Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions.However,microphysics parameterization(MP) and planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes remain an important sou...Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions.However,microphysics parameterization(MP) and planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes remain an important source of uncertainty,affecting rainfall intensity,occurrence,duration,and propagation.Here,we study the sensitivity of rainfall to three MP [Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) Single-Moment 6-class(WSM6),Thompson,and Morrison] and two PBL [the Yonsei University(YSU) and Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino(MYNN)] schemes with a convection-permitting resolution(4 km) over northwestern South America(NWSA).Simulations were performed by using the WRF model and the results were evaluated against soundings,rain gauges,and satellite data,considering the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over diverse regions prone to deep convection in NWSA.MP and PBL schemes largely influenced simulated rainfall,with better results for the less computationally expensive WSM6 MP and YSU PBL schemes.Regarding rain gauges and satellite estimates,simulations with Morrison MP overestimated rainfall,especially westward of the Andes,whereas the MYNN PBL underestimated precipitation in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands.We found that the uncertainty in the rainfall representation is highly dependent on the region,with a higher influence of MP in the Colombian Pacific and PBL in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands.When analyzing rainfall-related processes,the selection of both MP and PBL parameterizations exerted a large influence on the simulated lower tropospheric moisture flux and moisture convergence.PBL schemes significantly influenced the downward shortwave radiation,with MYNN simulating a greater amount of low clouds,which decreased the radiation income.Furthermore,latent heat fluxes were greater for YSU,favoring moist convection and rainfall.MP schemes had a marked impact on vertical velocity.Specifically,Morrison MP showed stronger convection and higher precipitation rates,which is associated with a greater latent heat release due to solid-phase hydrometeor formation.This study provides insights into assessing physical parameterizations in numerical models and suggests key processes for rainfall representation in NWSA.展开更多
边界层参数化方案中湍流混合对数值模拟起着重要的作用,湍流混合作用的恰当描述对于温度、湿度、风场以及降水的准确模拟至关重要。我国长江中下游流域人口密集,暴雨灾害频发,很有必要寻找一种适合该地区降水模拟的边界层参数化方案。...边界层参数化方案中湍流混合对数值模拟起着重要的作用,湍流混合作用的恰当描述对于温度、湿度、风场以及降水的准确模拟至关重要。我国长江中下游流域人口密集,暴雨灾害频发,很有必要寻找一种适合该地区降水模拟的边界层参数化方案。本文运用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)中尺度数值模式,以QNSE(Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination)边界层参数化方案为基础,将其中湍流混合长度尺度系数调整为可变参数。本文将Noh et al.(2003)提出的Prandtl公式与Janji?提出的修正湍流长度尺度系数的方法相结合,通过考虑非局地项的强迫、地表稳定度与边界层高度对湍流长度尺度系数的影响,强调大气的动力结构特征与热力结构特征对湍流混合的共同影响,从而提高QNSE边界层参数化方案在不同地理环境下的模拟能力。文章通过进行长江中下游地区的典型暴雨试验,将调整参数后的QNSE方案与原方案进行比较,重点分析调整参数后的方案与原方案对关键基本气象要素场、边界层结构特征以及降水的模拟能力,并将模拟结果与观测结果进行对比,结果表明:调整参数后的方案一定程度上改进了地表温度、边界层结构以及降水的模拟效果。进一步研究表明,调整参数后的方案主要通过改变边界层混合缓解水汽混合比、位温模拟方面的误差。展开更多
利用中尺度数值天气预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模拟晴天条件下北京边界层的气象场特征,并通过敏感性试验研究四组边界层参数化方案(YSU、ACM2、MYJ和BL)对辐射、地表能量、近地面气象要素以及边界层结构的模...利用中尺度数值天气预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模拟晴天条件下北京边界层的气象场特征,并通过敏感性试验研究四组边界层参数化方案(YSU、ACM2、MYJ和BL)对辐射、地表能量、近地面气象要素以及边界层结构的模拟差异。结果表明:四种边界层参数化方案都可以准确模拟向下短波辐射,对长波辐射的模拟能力相似。YSU方案模拟的感热通量最低,四种参数化方案对地表净辐射通量的模拟差异主要受到短波辐射的影响。MYJ方案模拟的2 m温度效果最好,YSU方案对2 m比湿以及10 m风速的模拟效果最优,综合而言,YSU方案对近地面气象要素的模拟效果较好。与探空数据对比,得到四种边界层参数化方案模拟的高层温度廓线偏冷,湿度偏高,风速偏低。与气象铁塔观测数据对比,白天四组试验都能够较为准确地反映温度垂直廓线,YSU方案在15 m以上模拟的相对湿度结果最接近观测值。YSU方案模拟的边界层高度最高,非局地方案模拟的边界层高度相对局地方案更高,MYJ方案模拟的边界层高度误差较大。展开更多
基金Supported by the Patrimonio Autónomo Fondo Nacional de Financiamiento para la Ciencia,la Tecnología y la Innovación,Fondo Francisco Joséde Caldas from the Colombian Ministry of Science,Technology,and Innovation (MINCIENCIAS,1115-852-70955)Open Access funding provided by Colombia Consortium。
文摘Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions.However,microphysics parameterization(MP) and planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes remain an important source of uncertainty,affecting rainfall intensity,occurrence,duration,and propagation.Here,we study the sensitivity of rainfall to three MP [Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) Single-Moment 6-class(WSM6),Thompson,and Morrison] and two PBL [the Yonsei University(YSU) and Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino(MYNN)] schemes with a convection-permitting resolution(4 km) over northwestern South America(NWSA).Simulations were performed by using the WRF model and the results were evaluated against soundings,rain gauges,and satellite data,considering the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over diverse regions prone to deep convection in NWSA.MP and PBL schemes largely influenced simulated rainfall,with better results for the less computationally expensive WSM6 MP and YSU PBL schemes.Regarding rain gauges and satellite estimates,simulations with Morrison MP overestimated rainfall,especially westward of the Andes,whereas the MYNN PBL underestimated precipitation in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands.We found that the uncertainty in the rainfall representation is highly dependent on the region,with a higher influence of MP in the Colombian Pacific and PBL in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands.When analyzing rainfall-related processes,the selection of both MP and PBL parameterizations exerted a large influence on the simulated lower tropospheric moisture flux and moisture convergence.PBL schemes significantly influenced the downward shortwave radiation,with MYNN simulating a greater amount of low clouds,which decreased the radiation income.Furthermore,latent heat fluxes were greater for YSU,favoring moist convection and rainfall.MP schemes had a marked impact on vertical velocity.Specifically,Morrison MP showed stronger convection and higher precipitation rates,which is associated with a greater latent heat release due to solid-phase hydrometeor formation.This study provides insights into assessing physical parameterizations in numerical models and suggests key processes for rainfall representation in NWSA.
文摘边界层参数化方案中湍流混合对数值模拟起着重要的作用,湍流混合作用的恰当描述对于温度、湿度、风场以及降水的准确模拟至关重要。我国长江中下游流域人口密集,暴雨灾害频发,很有必要寻找一种适合该地区降水模拟的边界层参数化方案。本文运用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)中尺度数值模式,以QNSE(Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination)边界层参数化方案为基础,将其中湍流混合长度尺度系数调整为可变参数。本文将Noh et al.(2003)提出的Prandtl公式与Janji?提出的修正湍流长度尺度系数的方法相结合,通过考虑非局地项的强迫、地表稳定度与边界层高度对湍流长度尺度系数的影响,强调大气的动力结构特征与热力结构特征对湍流混合的共同影响,从而提高QNSE边界层参数化方案在不同地理环境下的模拟能力。文章通过进行长江中下游地区的典型暴雨试验,将调整参数后的QNSE方案与原方案进行比较,重点分析调整参数后的方案与原方案对关键基本气象要素场、边界层结构特征以及降水的模拟能力,并将模拟结果与观测结果进行对比,结果表明:调整参数后的方案一定程度上改进了地表温度、边界层结构以及降水的模拟效果。进一步研究表明,调整参数后的方案主要通过改变边界层混合缓解水汽混合比、位温模拟方面的误差。
文摘利用中尺度数值天气预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模拟晴天条件下北京边界层的气象场特征,并通过敏感性试验研究四组边界层参数化方案(YSU、ACM2、MYJ和BL)对辐射、地表能量、近地面气象要素以及边界层结构的模拟差异。结果表明:四种边界层参数化方案都可以准确模拟向下短波辐射,对长波辐射的模拟能力相似。YSU方案模拟的感热通量最低,四种参数化方案对地表净辐射通量的模拟差异主要受到短波辐射的影响。MYJ方案模拟的2 m温度效果最好,YSU方案对2 m比湿以及10 m风速的模拟效果最优,综合而言,YSU方案对近地面气象要素的模拟效果较好。与探空数据对比,得到四种边界层参数化方案模拟的高层温度廓线偏冷,湿度偏高,风速偏低。与气象铁塔观测数据对比,白天四组试验都能够较为准确地反映温度垂直廓线,YSU方案在15 m以上模拟的相对湿度结果最接近观测值。YSU方案模拟的边界层高度最高,非局地方案模拟的边界层高度相对局地方案更高,MYJ方案模拟的边界层高度误差较大。
文摘边界层参数化方案的准确性会影响模式对近地面变量和大气低层热动力结构的模拟,对雷暴等强对流天气的预报非常重要,但边界层方案内在的不确定性使得单一预报具有局限性。为了提高对流尺度数值模式中边界层方案的预报效果,基于WRF(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模式,应用随机参数扰动(SPP)方法对Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino(MYNN)边界层方案中重要的3个不确定参数进行扰动,探究了该方法对北京地区一次雷暴过程模拟的影响。同时考虑了对流尺度集合预报系统的特点,调整随机参数扰动方法的3个参量(去相关时间尺度、空间尺度和格点标准差)探究了对流尺度中对MYNN方案参数进行扰动的最优设置。结果显示:随机扰动MYNN边界层方案参数(SPPM)方法可以有效提高近地面变量和700 hPa以下低层变量的离散度,同时提高了短时强降水位置和强度的预报技巧。3个参量的试验说明,去相关时间尺度增大到12 h集合离散度有明显提高;格点标准差增大到0.20,预报技巧也略有提高;去相关空间尺度维持在默认值700 km较好,尺度过小(150 km)预报技巧明显降低。上述结果表明,在对流尺度中SPPM方法可以有效表达边界层参数化方案的不确定性,提高集合预报系统的预报技巧。
