Antibiotic-Resistant Bacterial Group in Field Soil Evaluated by a Newly Developed Method Based on Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis

Spreading of antibiotic resistant bacteria into environment is becoming a major public health problem, implicating affair of the indirect transmission of antibiotic resistant bacteria to human through drinking water, or vegetables, or daily products. Until now, the risk of nosocomial infection of antibiotic resistant bacteria has mainly been evaluated using clinical isolates by phenotypic method. To evaluate a risk of community-acquired infection of antibiotic resistant bacteria, a new method has been developed based on PCR-RFLP without isolation. By comparing restriction fragment lengths of the 16S rDNA gene from bacterial mixture grown under antibiotic treatment to those simulated from the DNA sequence, bacterial taxonomies were elucidated using the method of Okuda and Watanabe [1] [2]. In this study, taxonomies of polymyxin B resistant bacteria group in field soils, paddy field with organic manure and upland field without organic manure were estimated without isolation. In the both field soils, the major bacteria grown under the antibiotic were B. cereus group, which had natural resistance to this antibiotic. In field applied with organic manure, Prevotella spp., and the other Cytophagales, which were suggested to be of feces origin and to acquire resistance to the antibiotic, were detected. When numbers of each bacterial group were roughly estimated by the most probable number method, B. cereus group was enumerated to be 3.30 × 106 MPN/g dry soil in paddy field soil and 1.32 × 106 MPN/g dry soil in upland filed. Prevotella spp. and the other Cytophagales in paddy field were enumerated to be 1.31 × 106 MPN, and 1.07 × 106 MPN·g-1 dry soil.

Probability Analysis for the Damage of Gravity Dam

Damage reliability analysis is an emerging field of structural engineering which is very significant in structures of great importance like arch dams, large concrete gravity dams etc. The research objective is to design and construct an improved method for damage reliability analysis for concrete gravity dam. Firstly, pseudo excitation method and Mazar damage model were used to analyze how to calculate damage expected value excited by random seismic loading and deterministic static load on the condition that initial elastic modulus was deterministic. Moreover, response surface method was improved from the aspects of the regression of sample points, the selection of experimental points, the determined method of weight matrix and the calculation method of checking point respectively. Then, the above method was used to analyze guarantee rate of damage expected value excited by random seismic loading and deterministic static load on the condition that initial elastic modulus was random. Finally, a test example was given to verify and analyze the convergence and stability of this method. Compared with other conventional algorithm, this method has some strong points: this algorithm has good convergence and stability and greatly enhances calculation efficiency and the storage efficiency. From what has been analyzed, we find that damage expected value is insensitive to the randomness of initial elastic modulus so we can neglect the randomness of initial elastic modulus in some extent when we calculate damage expected value.

Bacterial Groups Concerned with Maturing Process in Manure Production Analyzed by a Method Based on Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis

Composting is a biological aerobic decomposition process consisted from different phases. Although the Japanese Standards for manure recommended that it took at least 6 months to complete the maturing phase, there was no reliable ground. In order to find out shortening method of the maturing phase, the microorganisms concerned with a progress of the maturing was determined by using the most probable number method (MPN) and PCR-RFLP of the 16S rDNA, which was found effective to provide numbers and taxonomy of polymyxin B resistant bacterial groups in the former paper [1]. Compared to the numbers after thermophilic phase, those of Actinobacteria, δ-proteobacteria, and the other gram negative bacteria increased to 50 times, 20 times, and 105 times, respectively, after maturing phase, while those of Bacillus spp., and α and β-proteobacteria decreased to 1/10, and 1/105 after maturing phase. Numbers of the other Fumicutes, and γ-proteobacteria remained in the same revel. Actinobacteria, δ-proteobacteria, and the other gram negative bacteria might be concerned with a progress of the maturing phase, because these bacterial groups were detected and enumerated due to their proliferation ability. Although number of Acitinobacteria might be underestimated because of a PCR bias, the method was found effective for the purpose to monitor bacteria actively proliferated in culture medium.

Evaluation of the Method Based on Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis as Simple Analysis Method of Lactic Acid Bacteria in Foods

Lactic acid bacteria have not only been used to produce various kinds of fermented food, but also used as probiotic products. As lactic acid bacterial group was consisted from diverse genera, a simple inspection method by which numbers and contained microorganisms could be automatically analyzed without any preliminary information was required to use them more effectively. In this manuscript, lactic acid bacterial groups in commercial products of kimuchi, komekouji-miso, and yoghurt were identified and enumerated by our newly developed method [1]-[3], to evaluate whether the method could be used as an inspection method of various food samples. In kimuchi, numerically dominant bacteria were Lactobacillus sakei, and L. casei (1.4 × 104 MPN g-1) and Leuconostoc spp. (l.4 × 104 MPN). In kouji-miso, numerically dominant bacteria was Bacillus spp. (3 × 103 MPN), which mainly included B. subtilis group and B. cereus group. Lactic acid bacteria such as Lactobacillus spp., or Lactococcus spp., included in the komekouji-miso, could be enumerated after 3 days incubation (1.24 × 104 MPN), but not detected after 7 days incubation. In yoghurt A and C, Lactococcus lactis was detected as numerically dominant lactic acid bacteria (3.0 × 105 MPN). In yoghurt B, Lactobacillus spp., or Lactococcus spp., was detected not only by a culturebased method but also by an unculture-based method, although there was a difference between the both estimated numbers. The present results suggested that the method might become useful as a simple inspection method of food microorganisms, because time and labor of the analysis could be reduced by using an unculture-based method and MCE-202 MultiNA. In this study, Bifidobacteriium spp. was not detected in B and C yoghurt, in spite of indicating their existence, and numbers of lactic acid bacteria were lower than the level of the daily product regulation, because 16S rDNA of Bifidobacteriium spp. might not be amplified by the used PCR condition. The PCR condition must be changed so as to amplify Bifidobacterium spp., before the method will be used as an inspection method for lactic acid bacteria.

Reliability analysis of piles constructed on slopes under laterally loading

Response surface method is used to study the reliability analysis of laterally loaded piles in sloping ground. A development load-displacement （p-y） curve for laterally loaded pile response in sloping ground is used to model the pile-soil system, both the pile head displacement and the maximum bending moment of the piles are used as the performance criteria in this study. The reliability analysis method of the laterally loaded pile in sloping ground under the pile head displacement and the maximum bending moment failure modes is proposed, which is in good agreement with the Monte Carlo method. The influences on the probability index of failure by a number of parameters are discussed. It is shown that the variability of pile head displacement increases with the increase in the coefficients of variation of ultimate bearing capacity factor （Npu）, secant elastic modulus at 50%（E50） and level load （H）. A negative correlation between Npu and non-dimensional factor （λ） leads to less spread out probability density function （PDF） of the pile head displacement;in contrast, a positive correlation between Npu andλgives a great variation in the PDF of pile head displacement. As for bearing capacity factor on ground surface （Npo） and λ, both negative and positive correlations between them give a great variation in the PDF of pile head displacement, and a negative correlation will obviously increase the variability of the response.

Probabilistic model and analysis of coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system with uncertain structural parameters

Random dynamic responses caused by the uncertainty of structural parameters of the coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system under train loading can pose safety concerns to the train operation.This paper introduced a computational model for analyzing probabilistic dynamic responses of three-dimensional(3D)coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system(TBTSS),where the coupling effects of uncertain rail irregularities,stiffness and damping properties of ballast and subgrade layers were simultaneously considered.The number theoretical method(NTM)was employed to design discrete points for the multi-dimensional stochastic parameters.The time-histories of stochastic dynamic vibrations of the TBSS with systematically uncertain structural parameters were calculated accurately and efficiently by employing the probability density evolution method(PDEM).The model-predicted results were consistent with those by the Monte Carlo simulation method.A sensitivity study was performed to assess the relative importance of those uncertain structural parameters,based on which a case study was presented to explore the stochastic probability evolution mechanism of such train-ballasted track-subgrade system.

Orthogonal expansion of ground motion and PDEM-based seismic response analysis of nonlinear structures

This paper introduces an orthogonal expansion method for general stochastic processes. In the method, a normalized orthogonal function of time variable t is first introduced to carry out the decomposition of a stochastic process and then a correlated matrix decomposition technique, which transforms a correlated random vector into a vector of standard uncorrelated random variables, is used to complete a double orthogonal decomposition of the stochastic processes. Considering the relationship between the Hartley transform and Fourier transform of a real-valued function, it is suggested that the first orthogonal expansion in the above process is carried out using the Hartley basis function instead of the trigonometric basis function in practical applications. The seismic ground motion is investigated using the above method. In order to capture the main probabilistic characteristics of the seismic ground motion, it is proposed to directly carry out the orthogonal expansion of the seismic displacements. The case study shows that the proposed method is feasible to represent the seismic ground motion with only a few random variables. In the second part of the paper, the probability density evolution method （PDEM） is employed to study the stochastic response of nonlinear structures subjected to earthquake excitations. In the PDEM, a completely uncoupled one-dimensional partial differential equation, the generalized density evolution equation, plays a central role in governing the stochastic seismic responses of the nonlinear structure. The solution to this equation will yield the instantaneous probability density function of the responses. Computational algorithms to solve the probability density evolution equation are described. An example, which deals with a nonlinear frame structure subjected to stochastic ground motions, is illustrated to validate the above approach.

Kernel Generalization of Multi-Rate Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis for Fault Detection in Nonlinear Process

In practical process industries,a variety of online and offline sensors and measuring instruments have been used for process control and monitoring purposes,which indicates that the measurements coming from different sources are collected at different sampling rates.To build a complete process monitoring strategy,all these multi-rate measurements should be considered for data-based modeling and monitoring.In this paper,a novel kernel multi-rate probabilistic principal component analysis(K-MPPCA)model is proposed to extract the nonlinear correlations among different sampling rates.In the proposed model,the model parameters are calibrated using the kernel trick and the expectation-maximum(EM)algorithm.Also,the corresponding fault detection methods based on the nonlinear features are developed.Finally,a simulated nonlinear case and an actual pre-decarburization unit in the ammonia synthesis process are tested to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Quantitative Human Reliability Analysis for Crew During Shipping Operation

A simplified bi-variable human error probability calculation method is developed by incorporating two common performance condition( CPC) factors, which are modified from factors employed in cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM) to take into account the characteristics of shipping operations. After the influencing factors are identified, Markov method is used to calculate the values of human reliability. The proposed method does not rely on the involvement of experts in the field of human factor nor depend on historical accidents or human error statistics. It is applied to the case of the crew on board of an ocean going dry bulk carrier. The caculated results agree with the actual case, which verifies the validity of the model.

A Framework for Modern Risk-Informed Root Cause Analysis Process

The paper discusses the framework for a risk-informed root cause analysis process.Such process enables scaling of the analysis performed based on the risk associated with the undesired event or condition,thereby creating tiers of analysis where the greater the risk,the more sophisticated the analysis.In a risk-informed root cause analysis process,a situation is normally not analyzed at a level less than what actually occurred.However,a situation may be investigated as though the consequence were greater than actually happened,especially if only slight differences in circumstances could result in a significantly higher consequence.While operational events or safety issues are normally expected to result only with negligible or marginal actual consequences,many of those would actually have certain potential to develop or propagate into catastrophic events.This potential can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.Risk-informing of root cause analysis relies on mapping the event or safety issue into a risk matrix which,traditionally,is a two-dimensional probability-consequence matrix.A new concept employed in the risk matrix for root cause analysis is that,while the probability reflects the observed or expected range of values(retaining,thus,its“traditional”meaning),the consequence reflects not only the observed or materialized impact(such as failure of equipment)but,also,its potential to propagate or develop into highly undesirable final state.The paper presents main elements of risk-informed root cause analysis process and discusses qualitative and quantitative aspects and approaches to determination of risk significance of operational events or safety issues.

A new method of formation evaluation for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs:A case study from the Lundong area,Tarim Basin,China

The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong area experienced a series of diagenesis and tectonic evolution stages.And secondary storage spaces such as fractures and dissolution caves were developed while nearly all the primary pores have disappeared.Based on a summary of different types of storage spaces and their responses in conventional logs,FMI and full waveform sonic logs which are sensitive to different reservoirs,the comprehensive probability index （CPI） method is applied to evaluating the reservoirs and a standard of reservoir classification is established.By comparing the evaluation results with actual welllogging results,the method has proven to be practical for formation evaluation of carbonate reservoirs,especially for the fractured carbonate reservoirs.In reservoir fluid identification,the multivariate stepwise discriminant analysis （MSDA） method is introduced.Combining the CPI method and MSDA method,comprehensive formation evaluation has been performed for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin.Additionally,on the basis of secondary pore inversion results,another new method of formation evaluation is also proposed in the discussion part of this paper.Through detailed application result analysis,the method shows a promising capability for formation evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs dominated by various secondary pores such as holes,caves,and cracks.

A Time-dependent Stochastic Grassland Fire Ignition Probability Model for Hulun Buir Grassland of China

Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors in the natural ecosystems.This paper focuses on the spatial distribution of long-term grassland fire patterns in the Hulun Buir Grassland located in the northeast of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China.The density or ratio of ignition can reflect the relationship between grassland fire and different ignition factors.Based on the relationship between the density or ratio of ignition in different range of each ignition factor and grassland fire events,an ignition probability model was developed by using binary logistic regression function and its overall accuracy averaged up to 81.7%.Meanwhile it was found that daily relative humidity,daily temperature,elevation,vegetation type,distance to county-level road,distance to town are more important determinants of spatial distribution of fire ignitions.Using Monte Carlo method,we developed a time-dependent stochastic ignition probability model based on the distribution of inter-annual daily relative humidity and daily temperature.Through this model,it is possible to estimate the spatial patterns of ignition probability for grassland fire,which will be helpful to the quantitative evaluation of grassland fire risk and its management in the future.

A Semi-Analytical Method for the PDFs of A Ship Rolling in Random Oblique Waves

The PDFs(probability density functions) and probability of a ship rolling under the random parametric and forced excitations were studied by a semi-analytical method. The rolling motion equation of the ship in random oblique waves was established. The righting arm obtained by the numerical simulation was approximately fitted by an analytical function. The irregular waves were decomposed into two Gauss stationary random processes, and the CARMA(2, 1) model was used to fit the spectral density function of parametric and forced excitations. The stochastic energy envelope averaging method was used to solve the PDFs and the probability. The validity of the semi-analytical method was verified by the Monte Carlo method. The C11 ship was taken as an example, and the influences of the system parameters on the PDFs and probability were analyzed. The results show that the probability of ship rolling is affected by the characteristic wave height, wave length, and the heading angle. In order to provide proper advice for the ship’s manoeuvring, the parametric excitations should be considered appropriately when the ship navigates in the oblique seas.

Identification and Enumeration Method of Both Eukaryotic and Prokaryotic Microorganisms in Food Sample

The method to analyze both eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms without preliminary microbial information of sample seemed to be useful not only for research and investigation of microorganisms but also for industry using microorganisms. In the present manuscript, preparation of a new DNA primers, new reference database for 18S rDNA for our newly developed method [1]- [3], and analyses of eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms in fermentation products were presented. In komekouji, Aspergillus spp., was enumerated to be 46.5 × 106 MPN g-1, and Penicillium spp., was enumerated to be 1.5 × 106 MPN g-1. In dry yeast, Saccharomyces group, were enumerated to be 8600 × 106 MPN g-1. In komekouji-miso, no eukaryotic microorganism was detected, while the other Bacillus spp., was numerically dominant (21.5 × 106 MPN g-1) as prokaryotic microorganisms, followed by B. subtilis group (4.65 × 106 MPN g-1), and the other Firmicutes (3.7 × 106 MPN g-1). The komekouji-miso included lower number of Actinobacteria (0.15 × 106 MPN g-1), Burkhokderia sp. (1.5 × 106 MPN g-1), and the other α,β,γ-proteobacteria (0.12 × 106 MPN g-1). In sake-kasu, both prokaryote and eukaryote were not detected by the method. Present results indicated that using both universal primers for eukaryotic and prokaryotic microorganisms, each groups of prokaryotic and eukaryotic microorganisms were enumerated without any preliminary information nor setting up standard curve, which were required for real time PCR.

A New Evaluation Method for Antibiotic-Resistant Bacterial Groups in Environment

In the present manuscript it was presented whether spreading of antibiotic resistant bacterial groups in environment could be monitored by our newly developed method by enumerating antibiotic resistant bacterial groups in various biological wastes and composts. Although the numbers were not so high, diverse kinds of colistin resistant bacteria (25 mg·L-1) were included in row cattle feces (1.78 × 104 MPN g-1) and cattle feces manure (>3.84 × 104 MPN g-1). Compost originated from leftover food (>44.8 × 104 MPN g-1) and shochu lee (>320 × 104 MPN g-1) included higher numbers of chlortetracycline resistant Pseudomonas sp., (25 mg·L-1), and row cattle feces included higher numbers of chlortetracycline resistant Enterobacteriacea (15.7 × 104 MPN g-1), which mostly consisted from Pantoea sp. or Xenorhobdus doucetiae. Numbers of multi drug resistant bacteria, resistant to 25 mg·L-1 of ciprofloxacin, streptomycin, chloramphenicol, and ampicillin, were the highest in row cattle feces (>143.6 × 104 MPN g-1), followed by cattle feces manure (4.19 × 104 MPN g-1), and shochu lee (0.36 × 104 MPN g-1), which included diverse kinds of bacterial group. The present results indicated that higher numbers of multi drug resistant bacteria were typically found in row cattle feces, and the method was found suitable to enumerate and identify them. These results suggested that the method might become their environmental risk evaluation method.

外置耗能角钢的摇摆-自复位桥梁双柱墩地震易损性分析

为评估设置耗能角钢的摇摆-自复位桥梁双柱墩的抗震能力,本文建立该结构的有限元分析模型,分别定义和量化双柱墩不同损伤状态和损伤指标。本文从太平洋地震工程研究中心选取16条近断层地震动,基于增量动力分析,得到该结构的地震响应。基于最小二乘法,对得到的增量动力分析曲线进行对数回归分析,计算结构不同损伤状态的超越概率及易损性曲线。研究表明:当地面峰值加速度为0.1 g时,外置耗能角钢与耗能钢筋屈服的超越概率分别为34%和22%;当峰值加速度为0.4 g时,外置耗能角钢与耗能钢筋失效的超越概率分别为6%和11%,而预应力筋未屈服;当峰值加速度为1.0 g时,外置耗能角钢和耗能钢筋失效的概率分别达到85%和91%,桥墩发生倒塌的概率为46%。

基于随机动力分析的高土石坝极限抗震能力研究

地震动的随机性对大坝的动力响应影响较大,极限抗震能力作为大坝抗震安全性能的重要环节,在评估过程中也应该充分考虑荷载随机性的影响。基于大量高土石坝随机动力有限元计算,探究坝顶震陷率和坝坡累计滑移量两个重要坝体变形指标之间的关系,并建议了土石坝安全控制标准。利用概率密度演化法对高土石坝进行极限抗震能力分析。结果表明:震陷率随着累计滑移量的增大而增大,二者之间符合逻辑斯蒂增长模型;取10%的超越概率,以250m规则高面板堆石坝和高心墙堆石坝为例,极限抗震能力分别为0.7g~0.75g和0.8g~0.85g;从概率角度提出了评估大坝极限抗震能力的新方法。

深水导管架平台波浪动力响应及参数敏感性分析

考虑到300 m级导管架平台的自振周期与自升式平台极为接近,自升式平台的波浪动力响应分析方法在理论上可应用于深水导管架平台,但应用前需要进行参数敏感性分析,采用SACS软件建立300 m级导管架平台有限元模型,结合JONSWAP波浪谱、利用线性叠加法构造满足高斯性条件的随机波浪;基于时域分析法,进行在随机波浪载荷下的结构动力响应分析;采用Winterstein/Jensen方法计算平台基底剪力和倾覆力矩的最可能最大值,以及动力放大系数;对波浪瞬态变化、模拟步长和时长、随机种子等参数对动力放大系数进行敏感性分析,结果表明,动力放大系数对波浪瞬态变化较为敏感、对模拟步长和时长,以及随机种子极为敏感。采用Winterstein/Jensen方法进行深水导管架平台动力响应分析时,基于敏感性分析得出的参数可获得更合理、准确的动力放大系数。

基于三相动态谐波分析的电能表误差检测方法

在检测电能表误差时,原始信号中谐波的干扰会导致检测结果与实际情况存在较大偏差。为此,提出基于三相动态谐波分析的电能表误差检测方法。在谐波分析阶段,考虑到谐波的动态属性会导致三相信号的采样执行效果难以达到同步,构建了余弦组合窗——旁瓣最低与最速下降窗,利用其对电能表离散信号进行截取,以此避免信号能量向临近谱线泄漏,再利用离散傅里叶变换对信号进行处理,实现对谐波的提取。在误差检测阶段,以离散随机信号的概率密度函数为导向,采用最优直方图曲线拟合法对其加以分析,并结合标准情况下电能表信号的分布状态,实现对误差的计算。在测试结果中,电能表误差检测结果的偏差始终稳定在3.0%以内。

济宁岱庄煤矿采空区注浆治理工程建设适宜性评价

济宁市任城区五里屯建设项目位于岱庄煤矿注浆治理采空区的上方,本文根据该采空区注浆治理工程后地表变形监测数据,采用概率分析法计算充填后地表残余变形,残余下沉量2~16mm,地表残余倾斜最大值为0.06mm/m,残余水平移动最大值为4mm,残余水平变形最大值为0.06mm/m,确定采空区场地为稳定场地。按采空区对建筑工程的影响和拟建工程项目对采空区的影响两个方面评价工程建设的适宜性,为工程设计提供依据。