Exploring the impacts of major events on the systemic risk of the international energy market

This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.

An Assessment of Procurement Risks Management Systems in the Public Sector

Risk management in public procurement is a critical aspect that needs to be addressed in the public sector.Several studies have been conducted to understand the challenges and factors influencing risk management in public procurement.These studies have explored the importance of risk management principles,the role of political influence,and the need for effective risk assessment and anticipation.The research has also highlighted the need for specific risk management mechanisms and tools to be implemented in public procurement processes.Risk management reforms in the public sector are essential but often circumvented due to assorted reasons,such as political influence and the emergence of new risks.The research investigation employs a quantitative research design.A total of 380 questionnaires were recovered from respondents.The study showed that the public sector has a procurement risk management system that is effective,but there may be some areas for improvement in the prequalification process,onboarding process,and support provided to newly onboarded suppliers.Additionally,the public sector used some strategies to mitigate and control contract risks during the procurement process,but there were some areas for improvement in the review and lessons learned process,risk mitigation measures,contract monitoring and performance evaluation mechanisms,and communication and documentation process.Finally,the results suggest that there were constraints placed on the risk management strategies currently utilized by professionals working in the public sector.These constraints include insufficient support and buy-in from senior management and stakeholders,bureaucratic or administrative hurdles,inadequate policies and regulations,insufficient training and skill development opportunities,and insufficient resources.The study highlights the significance of tackling risk management in the realm of public procurement and offers valuable perspectives on avenues for enhancement,obstacles encountered by practitioners,and the necessity of thorough evaluation and revisions.Through the adoption of the suggestions originating from this study,governmental entities can improve their procurement risk management frameworks and guarantee improved adherence to risk management principles.

Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Identifying and Managing Technical Risks in the Process of Innovative Drugs Development in China

Objective To identify technical risks in the process of innovative drug development,and to provide reference for technical risk management so as to reduce the uncertainties and improve the efficiency of research and development.Methods The initial risk index was investigated by literature research.Then,the Likert scale was used to design a questionnaire,and the experts’opinion was used to analyze the risk factors affecting the different stages of the development of innovative drugs in China.Results and Conclusion Based on the analysis of questionnaire,31 risk indicators of five key stages in the development of innovative drugs from drug discovery to marketing authorization were established.The key risk indicators constructed in this study can provide reference for technology-related risk management in the process of innovative drug development.

Engineering complex systems applied to risk management in the mining industry

Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.

Managing Climate Change Risk in China's Agricultural Sector: The Potential for an Integrated Risk Management Framework

Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China, which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China＇s agricultural sector. Its main objectives are to identify the agricultural risks associated with climate change, to introduce a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management and to enumerate key adaptation strategies, challenges, and recommendations.

Systemic risk management and investment analysis with financial network analytics:research opportunities and challenges

Recent economic crises like the 2008 financial tsunami has demonstrated a critical need for better understanding of the topologies and various economic,social,and technical mechanisms of the increasingly interconnected global financial system.Such a system largely relies on the interconnectedness of various financial entities such as banks,firms,and investors through complex financial relationships such as interbank payment networks,investment relations,or supply chains.A network-based perspective or approach is needed to study various financial networks in order to improve or extend financial theories,as well as develop business applications.Moreover,with the advance of big data related technologies,and the availability of huge amounts of financial and economic network data,advanced computing technologies and data analytics that can comprehend such big data are also needed.We referred this approach as financial network analytics.We suggest that it will enable stakeholders better understand the network dynamics within the interconnected global financial system and help designing financial policies such as managing and monitoring banking systemic risk,as well as developing intelligent business applications like banking advisory systems.In this paper,we review the existing research about financial network analytics and then discuss its main research challenges from the economic,social,and technological perspectives.

Research on strategic risk identification method of equipment system development based on system dynamics

Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.

The Research on Establishing Construction Risk System in China

Through the analysis of our country＇s present construction risk management, the paper points out that the construction risk management system should be established on the construction insurance and guarantee, then puts forwards detailed countermeasures from six aspects, which consist of basic contents of establishing the construction insurance and guarantee system, issuing related laws which will speed up the implementing of the system, expediting the development of the agencies and market entities of the construction insurance and guarantee, establishing associations of the construction insurance and guarantee, enhancing government＇s support of imolementing the system.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

A hybrid decision support system with golden cut and bipolar q‑ROFSs for evaluating the risk‑based strategic priorities of fintech lending for clean energy projects

In the last decade,the risk evaluation and the investment decision are among the most prominent issues of efficient project management.Especially,the innovative financial sources could have some specific risk appetite due to the increasing return of invest-ment.Hence,it is important to uncover the risk factors of fintech investments and investigate the possible impacts with an integrated approach to the strategic priorities of fintech lending.Accordingly,this study aims to analyze a unique risk set and the stra-tegic priorities of fintech lending for clean energy projects.The most important contri-butions to the literature can be listed as to construct an impact-direction map of risk-based strategic priorities for fintech lending in clean energy projects and to measure the possible influences by using a hybrid decision making system with golden cut and bipolar q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets.The extension of multi stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis(M-SWARA)is applied for weighting the risk factors of fintech lending.The extension of elimination and choice translating reality(ELECTRE)is employed for con-structing and ranking the risk-based strategic priorities for clean energy projects.In this process,data is obtained with the evaluation of three different decision makers.The main superiority of the proposed model by comparing with the previous models in the literature is that significant improvements are made to the classical SWARA method so that a new technique is created with the name of M-SWARA.Hence,the causality analysis between the criteria can also be performed in this proposed model.The find-ings demonstrate that security is the most critical risk factor for fintech lending system.Moreover,volume is found as the most critical risk-based strategy for fintech lending.In this context,fintech companies need to take some precautions to effectively manage the security risk.For this purpose,the main risks to information technologies need to be clearly identified.Next,control steps should be put for these risks to be managed properly.Furthermore,it has been determined that the most appropriate strategy to increase the success of the fintech lending system is to increase the number of financi-ers integrated into the system.Within this framework,the platform should be secure and profitable to persuade financiers.

Reliability Study on the Risk Precontrol Management System of Coal Mines Safety

Risk precontrol management system of coal mines safety( RPMSCS) provides a set of preventive safety management strategy for high-risk coal industries, which has captured extensive attentions. Fundamentally,there are several membership systems with subsystems in the management system, and the subsystem reliability has an important influence on the management system performance. Through analyzing the structure characteristics of the management system,the phase type distribution was employed to analyze its subsystem reliability by considering repair process and three states including working,fail-abnormal,and fail-emergency states. The reliability indices of the subsystem were derived respectively,including the probabilities that the subsystem in three states,mean time to the first failure, mean time to first failemergency,mean working time to first fail-emergency,and mean maintenance time to the first fail-emergency, are derived respectively. The probabilities of the membership systems and the management system in three states were also derived. Some numerical examples were used to show the procedures. The result is important for better understanding the management system operation and improving its operational performance from the respect of system reliability.

Managing project risks and uncertainties

This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

The Construction of Risk Management Control System for Commercial Banks： From the Perspective of the Management Team

Risk management control （RMC） system is of vital importance to firms, especially the commercial banks. However, the existing models of risk management are always built from the perspective of financial regulators and neglect the practicability within the organization. In order to better facilitate the enterprise risk management （ERM）, this paper is trying to construct a new framework of RMC system from the standpoint of the management team. The foundations of our design are COSO ERM report, as well as multi-disciplinary theories and methods, such as economy, psychology, and behavior. We establish a three-component RMC system for commercial banks, which include setting RMC standards, monitoring RMC execution, and rewarding results from standards execution. Then, we introduce an extended three-factor RMC system model. This system and its extended framework are meaningful and referential for both theory and practice of commercial banks＇ risk management.

Research on the financial risk management system of listed corporations in China

In recent years, the number of the listing corporations in China is increasing, and the promotion of the national economic development is also more obvious. But in the process, because of the short time onto the market and the lack of the expvrience, some of the listed companies also cannot be compared with the enterprises in the western developed countries in a large extent. Especially in the aspect of the financial management, there are many defects. For example, the control efforts of the financial risks arc inadequate, and the awareness of the management personnel and the employees on the risks is weak, and so on In this case, the listed corporations must strengthen the management of the company＇s financial risks, develop the more comprehensive financial risk managernent system, and thus ensurc that the companies can have the healthy, stable and sustainable development.

Reformative Financial Risk Management Approach： A Multistage Decision Support System with the Assistance of Fuzzy Goal Programming and Expertons Method

The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been struggled for building up intensive financial risk management tools due to Basel II guidance on establishing financial self-assessment systems. In this respect, decision support system has a significant role on effectuating intensive financial risk management roadmap. In this study, a reformative financial risk management system is presented with the combination of determining financial risks with their importance, calculating risk scores and making suggestions based on detected risk scores by applying corrective actions. First, financial risk factors and indicators of these risk variables are selected and weights of these variables are specified by using fuzzy goal programming. After that, total risk scores are calculated and amendatory financial activities are appeared by means of expertons method which also provides possibilities of the alternative decisions. To illustrate the performance of integrated and multistage decision support system, a survey is applied on the end users.

Survey and Prospect for Applying Knowledge Graph in Enterprise Risk Management

Enterprise risk management holds significant importance in fostering sustainable growth of businesses and in serving as a critical element for regulatory bodies to uphold market order.Amidst the challenges posed by intricate and unpredictable risk factors,knowledge graph technology is effectively driving risk management,leveraging its ability to associate and infer knowledge from diverse sources.This review aims to comprehensively summarize the construction techniques of enterprise risk knowledge graphs and their prominent applications across various business scenarios.Firstly,employing bibliometric methods,the aim is to uncover the developmental trends and current research hotspots within the domain of enterprise risk knowledge graphs.In the succeeding section,systematically delineate the technical methods for knowledge extraction and fusion in the standardized construction process of enterprise risk knowledge graphs.Objectively comparing and summarizing the strengths and weaknesses of each method,we provide recommendations for addressing the existing challenges in the construction process.Subsequently,categorizing the applied research of enterprise risk knowledge graphs based on research hotspots and risk category standards,and furnishing a detailed exposition on the applicability of technical routes and methods.Finally,the future research directions that still need to be explored in enterprise risk knowledge graphs were discussed,and relevant improvement suggestions were proposed.Practitioners and researchers can gain insights into the construction of technical theories and practical guidance of enterprise risk knowledge graphs based on this foundation.

Factors affecting farmers'choice to adopt risk management strategies:The application of multivariate and multinomial probit models

This study investigates the factors that impact farmers'adoption of risk management strategies(RMS)in Pakistan during times of uncertainty.The study examines farmers'adoption of RMS using both multinomial probit(MNP)and multivariate probit(MVP).Data were collected from 382 farmers sampled from four districts in KhyberPakhtunkhwa(KP)province of Pakistan via a multistage sampling technique.This study utilizes the MNP model,considering the assumption of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives(IIA)and incorporating correlated error terms.The objective is to understand farmers'behavior in risky situations and determine if there is heterogeneity.Results are compared with the MVP model to assess robustness and gain deeper understanding of farmers'decisionmaking processes.The research findings reveal that our results are robust,and farmers behave homogeneously in various RMS scenarios.Farmers adopt RMS individually or in combination to mitigate the adverse effects of natural calamities on their livelihood.The risk-averse farmers,who perceive weather-related risks as a threat,access credits and information,and have farms close to a river are more likely to adopt RMS,irrespective of the format of the strategies available.Moreover,the predicted probabilities and correlation of the RMS and RM categories have strengthened our model estimation.These findings provide insights into the behavior of farmers in adopting RMS which are helpful for policymakers and stakeholders in developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of natural calamities on farmers.

A Heuristic on Risk Management System in Goods Transportation Model Using Multi-Optimality by MODI Method

Transport risk management is one of the predominant issues to any industry for supplying their goods safely and in time to their beneficiaries. Damaging goods or delaying the shipping both make penalty to the company and also reduce the goodwill of the company. Every way of transportation routes has to be comfy which can make sure the supplies will attain without damaging goods and in time and additionally cost efficiently. In this paper, we find a few not unusual risks which might be concerned about all types of way of routes which include Highway, Waterway, Airway, Railway and so forth. Additionally, we proposed a technique to attain multiple optimal solutions by using Modified Distribution Method (MODI) of a transportation problem. Finally, we reduce the risks by minimizing the possible number of transportation routes using multi-optimality technique of the transportation problem.

Conceptual Strategy for Mitigating the Risk of Hydrogen as an Internal Hazard in Case of Severe Accidents at Nuclear Power Plant Considering Existing Risks and Uncertainties Associated with the Use of Traditional Strategies

Hydrogen challenge mitigation stands as one of the main objectives in the management of severe accidents at Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Key strategies for hydrogen control include atmospheric inertization and hydrogen removal with Passive Autocatalytic Recombiners (PARs) being a commonly accepted approach. However, an examination of PAR operation specificity reveals potential inefficiencies and reliability issues in certain severe accident scenarios. Moreover, during the in-vessel stage of severe accident development, in some severe accident scenarios PARs can unexpectedly become a source of hydrogen detonation. The effectiveness of hydrogen removal systems depends on various factors, including the chosen strategies, severe accident scenarios, reactor building design, and other influencing factors. Consequently, a comprehensive hydrogen mitigation strategy must effectively incorporate a combination of strategies rather than be based on one strategy, taking into consideration the probabilistic risks and uncertainties associated with the implementation of PARs or other traditional methods. In response to these considerations, within the framework of this research it has been suggested a conceptual strategy to mitigate the hydrogen challenge during the in-vessel stage of severe accident development.