Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model uses maximum wind speed corresponding to multiple typhoons to construct sample sequence.Thresholds are usually used to filter sample sequences to make them more consistent with ...Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model uses maximum wind speed corresponding to multiple typhoons to construct sample sequence.Thresholds are usually used to filter sample sequences to make them more consistent with Poisson distribution.However,few studies have discussed the threshold setting and its impact on Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model.In this study,a sample sequence based on the data of Qinzhou meteorological station from 2005 to 2018 were constructed.We set 0%,5%,10%,20%and 30%gradient thresholds.Then,we analyzed the influence of threshold change on the calculation results of maximum wind speed in different return periods.The results showed that:(1)When the threshold increases,the maximum wind speed of each return period will decrease gradually.This indicates that the length of the sample series may have a positive effect on the return period wind speed calculation in Gumbel and Poisson-Gumbel methods.Although the augment of the threshold increases the average value of the maximum wind speed of the sample sequence,it shortens the length of the sample sequence,resulting in a lower calculated value of the maximum wind speed.However,this deviation is not large.Taking the common 10%threshold as an example,the maximum wind speed calculation deviation in the 50 a return period is about 1.9%;(2)Theoretically,the threshold is set to make the sample sequence more consistent with Poisson distribution,but this example showed that the effect is worth further discussion.Although the overall trend showed that the increase of the threshold can makeχ2 decrease,the correlation coefficient of linear fitting was only 0.182.Taking Qinzhou meteorological station data as an example,theχ2 of 20%threshold was as high as 6.35,meaning that the selected sample sequence was not ideal.展开更多
Using the data on the maximum wind speed within ten minutes every month in the period 1971-2009 in Zhucheng City of Shandong Province, we conduct statistical analysis of the maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City. The re...Using the data on the maximum wind speed within ten minutes every month in the period 1971-2009 in Zhucheng City of Shandong Province, we conduct statistical analysis of the maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City. The results show that over thirty-nine years, the annual maximum wind speed in four seasons in Zhucheng City tends to decline. The annual maximum wind speed declines at the rate of 1.45 m/s every 10 years. It falls fastest in winter, with decline rate of 1.73 m/s every 10 years; it is close to the average annual maximum wind speed in spring and autumn, with decline rate of 1.44 m/s and 14.8 m/s every 10 years, respectively; it falls slowest in summer, and the extreme value of the maximum wind speed occurs mainly in spring. The curve of changes in the monthly maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City assumes diminishing shape of "two peaks and one trough". We conduct preliminary analysis of the windy weather situation, and put forth specific defensive measures against the hazards of strong winds in the different periods.展开更多
In this study,the movement of the maximum wind of Typhoon Rammasun(2014)was measured by the radial movement of the maximum symmetric rotational kinetic energy.The weather research and forecasting(WRF)model was used to...In this study,the movement of the maximum wind of Typhoon Rammasun(2014)was measured by the radial movement of the maximum symmetric rotational kinetic energy.The weather research and forecasting(WRF)model was used to simulate Typhoon Rammasun,and validated simulation data for the lower troposphere were analyzed to examine the physical processes responsible for the radial movement of the maximum wind.The radii,where maximum symmetric rotational kinetic energy and its maximum tendency were located,were compared to explain radial movement.The tendency in the lower troposphere is controlled by the flux convergence of symmetric rotational kinetic energy and the conversion from symmetric divergent kinetic energy to symmetric rotational kinetic energy,as well as frictional dissipation in the symmetric rotational kinetic energy budget.The inward movement before rapid intensification(RI)resulted from radial flux convergence;cyclonic circulation develops while moving inward.Stationary maximum symmetric rotational kinetic energy and RI were caused by the conversion,which was observed to be proportional to the symmetric rotational kinetic energy.Landfall increased terrain-induced friction dissipation,which led to outward movement and ended the RI.展开更多
When the wind speed changes significantly in a permanent magnet synchronous wind power generation system,the maximum power point cannot be easily determined in a timely manner.This study proposes a maximum power refer...When the wind speed changes significantly in a permanent magnet synchronous wind power generation system,the maximum power point cannot be easily determined in a timely manner.This study proposes a maximum power reference signal search method based on fuzzy control,which is an improvement to the climbing search method.A neural network-based parameter regulator is proposed to address external wind speed fluctuations,where the parameters of a proportional-integral controller is adjusted to accurately monitor the maximum power point under different wind speed conditions.Finally,the effectiveness of this method is verified via Simulink simulation.展开更多
In this study, the maximum wind speed （WSmax） changes across China from 1956 to 2004 were analyzed based on observed station data, and the changes of WSmax for 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 are projected using three globa...In this study, the maximum wind speed （WSmax） changes across China from 1956 to 2004 were analyzed based on observed station data, and the changes of WSmax for 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 are projected using three global climate models （GFDL_CM2_0, CCCMA_CGCM3, and MRI_CGCM2） that have participated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report （AR4）. The observed annual and seasonal WSmax and the frequency of gale days showed obvious declining trends. The annual WSmax decreased by approximately 1.46 m s^-i per decade, and the number of gale days decreased by 3.0 days per decade from 1956 to 2004. The amplitudes of the annual and seasonal WSmax decreases are larger than those of the annual and seasonal average wind speeds （WSavg）. The weakening of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons is the cause for the distinct decreases of both WSmax and WSavg over the whole China. The decrease of WSmax in the southeast coastal areas of China is related to the reduced intensity of cold waves in China and the decreasing number （and decreasing intensity） of land-falling typhoons originated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The global climate models GFDL_CM2_0, MRI_CGCM2, and EBGCM （the ensemble of above men-tioned three global climate models） consistently suggest that the annual and seasonal WSmax values will decrease during 2046-2065 and 2080 2099 relative to 1981 2000. The models also suggest that decreases in WSmax for whole China during 2046-2065 and 2080 2099 are related to both the reduced intensity of cold waves and the reduced intensity of the winter monsoon, and the decrease in WSmax in the southeast coastal areas of China is corresponding to the decreasing number of tropical cyclones over the Northwest Pacific Ocean in the summer during the same periods.展开更多
This paper presents a scalar volt per hertz(V/f)control technique for maximum power tracking of a grid-connected wind-driven brushless doubly fed reluctance generator(BDFRG).The proposed generator has two stator windi...This paper presents a scalar volt per hertz(V/f)control technique for maximum power tracking of a grid-connected wind-driven brushless doubly fed reluctance generator(BDFRG).The proposed generator has two stator windings namely;power winding,directly connected to the grid and control winding,connected to the grid through a bi-directional converter.In order to enhance the performance of the proposed scalar-control strategy,a soft starting method is suggested to avoid the over-current of the bi-directional converter.Moreover,the capability of generator speed estimation for sensorless control is also studied.The capability of the proposed scalar-control technique is validated using a sample of simulation results.In addition,the presented simulation results ensure the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy for maximum wind-power extraction under windspeed variations.Furthermore,the results show that the estimated generator speed is in a good accordance with the actual generator speed which supports sensorless control capability.展开更多
From measurements by a circular array consisting of 18 wave gauges in a large wave tank, directional spectra of wind-generated waves in deep water are systematically determined by using maximum likehood method.The inv...From measurements by a circular array consisting of 18 wave gauges in a large wave tank, directional spectra of wind-generated waves in deep water are systematically determined by using maximum likehood method.The investigations reveal that the angular spreading of the wave energy is consistent with cos2s(θ/2) proposed by Longuet-Higgins et al. (1963, Ocean Wad Spectra,11~136), if the bimodal distributions of wave energy are not taken into account. Bimodality occurring on higher frequency than peak frequency is too rare to affect our whole results. Surprisingly, a much broader directional spreading than that of the field, which is interpreted by the strongly nonlinear energy transfer because of the very young waves in laboratory, is found. The parameter s depends on frequency in the same way as observed by Mitsuyasu et al. (1975, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 5, 750~760)and Hasselmann et al. (1980, Journal of physical Oceanography, 10, 1264~1280) in the field, and the relationship between the four nondimensional parameters sm, fo, b1 and b2, determining the directional width, and (corresponding to the inverse of wave age) are given respectively. The observed distributions are found to agree well with the suggestion of Donelan et al. (1985, Philosophical Transaction of Royal Society of London, A315, 509~562) when applied to field waves.展开更多
为了解决偏远地区电力供应不足的问题,笔者提出一种含风力发电、光伏发电及蓄电池储能的离网型风光储微电网系统。风力发电最大功率点跟踪(maximum power point tracking,MPPT)采用叶尖速比法的控制策略,光伏发电MPPT采用变步长扰动观...为了解决偏远地区电力供应不足的问题,笔者提出一种含风力发电、光伏发电及蓄电池储能的离网型风光储微电网系统。风力发电最大功率点跟踪(maximum power point tracking,MPPT)采用叶尖速比法的控制策略,光伏发电MPPT采用变步长扰动观察法的控制策略,蓄电池储能系统采用基于双闭环控制的充放电控制策略。结合广西地区实际风速及光照强度变化情况,利用MATLAB/Simulink平台对所提出的风光储微电网系统进行了建模及仿真,验证了所提系统的可靠性和控制策略的有效性。展开更多
Based on gradient wind equations, including frictional force, and considering the effect of the movement of a tropical cyclone on wind speed, the Fujita Formula is improved and further simplified, and the numerical sc...Based on gradient wind equations, including frictional force, and considering the effect of the movement of a tropical cyclone on wind speed, the Fujita Formula is improved and further simplified, and the numerical scheme for calculating the maximum wind speed radius and wind velocity distribution of a moving tropical cyclone is derived. In addition, the effect of frictional force on the internal structure of the tropical cyclone is discussed. By comparison with observational data, this numerical scheme demonstrates great advantages, i.e. it can not only describe the asymmetrical wind speed distribution of a tropical cyclone reasonably, but can also calculate the maximum wind speed in each direction within the typhoon domain much more accurately. Furthermore, the combination of calculated and analyzed wind speed distributions by the scheme is perfectly consistent with observations.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the Second Tibet Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)under grant number 2019QZKK0804the National Natural Science Foundation of China“Study on the dynamic mechanism of grassland ecosystem response to climate change in Qinghai Plateau”under grant number U20A2098.
文摘Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model uses maximum wind speed corresponding to multiple typhoons to construct sample sequence.Thresholds are usually used to filter sample sequences to make them more consistent with Poisson distribution.However,few studies have discussed the threshold setting and its impact on Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model.In this study,a sample sequence based on the data of Qinzhou meteorological station from 2005 to 2018 were constructed.We set 0%,5%,10%,20%and 30%gradient thresholds.Then,we analyzed the influence of threshold change on the calculation results of maximum wind speed in different return periods.The results showed that:(1)When the threshold increases,the maximum wind speed of each return period will decrease gradually.This indicates that the length of the sample series may have a positive effect on the return period wind speed calculation in Gumbel and Poisson-Gumbel methods.Although the augment of the threshold increases the average value of the maximum wind speed of the sample sequence,it shortens the length of the sample sequence,resulting in a lower calculated value of the maximum wind speed.However,this deviation is not large.Taking the common 10%threshold as an example,the maximum wind speed calculation deviation in the 50 a return period is about 1.9%;(2)Theoretically,the threshold is set to make the sample sequence more consistent with Poisson distribution,but this example showed that the effect is worth further discussion.Although the overall trend showed that the increase of the threshold can makeχ2 decrease,the correlation coefficient of linear fitting was only 0.182.Taking Qinzhou meteorological station data as an example,theχ2 of 20%threshold was as high as 6.35,meaning that the selected sample sequence was not ideal.
文摘Using the data on the maximum wind speed within ten minutes every month in the period 1971-2009 in Zhucheng City of Shandong Province, we conduct statistical analysis of the maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City. The results show that over thirty-nine years, the annual maximum wind speed in four seasons in Zhucheng City tends to decline. The annual maximum wind speed declines at the rate of 1.45 m/s every 10 years. It falls fastest in winter, with decline rate of 1.73 m/s every 10 years; it is close to the average annual maximum wind speed in spring and autumn, with decline rate of 1.44 m/s and 14.8 m/s every 10 years, respectively; it falls slowest in summer, and the extreme value of the maximum wind speed occurs mainly in spring. The curve of changes in the monthly maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City assumes diminishing shape of "two peaks and one trough". We conduct preliminary analysis of the windy weather situation, and put forth specific defensive measures against the hazards of strong winds in the different periods.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41930967).
文摘In this study,the movement of the maximum wind of Typhoon Rammasun(2014)was measured by the radial movement of the maximum symmetric rotational kinetic energy.The weather research and forecasting(WRF)model was used to simulate Typhoon Rammasun,and validated simulation data for the lower troposphere were analyzed to examine the physical processes responsible for the radial movement of the maximum wind.The radii,where maximum symmetric rotational kinetic energy and its maximum tendency were located,were compared to explain radial movement.The tendency in the lower troposphere is controlled by the flux convergence of symmetric rotational kinetic energy and the conversion from symmetric divergent kinetic energy to symmetric rotational kinetic energy,as well as frictional dissipation in the symmetric rotational kinetic energy budget.The inward movement before rapid intensification(RI)resulted from radial flux convergence;cyclonic circulation develops while moving inward.Stationary maximum symmetric rotational kinetic energy and RI were caused by the conversion,which was observed to be proportional to the symmetric rotational kinetic energy.Landfall increased terrain-induced friction dissipation,which led to outward movement and ended the RI.
基金supported partially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 61503348the Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 2015CFA010the 111 project under Grant B17040
文摘When the wind speed changes significantly in a permanent magnet synchronous wind power generation system,the maximum power point cannot be easily determined in a timely manner.This study proposes a maximum power reference signal search method based on fuzzy control,which is an improvement to the climbing search method.A neural network-based parameter regulator is proposed to address external wind speed fluctuations,where the parameters of a proportional-integral controller is adjusted to accurately monitor the maximum power point under different wind speed conditions.Finally,the effectiveness of this method is verified via Simulink simulation.
基金Supported by the Open Laboratory Fund of the Institute of Plateau Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration(CMA)(LPM2012005)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41205114)CMA Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201106018 and GYHY200806009)
文摘In this study, the maximum wind speed （WSmax） changes across China from 1956 to 2004 were analyzed based on observed station data, and the changes of WSmax for 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 are projected using three global climate models （GFDL_CM2_0, CCCMA_CGCM3, and MRI_CGCM2） that have participated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report （AR4）. The observed annual and seasonal WSmax and the frequency of gale days showed obvious declining trends. The annual WSmax decreased by approximately 1.46 m s^-i per decade, and the number of gale days decreased by 3.0 days per decade from 1956 to 2004. The amplitudes of the annual and seasonal WSmax decreases are larger than those of the annual and seasonal average wind speeds （WSavg）. The weakening of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons is the cause for the distinct decreases of both WSmax and WSavg over the whole China. The decrease of WSmax in the southeast coastal areas of China is related to the reduced intensity of cold waves in China and the decreasing number （and decreasing intensity） of land-falling typhoons originated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The global climate models GFDL_CM2_0, MRI_CGCM2, and EBGCM （the ensemble of above men-tioned three global climate models） consistently suggest that the annual and seasonal WSmax values will decrease during 2046-2065 and 2080 2099 relative to 1981 2000. The models also suggest that decreases in WSmax for whole China during 2046-2065 and 2080 2099 are related to both the reduced intensity of cold waves and the reduced intensity of the winter monsoon, and the decrease in WSmax in the southeast coastal areas of China is corresponding to the decreasing number of tropical cyclones over the Northwest Pacific Ocean in the summer during the same periods.
文摘This paper presents a scalar volt per hertz(V/f)control technique for maximum power tracking of a grid-connected wind-driven brushless doubly fed reluctance generator(BDFRG).The proposed generator has two stator windings namely;power winding,directly connected to the grid and control winding,connected to the grid through a bi-directional converter.In order to enhance the performance of the proposed scalar-control strategy,a soft starting method is suggested to avoid the over-current of the bi-directional converter.Moreover,the capability of generator speed estimation for sensorless control is also studied.The capability of the proposed scalar-control technique is validated using a sample of simulation results.In addition,the presented simulation results ensure the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy for maximum wind-power extraction under windspeed variations.Furthermore,the results show that the estimated generator speed is in a good accordance with the actual generator speed which supports sensorless control capability.
文摘From measurements by a circular array consisting of 18 wave gauges in a large wave tank, directional spectra of wind-generated waves in deep water are systematically determined by using maximum likehood method.The investigations reveal that the angular spreading of the wave energy is consistent with cos2s(θ/2) proposed by Longuet-Higgins et al. (1963, Ocean Wad Spectra,11~136), if the bimodal distributions of wave energy are not taken into account. Bimodality occurring on higher frequency than peak frequency is too rare to affect our whole results. Surprisingly, a much broader directional spreading than that of the field, which is interpreted by the strongly nonlinear energy transfer because of the very young waves in laboratory, is found. The parameter s depends on frequency in the same way as observed by Mitsuyasu et al. (1975, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 5, 750~760)and Hasselmann et al. (1980, Journal of physical Oceanography, 10, 1264~1280) in the field, and the relationship between the four nondimensional parameters sm, fo, b1 and b2, determining the directional width, and (corresponding to the inverse of wave age) are given respectively. The observed distributions are found to agree well with the suggestion of Donelan et al. (1985, Philosophical Transaction of Royal Society of London, A315, 509~562) when applied to field waves.
文摘为了解决偏远地区电力供应不足的问题,笔者提出一种含风力发电、光伏发电及蓄电池储能的离网型风光储微电网系统。风力发电最大功率点跟踪(maximum power point tracking,MPPT)采用叶尖速比法的控制策略,光伏发电MPPT采用变步长扰动观察法的控制策略,蓄电池储能系统采用基于双闭环控制的充放电控制策略。结合广西地区实际风速及光照强度变化情况,利用MATLAB/Simulink平台对所提出的风光储微电网系统进行了建模及仿真,验证了所提系统的可靠性和控制策略的有效性。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Grant Nos. 40425009 and 40730953
文摘Based on gradient wind equations, including frictional force, and considering the effect of the movement of a tropical cyclone on wind speed, the Fujita Formula is improved and further simplified, and the numerical scheme for calculating the maximum wind speed radius and wind velocity distribution of a moving tropical cyclone is derived. In addition, the effect of frictional force on the internal structure of the tropical cyclone is discussed. By comparison with observational data, this numerical scheme demonstrates great advantages, i.e. it can not only describe the asymmetrical wind speed distribution of a tropical cyclone reasonably, but can also calculate the maximum wind speed in each direction within the typhoon domain much more accurately. Furthermore, the combination of calculated and analyzed wind speed distributions by the scheme is perfectly consistent with observations.
