Prospect Theory Based Hesitant Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Low Sulphur Fuel of Maritime Transportation

The environmental impact of maritime transport has now become a relevant issue in sustainable policy formulation and has attracted increasing interest from academia.For the sustainable development of maritime transport,International Maritime Organization stipulates that the sulfur content of ship emissions will reach 0.5 from 2020.With the approaching of the stipulated implementation date,shipowners need to adopt scientific methods to make decision on low sulfur fuel.In this study,we applied a prospect theory based hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model to obtain the optimal decision of low Sulphur marine fuel.For this purpose,the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix is established to collect expert opinions,the maximizing deviation method is adopted to determine criteria weights.According to calculate the Euclidean distance from the reference points,we obtain the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives.Lastly,a case study is carried out to illustrate the significance and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.The innovation of this study is that it is the first-time adopting prospect theory and hesitate fuzzy sets to multi-criteria decision making for low Sulphur marine fuel,which provides an effective decision model for shipping companies under Low Sulphur regulations,and can also be extended to other industries.

A multi-layer modelling approach for mining versatile ports of a global maritime transportation network

International ports play critical roles in maintaining transportation flows and sustaining the effectiveness of global maritime logistics.Although the concept of versatile ports has been introduced to represent the specific patterns that these ports play at the regional and global levels,there is still a need for the design and development of computational approaches that support these notions.This paper introduces a flexible multi-layer network approach for an international maritime network whose interest is that it offers a flexible model that favours the identification of the different transportation flows and versatile ports.The model is complemented by a series of structural indices complemented by a new overlap measure that evaluates the specific role of a given port across various transportation trades.The whole approach is implemented and experimented with using massive AIS maritime data that supports the automatic generation of the multi-layer network,and derivation of the structural measures while maintaining a flexible view of the maritime network.The experiments applied to the global maritime transportation network identify key versatile ports and highlight significant differences at the regional and trade flow levels.

Emerging approaches applied to maritime transport research:Past and future

Maritime transport is the backbone of international trade and globalization.Maritime transport research can be roughly divided into two categories,namely the shipping side and the port side.Most of the classic approaches adopted to address practical problems in these research topics are based on long-term observations and expert knowledge,while few of them are based on historical data accumulated from practice.In recent years,emerging approaches,which we refer to as machine learning and deep learning techniques in this essay,have been receiving a wider attention to solve practical problems.As a relatively conservative industry,there are some initial trials of applying the emerging approaches to solve practical problems in the maritime sector.The objective of this essay is to review the application of emerging approaches to maritime transport research.The main research topics in maritime transport and classic methods developed to solve them are first presented.The introduction of emerging approaches and their suitability to be applied in maritime transport research is then discussed.Related existing studies are then reviewed according to problem settings,main data sources,and emerging approaches adopted.Challenges and solutions in the process are also discussed from the perspectives of data,model,users,and targets.Finally,promising future research directions are identified.This essay is the first to give a comprehensive review of existing studies on developing machine learning and deep learning models together with popular data sources used to address practical problems in maritime transport.

Numerical Modeling of Air Pollutants Emitted by Waterway Transportation

The world maritime transportation is suffering a large increase in recent years and as a result of this increased on global trade, there is a consequent increase in waterway transportation and demand for fossil fuels, resulting in emissions of air pollutants. Consequently, the impact of transport emissions on climate change was put on the list of priorities. It has a high fuel demand as a result of continuous use of main engines for propulsion, electricity and heat production. The highest exposure levels of air pollution are found in ports and near them because most of the world fleet is positioned in these areas. The port of Rio de Janeiro city, in the Southeast Brazilian coastal, is inserted in the Guanabara Bay (GB), where the breezes recirculate pollutants in Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro (MRRJ). Therefore, the aim of this research was to use the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) to generate the wind fields in the MRRJ and to calculate the trajectories of pollutants emitted on GB related to the waterway transportation, using a 3D kinematic trajectories model. Results demonstrated that for the periods analysed, the Central and west areas in the coastal region of the Rio de Janeiro city were the local most affected in the summer. In winter the trajectories reached the cities of the Rio de Janeiro and Duque de Caxias. Both in summer and winter, the trajectories followed towards the South Atlantic Ocean in the morning. Conclusions about this study show the need of decision-making process for better management of waterway transportation sector, improving the harmful effects on air quality in cities located in coastal regions.

海事能源转型:未来燃料和未来排放

The lifecycle greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions(Well-to-Wake)from maritime transport must be reduced by at least 50%in absolute values by 2050 to contribute to the ambitions of the Paris Agreement(2015).A transition from conventional fuels to alternative fuels with zero or lower GHG emissions is viewed as the most promising avenue to reach the GHG reductions.Whereas GHG and toxic pollutants emitted from the use of fossil fuels(heavy fuel oil(HFO)and marine gas/diesel oil(MGO/MDO))are generally well understood,the emissions associated with the new fuel options are only now being measured and communicated.This review provides an outlook on fuels that could help shipping respond to the decarbonization effort including Liquefied Petroleum Gas(LPG),Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG),methanol,ammonia,and hydrogen.A quantification of the pollutants associated from the use of these fuels is provided and challenges and barriers to their uptake are discussed.

集装箱船双燃料发动机投资的环境与经济评价

In this study,environmental and economic examinations of Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG)investments are conducted.A year-long noon report data is received from a container ship and LNG conversion is performed.Savings from both the fuel expenses and the amount of the emissions are calculated and presented.To eliminate the fuel consumption uncertainties in future operation periods of the stated ship,different scenarios that simulate various fuel consumption statuses are created and analyzed within the Monte Carlo Simulation method.Lastly,calculations are made with two different time prices,approx.one and half year apart.As a result of the analyses,LNG can provide high environmental benefits since it reduces 99%for SOx,95%for PM10,95%for PM2.5,41%for CO_(2),and 82%for NOx,respectively.It is also determined that LNG investment is highly sensitive to fuel prices.In addition,the LNG usage can be beneficial for maritime companies in terms of marine policies such as paying carbon tax based on the expanding European Union Emission Trade System to maritime business.Still,it needs supportive carbon reduction method to comply with the maritime decarbonization strategy.This study has great importance in that the economic analysis way presented is able to adapt any alternative fuel system conversion for the maritime industry.

The New “Waterways and Sea Canals” Strategy in the “Continent of Asia” and Its Implications on the Global Map

This paper reviews a strategic scientific proposal to dig and construct three navigable sea lanes linking isolated inland seas and blocked side bays and linking it with the open seas, to facilitate the movement of free trade and international navigation, and to break the captivity of geographically isolated environments, and to give a strategic advantage to some areas and sectors that are neglected politically, socially, economically and environmentally, and to adopt the strategy of establishing a marine channel between the “Caspian Sea” and the “Black Sea” through the “lands belonging to Russia”. On digging a navigational canal at the lowest cost in a plain area within the territory of Russia, with a length of approximately 600 kilometers (616 km), starting from the nearest bay in the Caspian Sea, passing near the city of “Pyatigorsk” to the city of “Sochi” on the Black Sea, while it comes: -The strategy of the waterway and the sea channel between the “Caspian Sea” and the “Arabian Gulf” through the “lands belonging to Iran” by digging and cutting a path in the rocks with a width of 100 meters and a length of about 700 kilometers, and at a time rate of less than 10 years, and this project will liberate all countries in the Caspian Sea, and the study concludes with the strategy of the navigational channel between the “Arabian Gulf” and the “Mediterranean Sea” through the two countries of “Iraq-Syria”, with a length of about 1350 km, and the world will benefit in the security, commercial and political fields.

The Management of Environment Cost Caused by Ballast Water

According to classical economic theory,external cost is the indirect,and uncompensated,social or environmental cost caused to an uninvolved third party that arises as an effect of another party’s activity.In light of this,the environmental cost caused by ballast water is considered as a negative externality.This paper aims to contribute by proposing that the environmental cost caused by ballast water can be determined through questionnaires,and that the imposition of a Pigouvian retributive tax is required to compensate for the environmental damage caused.The paper proceeds as follows.Firstly,ballast water management is discussed.Second,the environmental cost is discussed and it is asserted that it is important to have clear regulations and to update them frequently to prevent or minimize ballast water’s negative impact on the environment.Finally,it is suggested that the environmental cost caused by ballast water can be determined by questionnaires and,more specifically,by the WTP(Willingness to Pay)method,and that a special Pigouvian corrective taxation which can internalize this cost should be imposed.

Assessing the impact of the maritime silk road

The plans for the Maritime Silk Road affect the existing liner services.The purpose of this paper is to quantify using the terms of network theory the impact of these plans and to project the effects on the fleet,utilization,port throughput,and carbon footprint.The analysis is based on publicly available information and reasonable fleet deployment assumptions.It also considers current and alternative routing schedules from Shanghai to Europe.The impact of existing and expected emission control areas(ECAs)along the port chains is also considered.

Paradox of international maritime organization's carbon intensity indicator

The 76th session of the Marine Environment Committee(MEPC 76)of the International Maritime Organization adopted several mandatory measures in June 2021 to reduce carbon emissions from ships.One of the measures is the carbon intensity indicator(CII),which is the carbon emissions per unit transport work for each ship.Several options of CIIs are available and none of them is chosen to be applied yet.We prove that,at least in theory,requiring the attained annual CII of a ship to be less than a reference value,no matter which CII option is applied,may increase its carbon emissions.Therefore,more elaborate models,combined with real data,should be developed to analyze the effectiveness of each CII option and possibly to design a new CII.

Study of narrow waterways congestion based on automatic identification system(AIS)data:A case study of Houston Ship Channel

Using automatic identification system(AIS)data,this article first has extended the definition of three widely used roadway congestion indices to maritime transportation systems(MTS),traffic speed index(TSI),traffic rate index(TRI),and dwell time index(DTI).Next,a methodology is developed to measure the indices based on AIS data,considering various factors,including path geometry,time of day,and the type and size of vessels,and finally the method has been applied to the AIS data of the Houston Ship Channel(HSC)to evaluate the applicability in real cases.The results show that although average TSI and TRI cannot represent waterway congestion,the real-time values(rather than the average)at the micro level can help finding location,time,and severity of traffic congestion.Besides,while TSI and TRI have shortcomings,both average and real-time dwell time index(DTI)can quantify traffic congestion and highlight severity in different waterway segments for different types of vessels.When congestion happens at some narrow waterways,vessels need to wait at sea buoy or docks,thus dwell time index(DTI)can quantify traffic congestion better than in-transit indices such as travel speed,TSI.According to HSC DTI,most tankers experience long waiting times at the sea buoy and Galveston Bay,while cargo vessels experience delays at Bayport and Barbour’s Cut terminals.This paper helps the decision-makers quantify congestion in different sections of a waterway and provides measures to compare congestion for national competing projects at different waterways.