道德风险的规制作用。结果表明:解聘补偿机制增加了社区团购平台的违约成本,降低平台道德风险。同时解聘倾向弱化了棘轮效应的负面影响,提高了团长第一期的努力程度,对团长第二期的努力程度没有直接作用,但会通过影响第二期的固定支付来影响双方的委托代理关系,对团长的道德风险起到间接规制作用。团长的过度自信倾向在一定程度上可以提高团长的努力程度,降低团长的道德风险,增加其收益。平台对团长资质和能力的动态修正可以影响团长的努力程度及其分成比例。因此,需要严把团长资质能力的早期识别,加强动态考核和定期培训以提升团长的业务能力和努力水平;同时设置合理的团长解聘补偿机制,完善动态激励契约;通过规制双边的道德风险,完善社区团购模式。

经济政策不确定性对盈余管理影响的实证研究——基于管理者行为的中介效应

当前,我国经济已进入新的发展阶段,经济政策不断调整,企业作为经济政策的接受者,要改变管理决策应对其所面临的不确定性,盈余管理则是其中一种。本文以2012—2021年中国非金融类上市公司为研究样本,在研究经济政策不确定性与盈余管理关系的基础上,探索了管理者行为在经济政策不确定性与盈余管理关系中的渠道作用。研究发现:经济政策不确定性显著提高了企业应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理的程度。在此基础上,经济政策不确定性通过管理者过度自信增加了企业的应计盈余管理;通过管理者代理行为增加了企业的真实盈余管理。

管理者过度自信对企业研发的影响——基于管理者丰富经历的调节效应与风险承担的中介效应

医药制造企业的研发活动与其自身战略及人民生命健康存在密不可分的关系,而管理者并非完全理性人,偏离理性的决策将直接影响企业的发展战略。本文基于2012—2021年我国A股医药制造业上市公司的实证分析,研究管理者过度自信与企业研发之间的关系,以及管理者研发经历、海外经历产生的调节效应,并分析管理者风险承担的中介效应。研究结果表明:管理者过度自信能促使医药制造企业进行项目研发;管理者研发经历与海外经历能调节两者之间的正相关关系;风险承担在两者关系中发挥中介作用。为提高行业竞争力,加速新药研制进程,药企应鼓励管理者敢于承担风险,进而促进企业研发。

风险投资与企业数字化转型——来自新三板中小企业的经验证据

采用2010—2020年新三板中小企业数据,实证检验风险投资对企业数字化转型的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:风险投资可以显著正向促进企业数字化转型;风险投资可以通过监督参与效应显著抑制管理者过度自信;管理者过度自信在风险投资对企业数字化转型的影响中发挥部分中介作用,风险投资可以通过抑制管理者过度自信进而正向促进企业数字化转型。经过稳健性检验,上述结论仍然成立,风险投资通过融资效应、非资本增值服务、监督参与效应正向促进中小企业数字化转型,可为发挥风险投资的作用并以此促进中小企业数字化转型提供了政策启示。

金融素养过度自信对城镇老人金融受骗的影响机制研究

随着人口老龄化的加剧,以及数字金融普惠的发展,老年群体金融受骗问题越来越成为社会关注的重点。文章利用2021年中国养老金融调查(CAFS)数据,基于行为金融理论,考察了金融素养过度自信对我国城镇老年群体金融受骗的影响机制。结果发现,金融素养过度自信的城镇老年人更容易遭受金融诈骗,遭受损失也更大;在金融素养过度自信和老年人金融受骗之间,风险态度这一变量发挥着部分中介作用;且养老规划起到了负向调节作用。基于此,文章对防止老年人遭受金融诈骗提出了针对性的建议。

金融素养自信偏差、风险态度与家庭股票市场参与——基于CHFS2019微观数据的实证分析

本文基于2019年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),研究金融素养自信偏差、风险态度与家庭股票市场参与的关系。研究发现,主观、客观金融素养及金融素养自信偏差都会提高居民股票市场参与的广度和深度。进一步区分金融素养自信偏差群体发现,相比金融素养评价中肯家庭,过度自信家庭显著偏好参与股票市场。调节效应分析发现,总体上风险态度在金融素养自信偏差对股票市场参与和配置股票资产占比中发挥了正向调节作用;风险态度强化了过度自信对家庭股票市场参与深度的促进作用,但没有显著削弱自信不足对家庭股票市场参与的抑制作用。异质性分析发现,风险态度与金融素养自信偏差的交互作用对非农户籍居民、高收入家庭、低学历家庭的股票市场参与会产生更为显著的正向影响。据此,本文提出强化居民的金融教育,同时提高投资者的风险认知水平,促使居民理性参与股票市场,推动城乡融合发展的政策建议。

治理主体对中国航空公司多元化干预研究

中国航空公司普遍采取多元化经营战略以应对市场波动,然而激进的多元化战略也会增加企业的财务风险。管理者、股东、债权人和政府作为治理主体在企业多元化战略的决策制定和实施过程中发挥着决定性作用,深入探究相关治理主体对企业多元化扩张的影响作用及其内在机制,对于理解中国航空公司过度多元化现象背后的成因以及找到有效的应对方法均具有重要意义。基于7家航空公司2015—2020年的数据分析发现,管理者对于企业经营状况和盈利能力的过度自信会促进航空公司在非航空业务方面的扩张,是引发航空公司过度多元化的重要原因;而政府的干预则可以有效抑制管理者过度自信对航空公司多元化扩张的促进作用。因此,有必要加强政府部门对航空公司的监管和干预能力以应对因管理者过度自信而造成的航空公司过度多元化问题。

制度环境、管理者过度自信对成本粘性影响研究

选取2018年至2021年沪深A股上市公司作为样本,研究管理者过度自信与成本粘性的关系,并进一步考察在不同市场化进程和法治水平的情况下,这种关系是否存在差异。实证结果表明:管理者过度自信可能会导致错误的成本决策,加剧公司成本粘性;而外部制度环境的改善能够在一定程度上缓解管理者过度自信造成的成本“粘性”加剧问题。这对于完善我国的职业经理人市场、强化对企业管理者的全面素质管理、改善绩效评估和薪酬管理体系、加强法律制度建设与人才培养具有深远的意义。