EFFECTS OF CONDENSATION HEATING AND SURFACE FLUXES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTH CHINA MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)

A sensitive numerical simulation study is carried out to investigate the effects of condensation heating and surface fluxes on the development of a South China MCS that occurred during 23 – 24 May 1998. The results reveal the following: (1) Condensation heating plays an important role in the development of MCS. In every different stage, without condensation heating, MCS precipitation is significantly reduced, and quickly dissipates. (2) Condensation heating demonstrates most importantly during the early development stages of MCS vortex; as the vortex develops stronger, the condensation heating effects reduces. (3) By affecting the MCS development processes, condensation heating also influences the formation of MCS mesoscale environment structure features such as low-level jet (mLLJ), upper-level divergence. (4) By changing the antecedent environmental circulation, the surface fluxes also play an important role in the development of MCS. Because of the surface heating, pressure declines over the heavy rainfall and MCS happening regions, which results in the intensification of southerly flows from the ocean along the South China coastline areas, and leads to the enhancement of horizontal convergence and increase of vapor amount in the lower layer. All of these make the atmosphere more unstable and more favorable for the convection.

The Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over East Asia in Warm Seasons

Mesoscale convective system (MCS) cloud clusters,defined using an objective recognition analysis based on hourly geostationary infrared satellite data over East Asia during the warm seasons of 1996-2008 (except 2004),were investigated in this study.The geographical pattern of MCS distribution over East Asia shows several high-frequency centers at low latitudes,including the Indo-China peninsula,the Bay of Bengal,the Andaman Sea,the Brahmaputra river delta,the south China coastal region,and the Philippine Islands.There are several middle-frequency centers in the middle latitudes,e.g.,the central-east of the Tibet Plateau,the Plateau of west Sichuan,Mount Wuyi,and the Sayan Mountains in Russia;whereas in Lake Baikal,the Tarim Basin,the Taklimakan Desert,the Sea of Japan,and the Sea of Okhotsk,rare MCS distributions are observed.MCSs are most intensely active in summer,with the highest monthly frequency in July,which is partly associated with the breaking out and prevailing of the summer monsoon in East Asia.An obvious diurnal cycle feature is also found in MCS activities,which shows that MCSs are triggered in the afternoon,mature in the evening,and dissipate at night.MCS patterns over East Asia can be characterized as small,short-lived,or elongated,which move slowly and usually lead to heavy rains or floods.

Understanding the Split Characteristics of the Tropical Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) of April 9, 2018, in Northern Ghana Using Infrasound Data

The split characteristics of the tropical Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) of April 9, 2018, in northern Ghana were studied using infrasound data measured by the mobile array (I68CI) which was deployed by C?te d’Ivoire National Data Center (NDC) in collaboration with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). These infrasound measurements were made during a measurement campaign from January 1st, 2018 to December 31, 2018, in northeast Cote d’Ivoire, precisely in Comoe National Park. Graphic Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (GPMCC) method based on a progressive study of the correlation functions was used to analyze and visualize data. The infrasound detection from this MCS shows clearly a division of the MCS structure into 2 distinct subsystems under the effect of internal and external constraints not well known but related to convection;a smaller subsystem in the north, associated with an area of intense rainfall of about 30 mm/hour and located at 9.5°N - 2°E with an azimuth of 70° and, a large subsystem in the south, associated with a zone of high rainfall of about 96 mm/hour and located at 8.8°N - 1.4°E with an azimuth of 90°. These two subsystems were located 200 km and 260 km from the I68CI station with frequencies of 2.3 Hz and 1 Hz respectively. The mesoscale convective systems in this region are moving from East to West and including several storm cells.

Locating Parent Lightning Strokes of Sprites Observed over a Mesoscale Convective System in Shandong Province,China

In this paper, we report the location results for the parent lightning strokes of more than 30 red sprites observed over an asymmetric mesoscale convective system(MCS) on 30 July 2015 in Shandong Province, China, with a long-baseline lightning location network of very-low-frequency/low-frequency magnetic field sensors. The results show that almost all of these cloud-to-ground(CG) strokes are produced during the mature stage of the MCS, and are predominantly located in the trailing stratiform region, which is similar to analyses of sprite-productive MCSs in North America and Europe. Comparison between the location results for the sprite-producing CG strokes and those provided by the World Wide Lightning Location Network(WWLLN) indicates that the location accuracy of WWLLN for intense CG strokes in Shandong Province is typically within 10 km, which is consistent with the result based on analysis of 2838 sprite-producing CG strokes in the continental United States. Also, we analyze two cases where some minor lightning discharges in the parent flash of sprites can also be located, providing an approach to confine the thundercloud region tapped by the sprite-producing CG strokes.

Evolution of the Total Lightning Activity in a Leading-Line and Trailing Stratiform Mesoscale Convective System over Beijing

Data from the Beijing SAFIR 3000 lightning detection system and Doppler radar provided some insights into the three-dimensional lightning structure and evolution of a leading-line and trailing-stratiform （LLTS） mesoscale convective system （MCS） over Beijing on 31 July 2007. Most of the lightning in the LLTS-MCS was intracloud （IC） lightning, while the mean ratio of positive cloud-to-ground （＋CG） lightning to –CG lightning was 1：4, which was higher than the average value from previous studies. The majority of CG lightning occurred in the convective region of the radar echo, particularly at the leading edge of the front. Little IC lightning and little ＋CG lightning occurred in the stratiform region. The distribution of the CG lightning indicated that the storm had a tilted dipole structure given the wind shear or the tripole charge structure. During the storm’s development, most of the IC lightning occurred at an altitude of ～9.5 km; the lightning rate reached its maximum at 10.5 km, the altitude of IC lightning in the mature stage of the storm. When the thunderstorm began to dissipate, the altitude of the IC lightning decreased gradually. The spatial distribution of lightning was well correlated with the rainfall on the ground, although the peak value of rainfall appeared 75 min later than the peak lightning rate.

Analysis of a Mesoscale Convective System that Produced a Single Sprite

Sprites are brief optical emissions occurring above thunderstorms. Features of sprites and their parent thunderstorms and lightning activities have been studied by many researchers. Here, we report a single sprite recorded over a mesoscale convective system during its life cycle in Northeast China. The results show that the sprite might have been a dancing one, with a 20 km horizontal displacement from its parent cloud-to-ground flash （CG） and a 38 ms time delay; all the sprite elements occurred during the continuing current process of the parent flash. The peak current of the parent CG was the largest during the almost one-hour time window containing the sprite, and the absolute values of all the negative flashes were smaller than 100 kA during the same time period and did not produce sprite. The sprite did not occur during the time period in which the maximum area of the thunderstorm reached. The occurrence of sprite corresponded well with the decay of the thunderstorm convection, and no significant relationship between the occurrence of sprite and the increase in the 30-35 dBZ and 35-40 dBZ interval was found. The large wind gradient in the 8-12 km region of the thunderstorm may have played an important role in the sprite production.

THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG SOUTH CHINA COASTAL AREA

Observational analysis shows that a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) occurred on May 13-14 2004 along the coastal area in South China. The MCS initiated among the southwesterly flows within a west-east orientation low-level shear line. Associated with the system, in its subsequent development stages, no distinct vortex circulation developed in low-level. Instead, a cyclonic flow disturbance was observed in the mid-troposphere. How the convection starts to develop and evolve into a MCS With observational analysis and numerical simulation, the problem has been studied. The high-resolution MM5 simulation shows that topographic convergence along the coastal line and the nearby mountains in western South China plays an important role to initiate the MCS convection. Once the convection occurs, due to the condensation heating, a cooperative interaction between the preexisting mid-level disturbance and convection is created, which may greatly affect the MCS development during periods when the system continues moving eastward. Compared to some typical MCS that happen in Southern China, which are usually accompanied with upward development of cyclonic vorticity, the development and evolution of the investigated MCS shows distinguishing features. In this article, the physical mechanisms responsible for the intensification of mid-level disturbance are discussed, and a viewpoint to interpret the effects of mid-level disturbance on the MCS organizational development is proposed.

Simulation of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems in Northern China：Lightning Activities and Storm Structure

Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems（QLMCSs） in northern China were simulated using the WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting） model and the 3D-Var（three-dimensional variational） analysis system of the ARPS（Advanced Regional Prediction System） model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.

Numerical Simulation of Microphysics in Meso-β-Scale Convective Cloud System Associated with a Mesoscale Convective Complex

Numerical simulation of meso-β-scale convective cloud systems associated with a PRE-STORM MCC case has been carried out using a 2-D version of the CSU Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) nonhydrostatic model with parameterized microphysics. It is found that the predicted meso-r-scale convective phenomena arc basically unsteady under the situation of strong shear at low-levels, while the meso-β-scale convective system is maintained up to 3 hours or more. The meso -β- scale cloud system exhibits characteristics of a multi-celled convective storm in which the meso-r-scale convective cells have lifetime of about 30 min. Pressure perturbation depicts a meso-low after a half hour in the low levels. As the cloud system evolves, the meso-low intensifies and extends to the upshear side and covers the entire domain in the mid-lower levels with the peak values of 5-8 hPa. Temperature perturbation depicts a warm region in the middle levels through the entire simulation period. The meso-r-scale warm cores with peak values of 4-8 ℃ are associated with strong convective cells. The cloud top evaporation causes a stronger cold layer around the cloud top levels.Simulation of microphysics exhibits that graupel is primarily concentrated in the strong convective cells forming the main source of convective rainfall after one hour of simulation time. Aggregates are mainly located in the stratiform region and decaying convective cells which produce the stratiform rainfall. Riming of the ice crystals is the predominant precipitation formation mechanism in the convection region, whereas aggregation of ice crystals is the predominant one in the stratiform region, which is consistent with observations. Sensitivity experiments of ice-phase mierophysical processes show that the microphysical structures of the convective cloud system can be simulated better with the diagnosed aggregation collection efficiencies.

SENSITIVITY OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOIL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CHINA

The impacts of soil moisture(SM) on heavy rainfall and the development of Mesoscale Convection Systems(MCSs) are investigated through 24-h numerical simulations of two heavy rainfall events that occurred respectively on28 March 2009(Case 1) and 6 May 2010(Case 2) over southern China. The numerical simulations were carried out with WRF and its coupled Noah LSM(Land Surface Model). First, comparative experiments were driven by two different SM data sources from NCEP-FNL and NASA-GLDAS. Secondary, with the run driven by NASA-GLDAS data as a control one, a series of sensitivity tests with different degree of(20%, 60%) increase or decrease in the initial SM were performed to examine the impact of SM on the simulations. Comparative experiment results show that the 24-h simulated cumulative rainfall distributions are not substantially affected by the application of the two different SM data,while the precipitation intensity is changed to some extent. Forecast skill scores show that simulation with NASA-GLDAS SM data can lead to some improvement, especially in the heavy rain(芏50 mm) forecast, where there is up to 5% increase in the TS score. Sensitivity test analysis found that a predominantly positive feedback of SM on precipitation existed in these two heavy rain events but not with completely the same features. Organization of the heavy rainfall-producing MCS seems to have an impact on the feedback process between SM and precipitation. For Case 1, the MCS was poorly organized and occurred locally in late afternoon, and the increase of SM only caused a slight enhancement of precipitation. Drier soil was found to result in an apparent decrease of rainfall intensity,indicating that precipitation is more sensitive to SM reduction. For Case 2, as the heavy rain was caused by a well-organized MCS with sustained precipitation, the rainfall is more sensitive to SM increase, which brings more rainfall. Additionally, distinctive feedback effects were identified from different stages and different organization of MCS, with strong feedback between SM and precipitation mainly appearing in the early stages of the poorly organized MCS and during the late period of the well-organized MCS.

Initiation and Evolution of Long-Lived Eastward-Propagating Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Second-Step Terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley

Based on the previous statistical analysis of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)over the second-step terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley,eight representative long-lived eastward-propagating MCSs are selected for model-based sensitivity testing to investigate the initiation and evolution of these types of MCSs as well as their impact on downstream areas.We subject each MCS to a semi-idealized(CNTL)simulation and a sensitivity(NOLH)simulation that neglects condensational heating in the formation region.The CNTL experiment reveals convection forms in the region downstream of a shortwave trough typified by persistent southwesterly winds in the low-to midtroposphere.Upon merging with other convective systems,moist convection develops into an MCS,which propagates eastward under the influence of mid-tropospheric westerlies,and moves out of the second-step terrain.The MCS then merges with pre-existing local convection over the plains;the merged convection reinforces the cyclonic wind perturbation into a mesoscale vortex at 850 hPa.While this vortex moves eastward to regions with local vortex at 850 hPa,another vortex at 925 hPa is also intensified.Finally,the vortices at 850 and 925 hPa merge together and develop into a mesoscale convective vortex(MCV).In contrast,MCSs fail to form and move eastward in the NOLH experiment.In the absence of eastward-propagating MCSs,moist convection and mesoscale vortices still appear in the plains,but the vortex strength and precipitation intensity are significantly weakened.It is suggested the eastward-propagating MCSs over the second-step terrain significantly impact the development and enhancement of moist convection and vortices in the downstream areas.

Potential Deformation and Its Application to the Diagnosis of Heavy Precipitation in Mesoscale Convective Systems

Many observational studies have shown that deformation, like vertical vorticity and divergence, is closely related to the occurrence and distribution of strong precipitation. In this paper, to involve deformation in precipitation diagnosis, a new parameter called potential deformation（PD） is derived and then applied to precipitation detection within a simulated mesoscale convective system（MCS）. It is shown that PD includes both stretching deformation and shearing deformation and shares similar characteristics with deformation insofar as it does not change with the rotating coordinate. Diagnosis of the simulated MCS reveals that PD performs well in tracing the MCS＇ precipitation. In terms of their distributional pattern, the large-value areas of PD are similar to the precipitation in the different development stages of the MCS. A detailed analysis of the physical processes contained within the PD shows that it can reflect the three-dimensional moisture variation,vertical wind shear and wind deformation within the MCS. These structures are usually a comprehensive reflection of the characteristics of the surface cold pool, rear inflow jet, downward cold air flow and upward warm moist flow within the precipitating convective cells. For this reason, the PD shows much stronger anomalies in the precipitating atmosphere than the non-precipitating atmosphere, which implies considerable potential for its application in detecting heavy precipitation within MCSs.

Numerical Simulation of Torrential Rainfall and Vortical Hot Towers in a Midlatitude Mesoscale Convective System

A cloud-resolving model simulation of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) producing torrential rainfall is performed with the finest horizontal resolution of 444 m.It is shown that the model reproduces the ob-served MCS,including its rainfall distribution and amounts,as well as the timing and location of leading rainbands and trailing stratiform clouds.Results show that discrete convective hot towers,shown in Vis5D at a scale of 2 5 km,are triggered by evaporatively driven cold outflows converging with the high-θ e air ahead.Then,they move rearward,with respect to the leading rainbands,to form stratiform clouds.These convective towers gener-ate vortical tubes of opposite signs,with more intense cyclonic vorticity occurring in the leading convergence zone.The results appear to have important implications for the improvement of summertime quantitative precipi-tation forecasts and the understanding of vortical hot tow-ers,as well midlevel mesoscale convective vortices.

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Systems to Intense Hourly Precipitation Events during the Warm Seasons over Central East China

Central East China is an area where both intense hourly precipitation（IHP） events and mesoscale convection systems（MCSs） occur frequently in the warm seasons. Based on mosaics of composite Doppler radar reflectivity and hourly precipitation data during the warm seasons（May to September） from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2011, the contribution of MCSs to IHP events exceeding 20 mm h^-1 over central East China was evaluated. An MCS was defined as a continuous or quasicontinuous band of 40d BZ reflectivity that extended for at least 100 km in at least one direction and lasted for at least 3h. It was found that the contribution of MCSs to IHP events was 45% on average over central East China. The largest contribution,more than 80%, was observed along the lower reaches of the Yellow River and in the Yangtze River–Huaihe River valleys.These regions were the source regions of MCSs, or along the frequent tracks of MCSs. There were two daily peaks in the numbers of IHP events： one in the late afternoon and one in the early morning. These peaks were more pronounced in July than in other months. MCSs contributed more to the early-morning IHP event peaks than to the late-afternoon peaks. The contributions of MCSs to IHP events with different intensities exhibited no significant difference, which fluctuated around 50% on average over central East China.

MAGE ANALYSIS OF GEOSTATIONARY METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE FOR MONITORING MOVEMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU

Disaster weather forecasting is becoming increasingly important. In this paper, the trajectories of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) were automatically tracked over the Chinese Tibetan Plateau using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) brightness temperature (Tbb) from June to August 1998, and the MCSs are classified according to their movement direction. Based on these, spatial data mining methods are used to study the relationships between MCSs trajectories and their environmental physical field values. Results indicate that at 400hPa level, the trajectories of MCSs moving across the 105°E boundary are less influenced by water vapor flux divergence, vertical wind velocity, relative humidity and K index. In addition, if the gravity central longitude locations of MCSs are between 104°E and 105°E, then geopotential height and wind divergence are two main factors in movement causation. On the other hand, at 500hPa level, the trajectories of MCSs in a north-east direction are mainly influenced by K index and water vapor flux divergence when their central locations are less than 104°E. However, the MCSs moving in an east and south-east direction are influenced by a few correlation factors at this level.

ANALYSIS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU IN SUMMER

In this paper, Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) infrared black-body temperature (Tbb) data from June to August 1998 are used to automatically track the activity of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over the Tibetan Plateau in China. Consequently, the features of MCS, such as area, intensity, life cycle, activity region and shape, are obtained. High Resolution Limited Area Analysis and Forecasting System (HLAFS) values provided by China National Meteorological Center are used to study the relationships between the MCS trajectories and their environmental physical field values, based on the distribution and trajectories of MCSs over the Tibetan Plateau. Favorable environmental physical field charts of influencing MCS movement out of the Tibetan Plateau in different UTC (Universal Time Coordinate) are developed by using spatial data mining techniques at levels of 400hPa and 500hPa, respectively.

THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND NEIGHBORING AREAS DURING IOP608 OF HUAMEX

The paper gives the distributions of the daily mean temperature of black body of satellite infrared images from June 7 to 10, 1998 during HUAMEX and examines 14 meso-α-scale convective systems and a number of meso-b-scale convective systems using the satellite infrared images at 1-h intervals. The mesoscale convective systems on June 7 and 9, which resulted in severe rainstorm over the middle of Taiwan and the estuary region of the Pearl River (Zhujiang R.), are emphatically analyzed. The serial development of mesoscale convective systems is revealed by the distributions of the black body temperature of satellite infrared images. The environmental conditions in which many mesoscale convective systems continuously occurred are diagnosed. The visualizing tool, LiveView, displays the link between the upper and lower horizontal wind fields and the vertical circulations and 3-dimensional trajectories of moist air motions, based on the data of objective analyses.

Modal Analysis of Linear Mesoscale Convective System in Fujian Heavy Rainstorm

This paper uses the daily precipitation observation data and Doppler weather radar observation data from 2017 observatories and regional automatic stations in Fujian, China from 2009 to 2015. The characteristics of formation mode, organization mode, moving direction and duration of linear mesoscale convective system during non-typhoon continuous rainstorm in Fujian were analyzed. This paper gives the definition of linear mesoscale convective systems, trailing and parallel mesoscale convective systems. The above characteristics of the linear mesoscale convective system during the continuous heavy rain in Fujian differ greatly from the non-sustained heavy rain process: The linear mesoscale convective system in the continuous heavy rain in Fujian is mainly constructed later, and the trailing and parallel mesoscale convective system is conducive to the occurrence of continuous heavy rain in Fujian. The moving direction of the linear mesoscale convective system and convective monomer is mainly in the east direction, and the system duration is mostly 4 - 10 hours. The formation time of the monomer to form a linear convection time is mainly 1 - 3 hours, which is 2 hours earlier than the organization process of the general linear mesoscale convective system. The linear convective system formed to a dead time of an average of 5 hours, slightly longer than the general linear mesoscale convective system.

Mesoscale Numerical Study of Quasi-Stationary Convective System over Jeddah in November 2009

25 November 2009 is an unforgettable day for the people in Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). On that day, Jeddah turned into a disaster zone following a short heavy rainfall event that triggered flash floods leaving 122 fatalities and considerable losses. Numerical experiments using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric research mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) have been performed to investigate the event. It was caused by a short quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system that developed over Jeddah and lasted for about 8 hours. Rainfall totals computed by the model exceeded 400 mmin some localities in the southern part of Jeddah city and to the north of Jeddah in Thuwal city. The limited available observed rainfall totals, atKingAbdulAzizInternationalAirportand wadiQaws rain gauges, and Jeddah’s weather radar observations corroborates the ability of the model to reproduce the spatial and temporal characteristics of the rainfall event. A synoptic environment characterized by warmRed Seasurface temperatures and high humidity in the low levels of the troposphere. A stationary anticyclone centered over the southeast of theArabian Peninsulaconcentrated the water vapour flow to a narrow passage over Jeddah. Simulation results suggested that the development of a mesolow by latent heat release, as well as cyclogenesis induced by Al Hejaz escarpments, could have played an important role in enhancing the event by providing low-level convergence and enhanced upslope winds, and upper level atmospheric instability.

Simulation of the evolution of the latent heat processes in a mesoscale convective system accompanied by heavy rainfall over the Guangzhou region of South China

利用WRF模式对一次广州暴雨MCS系统的微物理潜热过程进行了云尺度的模拟研究,得到了MCS系统在不同发展阶段各项微物理过程潜热收支的三维结构,表明了MCS各个阶段潜热收支的主要微物理过程。