Stochastic Maximum Principle for Optimal Advertising Models with Delay and Non-Convex Control Spaces

In this paper we study optimal advertising problems that model the introduction of a new product into the market in the presence of carryover effects of the advertisement and with memory effects in the level of goodwill. In particular, we let the dynamics of the product goodwill to depend on the past, and also on past advertising efforts. We treat the problem by means of the stochastic Pontryagin maximum principle, that here is considered for a class of problems where in the state equation either the state or the control depend on the past. Moreover the control acts on the martingale term and the space of controls U can be chosen to be non-convex but now the space of controls U can be chosen to be non-convex. The maximum principle is thus formulated using a first-order adjoint Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs), which can be explicitly computed due to the specific characteristics of the model, and a second-order adjoint relation.

The Accelerated Expansion of the Universe in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle

The main aim of the paper is to present (and at the same time offer) a differ-ent perspective for the analysis of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. A perspective that can surely be considered as being “in parallel” to the tradition-al ones, such as those based, for example, on the hypotheses of “Dark Matter” and “Dark Energy”, or better as a “com-possible” perspective, because it is not understood as being “exclusive”. In fact, it is an approach that, when con-firmed by experimental results, always keeps its validity from an “operative” point of view. This is because, in analogy to the traditional perspectives, on the basis of Popper’s Falsification Principle the corresponding “Generative” Logic on which it is based has not the property of the perfect induction. The basic difference then only consists in the fact that the Evolution of the Universe is now modeled by considering the Universe as a Self-Organizing System, which is thus analyzed in the light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle.

Beamspace maximum likelihood algorithm based on sum and difference beams for elevation estimation

Beamspace super-resolution methods for elevation estimation in multipath environment has attracted significant attention, especially the beamspace maximum likelihood(BML)algorithm. However, the difference beam is rarely used in superresolution methods, especially in low elevation estimation. The target airspace information in the difference beam is different from the target airspace information in the sum beam. And the use of difference beams does not significantly increase the complexity of the system and algorithms. Thus, this paper applies the difference beam to the beamformer to improve the elevation estimation performance of BML algorithm. And the direction and number of beams can be adjusted according to the actual needs. The theoretical target elevation angle root means square error(RMSE) and the computational complexity of the proposed algorithms are analyzed. Finally, computer simulations and real data processing results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Three-Drug Therapies in Psychiatry in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle and the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”—D.D. 23 Luglio 2023, Tempo Ordinario (3.00 e 10.20)

The present paper aims at showing the possible adoption in Psychiatry of a general methodology finalized to prescribe the most appropriate Therapy based on the knowledge of its correlative effects in advance, instead of recognizing them ex post. The specific case here considered is the “bipolar disorder”, in which the adoption of three different drugs is the most common practice, although with a possible differentiation between the prescription in the morning and in the evening, respectively. Thus, the proposed methodology will consider the Ordinal Interactions between the various drugs by evaluating their combined effects, which will result as being not a simple additive “sum”, because they are evaluated on the basis of the Maximum Ordinality Principle (MOP) and, in addition, in Adherence to the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”. In this way the Methodology here proposed is able to suggest how to account for the synergistic effects of the various drugs, especially when the latter are characterized by different concentrations and, at the same time, by generally different half-lives respectively.

Solution to the “Three-Body Problem” in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle, as a “Suggestion” for a Ri-Orientation of the Present Scientific Perspective in “Favor” of the “Irreducible Quality”

This paper presents the Solution to the “Three-body Problem” in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle. In the first part, however, it starts with the Solution to the Solar System, made up of “11 Bodies”. This is because, in such a context, the “Three-body Problem” can be analyzed in its all descriptive possibilities. Nonetheless, the paper also presents the Solution to the “Three-body Problem” with reference to Systems totally independent from the Solar System, such as, for example, the “Triple Stars” and the “Triple Galaxies”. In this way, the paper offers a sufficiently complete framework concerning the Solution to the “Three-body Problem”, always in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle, described in detail in Appendix A.

Generativity of Self-Organizing Processes and Their Correlative Description in Terms of a Formal Language of Meta-Ordinal Generative Nature, in the Light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle and the Explicit Solution to the “Three-Body Problem”

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the internal processes of Self-Organizing Systems represent a unique and singular process, characterized by their specific generativity. This process can be modeled using the Maximum Ordinality Principle and its associated formal language, known as the “Incipient” Differential Calculus (IDC).

The study of a neutron spectrum unfolding method based on particle swarm optimization combined with maximum likelihood expectation maximization

The neutron spectrum unfolding by Bonner sphere spectrometer(BSS) is considered a complex multidimensional model,which requires complex mathematical methods to solve the first kind of Fredholm integral equation. In order to solve the problem of the maximum likelihood expectation maximization(MLEM) algorithm which is easy to suffer the pitfalls of local optima and the particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm which is easy to get unreasonable flight direction and step length of particles, which leads to the invalid iteration and affect efficiency and accuracy, an improved PSO-MLEM algorithm, combined of PSO and MLEM algorithm, is proposed for neutron spectrum unfolding. The dynamic acceleration factor is used to balance the ability of global and local search, and improves the convergence speed and accuracy of the algorithm. Firstly, the Monte Carlo method was used to simulated the BSS to obtain the response function and count rates of BSS. In the simulation of count rate, four reference spectra from the IAEA Technical Report Series No. 403 were used as input parameters of the Monte Carlo method. The PSO-MLEM algorithm was used to unfold the neutron spectrum of the simulated data and was verified by the difference of the unfolded spectrum to the reference spectrum. Finally, the 252Cf neutron source was measured by BSS, and the PSO-MLEM algorithm was used to unfold the experimental neutron spectrum.Compared with maximum entropy deconvolution(MAXED), PSO and MLEM algorithm, the PSO-MLEM algorithm has fewer parameters and automatically adjusts the dynamic acceleration factor to solve the problem of local optima. The convergence speed of the PSO-MLEM algorithm is 1.4 times and 3.1 times that of the MLEM and PSO algorithms. Compared with PSO, MLEM and MAXED, the correlation coefficients of PSO-MLEM algorithm are increased by 33.1%, 33.5% and 1.9%, and the relative mean errors are decreased by 98.2%, 97.8% and 67.4%.

Quality Evaluation and Its Application to Surface Water Ecosystem Based on Maximum Flux Principle

Based on the maximum flux principle(MFP),a water quality evaluation model for surface water ecosystem is presented by using self-organization map(SOM) neural network simulation algorithm from the aspect of systematic structural evolution.This evaluation model is applied to the case of surface water ecosystem in Xindu District of Chengdu City in China.The values reflecting the water quality of five cross-sections of the system at different developing stages are obtained,with stable values of 1.438,2.952,1.86...

A modified method to calculate reliability index using maximum entropy principle

Routine reliability index method, first order second moment (FOSM), may not ensure convergence of iteration when the performance function is strongly nonlinear. A modified method was proposed to calculate reliability index based on maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle. To achieve this goal, the complicated iteration of first order second moment (FOSM) method was replaced by the calculation of entropy density function. Local convergence of Newton iteration method utilized to calculate entropy density function was proved, which ensured the convergence of iteration when calculating reliability index. To promote calculation efficiency, Newton down-hill algorithm was incorporated into calculating entropy density function and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed to assess the efficiency of the presented method. Two numerical examples were presented to verify the validation of the presented method. Moreover, the execution and advantages of the presented method were explained. From Example 1, after seven times iteration, the proposed method is capable of calculating the reliability index when the performance function is strongly nonlinear and at the same time the proposed method can preserve the calculation accuracy; From Example 2, the reliability indices calculated using the proposed method, FOSM and MCS are 3.823 9, 3.813 0 and 3.827 6, respectively, and the according iteration times are 5, 36 and 10 6 , which shows that the presented method can improve calculation accuracy without increasing computational cost for the performance function of which the reliability index can be calculated using first order second moment (FOSM) method.

Heuristic techniques for maximum likelihood localization of radioactive sources via a sensor network

Maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)is an effective method for localizing radioactive sources in a given area.However,it requires an exhaustive search for parameter estimation,which is time-consuming.In this study,heuristic techniques were employed to search for radiation source parameters that provide the maximum likelihood by using a network of sensors.Hence,the time consumption of MLE would be effectively reduced.First,the radiation source was detected using the k-sigma method.Subsequently,the MLE was applied for parameter estimation using the readings and positions of the detectors that have detected the radiation source.A comparative study was performed in which the estimation accuracy and time consump-tion of the MLE were evaluated for traditional methods and heuristic techniques.The traditional MLE was performed via a grid search method using fixed and multiple resolutions.Additionally,four commonly used heuristic algorithms were applied:the firefly algorithm(FFA),particle swarm optimization(PSO),ant colony optimization(ACO),and artificial bee colony(ABC).The experiment was conducted using real data collected by the Low Scatter Irradiator facility at the Savannah River National Laboratory as part of the Intelligent Radiation Sensing System program.The comparative study showed that the estimation time was 3.27 s using fixed resolution MLE and 0.59 s using multi-resolution MLE.The time consumption for the heuristic-based MLE was 0.75,0.03,0.02,and 0.059 s for FFA,PSO,ACO,and ABC,respectively.The location estimation error was approximately 0.4 m using either the grid search-based MLE or the heuristic-based MLE.Hence,heuristic-based MLE can provide comparable estimation accuracy through a less time-consuming process than traditional MLE.

A RISK-SENSITIVE STOCHASTIC MAXIMUM PRINCIPLE FOR OPTIMAL CONTROL OF JUMP DIFFUSIONS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

A stochastic maximum principle for the risk-sensitive optimal control prob- lem of jump diffusion processes with an exponential-of-integral cost functional is derived assuming that the value function is smooth, where the diffusion and jump term may both depend on the control. The form of the maximum principle is similar to its risk-neutral counterpart. But the adjoint equations and the maximum condition heavily depend on the risk-sensitive parameter. As applications, a linear-quadratic risk-sensitive control problem is solved by using the maximum principle derived and explicit optimal control is obtained.

LOWER INEQUALITIES OF HEAT SEMIGROUPS BY USING PARABOLIC MAXIMUM PRINCIPLE

Using parabolic maximum principle, we apply the analytic method to obtain lower comparison inequalities for non-negative weak supersolutions of the heat equation associated with a regular strongly p-local Dirichlet form on the abstract metric measure space. As an application we obtain lower estimates for heat kernels on some Riemannian manifolds.

Joint polarization and DOA estimation based on improved maximum likelihood estimator and performance analysis for conformal array

The conformal array can make full use of the aperture,save space,meet the requirements of aerodynamics,and is sensitive to polarization information.It has broad application prospects in military,aerospace,and communication fields.The joint polarization and direction-of-arrival(DOA)estimation based on the conformal array and the theoretical analysis of its parameter estimation performance are the key factors to promote the engineering application of the conformal array.To solve these problems,this paper establishes the wave field signal model of the conformal array.Then,for the case of a single target,the cost function of the maximum likelihood(ML)estimator is rewritten with Rayleigh quotient from a problem of maximizing the ratio of quadratic forms into those of minimizing quadratic forms.On this basis,rapid parameter estimation is achieved with the idea of manifold separation technology(MST).Compared with the modified variable projection(MVP)algorithm,it reduces the computational complexity and improves the parameter estimation performance.Meanwhile,the MST is used to solve the partial derivative of the steering vector.Then,the theoretical performance of ML,the multiple signal classification(MUSIC)estimator and Cramer-Rao bound(CRB)based on the conformal array are derived respectively,which provides theoretical foundation for the engineering application of the conformal array.Finally,the simulation experiment verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Maximum modulus principle estimates for one dimensional fractional diffusion equation

We present scheme I for solving one-dimensional fractional diffusion equation with variable coefficients based on the maximum modulus principle and two Grunwald approxima- tions. Scheme II is obtained by using classic Crank-Nicolson approximations in order to improve the time convergence. Schemes are proved to be unconditionally stable and second-order accuracy in spatial grid size for the problem with order of fractional derivative belonging to [（√17- 1）/2, 2] using the maximum modulus principle. A numerical example is given to confirm the theoretical analysis result.

Maximum principle for anticipated recursive stochastic optimal control problem with delay and Lvy processes

In this paper, we study the stochastic maximum principle for optimal control prob- lem of anticipated forward-backward system with delay and Lovy processes as the random dis- turbance. This control system can be described by the anticipated forward-backward stochastic differential equations with delay and L^vy processes （AFBSDEDLs）, we first obtain the existence and uniqueness theorem of adapted solutions for AFBSDEDLs; combining the AFBSDEDLs＇ preliminary result with certain classical convex variational techniques, the corresponding maxi- mum principle is proved.

Weighted Maximum Likelihood Technique for Logistic Regression

In this paper, a weighted maximum likelihood technique (WMLT) for the logistic regression model is presented. This method depended on a weight function that is continuously adaptable using Mahalanobis distances for predictor variables. Under the model, the asymptotic consistency of the suggested estimator is demonstrated and properties of finite-sample are also investigated via simulation. In simulation studies and real data sets, it is observed that the newly proposed technique demonstrated the greatest performance among all estimators compared.

Probability Distribution of SARS-Cov-2 (COVID) Infectivity Following Onset of Symptoms: Analysis from First Principles

The phasing out of protective measures by governments and public health agencies, despite continued seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic, leaves individuals who are concerned for their health with two basic options over which they have control: 1) minimize risk of infection by being vaccinated and by wearing a face mask when appropriate, and 2) minimize risk of transmission upon infection by self-isolating. For the latter to be effective, it is essential to have an accurate sense of the probability of infectivity as a function of time following the onset of symptoms. Epidemiological considerations suggest that the period of infectivity follows a lognormal distribution. This proposition is tested empirically by construction of the lognormal probability density function and cumulative distribution function based on quantiles of infectivity reported by several independent investigations. A comprehensive examination of a prototypical ideal clinical study, based on general statistical principles (the Principle of Maximum Entropy and the Central Limit Theorem) reveals that the probability of infectivity is a lognormal random variable. Subsequent evolution of new variants may change the parameters of the distribution, which can be updated by the methods in this paper, but the form of the probability function is expected to remain lognormal as this is the most probable distribution consistent with mathematical requirements and available information.

MAXIMUM PRINCIPLE FOR STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEM WITH DISTRIBUTED DELAYS

This paper is concerned with a Pontryagin's maximum principle for the stochastic optimal control problem with distributed delays given by integrals of not necessarily linear functions of state or control variables.By virtue of the duality method and the generalized anticipated backward stochastic differential equations,we establish a necessary maximum principle and a sufficient verification theorem.In particular,we deal with the controlled stochastic system where the distributed delays enter both the state and the control.To explain the theoretical results,we apply them to a dynamic advertising problem.

A Mean-Field Stochastic Maximum Principle for Optimal Control of Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps via Malliavin Calculus

This paper considers a mean-field type stochastic control problem where the dynamics is governed by a forward and backward stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by Lévy processes and the information available to the controller is possibly less than the overall information. All the system coefficients and the objective performance functional are allowed to be random, possibly non-Markovian. Malliavin calculus is employed to derive a maximum principle for the optimal control of such a system where the adjoint process is explicitly expressed.

The Maximum Principle for Fully Coupled Forward-backward Stochastic Control System

The maximum principle for fully coupled forward-backward stochastic control system in the global form is proved, under the assumption that the forward diffusion coefficient does not contain the control variable, but the control domain is not necessarily convex.