Multi-scenario Simulation of the Impact of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Service Value in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area,China

As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.

Mountain Land Use Planning of Metropolitan Suburbs:the Case of the Jinyun Mountain and Its Surrounding area,Chongqing,China

Open space of metropolitan suburbs in mountain region, has been increasingly becoming the coupling mosaic structure of industrial actions and landscape behaviors. However, the local governments, when making land use planning, often aim at economic development, and rarely refer to the coordination of compatibilities and conflicts between industrial actions and landscape behaviors in the mosaic structure. In this study land use in the Jinyun Mountain and its surrounding area, Chongqing is adjusted by gray multi-objective programming approach and local-level decision-making process to cope with conflicts between objectives for human welfare and objectives for landscape conservation. The results indicate that： 1） the compatibilities and conflicts among different behavior characters and different landscape types result in the compatibilities of landscape to human behavior; 2） a land use planning in the study area is produced based on the sustainable land use and social-eco development, which pays more attention to the resources and environment constraints and economic objectives, and follows the distribution law of rare resources; 3） in the study area, cultivated land of 1,207.27 ha can meet the demands for food and byproducts by the residents there, orchard land and forestland of 632.55 ha, 2,276.61 ha, respectively can provide enough spaee for the local people to improve their living structure and meet their demands for reereational activities, and urban residential land, rural residential land, mining land and transportation land of 1107.60 ha, 120.27 ha, 162.48 ha, 100.91 ha, respeetively can satisfy the resident＇s eeonomie development and infrastructures; 4） the equilibrium among industrial actions, landscape accessibility and ecological conservation can be obtained by analyzing the possible impaets of human activities on landscape eeologieal proeess in open spaee of metropolitan suburbs in mountain areas.

A Three-dimensional IP-based Telecom Metropolitan Area Network Model

The Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) has faced serious problems after years of rapid development. The model of three-dimensional IP-based MAN, proposed by ZTE, is a next-generation MAN solution, which not only solves the existing problems but also brings new ideas for the development of next-generation MAN.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability to COVID-19: The Spatial Case of Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA)

COVID-19 has presented itself with an extreme impact on the resources of its epi-centres. In Uganda, there is uncertainty about what will happen especially in the main urban hub, the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). Consequently, public health professionals have scrambled into resource-driven strategies and planning to tame the spread. This paper, therefore, deploys spatial modelling to contribute to an understanding of the spatial variation of COVID-19 vulnerability in the GKMA using the socio-economic characteristics of the region. Based on expert opinion on the prevailing novel Coronavirus, spatially driven indicators were generated to assess vulnerability. Through an online survey and auxiliary datasets, these indicators were transformed, classified, and weighted based on the BBC vulnerability framework. These were spatially modelled to assess the vulnerability indices. The resultant continuous indices were aggregated, explicitly zoned, classified, and ranked based on parishes. The resultant spatial nature of vulnerability to COVID-19 in the GKMA sprawls out of major urban areas, diffuses into the peri-urban, and thins into the sparsely populated areas. The high levels of vulnerability (24.5% parishes) are concentrated in the major towns where there are many shopping malls, transactional offices, and transport hubs. Nearly half the total parishes in the GKMA (47.3%) were moderately vulnerable, these constituted mainly the parishes on the outskirts of the major towns while 28.2% had a low vulnerability. The spatial approach presented in this paper contributes to providing a rapid assessment of the socio-economic vulnerability based on administrative decision units-parishes. This essentially equips the public health domain with the right diagnosis to subject the highly exposed and vulnerable communities to regulatory policy, increase resilience incentives in low adaptive areas and optimally deploy resources to avoid the emancipation of high susceptibility areas into an epicentre of Covid-19.

Influencing Factors of Housing Sales Vacancy in the Guangzhou Metropolitan Area,China

In this paper,nine indicators selected from three perspectives(convenience,environmental and location characteristics)and three regression models(OLS,SLM and SEM)are used to explore the influencing factors of housing sales vacancy in the Guangzhou Metropolitan Area,China.The results show that subway accessibility,peripheral aversion municipal facilities and distance from the CBD(Central Business District)are consistent with theoretical expectations.Subway accessibility is negatively correlated with the housing sales vacancy rates,while peripheral aversion municipal facilities and distance from the CBD are positively correlated with housing vacancy rates.

Cassini Growth of Population Between Two Metropolitan Cities——A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin Region,China

The existing models of population distribution often focus on the region with a single city or even multiple centers, and lack the detailed explorations of the common and special type of urbanization areas with two centers. Taking Beijing-Tianjin region of China, which is a distinct dual-nuclei metropolitan area in the world, as an example and choosing Landsat-5 TM image in 2005, population, etc. as the data, this paper devotes to comprehending and illustrating a model of Cassini growth of population between the two metropolitan cities through the research of spatial population distribution pattern, aided with RS and GIS techniques. Main technical processes include Kriging interpolation of the population data and character simulation of the Cassini ovals. According to the calculation of a/b, a key characteristic index of Cassini growth model, the spatial structures of population distribution were given. When a/b〈 1, it is a curve with two separated loops with a population density more than 3000 persons/km^2. When a/b=1, it is a lemniscate curve with a population density about 3000 persons/km^2. When 1〈a/b〈 √2, it is a dog-bone shaped concave curve with a population density between 500-3000 persons/km^2. When a/b= √2, it is an oblate curve with a population density about 500 persons/km^2. When a/b〉 √2, there is an oval-shaped convex curve with a population density less than 500 persons/km^2. The results show that owing to the combined action and influence of the regional dual-nuclei, the population distribution of Beijing-Tianjin region is in accord with Cassini model significantly. Therefore, there is Cassini growth of population between the two metropolitan cities in Beijing-Tianjin region. In addition, the process of Cassini growth has extraordinarily instructive significance for judging the development stages of the dual-nuclei metropolitan areas.

Accuracy assessments and uncertainty analysis of spatially explicit modeling for land use/cover change and urbanization:A case in Beijing metropolitan area

Spatially explicit modeling plays a vital role in land use/cover change and urbanization research as well as resources management;however,current models lack proper validation and fail to incorporate uncertainty into the formulation of model predictions.Consequently,policy makers and the general public may develop opinions based on potentially misleading research,which fails to allow for truly informed decisions.Here we use an uncertainty strategy of spatially explicit modeling combined with the series statistic of Kappa index for location and quantity to estimate the uncertainty of future predications and to determine model accuracy.We take the Beijing metropolitan area as an example to demonstrate the uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land use change and urban sprawl with spatially explicit modeling at multiple resolutions.The sensitivity of scale effects is also discussed.The results show that an improvement in specification of location is more helpful in increasing accuracy as compared to an improvement in the specification of quantity at fine spatial resolutions.However,the spatial scale has great effects on modeling accuracy and correct due to chance tends to increase as resolution becomes coarser.The results allow us to understand the uncertainty when using spatially explicit models for land-use change or urbanization estimates.

西安都市圈生态空间结构特征与生态网络构建研究

面对西安都市圈发展过程中出现的生态空间碎片化问题,生态功能完善的需求及区域高质量一体化的发展目标,通过分析西安都市圈生态空间景观格局,提取其结构特征进而构建区域生态网络。利用形态学空间格局等方法提取西安都市圈生态空间结构特征,通过植被覆盖演变分析并识别潜在的具有生态功能的用地,通过设计转化阻力指标体系获得区域生态网络的构建基础。提出网络整合、廊道桥接、网络织补、生态修复4种生态网络整合策略。通过分析生态空间结构发现都市圈的生态斑块、廊道等不同类型生态功能区的分布特点,针对都市圈尺度提出多中心生态网络的规划模式,针对重要生态单元提出“核心—廊道—缓冲区”的规划模式,基于不同的整合策略调整生态用地布局及空间结构,以提高生态网络的连通性与稳定性,构建都市圈生态网络。聚焦生态空间结构演变机制分析、生态网络构建技术路径及模式探索,提出西安都市圈的生态空间结构,为生态空间规划提供新思路和新方法,这对于推动中国都市圈发展迈向更高水平具有积极意义。

Developing an integrated urban ecological efficiency framework for spatial ecological planning:A case on a tropical mega metropolitan area of the global south

Rapid urbanization has emerged as one of the most critical challenges to ecological sustainability in urban areas.In developing countries,the degradation of the ecosystem is more prominent due to the lack of urban planning.Thus,it has become urgent for researchers to identify the ecological efficiency(EE)changes imposed by urban expansion and promote sustainable land use planning.This study aims to develop a comprehensive urban ecological efficiency(UEE)framework in the Kolkata Metropolitan Area(KMA),India,from 2000 to 2020.Principal component analysis(PCA)was used to develop a remote sensing-based UEE index(UEEI)based on five effective ecological parameters(Greenness,Dryness,Heat,Wetness and vegetation health.A single sensitivity parameter was also calculated to determine the role of a single parameter based on which management strategies can be carried out.The findings showed that(i)there were substantial deteriorations of UEE in the last 20 years.In 2000 the areas with good EE were about 65.5%which declined to 53.72%in 2010 and 20.87%in 2020.The areas with good UEE decreased 68%and 61%from 2000 to 2020 and 2010 to 2020,respectively;(ii)the areas with good UEE were 52%in 2000,while 38%in 2010.Most urban centres(Bhadreshwar,Champdani,Srirampur,Bally,Howrah,Kamarhati,Baranagar,Dum Dum,South Dum Dum,Rajarhat,Bidhannagar)located around the Kolkata megacity are characterized by poor and very poor EE(ranges of 0.60-1.00).Thus,spatiotemporal pattern of UEE could assist to clarify the administrative responsibilities as well as obligations.In addition to this,the UEE framework can help for scientific guidance of urban ecosystem protection and restoration through comprehensive spatial landscape planning.

Identifying the scope of the Lhasa Metropolitan Area based on a spatial field energy model

The cultivation and development of modern metropolitan areas with the aim of establishing new regional centers with competitive edge is a key objective for the new-type urbanization directions in China.The construction of the Lhasa Metropolitan Area is of great significance for the promotion of the South Asia Channel,the‘Belt and Road’initiative,the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor,the Himalaya Economic Cooperation Zone,and for rapid development and long-term stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.This paper examines the scope of the Lhasa Metropolitan Area including Chengguanqu(Chengguan District),Doilungdeqen,Dagze,Lhunzhub,Damxung,Nyemo,Quxu,Maizhokunggar,Samzhubze Qu(Samzhubze District),Gyangze,Rinbung,Bainang,Nedong,Gonggar,and Zhanang using a spatial field energy model that combines nodality and accessibility indices and considers multiple indicators including traffic flow between cities.By combining factors such as the natural background,population agglomeration,the social economy,infrastructure construction,and the urban spatial structure of the Lhasa Metropolitan Area,it is proposed to build a bow-and-arrow-shaped urban system with‘one core,two centers,one axis,and two wings’along the valleys and the transportation trunk lines of the area.The study advocates the construction of a pure land industrial system comprising a green cultural and tourism-oriented plateau.

日本三大都市圈整备规划的特征分析及启示

日本自1950年《首都建设法》颁布以来,在都市圈整备方面积累了一定经验。从日本大都市圈广域地方规划相关法律入手,分析并整理了与广域地方规划相关联的《国土形成规划法》和三大都市圈整备法等法律构成及内容。针对三大都市圈的广域地方规划和整备规划等展开研究,从规划编制、规划实施等方面分析比较其构成及主要内容,同时阐述三大都市圈“广域联合机制”特点。最后,基于日本大都市圈建设经验,结合中国都市圈发展现状,得到规划立法、广域地方规划制定、用地划分指导和管理机制协调等方面的启示,以期为中国都市圈的立法、整备规划工作实施提供启示及参考。

基于生态系统服务簇分析的福州都市圈生态保护空缺识别研究

在快速城市化背景下,都市圈面临经济发展和生态保护之间不协调的问题。以福州都市圈为例,运用In VEST模型评估2020年生境质量、碳固存、土壤保持、水源涵养4项关键生态系统服务,分析其空间分布特征,基于此利用SOM聚类分析福州都市圈的生态系统服务簇,识别空间特征和主导生态系统服务簇,进而识别福州都市圈生态保护空缺。结果表明:(1)2020年福州都市圈生态系统服务呈现“西北高,东南低”的空间格局,中部生态系统服务价值低;(2)福州都市圈6类生态系统服务簇空间分布具有异质性;(3)福州都市圈核心生态系统服务簇为B5簇,主要用地类型为林地和草地,碳固存、生境质量和土壤保持服务高,水源涵养服务较低,综合生态价值高,其次为B4和B6簇,B2簇生态系统服务较低;(4)福州都市圈保护空缺区域主要分布于鹫峰山脉和戴云山脉,整体保护空缺率为1.85%。研究结果可为福州都市圈区域生态保护与格局优化提供思路。

特大城市都市区生态空间识别评价、网络构建与优化模型研究

在国家生态文明建设的要求下,生态空间作为承载城市生态信息和能量的重要用地,是促进特大城市空间结构合理形成的重要因素,也是城市高质量发展及高品质人居环境建设的关键。以6个特大(超大)城市都市区为研究对象,基于MSPA-InVEST复合模型对生态空间进行识别和评价,通过生境质量评价结果提取核心生态源地并生成生态阻力面,运用最小累计阻力模型(MCR)构建各特大城市都市区生态空间网络。在此基础上,结合对特大城市生态空间结构进化趋势的分析,提出各特大城市都市区生态空间结构的优化模式,并探索构建了“绿楔+绿环”的环网放射式和“绿心+绿带”的带网棋盘式2种特大城市都市区生态空间结构优化模型,以期为中国特大城市都市区生态空间格局优化和可持续发展提供理论支撑和实践指导,也为优化特大城市国土空间格局提供参考和借鉴。

协调发展视角下大南昌都市圈城市增长边界的划定

科学划定城市增长边界(UGB)能合理引导城市发展方向,有效抑制无序蔓延。基于协调发展视角,结合多目标土地利用适宜性评价方法与PLUS模型划定大南昌都市圈刚性UGB及自然增长、政策约束、协调发展3种情景下的弹性UGB。结果表明:①多目标土地利用适宜性呈现空间差异且存在重叠和交叉,协调发展最适宜区与农业生产最适宜区、生态保护最重要区重叠面积相比城镇建设最适宜区均有所下降;②刚性UGB面积占研究区总面积的76.11%,保障大南昌都市圈城市扩张严格遵循生态保护红线和粮食安全底线;③PLUS模型模拟结果总体呈耕地、林地、草地、未利用地减少以及水域和建设用地增加的趋势,其中建设用地扩张最显著,但协调发展情景下城市扩张得到有效约束,且该情景下弹性UGB能有效减缓城市扩张占用农业或生态价值最高区域,更能优化城市景观格局。研究结果有利于引导和实现大南昌都市圈城市可持续发展,也可为其他城市三生空间协调发展提供参考。

基于PLUS模型的长株潭都市圈景观生态风险动态分析

基于土地利用数据和景观生态风险评价模型,分析2000—2020年长株潭都市圈景观生态风险时空演变特征,结合PLUS模型科学预测自然发展情景和生态保护情景下2030年长株潭都市圈的景观生态风险空间分布格局。结果表明:①2000—2020年长株潭都市圈景观生态风险呈现北高南低、西高东低的空间分布特征,较低和中等生态风险区域总面积占比大于60%,生态风险加剧区域面积不到生态风险降低区域面积的1%,整体表现出高等级生态风险区向低等级生态风险区转移的特征;②研究区景观生态风险表现出较强的空间集聚特征,高—高集聚区主要分布在宁乡市、望城区、渌口区、雨花区和长沙县,低—低集聚区主要分布在研究区边界;③相比自然发展情景,生态保护情景下生态用地减少速率变缓,有助于缓解研究区生态风险,有利于构建和谐有序的生态安全格局。

福州都市圈生态系统服务价值时空演变及生态-经济协调发展

量化分析区域生态系统服务价值(ESV)演变以及空间分异因素,研究生态-经济协调一致性发展特征,有助于推动城市群与都市圈生态功能提升。以福州都市圈为例,基于2001年、2010年、2020年遥感影像数据,采用优化生态系统服务价值评估模型、重心模型、变异系数、协调性指数和一致性指数,结合GIS空间可视化分析,测度福州都市圈生态系统服务价值演变并分析其与经济发展的时空协调演变特征,最后对福州都市圈的生态-经济协调发展战略提出建议。结果表明:①2001~2020年,福州都市圈整体生态系统服务价值先减后增;其中,福州、莆田先减后增,宁德四县(市、区)和南平三区(市)则持续增加;②第一产业占比、年平均气温和植被覆盖率对生态系统服务价值的空间分异解释力较高,在原有自然条件的限制下,福州都市圈生态系统服务价值的空间分异更易受人为因子的干扰而扩大;③福州、莆田、宁德四县(市、区)的生态系统服务重心具有不断远离经济重心的趋势,二者逐渐割裂;④福州都市圈生态经济协调发展冲突尚不明显,但生态系统服务价值增长速度落后于GDP增长速度的区域数量较多,经济发展正在承受越来越大的生态压力,2001~2020年间福州都市圈形成福州、莆田、宁德城区经济集聚与中部六县生态集聚并存的格局。

武汉都市圈乡村地域系统结构与功能演变及耦合优化

研究目的:基于“人—地—域”与“三生空间”视角,分析2010—2020年武汉都市圈乡村地域系统结构与功能的时空演变特征,系统探讨结构与功能的耦合关系及其优化路径。研究方法:指标评价法和弹性系数模型。研究结果:(1)武汉都市圈乡村地域系统结构与功能指数空间格局相对稳定,2010—2020年结构与功能指数整体呈现波动上升趋势。(2)根据结构与功能指数变化及弹性系数的组合特征,将武汉都市圈乡村地域划分为6种类型。(3)协调增长区应找准特色发展主轴,巩固脱贫攻坚成果;双减区应变被动虹吸为主动承接,依托特色引领产业发展;结构滞后增长区和结构减—功能增反向区应借助区位优势打造品牌,实现转型发展;功能滞后增长区和结构增—功能减反向区应推动农村农业现代化,改善农村人居环境。研究结论:乡村地域系统结构与功能存在显著的阶段性和分异性耦合特征,通过制定针对性分区优化策略,促进乡村地域系统结构与功能的协调发展。

武汉城市圈土地利用碳排放时空演变及驱动因素

[目的]产业和人口的集中造成大量资源消耗和高额碳排放,开展城市圈尺度的碳排放研究可以为城市圈碳减排提供科学参考和借鉴。[方法]以遥感影像和经济社会数据为基础,构建碳排放测算模型及时空地理加权回归模型,探究武汉城市圈3期(2000年、2010年、2020年)土地利用碳源/碳汇时空演变规律及其影响因素的时空异质性。[结果](1)武汉城市圈土地利用碳排放由2000年的3 129.69万t增加到2020年的14 590.51万t,年均增长8.45%;(2)影响武汉城市圈碳排放的主要因素有产业结构,技术水平和建设用地占比;(3)武汉城市圈碳排放影响因素存在明显的空间异质性,各类因素对不同区域的碳排放影响存在较大差异。[结论]城市圈碳排放具有明显的时空异质性,不同城市资源水平及发展重心存在差异,从而导致碳排放水平产生变化。在进行区域碳减排政策制定和碳减排任务分配时,应充分考虑各地的经济水平及产业结构等因素。

南京都市圈跨市日常人口流动影响因素及其空间效应研究

跨市日常人口流动逐渐成为衡量都市圈一体化水平的重要因素,其不仅受到本地社会经济环境的影响,也受到邻近地区发展的空间效应影响,但目前对其影响因素及空间效应的讨论相对较少。因此,文章对其影响因素及其空间效应进行研究。研究发现:①南京都市圈跨市日常人口流动规模和节点控制力分别形成了以南京市为核心向外围扩散和以边界区域为核心沿主要交通走廊分布的空间格局。②其分布具有空间依赖性,流动规模主要体现在周边区域对空间单元的随机冲击,节点控制力主要体现在周边区域中介作用提升对本区域的空间溢出作用。③影响其空间格局的因素较为复杂,流动规模受到公服设施、交通建设、经济社会属性多种类型的因素影响,而节点控制力则主要与公服设施、交通建设相关。研究进一步丰富了日常人口流动的研究内容,既从空间效应维度对其形成机制进行补充,也为跨区域人口流动引导体系的构建提供了依据。

沈阳现代化都市圈水供给服务供需平衡研究

以沈阳现代化都市圈为研究区,从地级市尺度上综合自然水文过程和居民生产、生活消费需求,揭示区域水供给服务供需平衡关系,为区域水资源优化管理提供依据。基于GIS平台,采用2000、2010和2020年土地利用数据,耦合InVest模型产水量模块、水需求服务模型、水资源安全指数等多种方法,以空间可视化的方式模拟研究水供给服务格局。研究结果表明:2000-2020年沈阳现代化都市圈水供给量和水需求量均呈现先增多后减少的趋势,供需平衡状况差距较大;2000年沈阳市、鞍山市、辽阳市、铁岭市、阜新市的水资源安全指数以及2010年、2020年沈阳市、辽阳市水资源安全指数均低于0.5;研究区水供给服务的供给与需求在空间分布上呈现显著的不匹配特征,区域东部铁岭市、抚顺市、本溪市为主要供给区,中部沈阳市、辽阳市需大于供,水资源供需矛盾突出。研究框架思路与研究结果能够为都市圈尺度水资源供需矛盾的协调提供一定的决策依据。