The Benefit Risk Assessment of Consumption of Marine Species Based on Benefit-Risk Analysis for Foods(BRAFO)-tiered Approach

Objective To assess the net health effect caused by the consumption of specific marine species based on Benefit-Risk Analysis for Foods （BRAFO）-tiered approach. Methods Twenty species were collected from the Zhoushan Archipelago, China. Concentrations of n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, methyl mercury （MeHg）, and dioxin-like compounds （DLCs） in the samples were analyzed for benefit risk assessment based on BRAFO-tiered approach. Results Based on the BRAFO-tiered approach, reference scenario （no intake） and alternative scenario （intake of specific species of 200 g/week） were determined. The exposure to MeHg/DLCs via alternative scenario of all studied species did not exceed provisional tolerable weekly/monthly intake. However, the adult population with high DLCs exposure in China would significantly exceed the upper limit of DLCs via an additional alternative scenario of some species such as Auxis thazard. The results of deterministic computation showed that alternative scenario of all studied species generated clear net beneficial effects on death prevention and child IQ gain. Conclusion The alternative scenario of all studied species could be recommended to population with average DLCs exposure, and the reference scenario of species with relatively high DLCs concentration could be recommended to population exposed to high DLCs.

Trends and hotspots in gastrointestinal neoplasms risk assessment: A bibliometric analysis from 1984 to 2022

BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal neoplasm(GN)significantly impact the global cancer burden and mortality,necessitating early detection and treatment.Understanding the evolution and current state of research in this field is vital.AIM To conducts a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of publications from 1984 to 2022 to elucidate the trends and hotspots in the GN risk assessment research,focusing on key contributors,institutions,and thematic evolution.METHODS This study conducted a bibliometric analysis of data from the Web of Science Core Collection database using the"bibliometrix"R package,VOSviewer,and CiteSpace.The analysis focused on the distribution of publications,contributions by institutions and countries,and trends in keywords.The methods included data synthesis,network analysis,and visualization of international collaboration networks.RESULTS This analysis of 1371 articles on GN risk assessment revealed a notable evolution in terms of research focus and collaboration.It highlights the United States'critical role in advancing this field,with significant contributions from institutions such as Brigham and Women's Hospital and the National Cancer Institute.The last five years,substantial advancements have been made,representing nearly 45%of the examined literature.Publication rates have dramatically increased,from 20 articles in 2002 to 112 in 2022,reflecting intensified research efforts.This study underscores a growing trend toward interdisciplinary and international collaboration,with the Journal of Clinical Oncology standing out as a key publication outlet.This shift toward more comprehensive and collaborative research methods marks a significant step in addressing GN risks.CONCLUSION This study underscores advancements in GN risk assessment through genetic analyses and machine learning and reveals significant geographical disparities in research emphasis.This calls for enhanced global collaboration and integration of artificial intelligence to improve cancer prevention and treatment accuracy,ultimately enhancing worldwide patient care.

Penetration Study of Key Technologies for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

In recent years,with the frequent occurrence of cyber security incidents,people have paid more attention to it.Information security risk assessment is a very important research topic.This paper gives a brief overview of the theory of cybersecurity risk assessment,focuses on the description of the current mainstream cybersecurity risk assessment methods,classifies and compares the existing methods according to the nature of the methods,and analyses the advantages,disadvantages,and application scope of each method.Finally,the main factors affecting the evaluation results are summarized and refined,and future research hotspots in this field are proposed.Through the empirical analysis of the three factors,the influence of the correlation of the three factors,the uncertainty of the evaluation indexes,and the timeliness of the evaluation on the evaluation results are concluded,which provides a reference for future research on evaluation methods.

Risk Assessment of Marine Environments Along the South China Sea and North Indian Ocean on the Basis of a Weighted Bayesian Network

Marine environments have a considerable influence on the construction of the Chinese 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.Thus,an objective and quantitative risk assessment of marine environments has become a key problem that must be solved urgently.To deal with the uncertainty in marine environmental risks caused by complex factors and fuzzy mechanisms,a new assessment technique based on a weighted Bayesian network(BN)is proposed.Through risk factor analysis,node selection,structure construc-tion,and parameter learning,we apply the proposed weighted BN-based assessment model for the risk assessment and zonation of marine environments along the Maritime Silk Road.Results show that the model effectively fuses multisource and uncertain envi-ronmental information and provides reasonable risk assessment results,thereby offering technical support for risk prevention and disaster mitigation along the Maritime Silk Road.

The Pollution Character Analysis and Risk Assessment for Metals in Dust and PM_(10) around Road from China

INTRODUCTION In recent years, with the gradual improvement of road construction, the rapid increase of the number of motor vehicles, vehicle emissions and the current poor vehicle performance, poor vehicle maintenance, higher emission factor and so on, air pollution caused by the traffic issues becomes the focus of people attention. The harmful substances are gradually accumulated to atmosphere particles surrounding roads due to dust particles （soil dusts, road dusts, construction dusts）, coal emissions, industrial emissions, vehicle emissions, biomass burning, secondary particles, which has a certain harmful influence to the atmosphere, soil and plants surrounding roads.

Sensitive Resource and Traffic Density Risk Analysis of Marine Spill Accidents Using Automated Identification System Big Data

This study developed a new methodology for analyzing the risk level of marine spill accidents from two perspectives,namely,marine traffic density and sensitive resources.Through a case study conducted in Busan,South Korea,detailed procedures of the methodology were proposed and its scalability was confirmed.To analyze the risk from a more detailed and microscopic viewpoint,vessel routes as hazard sources were delineated on the basis of automated identification system(AIS)big data.The outliers and errors of AIS big data were removed using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm,and a marine traffic density map was evaluated by combining all of the gridded routes.Vulnerability of marine environment was identified on the basis of the sensitive resource map constructed by the Korea Coast Guard in a similar manner to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration environmental sensitivity index approach.In this study,aquaculture sites,water intake facilities of power plants,and beach/resort areas were selected as representative indicators for each category.The vulnerability values of neighboring cells decreased according to the Euclidean distance from the resource cells.Two resulting maps were aggregated to construct a final sensitive resource and traffic density(SRTD)risk analysis map of the Busan–Ulsan sea areas.We confirmed the effectiveness of SRTD risk analysis by comparing it with the actual marine spill accident records.Results show that all of the marine spill accidents in 2018 occurred within 2 km of high-risk cells(level 6 and above).Thus,if accident management and monitoring capabilities are concentrated on high-risk cells,which account for only 6.45%of the total study area,then it is expected that it will be possible to cope with most marine spill accidents effectively.

Risk Assessment and Optimisation of Blast Mitigation Strategies for Design and Strengthening of Built Infrastructure

A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure, and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis, the procedure can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies. The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which, when subjected to blast loading, has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants. Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios. The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling, glazing response and glazing failure criteria. Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building. The paper shows an illustrative example of how this information, when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria, can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.

Safety Risk Assessment of Overturning Construction of Towering Structure Based on Cloud Matter–Element Coupled Model

Rapid urbanization has led to a surge in the number of towering structures,and overturning is widely used because it can better accommodate the construction of shaped structures such as variable sections.The complexity of the construction process makes the construction risk have certain randomness,so this paper proposes a cloudbased coupled matter-element model to address the ambiguity and randomness in the safety risk assessment of overturning construction of towering structures.In the pretended model,the digital eigenvalues of the cloud model are used to replace the eigenvalues in the matter–element basic element,and calculate the cloud correlation of the risk assessment metrics through the correlation algorithm of the cloud model to build the computational model.Meanwhile,the improved hierarchical analysis method based on the cloud model is used to determine the weight of the index.The comprehensive evaluation scores of the evaluation event are then obtained through the weighted average method,and the safety risk level is determined accordingly.Through empirical analysis,(1)the improved hierarchical analysis method based on the cloud model can incorporate the data of multiple decisionmakers into the calculation formula to determine theweights,which makes the assessment resultsmore credible;(2)the evaluation results of the cloud-basedmatter-element coupledmodelmethod are basically consistent with those of the other two commonly used methods,and the confidence factor is less than 0.05,indicating that the cloudbased physical element coupled model method is reasonable and practical for towering structure overturning;(3)the cloud-based coupled element model method,which confirms the reliability of risk level by performing Spearman correlation on comprehensive assessment scores,can provide more comprehensive information of instances compared with other methods,and more comprehensively reflects the fuzzy uncertainty relationship between assessment indexes,which makes the assessment results more realistic,scientific and reliable.

A practical approach for seismic risk assessment of underground structures:A case study of Iranian subway tunnels

Active geological and young faulted zones have made Iran's territory one of the most seismological active areas in the world according to recent historical earthquakes.Some of the deadliest earthquakes such as Gilan 1990 and Kermanshah 2018 caused tens of thousands fatalities.If such violent earthquakes affect strategical structures of a country,indirect losses would be more concerning than direct losses.Nowadays there is no doubt about the vital role of tunnels and underground structures in urban areas.These facilities serve as nonstop functional structures for human transportation,water and sewage systems and underground pedestrian ways.Any external hazard subjected to underground spaces,such as earthquake could directly affect passenger's lives and significantly decrease whole system reliability of public transportation.Commonly two earthquake levels of intensities,Maximum Design Earthquake(MDE)and Operating Design Earthquake(ODE)were used in seismic design of underground structures.However,uncertain nature of earthquakes in terms of frequency content,duration of strong ground motion,and level of intensity indicate that only the two levels of earthquake(ODE and MDE)cannot cover the all range of possible seismic responses of structures during a probable earthquake.It is important to evaluate the behavior of tunnel under a wide range of earthquake intensities.For this purpose,a practical risk-based approach which is obtained using the total probability rule was used.This study illustrates a framework for evaluation seismic stability of tunnels.Urban railway tunnels of Tehran,Shiraz,Ahwaz,Mashhad,Isfahan and Tabriz were considered as study cases.Nominal value of seismic risk for three main damage states,including minor,moderate and major were calculated.

Non-parametric Statistical Analysis and Spatial Distribution of the Regional Geochemical Data of the Okiep Copper District,Namaqualand,South Africa:Implications for Anthropogenic Influence and Risk Assessment

The Okiep Copper District is the oldest mining district in South Africa with a legacy of more than 150 years of mining.This legacy can be felt in the presence of large tailings dams scattered throughout the area.These tailings have a deleterious impact on the surrounding environment.To use geochemical methods in determining the scale of the impact, pre-mining background levels need to be determined. This is especially difficult in areas for which

Introduction of New Method on Engineering Risk Assessment:Engineering Errors and Effects Analysis(3EA)

Construction and commissioning accidents investigation shows that engineer’s errors in basic and detailed phases are the main causes.It will be gained more efficiency of investment when a relevant method is applied for error identification and risk assessment in basic and detailed phases.Most of risk assessment methods are related to construction phase,meanwhile hidden risks that were happen in previous phases cannot be found by these methods.Although HAZOP study can be applied in detail phase but it can help to find process defections.Importance of identifying risks in basic and detailed phases is to apply preventive actions against birth and grows risks.This risk assessment method can reduce costs and improve environmental protection,safety,and reliability of designs.The main purpose of this study is to identify engineer’s errors and analyse their HSE effects.The method is applied in seven oil and gas engineering projects in Iran,raising the level of engineer’s attention to safety precautions and environmentally-friendly design,reducing the cost of improving the level of safety and environmental protection,improving environmental protection,safety,and design reliability,and improving procedures related to design process and control have been achieved.

Towards Development of a Security Risk Assessment Model for Saudi Arabian Business Environment Based on the ISO/IEC 27005 ISRM Standard

Security risk assessment refers to the process of identifying, analyzing, and evaluating potential security risks for an organization. An organization’s assets, personnel, and operations are protected through it as part of a comprehensive security program. Various security assessments models have been published in the literature to protect the Saudi organization’s assets, personnel, and operations. However, these models are redundant and were developed for specific purposes. Hence, the comprehensive security risk assessment model used to safeguard Saudi organizations’ assets, personnel, and operations is still omitted. Using a design science methodology, the objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive security risk assessment model called CSRAM to assess security risks in Saudi Arabian organizations based on the International Organization for Standardization and the International Electrotechnical Commission/Information security risk management (ISO/IEC 27005 ISRM) standard. CSRAM is made up of six stages: threat identification, vulnerability assessment, risk analysis, risk evaluation, risk treatment, and monitoring and review of the risk. The stages have many activities and tasks that need to be accomplished at each stage. Based on the results of the validation of the completeness of the CSRAM, we can say that the CSRAM covers the whole ISO/IEC 27005 ISRM standard, and it is complete.

Multi-mycotoxin exposure and risk assessments for Chinese consumption of nuts and dried fruits

In this study, 15 mycotoxins were detected in 233 nut and dried fruit samples from China. The 15 mycotoxins included aflatoxins （AFs： AFB1, AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2）, trichothecene toxins （TCs： T-2, ZEA, ENA, ENA1, ENB, ENB1 and BEA）, Alternaria toxins （ATs： TEN, AOH and AME） and ochratoxin A （OTA）. The mycotoxins were detected in 47.6% of the samples and all 15 of the mycotoxins were found. Two samples were positive for AFB1 and exceeded the maximum tolerable levels allowed in China. The contamination levels of the mycotoxins found in nuts, dried jujubes, raisins, dried figs and dried Iongans were in the ranges of 0.1-462.7, 0.2-247.3, 0.8-10.1,0.2-384.1 and 0.1-89.2 μg kg^-1, respectively. Dried figs （80.0%） had the highest incidence of mycotoxins, followed by dried Iongans （60.0%）, dried jujubes （57.1%）, nuts （43.6%） and raisins （26.7%）. The estimated daily intake （EDI） values of each individual mycotoxin and all of the mycotoxins collectively were calculated by both the deterministic approach （DA） and the probability approach （PA）. For risk characterization, dietary exposure to TCs, ATs and OTA through consumption of nuts and dried fruits according to both approaches, showed no health risk to Chinese adults by exposure to either individual mycotoxins or in combination. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work in which risk assessment of multimycotoxins is performed, specifically including the emerging ENNs and BEA, in nuts and dried fruits of China.

Landslide Hazard and Risk Assessment on the Northern Slope of Mt. Changbai, China

Landslide hazard and risk assessment on the northern slope of Mt. Changbai, a well-known tourist attraction near the North Korean-Chinese border, are assessed. This study is divided into two parts, namely, landslide hazard zonation and risk assessment. The 1992 Anbalagan and Singh method of landslide hazard zonation （LHZ） was modified and used in this area. In this way, an Associative Analysis Method was used in representative areas to get a measure for controlling factors （slope gradient, relative relief, vegetation, geology, discontinuity development, weak layer thickness and ground water）. For the membership degree of factor to slope failure, the middle range of limited values was used to calculate LHZ. Based on an estimation of the potential damage from slope failure, a reasonable risk assessment map was obtained using the relationship of potential damage and probable hazard to aid future planning and prediction and to avert loss of life.

Multimedia health risk assessment:A case study of scenario-uncertainty

Assisted by framework of multimedia total exposure model for hazard waste sites(CalTOX),potential influences of scenario-uncertainty on multimedia health risk assessment(MHRA) and decision-making were quantitatively analyzed in a primary extent under the Chinese scenario case by deliberately varying the two key scenario-elements,namely conceptual exposure pathways combination and aim receptor cohorts choice.Results show that the independent change of one exposure pathway or receptor cohort could lead variation of MHRA results in the range of 3.6×10-6-1.4×10-5 or 6.7×10-6-2.3×10-5.And randomly simultaneous change of those two elements could lead variation of MHRA results at the range of 7.7×10-8-2.3×10-5.On the basis of the corresponding sensitivity analysis,pathways which made a valid contribution to the final modeling risk value occupied only 16.7% of all considered pathways.Afterwards,comparative analysis between influence of parameter-uncertainty and influence of scenario-uncertainty was made.In consideration of interrelationship among all types of uncertainties and financial reasonability during MHRA procedures,the integrated method how to optimize the entire procedures of MHRA was presented innovatively based on sensitivity analysis,scenario-discussion and nest Monte Carlo simulation or fuzzy mathematics.

Input characteristics and risk analysis of ballast water from offshore entry ships in China

Large quantities of ballast water discharge from ocean going ships in sea ports of China is one of the important factorswhich cause the spread of aquatic nonindigenous harmful species isolated geographically by waters,the deteriorating environment of the near-shore water area and the frequent outbreaks of red tides.In this paper,the total amount of the ballast water input estimation model for entry ships in Chinese ports was established.The information of foreign trade shipping and the import and export goods released publicly by the State Department of Transportation and the State General Administration of Customs were investigated.And then,the input features and its ecological environment risk of ballast water in China's offshore entry ships from2007to2012were analyzed based on the established total input amounts of ballast water from entry ships to Chinese sea ports together with the ballast water input ratio of the five major port-groups in China.The results show that:the total ballast water input amounts from entry ships of the five major port-groups in China are extremely imbalanced.The most developed Yangtze River Delta in economy has the biggest total ballast water input amounts,103.61million tons in2012.The second is the Circum-Bohai Sea Region(73.66million tons)and the third is the Pearl River Delta(67.24million tons).The total ballast water input amounts of the northwest and the southwest coastal areas are less,only16.57and5.71million tons respectively.The large quantity of entry ships’ballast water discharge has been an enormous threat to ecological environment of our country's sea areas,especially to economically developed regions.

Risk Assessment,Management and Application in Nuclear Power Plant Operation

To introduce the basic concepts of technical specification of nuclear power plant,a risk assessment and management technique based on the probabilistic safety analysis( PSA) method was proposed. The risk-informed method was used,and an example was given to show how to use some specific risk metrics like CDF / LERF /ICDP / ILERP to analyze and manage the risk associated with activities in nuclear power plant operation. The advantage of this technique can be concluded from this paper,and this technique should be used more widely and deeply in nuclear industry.

Seasonal variations and health risk assessment of trace elements in the Badigad River,lesser Himalayas,Nepal

The consumption of contaminated river water can have severe effects on human health.This study aims to investigate the trace elements(TEs)content and their health risk assessment in the Badigad River Basin in the lesser Himalayas of Nepal.In total,44 water samples were collected from 22 different sites during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons,and 25 TEs were analyzed.Correlation matrix and principal component analysis(PCA)were used to analyze the potential relationship between the measured TEs and their source tracking.Furthermore,the water quality index(WQI),metal index(MI),and cancer index(CI)were evaluated.The TEs content in all samples were found to be within the WHO recommended guideline for drinking and domestic purposes.The dominancy order of the TEs was observed as Sr>Ba>Li>Rb>Zn>Cr>Sc>Mn>Ti>Cu>As>Ni>Co>U>V>Pb>Cs>Ga>Y>Tl>Th>Zr>Bi>Cd>Nb.The PCA analysis suggested that TEs could have natural,anthropogenic,and mixed origins.The WQI indicated that the river water is safe from a human health perspective.The MI suggested that Badigad River can be considered safer for drinking purposes,and the cancer index(CI)showed that all the reported TEs are at low-risk levels.The findings of this study could be useful for government agencies in developing more sustainable water management policies in the region.However,it is suggested that further investigations should be conducted in terms of other hydrogeochemical variables,including major ions,at spatiotemporal levels for the sustainability of the river basin.

Over-limit risk assessment method of integrated energy system considering source-load correlation

In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.

Study on the Features and Risk Assessment of Drought in Guilin

Based on the precipitation data of all counties in Guilin from 1957 to 2010, the analysis has been made on the features of spatial and temporal distribution, the probability of occurrence and the periodic change of drought in Guilin. Afterwards, by using the method of disaster risk assessment, the disaster-causing factors, breed disasters environment and fragility of hazard-bearing body of Guilin drought have been analyzed, and the comprehensive evaluation on drought disaster has been made. The results show that above medium drought in Guilin mainly appeared in au- tumn, followed by winter, while Guilin only suffered from slight drought in spring; the principal period of drought occurrence in Guilin was six years, while its secondary period was two years; on the whole, drought risk was high in the southeast and low in the northwest.