As part of its further opening-up initiatives for the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020), China will accelerate the implementation of free trade agreement strategies and create free trade area networks with high s...As part of its further opening-up initiatives for the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020), China will accelerate the implementation of free trade agreement strategies and create free trade area networks with high standards-in which the development of mega-regional trade agreements(mega-RTAs) is a key component. This paper creates a large global general equilibrium numerical model system comprising 29 economies, and precisely models the free trade agreements' effects based on the progress of ongoing regional trade agreement negotiations. Then, a counterfactual simulation method is employed to quantitatively evaluate and compare the potential economic effects of China's existing large regional trade agreement negotiations. Simulated results lead to the following findings:(1) All these free trade agreements will increase China's welfare, output, employment and trade. Among them, the trade effect is the strongest, followed by output and employment effects, and welfare effect is relatively small.(2) Other members out of the free trade agreements all benefit. In comparison, smaller and more export-dependent economies benefit more, while China will dominate the negotiations given its comparative gains and contributions.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (NSFC) "Study on Creating a New Pattern of Comprehensive Opening-Up throughLand and Sea Type Internal and External Linkage, and East-West Type Two-Way Opening " (15ZDC017)
文摘As part of its further opening-up initiatives for the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020), China will accelerate the implementation of free trade agreement strategies and create free trade area networks with high standards-in which the development of mega-regional trade agreements(mega-RTAs) is a key component. This paper creates a large global general equilibrium numerical model system comprising 29 economies, and precisely models the free trade agreements' effects based on the progress of ongoing regional trade agreement negotiations. Then, a counterfactual simulation method is employed to quantitatively evaluate and compare the potential economic effects of China's existing large regional trade agreement negotiations. Simulated results lead to the following findings:(1) All these free trade agreements will increase China's welfare, output, employment and trade. Among them, the trade effect is the strongest, followed by output and employment effects, and welfare effect is relatively small.(2) Other members out of the free trade agreements all benefit. In comparison, smaller and more export-dependent economies benefit more, while China will dominate the negotiations given its comparative gains and contributions.
