Early Warning System of Important Meteorological Disasters in Hunan Province

Based on technologies of GRADS, Delphi, WEB and an SQLServer, distri- bution system for major meteorological disasters early warning information in Hunan Province was established. The system consists of warning tips, early warning for different media and early warning query statistics and the network terminal of the system platform includes a business database server, a message platform database server, a sending server and a receiving terminal. The system enjoys some func- tions, such as examination by different users, on-time updating and effectiveness of flood prevention, construction of excessive warning channel, construction of compre-hensive warning information platform and further improvement of information distribution. The system provides references for prevention and reduction of important me- teorological disasters in Hunan.

Analysis on the Influence of Meteorological Disasters on China Tourism Industry

Main meteorological disasters and their destruction on tourism landscape (including natural landscape and human landscape) were analyzed by using the methods of statistical analysis and cited examples, the impact of meteorological disasters on tourism brand, tourism decision, tourism transport, peak tourist season and the threat on tourism industry chain were studied, the main tourism meteorological disasters in North China, East China, Central China, Northeast Region, Southeast Region and Southwest Region were summarized, and some comprehensive measures of meteorological disaster for prevention and mitigation were put forward.

Analysis of Meteorological Disasters in the Flowering and Fruiting Period of Sugar Orange in Guilin

The yield of sugar orange is closely related to meteorological conditions in the flowering and fruiting period, and meteorological disasters at the flowering and early fruiting stage seriously affect its yield. To study influences of meteorological disasters in the flowering and early fruiting stage on sugar orange industry in Guilin, meteorological disasters in the flowering and early fruiting stage and its defense measures were analyzed and studied. The flowering and early fruiting stage of sug- ar orange in Guilin is from March to June, and sudden change of temperature, thunderstorm, hale, hail, rainstorm and other natural disasters can cause the falling of large numbers of flowers and young fruit, damage of tree body, reduction of fruit in quantity, and decrease of its yield. Timely understanding information of disastrous weather and implementing management of water and fertilizer can effectively reduce the loss caused by meteorological disasters and ensue high quality and high yield of sugar orange.

Preliminary Study on the Major Meteorological Disasters Impacts on the Growth of Jujube Fruits

This paper aimed to explore the major meteorological disasters impacts on the growth of Jujube fruits.By analyzing statistic characters of meteorological data and historic yield data of Jujube fruits,the influence of different factors on the different growing stages of Jujube fruits was studied,in terms of temperature,precipitation,and relative humidity.The major meteorological disasters which impacted the growth of Jujube fruits were as follow:(1) Hot days when the temperature was equal to or above 30 ℃ continued over 9 days at full bloom stage;(2) The continuous rainy days lasted over 10 days at mature stage;(3) The continuous rainy days lasted over 7 days at full bloom stage;(4) Clod days when the temperature was equal to or below-22 ℃ continued over 4 days and the minimum temperature reached-24 ℃ at wintering stage.The major meteorological disasters which impact Jujube fruits were different at different stages.The most frequently occurred major meteorological disasters was the hot days when the temperature was equal to or above 30 ℃ and lasted over 9 days at full bloom stage.

The Utilizing of Agro-climatic Resources and Preventing Measures of Meteorological Disasters in Fushun

Based on the meteorological data in Fushun,Qingyuan and Xinbing from 1961 to 2008,the status quo of major agro-climatic resources in Fushun were analyzed.The abundant rainfall,sufficient sunshine and rich thermal resources were suitable for the development of modern agricultural production.The specific measures of effective use of climate resources were put forward according to geographical location and climatic characteristics of Fushun.The advantages of agro-climate resources were exerted for large edible fungi industry;effective accumulated temperature was applied for adjustment of plantation structure;three-dimensional agriculture in the mountainous area was developed vigorously.The main types of meteorological disasters constraining agricultural development in Fushun and their hazards were summarized,including droughts,floods,hail,etc.In addition,some scientific preventing measures of meteorological disaster were proposed.

Change Characteristics of Climate and Main Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in Shiyang River Basin

Based on 35 a meteorological data and main crops planting data in Shiyang River basin meteorological station,the agricultural climate change,agricultural production,hydrology change and the influences on the crops layout,planting in the basin were discussed.The results showed that the linear inclined rates of ≥0 ℃,10 ℃ accumulated temperature increase in the north-central part were bigger than in the south,and the heat resources increased evidently.The annual precipitation increased in the linear inclined rate which was 4.719 mm/10 a,and the annual runoff decreased in 0.274×109 m3/10 a velocity.The climate productivity increased in 134.62 kg/(hm2·10 a) velocity.In late spring and early summer,the regional drought increased evidently,and the frostless period prolonged.The sand storm decreased evidently.The gale in the south increased and decreased in the north-central part.The agricultural climate change made that the spring wheat planting zone advanced to the high-altitude area.The seeding date advanced,and the growth period shortened.It didn't favor for the yield formation.However,it was favorable to improve the yield and quality of thermophilous crops such as the corn,cotton and wine grape and so on.

Climate Changes and Countermeasures for Meteorological Disasters during Production Period in Vegetable Greenhouse in Northern Shenyang Province

[Objective] The aim was to study the climate changes and countermeasures for meteorological disasters during production period in vegetable greenhouse in northern Shenyang. [Method] By dint of local climate data in recent 38 years and using the conventional method of mathematical statistics, the climate changes and countermeasures for meteorological disasters during production period in vegetable greenhouse in northern Shenyang were expounded. [Result] In general, the sunshine condition in new area of Shenyang was normal. Winter sunshine time in Shenyang was short (551). Sunshine hours in each year were decreasing each year, but the decreasing span was not distinct. The temperature climate tendency during growth period of vegetables in greenhouse in new area of north Shenyang was 0.371 ℃/10 a. The winter climate trend rate of 0.313 ℃/10 a; Though the climate was increasing, the wave range was large, difficult to produce; in the cold period (November to March), precipitation in each year and rainy days were increasing, having large influence on the production of vegetables in greenhouse. The low temperature and cloudy days were the characteristics of climate in winter in that area, having disadvantageous to the development of vegetables. Warming measures in winter was expected to conduct. [Conclusion] The study provided scientific accordance to the development of agriculture industry in the local area.

Spatialization Method of Major Agriculture Meteorological Disasters and Its Application in Dalian

By using the observation data of drought,storm and hail in Dalian in recent 30 years,the spatialization of major agriculture meteorological disasters were carried out by means of cokriging and plate smooth slice spline method.Based on the 1:250 000 geographical information data in Dalian City,major meteorological disasters were spatially analyzed by using ArcMap,and the thematic map overlaying disaster distribution and crop information was made.Taking the distribution of hail disaster and crop yield for example,the application of spatialization method of agriculture meteorological disasters was elaborated.The results could provide decision basis for the establishment of disaster prevention and reduction and the optimization of crop distribution in Dalian.

Preface to the Special Issue on the"Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters"(FEMD)

Meteorological disasters usually exert huge impacts on the development of both human society and the economy. According to statistics from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, the annual mean economic loss caused by meteorological disasters accounts for 3%-6% of the total amount of global GDP. China is a country that has been one of the most severely influenced by natural disasters.

Effects of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters on Agricultural Production in Chuzhou City of Anhui Province

According to data of agricultural disasters in Chuzhou City of Anhui Province during 1988-2012, types, characteristics and effects on agricultural produc- tion of major major meteorological disasters in the city were analyzed, and then measures to prevent meteorological disasters adopted by meteorological departments of the city in recent years were discussed.

Effects of Main Meteorological Disasters and Their Defense Counterm easures in Ningxia

[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss effects of major meteorological disasters on national economic construction as well as people＇s lives and property in Ningxia. [Method] Based on data about meteorological disasters over the past 50 years and their direct economic losses dur- ing 2003-2011 in Ningxia, effects of major meteorological disasters on national economic construction as well as people＇s lives and property were discussed, and some defense countermeasures of meteorological disasters were put forward. [ Result] In Ningxia, drought, rainstorm and flood, gale and dust, hail and thunderstorm had done considerable harm to national economic construction as well as people＇s lives and property. Since 2003, total direct economic losses caused by all meteorological disasters in Ningxia changed from 1.28 billion to 1.97 billion yuan and accounted for 0.8% -3.1% of GDP of Ningxia. Among them, the direct economic losses caused by drought were the highest and annual average value during 2003 -2011 reached 1.22 billion yuan, accounting for 77.6% of total direct economic losses caused by all meteorological disasters in Ningxia. The direct economic losses caused by rainstorm, flood and hail ranked second, and their annual average values were 0.11 billion and 0.12 billion yuan, accounting for 7.4% and 7.6% of total direct economic losses. Meanwhile, annual average direct economic losses caused by thunderstorm in Ningxia reached 1.18 million yuan. In addition, annual average value of the direct economic losses caused by gale and dust totaled 0.01 billion yuan, with a proportion of 1.0%. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the defense of meteorological disasters in future.

Study on Emergency Management of Geological and Meteorological Disasters

The damage caused by geological and meteorological disasters was pointed out in this paper through analyzing the features and causes of geological and meteorological disasters.To strengthen emergency management of geological and meteorological disasters,it is suggested to rigorously investigate potential geological hazard points,to strengthen observation and warning system,to take group prevention and group test as a supplementary to professional observation,to build up the last line of defense to geological and meteorological disasters,to set up functional cooperation mechanism,and to publicize disaster prevention and mitigation.

Assessment of meteorological disasters based on information diffusion theory in Xinjiang, Northwest China

Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.

Characteristics and risk assessment of agricultural meteorological disasters based on 30 years’disaster data from Heilongjiang Province of China

To determine the influence of agricultural meteorological disasters on agriculture in Heilongjiang Province,the disaster areas associated with different types of disasters and their variation characteristics were analyzed based on the statistical data of agricultural disasters from 1983 to 2013 in Heilongjiang Province,China.The moving average and the Mann-Kendall test were applied to identify the variation trends of drought,flooding,hailstorms and freezing(based on the disaster ratio and the disaster intensity index).Then,the Morlet wavelet analysis method was used to identify the periodicity of these four kinds of agricultural meteorological disasters.Finally,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to analyze the degrees of agricultural loss induced by these disasters.The following results were obtained:1)The disaster ratio and disaster intensity index for drought exhibited increasing trends;the disaster ratio and disaster intensity index for flooding exhibited decreasing trends;for hailstorms,the disaster ratio exhibited no obvious trend of change,whereas the disaster intensity index exhibited an increasing trend;and for freezing,the disaster ratio also exhibited no obvious trend of change,whereas the disaster intensity index exhibited a decreasing trend.2)Mutation points were observed in the disaster ratio series for drought,flooding and hailstorms,whereas no mutation point was evident in the disaster ratio series for freezing.3)Multiple time-scale characteristics were observed in the disaster ratio series for all four types of agricultural meteorological disasters.Furthermore,the disaster ratio series for the different types of disasters had different main periodicities.4)From the perspective of the degree of agricultural loss induced by each type of disaster,drought was identified as the most severe type of agricultural meteorological disaster,followed by flooding,freezing,and hailstorms.The degree of agricultural loss caused by each type of disaster was different during different periods.Finally,based on the results,several strategies were identified for mitigating the effect of agricultural meteorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province.

Construction of Forecast and Early Warning System of Meteorological and Geological Disasters in Qinghai Province

Based on the meteorological and geological disaster data, ground observation data set, CLDAS grid point data set, and EC, BJ and other model product data during 2008-2020, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological and geological disasters and precipitation were analyzed, and the causes of the occurrence of meteorological geological disasters and the deviation of model precipitation forecast were revealed. Besides, an objective precipitation forecast system and a forecast and early warning system of meteorological and geological disasters were established. The results show that meteorological and geological disasters and precipitation were mainly concentrated from May to October, of which continuous precipitation appeared frequently in June and September, and convective precipitation was mainly distributed in July-August;the occurrence frequency of meteorological and geological disasters was basically consistent with the distribution of accumulated precipitation and short-term heavy precipitation, and they were mainly concentrated in the southern and eastern parts of Qinghai. Meteorological and geological disasters were basically caused by heavy rain and above, and meteorological and geological disasters were divided into three types: continuous precipitation(type I), short-term heavy precipitation(type II) and mixed precipitation(type III). For type I, the early warning conditions of meteorological and geological disasters in Qinghai are as follows: if the soil volumetric water content difference between 0-10 and 10-40 cm is ≤0.03 mm^(3)/mm^(3), or the soil volumetric water content at one of the depths is ≥0.25 mm^(3)/mm^(3), the future effective precipitation reaches 8.4 mm in 1 h, 10.2 mm in 2 h, 11.5 mm in 3 h, 14.2 mm in 6 h, 17.7 mm in 12 h, and 18.2 mm in 24 h, and such warning conditions are mainly used in Yushu, Guoluo, southern Hainan, southern Huangnan and other places. For type II, when the future effective precipitation is up to 11.5 mm in 1 h, 14.9 mm in 2 h, 16.2 mm in 3 h, 19.9 mm in 6 h, 25.3 mm in 12 h, and 26.3 mm in 24 h, such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hainan, Huangnan, and eastern Guoluo;as it is up to 13.3 mm in 1 h, 15.5 mm in 2 h, 16.6 mm in 3 h, 19.9 mm in 6 h, 31.1 mm in 12 h, and 34.0 mm in 24 h, such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hehuang valley. The precipitation thresholds of type III are between type I and type II, and closer to that of type II;such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hainan, Huangnan, and northern Guoluo. The forecasting ability of global models for heavy rain and above was not as good as that of mesoscale numerical prediction model, and global models had a wet bias for small-scale precipitation and a dry bias for large-scale precipitation;meso-scale models had a significantly larger precipitation bias. The forecast ability of precipitation objective forecast system constructed by frequency matching and multi-model integration has improved. At the same time, the constructed grid forecast and early warning system of meteorological and geological disasters is more precise and accurate, and is of instructive significance for the forecast and early warning of meteorological and geological disasters.

Current status and prospects of research on safety situation awareness of high speed railway operation environment

Purpose–The safety of high-speed rail operation environments is an important guarantee for the safe operation of high-speed rail.The operating environment of the high-speed rail is complex,and the main factors affecting the safety of high-speed rail operating environment include meteorological disasters,perimeter intrusion and external environmental hazards.The purpose of the paper is to elaborate on the current research status and team research progress on the perception of safety situation in high-speed rail operation environment and to propose directions for further research in the future.Design/methodology/approach–In terms of the mechanism and spatio-temporal evolution law of the main influencing factors on the safety of high-speed rail operation environments,the research status is elaborated,and the latest research progress and achievements of the team are introduced.This paper elaborates on the research status and introduces the latest research progress and achievements of the team in terms of meteorological,perimeter and external environmental situation perception methods for high-speed rail operation.Findings–Based on the technical route of“situational awareness evaluation warning active control,”a technical system for monitoring the safety of high-speed train operation environments has been formed.Relevant theoretical and technical research and application have been carried out around the impact of meteorological disasters,perimeter intrusion and the external environment on high-speed rail safety.These works strongly support the improvement of China’s railway environmental safety guarantee technology.Originality/value–With the operation of CR450 high-speed trains with a speed of 400 kmper hour and the application of high-speed train autonomous driving technology in the future,new and higher requirements have been put forward for the safety of high-speed rail operation environments.The following five aspects of work are urgently needed:(1)Research the single factor disaster mechanism of wind,rain,snow,lightning,etc.for high-speed railways with a speed of 400 kms per hour,and based on this,study the evolution characteristics of multiple safety factors and the correlation between the high-speed driving safety environment,revealing the coupling disastermechanism ofmultiple influencing factors;(2)Research covers multi-source data fusion methods and associated features such as disaster monitoring data,meteorological information,route characteristics and terrain and landforms,studying the spatio-temporal evolution laws of meteorological disasters,perimeter intrusions and external environmental hazards;(3)In terms of meteorological disaster situation awareness,research high-precision prediction methods for meteorological information time series along high-speed rail lines and study the realization of small-scale real-time dynamic and accurate prediction of meteorological disasters along high-speed rail lines;(4)In terms of perimeter intrusion,research amulti-modal fusion perception method for typical scenarios of high-speed rail operation in all time,all weather and all coverage and combine artificial intelligence technology to achieve comprehensive and accurate perception of perimeter security risks along the high-speed rail line and(5)In terms of external environment,based on the existing general network framework for change detection,we will carry out research on change detection and algorithms in the surrounding environment of highspeed rail.

Research on the Application of Meteorological Disaster Losses Assessment Technology

According to the influence degree of meteorological disaster,we analyzed the existing deficiencies in hazard assessment,proposed the fuzzy evaluation method of quantitative assessment.The casualties caused by meteorological disasters and ecological damages to the environment,direct economic losses,efficiency losses,rescue losses,reconstruction and other assessment indices were converted into more accurate indicators of losses indexes.The quantitative formula of the meteorological disasters damage assessment was summarized.The disasters damage grades and damage indexes were used as the relative assessment indices of meteorological disaster losses.Finally,a damage assessment application example was given to verify the validity of the assessment methods.

Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production in Jilin Province, China

Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distri- bution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of ＂diminishing marginal loss＂, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain production of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually. In re- sponse to ensure China＇s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.

Effect of Climate Change on Yuxian's Tobacco in 1967-2013 and Meteorological Support Services

In order to find out the climate change law for Yuxian＇s tobaccos, and provide a theoretical basis for the rational use of climate resources in.the growing area, the meteorological element variation affecting tobacco growth was analyzed by using unary linear regression equation and other statistical analysis methods based on the observation data of Yuxian Weather Station during 1967-2013. The results showed that the average temperature during the growing period of tobacco in the 47 years period was in the normal growth range of tobacco, close to the lowest value of the optimum temperature. Since 1990, there were only 2 years having the accumulated temperature of days with ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature less than the required accumulated temperature （2 600 ℃.d ） for tobacco growth. The aver- age of frost-free days of flue-cured tobacco in Yuxian in 47 years was 18.7 d more than the required days for the normal growth and maturation of tobaccos. The av- erage of precipitation during the growing period over the years was much lower than the required value for the normal growth of tobaccos. The sunshine hours for Yuxian＇s flue-cured tobacco in the field could meet the requirements for growing high-quality tobaccos. The sunshine hours in harvest and curing period were a bit more than the required number for growing high quality tobaccos. It was cold in winter and spring in Yuxian, during which the dry climate was not conducive to the occurrence of pests and diseases. However, with the warming climate, the pest dis- eases occurred easily. In order to avoid or mitigate meteorological disasters, it was necessary to rationally select the types and planting areas of tobacco, timely carry out irrigation and artificial rain enhancement and hail suppression, and establish a rational meteorological service system as well as early conduct prediction, notifica- tion and prevention of tobacco disasters.

The integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province of China

This paper describes studies on the integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province,in northeastern China,by using information-diffusion theory and cluster method with 35 years of summer temperature and precipitation data from 74 meteorological stations from 1971 through 2005.The information-diffusion theory has been used extensively in risk assessment,yet almost no one has done research about risk assessment by information-diffusion theory based on meteorological disaster standards.Some research results are as follows:the risk probability of low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is higher than that in the southern region;the risk probability of general low temperature and cold damage in the southwestern region is the highest;the risk probability of serious low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is the highest,followed by the central and southeast region;the high-risk region of arid disaster in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located in the southwestern,central,and southern parts of the province;the high-intensity arid disaster was located in the south-eastern region;the high-risk region of flood in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located from the southwest and then across the central part to the western part of Heilongjiang Province;the high-intensity flood disasters were located in almost every part of Heilongjiang Province.We can conclude from the integrated meteorological disaster risk zoning that the high-risk region of mete-orological disaster is primarily located in the southern and northern part of the province,the moderate-risk region is distributed in the central southern region and western region,the low-risk region is located in the eastern part,and the light-risk region is located in the central western part of Heilongjiang Province.