The maximum entropy spectral characteristics of seismicity in the seismic enhanced region of 11 great earthquakes is analysed in this paper to seek the difference of seismic period spectral structure between the norm...The maximum entropy spectral characteristics of seismicity in the seismic enhanced region of 11 great earthquakes is analysed in this paper to seek the difference of seismic period spectral structure between the normal and the abnormal stage of seismic activity in this paper. The results show that, during decades or even one hundred years before great earthquakes, only short periods with 6.5～24.3 years appear, and long ones disappear. Otherwise, long periods with 18.5～38.5 years exist chiefly within the normal stages. Decades years after great earthquakes, the period spectra of seismicity are generally about several or ten years. Then the characteristics of great earthquakes is explained physically by applying the strong body seismogenic model, so a method of studying and predicting great earthquakes is offered.展开更多
It is theoretically demonstrated that singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is an equivalent form of Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis (MESA) which is essential1y a nonlinear estimation of the classical power spectrum. Bo...It is theoretically demonstrated that singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is an equivalent form of Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis (MESA) which is essential1y a nonlinear estimation of the classical power spectrum. Both methods have respectively some different features in application as a result of the difference of description of manners. The numerical experiments show that SSA possesses some special advantage in climatic diagnosis and prediction, e.g., to steadily and accurately identify periods and investigate on domain of time in combination with frequency,which cannot be replaced by MESA. Thus SSA has extensive application in the near future.展开更多
文摘The maximum entropy spectral characteristics of seismicity in the seismic enhanced region of 11 great earthquakes is analysed in this paper to seek the difference of seismic period spectral structure between the normal and the abnormal stage of seismic activity in this paper. The results show that, during decades or even one hundred years before great earthquakes, only short periods with 6.5～24.3 years appear, and long ones disappear. Otherwise, long periods with 18.5～38.5 years exist chiefly within the normal stages. Decades years after great earthquakes, the period spectra of seismicity are generally about several or ten years. Then the characteristics of great earthquakes is explained physically by applying the strong body seismogenic model, so a method of studying and predicting great earthquakes is offered.
文摘It is theoretically demonstrated that singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is an equivalent form of Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis (MESA) which is essential1y a nonlinear estimation of the classical power spectrum. Both methods have respectively some different features in application as a result of the difference of description of manners. The numerical experiments show that SSA possesses some special advantage in climatic diagnosis and prediction, e.g., to steadily and accurately identify periods and investigate on domain of time in combination with frequency,which cannot be replaced by MESA. Thus SSA has extensive application in the near future.
