Output Linearization of Single-Input Single-Output Fuzzy System to Improve Accuracy and Performance

For fuzzy systems to be implemented effectively,the fuzzy membership function(MF)is essential.A fuzzy system(FS)that implements precise input and output MFs is presented to enhance the performance and accuracy of single-input single-output(SISO)FSs and introduce the most applicable input and output MFs protocol to linearize the fuzzy system’s output.Utilizing a variety of non-linear techniques,a SISO FS is simulated.The results of FS experiments conducted in comparable conditions are then compared.The simulated results and the results of the experimental setup agree fairly well.The findings of the suggested model demonstrate that the relative error is abated to a sufficient range(≤±10%)and that the mean absolute percentage error(MPAE)is reduced by around 66.2%.The proposed strategy to reduceMAPE using an FS improves the system’s performance and control accuracy.By using the best input and output MFs protocol,the energy and financial efficiency of every SISO FS can be improved with very little tuning of MFs.The proposed fuzzy system performed far better than other modern days approaches available in the literature.

Forecasting Inflation Rate of Zambia Using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing

In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.

Theoretical prediction and validation of global horizontal solar irradiance for a tropical climate in India

This paper aims to propose monthly models responsible for the theoretical evaluation of the global horizontal irradiance of a tropical region in India which is Sivagangai situated in Tamilnadu. The actual measured global horizontal irradiance hails from a 5 MW solar power plant station located at Sivagangai in Tamilnadu. The data were monitored from May 2011 to April 2013. The theoretical assessment was conducted differently by employing a programming platform called Microsoft Visual Basic 2010 Express. A graphical user interface was created using Visual Basic 2010 Express, which provided the evaluation of empirical parameters for model formulation such as daily sunshine duration （5）, maximum possible sunshine hour duration （S0）, extra terrestrial horizontal global irradiance （H0） and extra terrestrial direct normal irradiance （G0）. The proposed regression models were validated by the significance of statistical indicators such as mean bias error, root mean square error and mean percentage error from the predicted and the actual values for the region considered. Comparison was made between the proposed monthly models and the existing normalized models for global horizontal irradiance evaluation.