This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made ...This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfaIling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions ("initials", hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.展开更多
Despite efficient parallelism in the solution of physical parameterization in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES),the Helmholtz equation in the dynamic core,with the increase of resolution,c...Despite efficient parallelism in the solution of physical parameterization in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES),the Helmholtz equation in the dynamic core,with the increase of resolution,can hardly achieve sufficient parallelism in the solving process due to a large amount of communication and irregular access.In this paper,optimizing the Helmholtz equation solution for better performance and higher efficiency has been an urgent task.An optimization scheme for the parallel solution of the Helmholtz equation is proposed in this paper.Specifically,the geometrical multigrid optimization strategy is designed by taking advantage of the data anisotropy of grid points near the pole and the isotropy of those near memory equator in the Helmholtz equation,and the Incomplete LU(ILU)decomposition preconditioner is adopted to speed up the convergence of the improved Generalized Conjugate Residual(GCR),which effectively reduces the number of iterations and the computation time.The overall solving performance of the Helmholtz equation is improved by thread-level parallelism,vectorization,and reuse of data in the cache.The experimental results show that the proposed optimization scheme can effectively eliminate the bottleneck of the Helmholtz equation as regards the solving speed.Considering the test results on a 10-node two-way server,the solution of the Helmholtz equation,compared with the original serial version,is accelerated by 100,with one-third of iterations reduced.展开更多
The operational numerical weather prediction system established by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)model,adopts the classical semi-im...The operational numerical weather prediction system established by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)model,adopts the classical semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)time integration algorithm.This paper describes a major upgrade to the dynamical core of the CMA global forecast system(CMA-GFS),which was successfully incorporated into operation in 2020.In the upgrade,the classical SISL is further developed into a predictor–corrector scheme,a three-dimensional(3D)reference profile instead of the original isothermal reference profile is applied when implementing the semi-implicit algorithm,and a hybrid terrain-following vertical coordinate system is also applied.The new version of the dynamical core greatly improves the model performance,the time integration reaches second-order accuracy,the time step can be extended by 50%,and the efficiency is greatly improved(by approximately 30%).Atmospheric circulation simulation is systematically improved,and deviations in temperature,wind,and humidity are reduced.The new version of the dynamical core provides a solid foundation for further development of the entire operational system of the CMA.展开更多
研究I的结果表明:线性平衡方程(LBE)在热带地区不适用,而进一步改进方向是削弱LBE在该区域的约束程度。本文以此为基础,在GRAPES(global/regional assimilation and prediction system)全球变分同化系统中引入动力与统计混合平衡约束方...研究I的结果表明:线性平衡方程(LBE)在热带地区不适用,而进一步改进方向是削弱LBE在该区域的约束程度。本文以此为基础,在GRAPES(global/regional assimilation and prediction system)全球变分同化系统中引入动力与统计混合平衡约束方案。新方案在逐层求解LBE的基础上增加垂直方向的线性回归,回归系数随纬度和高度变化。针对背景误差协方差的分析表明,新方案可以更好的保证独立分析变量间预报误差不相关的基本要求,并大幅度减小热带地区平衡气压预报误差方差的量值和占总方差的比例。单点试验结果表明,与LBE方案相比,新方案对中、高纬影响很小,但在热带地区成功实现了风、压场分析的解耦,两者分析更为独立。并且,虽未考虑具体波动模态,但新方案给出的风、压场协相关结构与研究I的理论分析结果相近。一个月的同化循环与预报结果表明,引入新方案后,赤道外地区的同化预报效果为中性偏正,而热带地区风场的同化预报效果显著提高,LBE方案中平流层低层的风场同化预报异常被基本消除。展开更多
利用GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统)三维变分同化系统,针对对流天气系统特点,用改进的郭晓岚对流参数化方案作为观测算子,同化广东省自动站记录的对流天气系统的雨量...利用GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统)三维变分同化系统,针对对流天气系统特点,用改进的郭晓岚对流参数化方案作为观测算子,同化广东省自动站记录的对流天气系统的雨量资料,并且与同化探空资料进行了比较。在雨带有明显改进的区域,分别同化这两种资料都可以调整大气低层水汽辐合增加(或辐散),对流层中下层增暖增湿(或变冷变干),从而增加(或减少)降水,表明降水的同化方案对初始场的调整在一定程度上符合探空观测。进一步讨论同时同化这两种资料对暴雨预报的影响,结果表明同化自动站降水资料对暴雨系统短时预报有正面影响,同时同化这两种资料,可以弥补资料的不足。展开更多
Minimization algorithms are singular components in four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar).In this paper,the convergence and application of the conjugate gradient algorithm(CGA),which is based on the Lan...Minimization algorithms are singular components in four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar).In this paper,the convergence and application of the conjugate gradient algorithm(CGA),which is based on the Lanczos iterative algorithm and the Hessian matrix derived from tangent linear and adjoint models using a non-hydrostatic framework,are investigated in the 4DVar minimization.First,the influence of the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization of the Lanczos vector on the convergence of the Lanczos algorithm is studied.The results show that the Lanczos algorithm without orthogonalization fails to converge after the ninth iteration in the 4DVar minimization,while the orthogonalized Lanczos algorithm converges stably.Second,the convergence and computational efficiency of the CGA and quasi-Newton method in batch cycling assimilation experiments are compared on the 4DVar platform of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES).The CGA is 40%more computationally efficient than the quasi-Newton method,although the equivalent analysis results can be obtained by using either the CGA or the quasi-Newton method.Thus,the CGA based on Lanczos iterations is better for solving the optimization problems in the GRAPES 4DVar system.展开更多
Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological communit...Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community.Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system-GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3-10 km for regional and 25-50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China.展开更多
The community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model was used to forecast air quality over the Pearl River Delta region from December 2013 to January 2014.The pollution forecasting performance of CMAQ coupled with two di...The community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model was used to forecast air quality over the Pearl River Delta region from December 2013 to January 2014.The pollution forecasting performance of CMAQ coupled with two different meteorological models,i.e.,the global/regional assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES) and the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5),was assessed by comparison with observational data.The effects of meteorological factors and physicochemical processes on the forecast results were discussed through process analysis.The results showed that both models exhibited good performance but that of GRAPES-CMAQ was better.GRAPES was superior in predicting the overall variation tendencies of meteorological fields,but it showed large deviations in atmospheric pressure and wind speed.This contributed to the higher correlation coefficients of the pollutants with GRAPES-CMAQ but with greater deviations.The underestimations of nitrate and ammonium salt contributed to the underestimations of both particulate matter and extinction coefficients.Source emissions made the only positive contributions to surface layer SO2,CO,and NO.It was found that O3 originated primarily from horizontal and vertical transport and that its consumption was predominantly via chemical processes.Conversely,NO2 was found derived primarily from chemical production.展开更多
In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES, from the view of different initial f...In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES, from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model. Several numerical experiments are conducted with the initial conditions and lateral boundary fields provided by T213 L31 and NCEP final analyses, respectively. The sensitivity of prediction products generated by GRAPES to different initial conditions, including effects of three-dimensional variational assimilation on the results, is discussed. After analyzing the differences between the two initial fields and the four simulated results, the memonic ability of the model to initial fields and their influences on precipitation forecast are investigated. Analyses show the obvious differences of sub-synoptic scale between T213 and NCEP initial fields, which result in the corresponding different simulation results, and the differences do not disappear with the integration running. It also shows that for the same initial field whether it has data assimilation or not, it only obviously influences the GRAPES model results in the initial 24 h. Then the differences reduce. In addition, both the location and intensity of heavy rain forecasted by GRAPES model Further is very close to the fact, but the forecasting area of strong torrential rain has some differences from the fact. For the same initial field when it has assimilation, the 9-12-, 12-24-, and 0-24-h precipitation forecasts of the model are better than those without assimilation. All these suggest that the ability of GRAPES numerical prediction depends on the different initial fields and lateral boundary conditions to some extent, and the differences of initial fields will determine the differences of GRAPES simulated results.展开更多
This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model double-moment 6-class(WDM6) microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System(GRAPES...This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model double-moment 6-class(WDM6) microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System(GRAPES_Meso). A rainfall event that occurred during 3–5 June 2015 around Beijing was simulated by using the WDM6, the WRF single-moment 6-class scheme(WSM6), and the NCEP 5-class scheme, respectively. The results show that both the distribution and magnitude of the rainfall simulated with WDM6 were more consistent with the observation. Compared with WDM6, WSM6 simulated larger cloud liquid water content, which provided more water vapor for graupel growth, leading to increased precipitation in the cold-rain processes. For areas with the warmrain processes, the sensitivity experiments using WDM6 showed that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei(CCN)number concentration led to enhanced CCN activation ratio and larger cloud droplet number concentration(Nc) but decreased cloud droplet effective diameter. The formation of more small-size cloud droplets resulted in a decrease in raindrop number concentration(Nr), inhibiting the warm-rain processes, thus gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation. For areas mainly with the cold-rain processes, the overall amount of precipitation increased; however, it gradually decreased when the CCN number concentration reached a certain magnitude. Hence, the effect of CCN number concentration on precipitation exhibits significant differences in different rainfall areas of the same precipitation event.展开更多
A new generation of numerical prediction system GRAPES (a short form of Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) was set up in China Meteorological Administration (CMA). This paper focuses on the scientific...A new generation of numerical prediction system GRAPES (a short form of Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) was set up in China Meteorological Administration (CMA). This paper focuses on the scientific design and preliminary results of the numerical prediction model in GRAPES, including basic idea and strategy of the general scientific design, multi-scale dynamic core, physical package configuration, architecture and parallelization of the codes. A series of numerical experiments using the real data with horizontal resolutions from 10 to 280 km and idealized experiments with very high resolution up to 100 m are conducted, giving encouraging results supporting the multi-scale application of GRAPES. The results of operational implementation of GRAPES model in some NWP centers are also presented with stress at evaluations of the capability to predict the main features of precipitation in China. Finally the issues to be dealt with for further development are discussed.展开更多
A moisture advection scheme is an essential module of a numerical weather/climate model representing the horizontal transport of water vapor.The Piecewise Rational Method(PRM) scalar advection scheme in the Global/Reg...A moisture advection scheme is an essential module of a numerical weather/climate model representing the horizontal transport of water vapor.The Piecewise Rational Method(PRM) scalar advection scheme in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) solves the moisture flux advection equation based on PRM.Computation of the scalar advection involves boundary exchange,and computation of higher bandwidth requirements is complicated and time-consuming in GRAPES.Recently,Graphics Processing Units(GPUs) have been widely used to solve scientific and engineering computing problems owing to advancements in GPU hardware and related programming models such as CUDA/OpenCL and Open Accelerator(OpenACC).Herein,we present an accelerated PRM scalar advection scheme with Message Passing Interface(MPI) and OpenACC to fully exploit GPUs’ power over a cluster with multiple Central Processing Units(CPUs) and GPUs,together with optimization of various parameters such as minimizing data transfer,memory coalescing,exposing more parallelism,and overlapping computation with data transfers.Results show that about 3.5 times speedup is obtained for the entire model running at medium resolution with double precision when comparing the scheme’s elapsed time on a node with two GPUs(NVIDIA P100) and two 16-core CPUs(Intel Gold 6142).Further,results obtained from experiments of a higher resolution model with multiple GPUs show excellent scalability.展开更多
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program(Grant.No.2012BAC22B03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41475100)+1 种基金the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI(Grant.No.26282111)
文摘This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfaIling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions ("initials", hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.
基金partially supported by the Open Project of State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agricuture,Qinghai University(No.2020-ZZ-03)the Qinghai Province High-End Innovative Thousand Talents Program Leading Talents+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61762074 and 61962051)the National Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province(No.2019-ZJ-7034)。
文摘Despite efficient parallelism in the solution of physical parameterization in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES),the Helmholtz equation in the dynamic core,with the increase of resolution,can hardly achieve sufficient parallelism in the solving process due to a large amount of communication and irregular access.In this paper,optimizing the Helmholtz equation solution for better performance and higher efficiency has been an urgent task.An optimization scheme for the parallel solution of the Helmholtz equation is proposed in this paper.Specifically,the geometrical multigrid optimization strategy is designed by taking advantage of the data anisotropy of grid points near the pole and the isotropy of those near memory equator in the Helmholtz equation,and the Incomplete LU(ILU)decomposition preconditioner is adopted to speed up the convergence of the improved Generalized Conjugate Residual(GCR),which effectively reduces the number of iterations and the computation time.The overall solving performance of the Helmholtz equation is improved by thread-level parallelism,vectorization,and reuse of data in the cache.The experimental results show that the proposed optimization scheme can effectively eliminate the bottleneck of the Helmholtz equation as regards the solving speed.Considering the test results on a 10-node two-way server,the solution of the Helmholtz equation,compared with the original serial version,is accelerated by 100,with one-third of iterations reduced.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42090032 and 42275168).
文摘The operational numerical weather prediction system established by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)model,adopts the classical semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)time integration algorithm.This paper describes a major upgrade to the dynamical core of the CMA global forecast system(CMA-GFS),which was successfully incorporated into operation in 2020.In the upgrade,the classical SISL is further developed into a predictor–corrector scheme,a three-dimensional(3D)reference profile instead of the original isothermal reference profile is applied when implementing the semi-implicit algorithm,and a hybrid terrain-following vertical coordinate system is also applied.The new version of the dynamical core greatly improves the model performance,the time integration reaches second-order accuracy,the time step can be extended by 50%,and the efficiency is greatly improved(by approximately 30%).Atmospheric circulation simulation is systematically improved,and deviations in temperature,wind,and humidity are reduced.The new version of the dynamical core provides a solid foundation for further development of the entire operational system of the CMA.
文摘研究I的结果表明:线性平衡方程(LBE)在热带地区不适用,而进一步改进方向是削弱LBE在该区域的约束程度。本文以此为基础,在GRAPES(global/regional assimilation and prediction system)全球变分同化系统中引入动力与统计混合平衡约束方案。新方案在逐层求解LBE的基础上增加垂直方向的线性回归,回归系数随纬度和高度变化。针对背景误差协方差的分析表明,新方案可以更好的保证独立分析变量间预报误差不相关的基本要求,并大幅度减小热带地区平衡气压预报误差方差的量值和占总方差的比例。单点试验结果表明,与LBE方案相比,新方案对中、高纬影响很小,但在热带地区成功实现了风、压场分析的解耦,两者分析更为独立。并且,虽未考虑具体波动模态,但新方案给出的风、压场协相关结构与研究I的理论分析结果相近。一个月的同化循环与预报结果表明,引入新方案后,赤道外地区的同化预报效果为中性偏正,而热带地区风场的同化预报效果显著提高,LBE方案中平流层低层的风场同化预报异常被基本消除。
文摘利用GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统)三维变分同化系统,针对对流天气系统特点,用改进的郭晓岚对流参数化方案作为观测算子,同化广东省自动站记录的对流天气系统的雨量资料,并且与同化探空资料进行了比较。在雨带有明显改进的区域,分别同化这两种资料都可以调整大气低层水汽辐合增加(或辐散),对流层中下层增暖增湿(或变冷变干),从而增加(或减少)降水,表明降水的同化方案对初始场的调整在一定程度上符合探空观测。进一步讨论同时同化这两种资料对暴雨预报的影响,结果表明同化自动站降水资料对暴雨系统短时预报有正面影响,同时同化这两种资料,可以弥补资料的不足。
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201506003)
文摘Minimization algorithms are singular components in four-dimensional variational data assimilation(4DVar).In this paper,the convergence and application of the conjugate gradient algorithm(CGA),which is based on the Lanczos iterative algorithm and the Hessian matrix derived from tangent linear and adjoint models using a non-hydrostatic framework,are investigated in the 4DVar minimization.First,the influence of the Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization of the Lanczos vector on the convergence of the Lanczos algorithm is studied.The results show that the Lanczos algorithm without orthogonalization fails to converge after the ninth iteration in the 4DVar minimization,while the orthogonalized Lanczos algorithm converges stably.Second,the convergence and computational efficiency of the CGA and quasi-Newton method in batch cycling assimilation experiments are compared on the 4DVar platform of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES).The CGA is 40%more computationally efficient than the quasi-Newton method,although the equivalent analysis results can be obtained by using either the CGA or the quasi-Newton method.Thus,the CGA based on Lanczos iterations is better for solving the optimization problems in the GRAPES 4DVar system.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1501900)Middle-and Long-term Development Strategic Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(2019-ZCQ-06)。
文摘Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community.Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system-GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3-10 km for regional and 25-50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China (No.2016YFC0203305)Natural Science Foundation of China (41775037).
文摘The community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model was used to forecast air quality over the Pearl River Delta region from December 2013 to January 2014.The pollution forecasting performance of CMAQ coupled with two different meteorological models,i.e.,the global/regional assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES) and the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5),was assessed by comparison with observational data.The effects of meteorological factors and physicochemical processes on the forecast results were discussed through process analysis.The results showed that both models exhibited good performance but that of GRAPES-CMAQ was better.GRAPES was superior in predicting the overall variation tendencies of meteorological fields,but it showed large deviations in atmospheric pressure and wind speed.This contributed to the higher correlation coefficients of the pollutants with GRAPES-CMAQ but with greater deviations.The underestimations of nitrate and ammonium salt contributed to the underestimations of both particulate matter and extinction coefficients.Source emissions made the only positive contributions to surface layer SO2,CO,and NO.It was found that O3 originated primarily from horizontal and vertical transport and that its consumption was predominantly via chemical processes.Conversely,NO2 was found derived primarily from chemical production.
基金Supported by Anhui Meteorological Bureau Scientific Item under Grant No.0504,Anhui Meteorological Bureau General Project No.0601 and NKBRDPC No.2004CB418304.
文摘In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES, from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model. Several numerical experiments are conducted with the initial conditions and lateral boundary fields provided by T213 L31 and NCEP final analyses, respectively. The sensitivity of prediction products generated by GRAPES to different initial conditions, including effects of three-dimensional variational assimilation on the results, is discussed. After analyzing the differences between the two initial fields and the four simulated results, the memonic ability of the model to initial fields and their influences on precipitation forecast are investigated. Analyses show the obvious differences of sub-synoptic scale between T213 and NCEP initial fields, which result in the corresponding different simulation results, and the differences do not disappear with the integration running. It also shows that for the same initial field whether it has data assimilation or not, it only obviously influences the GRAPES model results in the initial 24 h. Then the differences reduce. In addition, both the location and intensity of heavy rain forecasted by GRAPES model Further is very close to the fact, but the forecasting area of strong torrential rain has some differences from the fact. For the same initial field when it has assimilation, the 9-12-, 12-24-, and 0-24-h precipitation forecasts of the model are better than those without assimilation. All these suggest that the ability of GRAPES numerical prediction depends on the different initial fields and lateral boundary conditions to some extent, and the differences of initial fields will determine the differences of GRAPES simulated results.
基金Supported by the National Key Project(2016YFC0203306)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41590874)+2 种基金National(Key)973 Program(2014CB441201)Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences’ Project(2017Z001)Key Project of Air Pollution Cause and Control(DQGG0104)
文摘This study incorporated the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model double-moment 6-class(WDM6) microphysics scheme into the mesoscale version of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System(GRAPES_Meso). A rainfall event that occurred during 3–5 June 2015 around Beijing was simulated by using the WDM6, the WRF single-moment 6-class scheme(WSM6), and the NCEP 5-class scheme, respectively. The results show that both the distribution and magnitude of the rainfall simulated with WDM6 were more consistent with the observation. Compared with WDM6, WSM6 simulated larger cloud liquid water content, which provided more water vapor for graupel growth, leading to increased precipitation in the cold-rain processes. For areas with the warmrain processes, the sensitivity experiments using WDM6 showed that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei(CCN)number concentration led to enhanced CCN activation ratio and larger cloud droplet number concentration(Nc) but decreased cloud droplet effective diameter. The formation of more small-size cloud droplets resulted in a decrease in raindrop number concentration(Nr), inhibiting the warm-rain processes, thus gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation. For areas mainly with the cold-rain processes, the overall amount of precipitation increased; however, it gradually decreased when the CCN number concentration reached a certain magnitude. Hence, the effect of CCN number concentration on precipitation exhibits significant differences in different rainfall areas of the same precipitation event.
基金Key Technologies Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2001BA607B02)National Key Technology Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2006BAC02B03)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40575050)
文摘A new generation of numerical prediction system GRAPES (a short form of Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) was set up in China Meteorological Administration (CMA). This paper focuses on the scientific design and preliminary results of the numerical prediction model in GRAPES, including basic idea and strategy of the general scientific design, multi-scale dynamic core, physical package configuration, architecture and parallelization of the codes. A series of numerical experiments using the real data with horizontal resolutions from 10 to 280 km and idealized experiments with very high resolution up to 100 m are conducted, giving encouraging results supporting the multi-scale application of GRAPES. The results of operational implementation of GRAPES model in some NWP centers are also presented with stress at evaluations of the capability to predict the main features of precipitation in China. Finally the issues to be dealt with for further development are discussed.
基金supported by the decision support project of response to climate change of China,the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.41674085, 41604009, and 41621091)the Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province (No. 2019-ZJ-7034)the Open Project of State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture,Qinghai University (No. 2020-zz-03)。
文摘A moisture advection scheme is an essential module of a numerical weather/climate model representing the horizontal transport of water vapor.The Piecewise Rational Method(PRM) scalar advection scheme in the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) solves the moisture flux advection equation based on PRM.Computation of the scalar advection involves boundary exchange,and computation of higher bandwidth requirements is complicated and time-consuming in GRAPES.Recently,Graphics Processing Units(GPUs) have been widely used to solve scientific and engineering computing problems owing to advancements in GPU hardware and related programming models such as CUDA/OpenCL and Open Accelerator(OpenACC).Herein,we present an accelerated PRM scalar advection scheme with Message Passing Interface(MPI) and OpenACC to fully exploit GPUs’ power over a cluster with multiple Central Processing Units(CPUs) and GPUs,together with optimization of various parameters such as minimizing data transfer,memory coalescing,exposing more parallelism,and overlapping computation with data transfers.Results show that about 3.5 times speedup is obtained for the entire model running at medium resolution with double precision when comparing the scheme’s elapsed time on a node with two GPUs(NVIDIA P100) and two 16-core CPUs(Intel Gold 6142).Further,results obtained from experiments of a higher resolution model with multiple GPUs show excellent scalability.