This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indic...This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface wanning, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, daily minimum temperature （Train）, annual hottest day temperature （TXx）, and annual warmest night temperature （TNx） were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days （SU） and tropical nights （TR）. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature （SST）/sea ice extent （SIE）, anthropogenic greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol （AA） forcing, relative to the period 1964- 93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA （through aerosol- radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions）, mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.展开更多
This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the ...This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the SAT over the Northeast Asia experienced a significant warming after 1994 relative to that before 1993.This decadal shift also extends to northern China,and leads to a warmer summer over Northeast China and North China after the mid-1990s.The decadal warming over Northeast Asia is found to concur with the enhancement of South China rainfall around the mid-1990s.On the one hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift only in summer,but not in other seasons.On the other hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift not only in the summer seasonal mean,but also in each month of summer （June,July and August）.Furthermore,the decadal warming is found to result from an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia,which can be interpreted as the response to the increased precipitation over South China,according to previous numerical results.Thus,we conclude that the warming shift of summer Northeast Asian SAT around the mid-1990s was a remote response to the increased precipitation over South China.展开更多
基金supported by the UK– China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) of China, as part of the Newton Fundsupported by the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science–Climate (NCAS– Climate) at the University of Reading
文摘This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface wanning, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, daily minimum temperature （Train）, annual hottest day temperature （TXx）, and annual warmest night temperature （TNx） were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days （SU） and tropical nights （TR）. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature （SST）/sea ice extent （SIE）, anthropogenic greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol （AA） forcing, relative to the period 1964- 93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA （through aerosol- radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions）, mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41105046)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950403)the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090000)
文摘This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the SAT over the Northeast Asia experienced a significant warming after 1994 relative to that before 1993.This decadal shift also extends to northern China,and leads to a warmer summer over Northeast China and North China after the mid-1990s.The decadal warming over Northeast Asia is found to concur with the enhancement of South China rainfall around the mid-1990s.On the one hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift only in summer,but not in other seasons.On the other hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift not only in the summer seasonal mean,but also in each month of summer （June,July and August）.Furthermore,the decadal warming is found to result from an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia,which can be interpreted as the response to the increased precipitation over South China,according to previous numerical results.Thus,we conclude that the warming shift of summer Northeast Asian SAT around the mid-1990s was a remote response to the increased precipitation over South China.
