Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

A COUPLED MODEL FOR MUILTIPHASE FLUID FLOW AND SEDIMENTATION DEFORMATION IN OIL RESERVOIR AND ITS NUMERICAL SIMULATION

A mathematical model for coupled multiphase fluid flow and sedi- mentation deformation is developed based on fluid-solid interaction mechanism.A finite difference-finite element numerical approach is presented.The results of an example show that the fluid-solid coupled effect has great influence on multiphase fluid flow and reservoir recovery performances,and the coupled model has practical significance for oilfield development.

Wave-tide-surge coupled model simulation for Typhoon Maemi

Reasonably accurate predictions of wave heights, current and elevations during storm events are vital information for marine operations and design of offshore and coastal structures in the surrounding seas of Korea Peninsula. Ocean circulation and wind-wave models have traditionally been run separately, but recent researches have identified potentially important interactions between current and wave motions. The coupled tide-surge and the WAM wave models at the atmospheric boundary layer and bottom boundary layer around the Korea Peninsula are applied for the Typhoon Maemi （0314） event. Communication between the models is aehievod using MPI. Results are compared with coastal tide gauges and moored wave buoys and comparisons are also made between wave computations from the coupled model and the independent third generation wave models. Results suggest that applying the fide-surge-coupled model can be an effective means of obtaining wave and storm surge predictions simultaneously.

A Hybrid Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model and Its Simulation of ENSO and Atmospheric Responses

A new hybrid coupled model(HCM) is presented in this study, which consists of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model. The ocean component is the intermediate ocean model(IOM)of the intermediate coupled model(ICM) used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS). The atmospheric component is ECHAM5, the fifth version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model. The HCM integrates its atmospheric and oceanic components by using an anomaly coupling strategy. A100-year simulation has been made with the HCM and its simulation skills are evaluated, including the interannual variability of SST over the tropical Pacific and the ENSO-related responses of the global atmosphere. The model shows irregular occurrence of ENSO events with a spectral range between two and five years. The amplitude and lifetime of ENSO events and the annual phase-locking of SST anomalies are also reproduced realistically. Despite the slightly stronger variance of SST anomalies over the central Pacific than observed in the HCM, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies related to ENSO,such as sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation, are in broad agreement with observations. Therefore, this model can not only simulate the ENSO variability, but also reproduce the global atmospheric variability associated with ENSO, thereby providing a useful modeling tool for ENSO studies. Further model applications of ENSO modulations by ocean–atmosphere processes, and of ENSO-related climate prediction, are also discussed.

SIMULATION OF SUMMER CLIMATE IN CHINA DURING 1997 AND 1998 USING A REGIONAL AIR-SEA COUPLED MODEL

Using the regional air-sea coupled climate model RegCM3-POM,a series of numerical experiments are performed to simulate the summer climate in 1997 and 1998 with different coupling time steps.The results show that the coupled model has good performance on the simulation of the summer sea surface temperature(SST) in 1997 and 1998,and the simulation results of CPL1(with the coupling time step at 1 hour) are similar to those of CPL6(with the coupling time step at 6 hours).The coupled model can well simulate SST differences between 1997 and 1998.As for the simulation of the drought in 1997 and the flood in 1998,the results of CPL6 are more accurate.The coupled model can well simulate the drought in 1997 over North China,and compared with the results of the atmosphere model RegCM3,the simulation ability of the coupled model is improved.The coupling model has better ability in the simulation of the circulation in the middle and low levels,and the water vapor transportation in the coupling model is reasonable in both 1997 and 1998.RegCM3(an uncoupled model) cannot correctly simulate the transportation path differences between 1997 and 1998,but the coupled model can simulate the differences well.

Simulation of the Asian Monsoon by IAP AGCM Coupled with an Advanced Land Surface Model(IAP94)

In this paper, the global and regional features of the seasonal variation of general circulation, and especially the Asian monsoon simulated by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Two-level AGCM coupled with a sophisticated land-surface model (IAP94-GCM) are presented and compared with the observation. The comparison is made by using the equilibrium multiyear seasonal cycle climate from a 100-year integration. In the integration sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice are taken from the observed climatological data (with seasonal variation) because our purpose is to see the improvement of simulation due to the coupling with an advanced land surface model. Overall, the IAP94-GCM provides a reasonably realistic simulation of the interseasonal and intraseasonal climatology of the Asian monsoon and yields an important information that sheds light on the thermal underpinning and the thermodynamics of the seasonal and even multiscale variabilities associated with the Asian summer monsoon.

Coupled simulation of recirculation zonal firebox model and detailed kinetic reactor model in an industrial ethylene cracking furnace

A coupled system simulating both firebox and reactor is established to study the naphtha pyrolysis in an industrial tubular furnace.The firebox model is based on zone method including combustion,radiation,and convection to simulate heat transfer in the furnace.A two-dimensional recirculation model is proposed to estimate the flow field in furnace.The reactor model integrates the feedstock reconstruction model,an auto-generator of detail kinetic schemes,and the reactor simulation model to simulate the reaction process in the tubular coil.The coupled simulation result is compared with industrial process and shows agreement within short computation time.

Application of a Coupled Land Surface-Hydrological Model to Flood Simulation in the Huaihe River Basin of China

A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) was investigated using two different models: a coupled land surface hydrological model(CLHMS), and a large-scale hydrological model(LSX-HMS). The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting.

Simulating Eastern-and Central-Pacific Type ENSO Using a Simple Coupled Model

Severe biases exist in state-of-the-art general circulation models（GCMs） in capturing realistic central-Pacific（CP） El Nino structures. At the same time, many observational analyses have emphasized that thermocline（TH） feedback and zonal advective（ZA） feedback play dominant roles in the development of eastern-Pacific（EP） and CP El Nino-Southern Oscillation（ENSO）, respectively. In this work, a simple linear air-sea coupled model, which can accurately depict the strength distribution of the TH and ZA feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific, is used to investigate these two types of El Nino. The results indicate that the model can reproduce the main characteristics of CP ENSO if the TH feedback is switched off and the ZA feedback is retained as the only positive feedback, confirming the dominant role played by ZA feedback in the development of CP ENSO. Further experiments indicate that, through a simple nonlinear control approach, many ENSO characteristics,including the existence of both CP and EP El Nino and the asymmetries between El Nino and La Nina, can be successfully captured using the simple linear air-sea coupled model. These analyses indicate that an accurate depiction of the climatological sea surface temperature distribution and the related ZA feedback, which are the subject of severe biases in GCMs, is very important in simulating a realistic CP El Nino.

Numerical simulation research on dynamical variation of permeability of coal around roadway based on gas-solid coupling model for gassy coal

Due to the change of initial stress state caused by roadway excavation, the permeability of the coal body may be changed during the excavation process. In this paper, according to the different stress states, the coal around the roadway was divided into the seepage open zone, seepage orientation zone, seepage decay zone and original seepage zone along the radial direction of the roadway. The loaded gassy coal was treated as a viscoelastic and plastic softened medium, and the mechanical behaviors of the viscoelastic zone, plastic softened zone and broken zone around the roadway were analyzed with the consideration of the loading creep, softening and expansion effect of the gassy coal. According to the law of conservation of mass and the Darcy law, the flow-solid coupled model for the gas transportation of the coal around the roadway was established considering the dynamic evolution of the adsorption characteristics, porosity and permeability of the coal, and the simulation software COMSOL was utilized to numerically simulate the stress state and gas flow regularity around the coal, which provided meaningful reference for investigating the stability of the coal and rock around the roadway.

Towards Production and Energy Coupling System Modeling and Simulation for Energy Optimization in the Process Industry

The production and energy coupling system is used to mainly present energy flow, material flow, information flow, and their coupling interaction. Through the modeling and simulation of this system, the performance of energy flow can be analyzed and optimized in the process industry. In order to study this system, the component based hybrid Petri net methodology (CpnHPN) is proposed, synthesizing a number of extended Petri net methods and using the concept of energy place, material place, and information place. Through the interface place in CpnHPN, the component based encapsulation is established, which enables the production and energy coupling system to be built, analyzed, and optimized on the multi-level framework. Considering the block and brief simulation for hybrid system, the CpnHPN model is simulated with Simulink/Stateflow. To illustrate the use of the proposed methodology, the application of CpnHPN in the energy optimization of chlorine balance system is provided.

Multi-dimensional Simulation of Phase Change by a 0D-2D Model Coupling via Stefan Condition

Considering phase changes associated with a high-temperature molten material cooled down from the outside,this work presents an improvement of the modelling and the numerical simulation of such processes for an application pertaining to the safety of light water nuclear reactors.Postulating a core meltdown accident,the behaviour of the core melt(aka corium)into a steel vessel is of tremendous importance when evaluating the vessel integrity.Evaluating correctly the heat fluxes requires the numerical simulation of the interaction between the liquid material and its solid counterpart which forms during the solidification process,but also may melt back.To simulate this configuration,encoun-tered in various industrial applications,one considers a bi-phase model constituted by a liquid phase in contact and interaction with its solid phase.The liquid phase may solidify in presence of low energetic source,while the solid phase may melt due to an intense heat flux from the high-temperature liquid.In the frame of the in-house legacy code,several simplifying assumptions(0D multi-layer discretization,instantaneous heat transfer via a quadratic temperature profile in solids)are made for the modelling of such phase changes.In the present work,these shortcomings are illustrated and further overcome by solving a 2D heat conduction model in the solid by a mixed Raviart-Thomas finite element method coupled to the liquid phase due to heat and mass exchanges through Stefan condition.The liquid phase is modeled with a 0D multi-layer approach.The 0D-liquid and 2D-solid mod-els are coupled by a Stefan like phase change interface model.Several sanity checks are performed to assess the validity of the approach on 1D and 2D academical configurations for which exact or reference solutions are available.Then more advanced situations(genu-ine multi-dimensional phase changes and an"industrial-like scenario")are simulated to verify the appropriate behavior of the obtained coupled simulation scheme.

Thermo-mechanical coupled particle model for rock

A thermo-mechanical coupled particle model for simulation of thermally-induced rock damage based on the particle simulation method was proposed.The simulation results of three verification examples,for which the analytical solutions are available,demonstrate the correctness and usefulness of the thermo-mechanical coupled particle model.This model is applied to simulating an application example with two cases：one is temperature-independent elastic modulus and strength,while the other is temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength.The related simulation results demonstrate that microscopic crack initiation and propagation process with consideration of temperature-independent and temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength are different and therefore,the corresponding macroscopic failure patterns of rock are also different.On the contrary,considering the temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength has no or little effect on the heating conduction behavior.Numerical results,which are obtained by using the proposed model with temperature-dependent elastic modulus and strength,agree well with the experimental results.This also reveals that the rock subjected to heating experiences much more cracking than the rock subjected to cooling.

A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.

Biases of the Arctic climate in a regional ocean-sea iceatmosphere coupled model: an annual validation

The Coupling of three model components, WRF/PCE （polar climate extension version of weather research and forecasting model （WRF））, ROMS （regional ocean modeling system）, and CICE （community ice code）, has been implemented, and the regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model named WRF/PCE- ROMS-CICE has been validated against ERA-interim reanalysis data sets for 1989. To better understand the reasons that generate model biases, the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE results were compared with those of its components, the WRF/PCE and the ROMS-CICE. There are cold biases in surface air temperature （SAT） over the Arctic Ocean, which contribute to the sea ice concentration （SIC） and sea surface temperature （SST） biases in the results of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. The cold SAT biases also appear in results of the atmo- spheric component with a mild temperature in winter and similar temperature in summer. Compared to results from the WRF/PCE, due to influences of different distributions of the SIC and the SST and inclusion of interactions of air-sea-sea ice in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE, the simulated SAT has new features. These influences also lead to apparent differences at higher levels of the atmosphere, which can be thought as responses to biases in the SST and sea ice extent. There are similar atmospheric responses in feature of distribution to sea ice biases at 700 and 500 hPa, and the strength of responses weakens when the pressure decreases in January. The atmospheric responses in July reach up to 200 hPa. There are surplus sea ice ex- tents in the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, the Davis Strait and the Chukchi Sea in winter and in the Beau- fort Sea, the Chukchi Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea in summer in the ROMS-CICE. These differences in the SIC distribution can all be explained by those in the SST distributions. These features in the simulated SST and SIC from ROMS-CICE also appear in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. It is shown that the performance of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE is determined to a large extent by its components, the WRF/PCE and the ROMS-CICE.

Simulation and Analysis of China Climate Using Two-Way Interactive Atmosphere-Vegetation Model (RIEMS-AVIM)

In this paper, an Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model （AVIM） is coupled to the Regional Integrated Environment Model System （RIEMS）, and a 10-year integration for China is performed using the RIEMS-AVIM. The analysis of the results of the 10-year integration shows that the characters of the spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over China are well simulated. The patterns of simulated surface sensible and latent heat fluxes match well with the spatial climatological atlas： the values of winter surface sensible and latent heat fluxes are both lower than climatological values over the whole country. Summer surface sensible heat flux is higher than climatological values in western China and lower in eastern China, while summer surface latent heat flux is higher than climatological values in the eastern and lower in the western. Seasonal variations of simulated temperature and precipitation of RIMES-AVIM agree with those of the observed. Simulated temperature is lower than the observed in the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China for the whole year, slightly lower in the remaining regions in winter, but consistent with the observed in summer. The simulated temperature of RIEMS-AVIM is higher in winter and lower in summer than that of RIEMS, which shows that the simulated temperature of RIEMS-AVIM is closer to the observed value. Simulated precipitation is excessive in the first half of the year, but consistent with the observed in the second half of the year. The simulated summer precipitation of RIEMS-AVIM has significant improvement compared to that of RIEMS, which is less and closer to the observed value. The interannual variations of temperature and precipitation are also fairly well simulated, with temperature simulation being superior to precipitation simulation. The interannual variation of simulated temperature is significantly correlated with the observed in Northeast China, the Transition Region, South China, and the Tibetan Plateau, but the correlation between precipitation simulation and observation is only significant in Northwest China.

A Hybrid Local/Nonlocal Continuum Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of Fracture in Brittle Materials

Classical continuum mechanics which leads to a local continuum model,encounters challenges when the discontinuity appears,while peridynamics that falls into the category of nonlocal continuum mechanics suffers from a high computational cost.A hybrid model coupling classical continuum mechanics with peridynamics can avoid both disadvantages.This paper describes the hybrid model and its adaptive coupling approach which dynamically updates the coupling domains according to crack propagations for brittle materials.Then this hybrid local/nonlocal continuum model is applied to fracture simulation.Some numerical examples like a plate with a hole,Brazilian disk,notched plate and beam,are performed for verification and validation.In addition,a peridynamic software is introduced,which was recently developed for the simulation of the hybrid local/nonlocal continuum model.

Water and heat transport in hilly red soil of southern China:II. Modeling and simulation

Simulation models of heat and water transport have not been rigorously tested for the red soils of southern China. Based on the theory of nonisothermal water-heat coupled transfer, a simulation model, programmed in Visual Basic 6.0, was developed to predict the coupled transfer of water and heat in hilly red soil. A series of soil column experiments for soil water and heat transfer, including soil columns with closed and evaporating top ends, were used to test the simulation model. Results showed that in the closed columns, the temporal and spatial distribution of moisture and heat could be very well predicted by the model, while in the evaporating columns, the simulated soil water contents were somewhat different from the observed ones. In the heat flow equation by Taylor and Lary (1964), the effect of soil water evaporation on the heat flow is not involved, which may be the main reason for the differences between simulated and observed results. The predicted temperatures were not in agreement with the observed one with thermal conductivities calculated by de Vries and Wierenga equations, so that it is suggested that Kh, soil heat conductivity, be multiplied by 8.0 for the first 6.5 h and by 1.2 later on. Sensitivity analysis of soil water and heat coefficients showed that the saturated hydraulic conductivity, KS, and the water diffusivity, D(θ), had great effects on soil water transport; the variation of soil porosity led to the difference of soil thermal properties, and accordingly changed temperature redistribution, which would affect water redistribution.