This study investigated the impact of multiple-Doppler radar data and surface data assimilation on forecasts of heavy rainfall over the central Korean Peninsula;the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model and its ...This study investigated the impact of multiple-Doppler radar data and surface data assimilation on forecasts of heavy rainfall over the central Korean Peninsula;the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system(3DVAR) were used for this purpose. During data assimilation,the WRF 3DVAR cycling mode with incremental analysis updates(IAU) was used. A maximum rainfall of 335.0 mm occurred during a 12-h period from 2100 UTC 11 July 2006 to 0900 UTC 12 July 2006.Doppler radar data showed that the heavy rainfall was due to the back-building formation of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs).New convective cells were continuously formed in the upstream region,which was characterized by a strong southwesterly low-level jet(LLJ).The LLJ also facilitated strong convergence due to horizontal wind shear,which resulted in maintenance of the storms.The assimilation of both multiple-Doppler radar and surface data improved the accuracy of precipitation forecasts and had a more positive impact on quantitative forecasting(QPF) than the assimilation of either radar data or surface data only.The back-building characteristic was successfully forecasted when the multiple-Doppler radar data and surface data were assimilated.In data assimilation experiments,the radar data helped forecast the development of convective storms responsible for heavy rainfall,and the surface data contributed to the occurrence of intensified low-level winds.The surface data played a significant role in enhancing the thermal gradient and modulating the planetary boundary layer of the model,which resulted in favorable conditions for convection.展开更多
利用LAPS(local analysis and prediction system)同化系统融合多种观测资料,对2010年8月25日发生在上海的一次强对流天气过程进行中尺度分析。结果表明,这次强对流天气主要是由中、低空中尺度辐合系统直接触发形成的。强对流形成阶段,...利用LAPS(local analysis and prediction system)同化系统融合多种观测资料,对2010年8月25日发生在上海的一次强对流天气过程进行中尺度分析。结果表明,这次强对流天气主要是由中、低空中尺度辐合系统直接触发形成的。强对流形成阶段,地面有分散辐合形成并逐渐加强,成为触发中尺度垂直环流的主要机制,垂直结构上出现低层辐合高层辐散的有利配置,风暴中心附近出现明显的上升气流区,中高层相对湿度显著增加。成熟阶段,强对流云体中心附近的对流层底层开始出现下沉气流,上升气流在其拖曳作用下明显倾斜。衰减阶段,下沉气流加强使中尺度环流动力结构和水汽供应受到破坏,垂直结构上转为底层辐散高层辐合。因此,与天气尺度分析相比,基于LAPS的中尺度分析能更深刻地揭示中小尺度系统的三维结构和时空演变特征。展开更多
The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,resear...The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,research into using infrared radiance observations for numerically predicting and analyzing tropical mesoscale convective systems remain mostly fallow.Since tropical mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in regional and global weather,this deficit should be addressed.This study is the first of its kind to examine the potential impacts of assimilating all-sky upper tropospheric infrared radiance observations on the prediction of a tropical squall line.Even though these all-sky infrared radiance observations are not directly affected by lower-tropospheric winds,the high-frequency assimilation of these all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses of the tropical squall line’s outflow position.Aside from that,the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses and prediction of the squall line’s cloud field.Finally,reducing the frequency of assimilating these all-sky infrared radiance observations weakened these improvements to the analyzed outflow position,as well as the analyses and predictions of cloud fields.展开更多
基金supported by the Global Partnership Program of the Korea Foundation of International Cooperation for Science and Technology(KICOS)the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant RACS 2010-2016This research was also supported by the BK21 program of the Korean Government Ministry of Education.
文摘This study investigated the impact of multiple-Doppler radar data and surface data assimilation on forecasts of heavy rainfall over the central Korean Peninsula;the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system(3DVAR) were used for this purpose. During data assimilation,the WRF 3DVAR cycling mode with incremental analysis updates(IAU) was used. A maximum rainfall of 335.0 mm occurred during a 12-h period from 2100 UTC 11 July 2006 to 0900 UTC 12 July 2006.Doppler radar data showed that the heavy rainfall was due to the back-building formation of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs).New convective cells were continuously formed in the upstream region,which was characterized by a strong southwesterly low-level jet(LLJ).The LLJ also facilitated strong convergence due to horizontal wind shear,which resulted in maintenance of the storms.The assimilation of both multiple-Doppler radar and surface data improved the accuracy of precipitation forecasts and had a more positive impact on quantitative forecasting(QPF) than the assimilation of either radar data or surface data only.The back-building characteristic was successfully forecasted when the multiple-Doppler radar data and surface data were assimilated.In data assimilation experiments,the radar data helped forecast the development of convective storms responsible for heavy rainfall,and the surface data contributed to the occurrence of intensified low-level winds.The surface data played a significant role in enhancing the thermal gradient and modulating the planetary boundary layer of the model,which resulted in favorable conditions for convection.
文摘利用LAPS(local analysis and prediction system)同化系统融合多种观测资料,对2010年8月25日发生在上海的一次强对流天气过程进行中尺度分析。结果表明,这次强对流天气主要是由中、低空中尺度辐合系统直接触发形成的。强对流形成阶段,地面有分散辐合形成并逐渐加强,成为触发中尺度垂直环流的主要机制,垂直结构上出现低层辐合高层辐散的有利配置,风暴中心附近出现明显的上升气流区,中高层相对湿度显著增加。成熟阶段,强对流云体中心附近的对流层底层开始出现下沉气流,上升气流在其拖曳作用下明显倾斜。衰减阶段,下沉气流加强使中尺度环流动力结构和水汽供应受到破坏,垂直结构上转为底层辐散高层辐合。因此,与天气尺度分析相比,基于LAPS的中尺度分析能更深刻地揭示中小尺度系统的三维结构和时空演变特征。
文摘The advent of modern geostationary satellite infrared radiance observations has noticeably improved numerical weather forecasts and analyses.However,compared to midlatitude weather systems and tropical cyclones,research into using infrared radiance observations for numerically predicting and analyzing tropical mesoscale convective systems remain mostly fallow.Since tropical mesoscale convective systems play a crucial role in regional and global weather,this deficit should be addressed.This study is the first of its kind to examine the potential impacts of assimilating all-sky upper tropospheric infrared radiance observations on the prediction of a tropical squall line.Even though these all-sky infrared radiance observations are not directly affected by lower-tropospheric winds,the high-frequency assimilation of these all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses of the tropical squall line’s outflow position.Aside from that,the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiance observations improved the analyses and prediction of the squall line’s cloud field.Finally,reducing the frequency of assimilating these all-sky infrared radiance observations weakened these improvements to the analyzed outflow position,as well as the analyses and predictions of cloud fields.
基金supported by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project [grant number 2171100004417008]the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41575050,41875049,and 41805034]