Response of Freezing/Thawing Indexes to the Wetting Trend under Warming Climate Conditions over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2010:A Numerical Simulation

Since the 1990s,the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau(QTP)has experienced a strikingly warming and wetter climate that alters the thermal and hydrological properties of frozen ground.A positive correlation between the warming and thermal degradation in permafrost or seasonally frozen ground(SFG)has long been recognized.Still,a predictive relationship between historical wetting under warming climate conditions and frozen ground has not yet been well demonstrated,despite the expectation that it will become even more important because precipitation over the QTP has been projected to increase continuously in the near future.This study investigates the response of the thermal regime to historical wetting in both permafrost and SFG areas and examines their relationships separately using the Community Land Surface Model version 4.5.Results show that wetting before the 1990s across the QTP mainly cooled the permafrost body in the arid and semiarid zones,with significant correlation coefficients of 0.60 and 0.48,respectively.Precipitation increased continually at the rate of 6.16 mm decade–1 in the arid zone after the 1990s but had a contrasting warming effect on permafrost through a significant shortening of the thawing duration within the active layer.However,diminished rainfall in the humid zone after the 1990s also significantly extended the thawing duration of SFG.The relationship between the ground thawing index and precipitation was significantly negatively correlated(−0.75).The dual effects of wetting on the thermal dynamics of the QTP are becoming critical because of the projected increases in future precipitation.

Application of Matter-element Model in Soil Nutrient Evaluation of Ecological Fragile Region

On the basis of the soil environment investigation in Da＇an City, Jilin Province, China, 40 soil samples from main land use types were obtained and tested by standard method. Soil organic matter （SOM）, total N （TN）, total P （TP）, total K （TK）, available N （AN）, available P （AP） and available K （AK） were chosen as the evaluation factors. A regional soil nutrient evaluation model was developed based on the matter-element model. The results show that the soil samples with nutrient grade Ⅱ-Ⅴ respectively account for 10%, 30%, 32.5% and 27.5%, and those with grade Ⅳ and Ⅴ account for 60% in all samples. The relationship between soil nutrients and land types indicates that the nutrients of farmland are relatively good, with 41.7% of soil samples with the nutrient grade Ⅳ and Ⅴ. The nutrients of saline-alkali land and sandy land are the worst, with 100% of soil samples with the nutrient grade IV and V. And the ratios of soil samples grade IV and V in grassland and wasteland are respectively 62.5 % and 54.55%. Generally speaking, the soil nutrients status in Da＇an City is poor, 60% of soil samples are in poor and extremely poor conditions, indicating that the soil has been severely eroded. Being a relatively superior evaluation method with more accurate resuits and spatial distribution consistency, matter-element analysis is more suitable for regional soil nutrient evaluation than previous models.

Carrying capacity of water environment in public tourism resources based on matter-element model

When water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction is studied, the two action subjects of tourists and local residents should be discussed, and comprehensive consideration must be given to the influence of these two on water environment. On the basis of water resource carrying capacity and water quality carrying capacity, water environmental carrying capacity index of public resource tourist attraction was constructed, the model for the water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction was established on the basis of matter-element model and analytical hierarchy process. By applying this method, water environmental carrying capacity situation of a certain public resource tourist attraction can be gained, moreover, situations about several aspects of water environmental carrying capacity can be evaluated.

Simulation Analysis on Navigation Indexes of Wanzhou Yangtze River Highway Bridge after the Anti-Collision Device Construction by Ship Model Test

After the anti-collision facility construction of Wanzhou Yangtze River Highway Bridge, the conditions of navigation in bridge area are complex. In order to study the navigation conditions of the reach and layout optimization measures, ensuring the safety of the ship navigation test has been carried out on the ship model navigation in the bridge area. According to the requirements of the maximum safety limit of the ship model test, the paper puts forward the best route, the control method and the difficulty of navigation through the analysis of the test results, and finally gives the recommendations and suggestions.

Different effects of economic and structural performance indexes on model construction of structural topology optimization

The objective and constraint functions related to structural optimization designs are classified into economic and performance indexes in this paper.The influences of their different roles in model construction of structural topology optimization are also discussed.Furthermore,two structural topology optimization models,optimizing a performance index under the limitation of an economic index,represented by the minimum compliance with a volume constraint（MCVC）model,and optimizing an economic index under the limitation of a performance index,represented by the minimum weight with a displacement constraint（MWDC）model,are presented.Based on a comparison of numerical example results,the conclusions can be summarized as follows：（1）under the same external loading and displacement performance conditions,the results of the MWDC model are almost equal to those of the MCVC model;（2）the MWDC model overcomes the difficulties and shortcomings of the MCVC model;this makes the MWDC model more feasible in model construction;（3）constructing a model of minimizing an economic index under the limitations of performance indexes is better at meeting the needs of practical engineering problems and completely satisfies safety and economic requirements in mechanical engineering,which have remained unchanged since the early days of mechanical engineering.

Matter-element models for comprehensive earthquake predication and their applications

Extenics was a branch of mathematics for studying the incompatible problems. In this paper, basing on calculating the associative functions of all various indexes, we have obtained the quantitative assessment results of prediction indexes by introducing this theory into the comprehensive earthquake prediction through establishing the matter-element model for comprehensive prediction, so that the incompatible problems can be solved. The preliminary results demonstrate that this method has better prospects in comprehensive earthquake prediction.

Study on the Model between the Occurrence Area of Grasshopper and the Characteristic Quantity Indexes of Atmospheric Circulation in Western Aletai

By analyzing the correlation between the occurrence area of grasshopper and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation in western Aletai from 1991 to 2008,the atmospheric circulation factors which had the significant relationship with the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties were screened.The prediction models for the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties were established by stepwise regression method,and the models obtained were also tested.These models were subsequently utilized to carry out extended prediction on the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties of western Aletai from 2009 to 2010.Meanwhile,the relationship between the atmospheric circulation factors and the occurrence area of grasshopper were analyzed.The results provided the theoretical basis for the prediction on grasshopper plague.

Research on Affordability Modeling of Aircraft Based on Effectiveness Indexes

With the cost estimation of military aircraft as the research object, this paper aims to study the contradiction between the choice of explanatory variables in index modeling and the maintaining of model validity. It analyzes and establishes a cost estimation modeling concept based on an Effectiveness Index and studies the way to construct Effectiveness Indexes for the sake of cost estimation modeling. Based on a case study, the paper establishes and analyzes the Effectiveness Index-based cost estimation models and DAPCA （Development And Procurement Costs of Aircraft） models developed by the RAND Corparation . The comparison of these models shows that the Effective- ness Index-based cost parameter models not only comprehensively consider the obvious driving parameter indexes of the cost, but reduces the variables of regressive analysis, hence giving the model a higher reliability.

Building a Comprehensive Well-off Society in Yunnan＇s Minority Areas A Study of the Prediction on the Differences in Life Quality Indexes

Based on the gray theory and GM （1, 1） model, the life quality indexes in next few years are predicted using the statistical data of the life quality indexes of Yunnan＇ s 8 minority areas in recent years and also compared with the standard value （2020） of building the national well-off society, and the differences between them are measured and calculated. Thus, effective reference information is provided for the decision-making of government.

Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Method of Mountain Flood Disaster Prevention and Control in Jiangxi Province Based on Matter-Element Extension Model

Taking the mountain flood disaster prevention and control project in Jiangxi province as the research object, the evaluation period is 2010-2015, and 29 evaluation indexes are selected from 7 aspects. In this paper, game theory is introduced to optimize the subjective and objective weights of the index, and the comprehensive weights are obtained by normalization. The results show that the eigenvalues of the grade variables of benefit evaluation decreased from 3.43 to 2.03, indicating that the project of mountain flood disaster prevention and control in Jiangxi province brings into play the benefits year by year, and the eigenvalues tend to decrease steadily after 2012, it is consistent with the changes of various engineering measures and non-engineering measures in the project.

Research on the Correlation Between Physical Examination Indexes and TCM Constitutions Using the RBF Neural Network

Objective To establish correlation models between various physical examination indexes and traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)constitutions,and explore their relationships based on the radial basis function(RBF)neural network.Methods The raw data of physical examination indexes and TMC constitutions of 650 subjects who underwent a physical examination were cleaned,classified and sorted,on the basis of which valid data were retrieved and categorized into a training dataset and a test dataset.Subsequently,the RBF neural network was applied to the valid samples in the training set to establish correlation models between various physical examination indexes and TCM constitutions.The accuracy and the error margin of the correlation model were then verified using the valid samples in the test set.Results Of all selected samples,the highest accuracy rates were 80% for the blood lipid index-TCM constitution model;100% for the renal function index-TCM constitution model;100% for the blood routine(male)index-TCM constitution model;88.8% for the blood routine(female)index-TCM constitution model;84.1%for the urine routine index-TCM constitution model;and 100% for the blood transfusion index-TCM constitution model.Conclusions The samples selected in this study suggested that there is a strong correlation between physical examination indexes and TCM constitutions,making it feasible to apply the established correlation models to TCM constitution identification.

Evaluation of the eco-environmental frangibility in west Jilin Province based on the matter-element model

The west Jilin Province is a typical area in the ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry,with a frangible eco-environment.With respect to the three aspects of water resource,natural disasters and land degradation,10 indices were selected to establish a matter-element model for the assessment of eco-environmental frangibility in the west Jilin Province.The results indicate that during 1985–2000,Qian’an,Fuyu,and Changling had the least frangibility(level Ⅰ),followed by Da’an and Qianguo(level Ⅱ),and Taobei,Zhenlai,Taonan,and Tongyu had the highest frangibility(level Ⅲ).On the whole,the counties in Songyuan city were less frangible than those in Baicheng city.Different counties had different frangibilities to environmental factors,e.g.,Da’an and Tongyu were frangible in water resource conditions;Taobei,Zhenlai,Taonan,Tongyu and Qian’an suffered most from natural disasters;while Taobei,Taonan and Qianguo were threatened by severe land degradation.

Development of a model based on the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index to predict survival for resected perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma(pCCA)has a poor prognosis and urgently needs a better predictive method.The predictive value of the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index(ACCI)for the long-term prognosis of patients with multiple malignancies was recently reported.However,pCCA is one of the most surgically difficult gastrointestinal tumors with the poorest prognosis,and the value of the ACCI for the prognosis of pCCA patients after curative resection is unclear.AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of the ACCI and to design an online clinical model for pCCA patients.METHODS Consecutive pCCA patients after curative resection between 2010 and 2019 were enrolled from a multicenter database.The patients were randomly assigned 3:1 to training and validation cohorts.In the training and validation cohorts,all patients were divided into low-,moderate-,and high-ACCI groups.Kaplan-Meier curves were used to determine the impact of the ACCI on overall survival(OS)for pCCA patients,and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors affecting OS.An online clinical model based on the ACCI was developed and validated.The concordance index(C-index),calibration curve,and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance and fit of this model.RESULTS A total of 325 patients were included.There were 244 patients in the training cohort and 81 patients in the validation cohort.In the training cohort,116,91 and 37 patients were classified into the low-,moderate-and high-ACCI groups.The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients in the moderate-and high-ACCI groups had worse survival rates than those in the low-ACCI group.Multivariable analysis revealed that moderate and high ACCI scores were independently associated with OS in pCCA patients after curative resection.In addition,an online clinical model was developed that had ideal C-indexes of 0.725 and 0.675 for predicting OS in the training and validation cohorts.The calibration curve and ROC curve indicated that the model had a good fit and prediction performance.CONCLUSION A high ACCI score may predict poor long-term survival in pCCA patients after curative resection.High-risk patients screened by the ACCI-based model should be given more clinical attention in terms of the management of comorbidities and postoperative follow-up.

Novel Hybrid X GBoost Model to Forecast Soil Shear Strength Based on Some Soil Index Tests

When building geotechnical constructions like retaining walls and dams is of interest,one of the most important factors to consider is the soil’s shear strength parameters.This study makes an effort to propose a novel predictive model of shear strength.The study implements an extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)technique coupled with a powerful optimization algorithm,the salp swarm algorithm(SSA),to predict the shear strength of various soils.To do this,a database consisting of 152 sets of data is prepared where the shear strength(τ)of the soil is considered as the model output and some soil index tests(e.g.,dry unit weight,water content,and plasticity index)are set as model inputs.Themodel is designed and tuned using both effective parameters of XGBoost and SSA,and themost accuratemodel is introduced in this study.Thepredictionperformanceof theSSA-XGBoostmodel is assessedbased on the coefficient of determination(R2)and variance account for(VAF).Overall,the obtained values of R^(2) and VAF(0.977 and 0.849)and(97.714%and 84.936%)for training and testing sets,respectively,confirm the workability of the developed model in forecasting the soil shear strength.To investigate the model generalization,the prediction performance of the model is tested for another 30 sets of data(validation data).The validation results(e.g.,R^(2) of 0.805)suggest the workability of the proposed model.Overall,findings suggest that when the shear strength of the soil cannot be determined directly,the proposed hybrid XGBoost-SSA model can be utilized to assess this parameter.

Combining RUSLE model and the vegetation health index to unravel the relationship between soil erosion and droughts in southeastern Tunisia

Droughts and soil erosion are among the most prominent climatic driven hazards in drylands,leading to detrimental environmental impacts,such as degraded lands,deteriorated ecosystem services and biodiversity,and increased greenhouse gas emissions.In response to the current lack of studies combining drought conditions and soil erosion processes,in this study,we developed a comprehensive Geographic Information System(GIS)-based approach to assess soil erosion and droughts,thereby revealing the relationship between soil erosion and droughts under an arid climate.The vegetation condition index(VCI)and temperature condition index(TCI)derived respectively from the enhanced vegetation index(EVI)MOD13A2 and land surface temperature(LST)MOD11A2 products were combined to generate the vegetation health index(VHI).The VHI has been conceived as an efficient tool to monitor droughts in the Negueb watershed,southeastern Tunisia.The revised universal soil loss equation(RUSLE)model was applied to quantitatively estimate soil erosion.The relationship between soil erosion and droughts was investigated through Pearson correlation.Results exhibited that the Negueb watershed experienced recurrent mild to extreme drought during 2000–2016.The average soil erosion rate was determined to be 1.8 t/(hm2•a).The mountainous western part of the watershed was the most vulnerable not only to soil erosion but also to droughts.The slope length and steepness factor was shown to be the most significant controlling parameter driving soil erosion.The relationship between droughts and soil erosion had a positive correlation(r=0.3);however,the correlation was highly varied spatially across the watershed.Drought was linked to soil erosion in the Negueb watershed.The current study provides insight for natural disaster risk assessment,land managers,and stake-holders to apply appropriate management measures to promote sustainable development goals in fragile environments.

Evaluation on Urban Land Ecological Security Based on the PSR Model and Matter-Element Analysis: A Case Study of Zhuhai, Guangdong, China

As one of the Special Economic Zones since the reform and opening up, Zhuhai has developed during the past 30 years. Its economic development, industrial structure and ecological environment have undergone great changes. Research on changes in Zhuhai’s land ecological security is of great significance. Using relevant data from 2007-2012, this study established a land ecological security assessment system based on the PSR conceptual framework model. The system contained 18 indicators from 3 aspects according to the concrete features of Zhuhai. Then we used the matterelement analysis and the improved entropy weight to analyze and evaluate the land ecological security of Zhuhai. The results showed that: from 2007 to 2012, the levels of the land ecological security of Zhuhai were “secure”, and the value increased year by year;as the land ecological security response value increased, Zhuhai was capable of solving land ecosystem problems. However, it should be noted that the structure of land ecosystem in Zhuhai has not formed and that rapid expansion of construction land has caused the shortage of cultivated land and other issues. Measures should be taken to control the construction area, improve land intensive utilization and improve the land ecological security.

Predictive model using four ferroptosis-related genes accurately predicts gastric cancer prognosis

BACKGROUND Gastric cancer(GC)is a common malignancy of the digestive system.According to global 2018 cancer data,GC has the fifth-highest incidence and the thirdhighest fatality rate among malignant tumors.More than 60%of GC are linked to infection with Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori),a gram-negative,active,microaerophilic,and helical bacterium.This parasite induces GC by producing toxic factors,such as cytotoxin-related gene A,vacuolar cytotoxin A,and outer membrane proteins.Ferroptosis,or iron-dependent programmed cell death,has been linked to GC,although there has been little research on the link between H.pylori infection-related GC and ferroptosis.AIM To identify coregulated differentially expressed genes among ferroptosis-related genes(FRGs)in GC patients and develop a ferroptosis-related prognostic model with discrimination ability.METHODS Gene expression profiles of GC patients and those with H.pylori-associated GC were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus(GEO)databases.The FRGs were acquired from the FerrDb database.A ferroptosis-related gene prognostic index(FRGPI)was created using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator–Cox regression.The predictive ability of the FRGPI was validated in the GEO cohort.Finally,we verified the expression of the hub genes and the activity of the ferroptosis inducer FIN56 in GC cell lines and tissues.RESULTS Four hub genes were identified(NOX4,MTCH1,GABARAPL2,and SLC2A3)and shown to accurately predict GC and H.pylori-associated GC.The FRGPI based on the hub genes could independently predict GC patient survival;GC patients in the high-risk group had considerably worse overall survival than did those in the low-risk group.The FRGPI was a significant predictor of GC prognosis and was strongly correlated with disease progression.Moreover,the gene expression levels of common immune checkpoint proteins dramatically increased in the highrisk subgroup of the FRGPI cohort.The hub genes were also confirmed to be highly overexpressed in GC cell lines and tissues and were found to be primarily localized at the cell membrane.The ferroptosis inducer FIN56 inhibited GC cell proliferation in a dose-dependent manner.CONCLUSION In this study,we developed a predictive model based on four FRGs that can accurately predict the prognosis of GC patients and the efficacy of immunotherapy in this population.

Matter-elements model and application for prediction of ccoal and gas outburst

The theory and method of extenics were applied to establish classical field matterelements and segment field matter elements for coal and gas outburst.A matter-element model for prediction was established based on five matter-elements,which includedgas pressure,types of coal damage,coal rigidity,initial speed of methane diffusionand in-situ stress.Each index weight was given fairly and quickly through the improvedanalytic hierarchy process,which need not carry on consistency checks,so accuracy ofassessment can be improved.

Machine Learning for Hybrid Line Stability Ranking Index in Polynomial Load Modeling under Contingency Conditions

In the conventional technique,in the evaluation of the severity index,clustering and loading suffer from more iteration leading to more com-putational delay.Hence this research article identifies,a novel progression for fast predicting the severity of the line and clustering by incorporating machine learning aspects.The polynomial load modelling or ZIP(constant impedances(Z),Constant Current(I)and Constant active power(P))is developed in the IEEE-14 and Indian 118 bus systems considered for analysis of power system security.The process of finding the severity of the line using a Hybrid Line Stability Ranking Index(HLSRI)is used for assisting the concepts of machine learning with J48 algorithm,infers the superior affected lines by adopting the IEEE standards in concern to be compensated in maintaining the power system stability.The simulation is performed in the WEKA environment and deals with the supervisor learning in order based on severity to ensure the safety of power system.The Unified Power Flow Controller(UPFC),facts devices for the purpose of compensating the losses by maintaining the voltage characteristics.The finite element analysis findings are compared with the existing procedures and numerical equations for authentications.

Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of landscape pattern and habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 based on InVEST model

Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the quality of ecosystem.The Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin plays an important role in the ecological protection of the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin.To comprehensively analysis the alterations of habitat quality in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin,this study utilized the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model to calculate the habitat quality index and analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of habitat quality in the study area from 2000 to 2022,and calculated seven landscape pattern indices(number of patches,patch density,largest patch index(LPI),landscape shape index(LSI),contagion index(CONTAG),Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index)to research the variation of landscape pattern in the study area.The results showed that the number of patches,patch density,LPI,LSI,Shannon diversity index,and Shannon evenness index increased from 2000 to 2022,while the CONTAG decreased,indicating that the landscape pattern in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin changed in the direction of distribution fragmentation,shape complexity,and heterogeneity.The average value of the habitat quality index in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 was 0.90.Based on the value of habitat quality index,we divided the level of habitat quality into five categories:lower(0.00-0.20),low(0.20-0.40),moderate(0.40-0.60),high(0.60-0.80),and higher(0.80-1.00).Most areas were at the higher habitat quality level.The lower habitat quality patches were mainly distributed in Longyang Gorge and Yellow River-Huangshui River Valley.From 2000 to 2022,the habitat quality in most areas was stable;the increase areas were mainly distributed in Guinan County,while the decrease areas were mainly distributed in Xining City,Maqen County,Xinghai County,Qumarleb County,and Darlag County.To show the extent of habitat quality variation,we calculated Sen index.The results showed that the higher habitat quality area had a decrease trending,while other categories had an increasing tendency,and the decreasing was faster than increasing.The research results provide scientific guidance for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Qinghai Province section of the Yellow River Basin.