Valuing options to renew at future market value:the case of commercial property leases

In this study,we develop and empirically test a valuation model for a commonly encountered option in office leases:a tenant’s option to renew at future market rent(a fair market value)with lease termination as the maturity date.The model integrates decision analysis with real options analysis and market risk with private risks.“Option value”is defined as the private value of the option to either party pre-contract,while“option price”assumes a fair agreement between transacting parties and can be positive(rental premium paid)or negative(rental discount offered).Without manifest expectations,an analysis of a sample of office leases supports the model’s logic with price estimates in a practical range.The tenants’option price/value is shown to have a negative relationship with the original/renewal lease term;conversely,the landlords’option value is positively related to the original/renewal term.Comparative analyses show that transaction costs have a positive effect on tenants’option value and on prices,while vacancy costs and the vacancy period are both positively related to the landlords’option value and negatively related to price.Market rent is found to have a negative relationship with option price.Overall,this study provides a theoretical analysis and empirical tests of the value of a real option that allows option holders to renew/extend their contracts at a fair market value.

Does the EVA valuation model explain the market value of equity better under changing required return than constant required return?

Through the Economic-Value-Added(EVA)valuation model,the expected market value of equity can be determined by adding the book value of equity with the present value of expected EVAs under the assumption of constant required return and constant return on equity.The equation of EVA valuation model has taken its shape under the assumption of constant required return and constant return on equity.However,a large body of empirical evidence indicates that required rate of return never remain constant.The EVA-valuation model formulated under constant required return cannot be implemented under the scenario of changing required return.In this study,we explored whether the EVA valuation model could be implemented under changing required return by making any changes in the model and found that it could be implemented under the scenario of changing required return by replacing the book value of the equity of the existing model with the present value of required earnings or normal market earnings.We further examined whether the explanatory ability of the EVA valuation model under the assumption of changing required return is better than that of the valuation model under the assumption of constant required return.Relative information content analyses were conducted by considering sample of the intrinsic value of equities determined by valuation models and the market value of equities of 69 large-cap,88 mid-cap,and 79 small-cap companies.The results showed that the EVA-based valuation model with changing normal market return outperformed the EVA-based valuation model with constant required return.

Analysis of Conditional Value-at-Risk for Newsvendor with Holding and Backorder Cost under Market Search

We consider a distribution system with one supplier and two retailers. For the two retailers, they face different demand and are both risk averse. We study a single period model which the supplier has ample goods and the retailers order goods separately. Market search is measured as the fraction of customers who unsatisfied with their ＂local＂ retailer due to stock-out, and search for the goods at the other retailer before leaving the system. We investigate how the retailers game for order quantity in a Conditional Value-at-Risk framework and study how risk averse degree, market search level, holding cost and backorder cost influence the optimal order strategies. Furthermore, we use uniform distribution to illustrate these results and obtain Nash equilibrium of order strategies.

Harnessing the Market Potential of the Bamboo Industry in Central Luzon, Philippines: An Analysis of the Internal and External Environment

The bamboo industry in Central Luzon holds significant promise for economic development and environmental sustainability. This study aims to analyze the internal and external factors influencing the bamboo industry in the region through SWOT and PESTLE analyses. Based on a focus group discussion involving key industry players, the study explores the industry’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, as well as political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors. Findings reveal the importance of comprehensive strategies that address political stability, economic growth, consumer awareness, technological advancement, legal compliance, and environmental sustainability. Recommendations include capacity-building for production and marketing, the establishment of bamboo treatment facilities, and advocacy for supportive policies. By addressing these factors, the bamboo industry in Central Luzon can realize its potential for socio-economic development and environmental stewardship.

Multi scale risk measurement in electricity market:a wavelet based value at risk approach

Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is proposed. Empirical studies conduct in five Australian electricity markets, which evaluate the performances of both the proposed approach and the traditional ARMA-GARCH approach using the Kupiec backtesting procedure. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach measures electricity market risks at higher accuracy and reliability than the bench mark ARMA-GARCH approach, as indicated by the higher p values during the Kupiec backtesting procedure. In addition, the new approach also provides more insight into the risk evolution process over time and helps in adjusting VaR estimates to the time horizons that best suit investor interests. The distribution of risk according to investor preferences is shown by decomposing VaR across different time horizons. This also provides important information for the appropriate aggregation of risk measures based on investor investment preferences.

Navigating Market Choices: Understanding Carrot Market Outlet Selection among Smallholder Farmers in Kenya

This research delves into the hurdles and strategies aimed at augmenting the market involvement of smallholder carrot farmers in Nakuru County, Kenya. Employing a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, it scrutinizes the factors influencing the selection of marketing outlets among carrot farmers. The findings unveil that a significant majority (81%) of surveyed farmers actively participate in diverse market outlets, encompassing the farm gate, cleaning point, local market, external market, and export market. Notably, pivotal buyers include aggregators, brokers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers, with transactions predominantly occurring at the farm level. Additionally, the analysis discerns substantial influences of socio-economic characteristics, experiential factors, and geographical proximity on farmers’ choices of market outlets. Specifically, gender, age, land size, farming experience, and distance to markets emerge as critical determinants. Moreover, the study delves into the examination of market margins along the carrot value chain, shedding light on the potential profitability of carrot farming in the region. Remarkably, higher average gross margins are identified in export and external markets, signaling lucrative prospects for farmers targeting these segments. However, disparities in profit distribution between farmers and traders underscore the necessity for interventions to ensure equitable value distribution throughout the value chain. These findings underscore the imperative for tailored interventions to tackle challenges and foster inclusive agricultural development. Strategies such as farmer organizations, contracting, and vertical integration are advocated to enhance market access and profitability for smallholder carrot farmers. Thus, this study enriches our comprehension of the dynamics within carrot value chains and provides valuable insights for policymakers and development practitioners aiming to uplift rural livelihoods and bolster food security.

Estimation of Dynamic VaR in Chinese Stock Markets Based on Time Scale and Extreme Value Theory

The accuracy and time scale invariance of value-at-risk （VaR） measurement methods for different stock indices and at different confidence levels are tested. Extreme value theory （EVT） is applied to model the extreme tail of standardized residual series of daily/weekly indices losses, and parametric and nonparametric methods are used to estimate parameters of the general Pareto distribution （GPD）, and dynamic VaR for indices of three stock markets in China. The accuracy and time scale invariance of risk measurement methods through back-testing approach are also examined. Results show that not all the indices accept time scale invariance; there are some differences in accuracy between different indices at various confidence levels. The most powerful dynamic VaR estimation methods are EVT-GJR-Hill at 97.5% level for weekly loss to Shanghai stock market, and EVT-GARCH-MLE （Hill） at 99.0% level for weekly loss to Taiwan and Hong Kong stock markets, respectively.

Correction to: Does the EVA valuation model explain the market value of equity better under changing required return than constant required return?

Correction to:Financ Innov(2020)6:9 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0167-8 After publication of this article(Behera 2020),it is reported this article contained an error in the section‘Risk-free return(rf)’:“Beta(β)=COV(r,re)/V(re),where COV stands for covariance,and V stands for variance”.‘re’should be corrected to‘rm’.

A New Approach for Solving Boundary Value Problem in Partial Differential Equation Arising in Financial Market

In this paper, we present a new approach for solving boundary value problem in partial differential equation arising in financial market by means of the Laplace transform. The result shows that the Laplace transform for the price of the European call option which pays dividend yield reduces to the Black-Scholes-Merton model.

Overview of the Consumer Behavior Study in the Markets of Food Products(1998-2018),Based on the Author’s Interpretation of the Consumer's Requirements in the System of Values that Influence on the Consumer Market Behavior

The purpose of this study was to review the results of a 20-year study in the author’s interpretation of the needs for food products and the value system that determines the market behavior of consumers in the food markets.The scientific novelty of the research is the following results:a)The author’s interpretation of the needs for food products,as consisting of three components:(1)The actual need for food(physiological need);(2)the need for emotions obtained from eating(psychological need);and(3)the need for market products that can meet the physiological needs of emotional expectations and social needs(socio-psychological and economic need);b)Interdisciplinary approach to the study of consumer behavior that led to the author’s interpretation of the value of the research methods outlined in the works of J.N.Sheth et al.,extended and supplemented in the study of Galina V.Astratova(1998);c)Identification of the fact that the importance of components in the system of values,according to the results of research,is different for different food products.This allows simulating more clearly the behavior of the consumer in the development of a marketing-mix and developing a marketing strategy based on targeting.

The Effect of Dividends and Earnings per Share on the Stock Market Value by Moderating Bank Size

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of dividend distributions and earnings per share by moderating bank size as measured by its total assets on the stock market value of banks operating in Jordan during the period between 2011 and 2016.The hypotheses of the study were tested based on multiple and hierarchical regression method.The most important result of the study is that the earnings per share is the strongest variable that helps in predicting the stock market value of the bank shares,in addition to the significant effect of bank size as measured by its total assets.

Milk Market Performances and Cofounding Factors along Milk Value Chain in Pastoral Area:A Case of Borana Pastoralists,Borana Zone,Ethiopia

The study was conducted in Borana zone with the objectives understanding the milk market performance and challenges along the value chain.The primary data was collected from 123 households that drawn proportionally following multistage sampling based randomly selected households.Additionally,relevant information was collected from different sectors besides relevant literature session.Similarly,Focused Group Discussions,key informant interview and visual observations were also undertaken to collect the primary data.In the course of data collection,different set of checklists were used for different groups of actors to guide survey data collection,group discussions and key informant interview.The study found that input supply,natural calamity,marketing system,declining of livestock productivity,infrastructure and hygiene are among the major challenges along the dairy value chain.Above all,the dominance of value chain actors by pastoralists coupled with fragmented milk marketing system was the critical factors that stunted the milk market system in the study area.As a result,the performance of milk value chain is fragmented and distorted.Moreover,the supply of milk to the market become meager even though the milk selling practices have been flamed.Additionally,the dilution of pure drought resistant Borana cattle called“Qorti”is at its critical level of its extinction which challenges the milk production.Thus,it is important to enhance the milk marketing,encouraging milk supply and improving milk productivity.

Research on the Marketing Mechanism of E-commerce Live Broadcast - Based on The Perspective of Brand Value Co-Creation

Today,the e-commerce live broadcast industry has formed a huge market,and it has become one of the important ways for most netizens to purchase goods.Live streaming has brought new opportunities for e-commerce and new growth for brand value.The interaction between brands and customers has gradually expanded,in this case,the importance of value co-creation has become more and more prominent.This article will take e-commerce live broadcast marketing as the research object,and the brand value co-creation as the research perspective,then provide a direction based on the value co-creation perspective for the healthy and long-term development of e-commerce live broadcast marketing by studying and analyzing the cases of brand value co-creation.

Research on the Relationship Between Macroeconomic Indicators and Stock Market Value

The article first addresses the following questions:“Why does gross domestic product(GDP)rises,but the stock market value falls?”;“Among the macroeconomic factors,which factor has a greater impact on the promotion of investment value in the securities market?”.With these questions in mind,we put forward a hypothesis emphasizing on the impact of macroeconomic factors on the value of the stock market based on existing research and used the regression method to verify this hypothesis.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)variables that have a positive nonlinear relationship with stock market value include balance of payments surplus,rising GDP level,M1,the whole society’s fixed asset investment,and national per capita disposable income;(2)variables that have a negative nonlinear relationship with stock market value include deposit,loan interest rate,new RMB loan amount,consumer price index(CPI),and producer price index;(3)deposit reserve ratio has an S-shaped curve relationship with stock market value;(4)exchange rate has an inverted U-shaped curve relationship with stock market value.

Development of contingent valuation method in evaluating non-market values of resources and environment in China

The contingent valuation method （CVM） is one of the main methods for evaluating non-market values of resources. It originated in the United States and was introduced into China during the 1980s and 1990s. However, application of CVM in China is highly controversial based on three primary aspects： （I） the appropriate guidelines for CVM; （2） the elicitation techniques for willingness to pay （WTP）; and （3） reliability and validity testing of CVM. The major objectives of this paper are to i^eview the recem devel- opments pertaining to guidelines, elicitation techniques, and reliability and validity testing for application of CVM, and to summa- rize the limitations of and measures for improving application of CVM in China. The applicability of CVM in China is discussed to enhance the future development of CVM in China.

Importance of Generalized Logistic Distribution in Extreme Value Modeling

We consider a problem from stock market modeling, precisely, choice of adequate distribution of modeling extremal behavior of stock market data. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution are the classical distributions for this problem. However, from 2004, [1] and many other researchers have been empirically showing that generalized logistic (GL) distribution is a better model than GEV and GP distributions in modeling extreme movement of stock market data. In this paper, we show that these results are not accidental. We prove the theoretical importance of GL distribution in extreme value modeling. For proving this, we introduce a general multivariate limit theorem and deduce some important multivariate theorems in probability as special cases. By using the theorem, we derive a limit theorem in extreme value theory, where GL distribution plays central role instead of GEV distribution. The proof of this result is parallel to the proof of classical extremal types theorem, in the sense that, it possess important characteristic in classical extreme value theory, for e.g. distributional property, stability, convergence and multivariate extension etc.

Booming or sinking: How does an emission trading scheme affect enterprise value?

Unlike prior research that shows climate policy improves enterprise value,this study reveals the negative im‐pact of emission trading schemes(ETSs)on enterprise value under China’s unique institutional backdrop and identifies the mechanism through which this impact occurs.Data from a sample of 1267 listed companies in the Chinese stock market from 2005 to 2018 models are analyzed using difference-in-differences(DID)and propensity score matching methods(PSM).The results suggest that ETSs have an average short-term negative impact on enterprise value,which peaks in the second year of the ETS and diminishes from the fourth year.Further analysis reveals that ETSs did not cause significant operating losses for firms but reduced their value through the market response mechanism.ETS enterprises experienced significant declines in their annual stock transaction amounts and in returns on individual shares.This indicates that investors expect ETSs to ad‐versely affect pilot enterprises and accordingly adopt disinvestment strategies.Despite the short-term negative effect,ETSs effectively encourage enterprises to innovate green technologies to mitigate long-term carbon risk.

Estimation of Economic Value of Agroforestry Systems at the Local Scale in Eastern Sudan

The objective of this paper is to institute farmers’ own perceptions of the on-and off-farm benefits of agroforestry systems (AFS). Using use value approach, this paper presents empirical evidence on the use values of three types of AFS practiced by the refugees and their hosting communities in Eastern Sudan. The total economic value (TEV) was applied as a framework to estimate the ecosystem values of AFS under study. Goods values were estimated using specific market values, while the services values were qualitatively described according to local perceived values of the local communities. Perceived TEV of AFS includes marketable and non-marketable goods and services. The main direct marketable and sustainable high value products include: food, cash crops, firewood, gum, fodder, NTFPs medicine, fodder, and honey. The valuation results reveal that AFS in the project sites have significantly contributed to the livelihoods of the local communities. Overall, the average net direct-use value of marketable products across all sites was estimated at 7,346,000.0 SDG (1,335,636.36 US$) HH/annum. Gum Arabic alone accounted for 38%, followed by sorghum grain and fodder 35%, and cash crops (sesame) 18%. This value would be many time higher if other indirect values (non-marketable) services such as shade, aesthetic and recreation, environmental protection, biodiversity and carbon sequestration are quantified. The goods and services mentioned above provide sustainable income to the farmer directly and viable benefits to the region indirectly. Hence, AFS in the study sites shows the way to reconcile two conflicting goals: short-term food and livelihood needs with long-term environmental conservation and improvement. The study provides evidence that the high local perceived values of AFS in the study sites constitute a central means of livelihood, whereas its contribution to the local economy. The study stresses the need to quantify the monetary values of non-marketed products to consistently account for resource availability and usage to further sound policy decisions. Tenure security, farmer support services and human capital development were major areas identified for policy development.

Value investing or investing in illiquidity?The profitability of contrarian investment strategies, revisited

Background:We investigate whether the success of contrarian investment strategies can be attributed to differences in the relative illiquidity of stocks categorized as value investments versus those categorized as glamour portfolios.Methods:Following Lakonishok et al.(J Financ 49:1541–1578,1994),we assess the illiquidity characteristics of portfolios that underlie contrarian investment strategies that are based on the level of stock’s book to market.Results:We find strong evidence that those portfolios characterized as value investments are associated with dramatically greater levels of illiquidity than glamour portfolios.We further demonstrate that strategies based on the illiquidity in the year prior to portfolio formation result in return characteristic of ostensibly contrarian strategies.Conclusions:These results suggest that the higher returns associated with contrarian investment strategies are the result of the higher illiquidity associated with value portfolios and represent compensation that the investor receives for accepting illiquidity.They also suggest that researchers should be cautious before attributing apparent anomalies to behavior-driven expectational errors rather than to other attributes unrelated to behavior,such as illiquidity.