Assessment of model performance of precipitation extremes over the mid-high latitude areas of Northern Hemisphere:from CMIP5 to CMIP6

This study explores the model performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating precipitation extremes over the mid–high latitudes of Asia,as compared with predecessor models in the previous phase,CMIP5.Results show that the multimodel ensemble median generally outperforms the individual models in simulating the climate means of precipitation extremes.The CMIP6 models possess a relatively higher capability in this respect than the CMIP5 models.However,discrepancies also exist between models and observation,insofar as most of the simulated indices are positively biased to varying degrees.With respect to the temporal performance of indices,the majority are overestimated at most time points,along with large uncertainty.Therefore,the capacity to simulate the interannual variability needs to be further improved.Furthermore,pairwise and multimodel ensemble comparisons were performed for 12 models to evaluate the performance of individual models,revealing that most of the new-version models are better than their predecessors,albeit with some variance in the metrics amongst models and indices.

Dynamic Monitoring and Control Measures of Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smmith) in Low Latitude Plateau Sugarcane Areas

Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E.Smmith) is one of the major migratory pests warned by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).It has been successfully invaded sugarcane and corn in Jinggu,Longchuan,Gengma,Menghai,Yingjiang,Lancang of Yunan Province,China.In view of the great variety of hosts,wide range of habitats and strong migration ability,S.frugiperda has the potential of causing catastrophic threats to sugarcane production.In this paper,we made a systematic introduction to the morphological and biological characteristics of S.frugiperda,analyzed its occurrence situations and occurrence trends in Yunnan of China and other countries around the world,and proposed the control strategies and measures of ecological regulation and control,natural enemies protection and utilization,biological control,pesticide control and adults trapping based on the outbreak characteristics of S.frugiperda and the actual sugarcane production in low latitude plateau areas.

An Interdecadal Change of Summer Atmospheric Circulation over Asian Mid-High Latitudes and Associated Effects

The atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes in Asia has an important influence on regional climate,yet its long-term variation has not been fully explored.The main task of this study is to reveal the interdecadal variation features of summer atmospheric circulation over Asian mid-high latitudes in recent decades.The results show that the atmospheric circulation over mid-high latitudes of Asia has stronger interdecadal fluctuations than that over low latitudes and one significant change center appears near Lake Baikal.It is found that the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal has a significant interdecadal change around 1996 and a deep anomalous anticyclonic circulation has been controlling this region since then,which contributes to the significant increase in the surface temperature near Lake Baikal since 1997 and makes the region a remarkable warming center in Asia in recent 40 years.During 1997-2015,the pattern of less precipitation in the north and more precipitation in the south of east China is closely related to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Lake Baikal.Especially,this anomalous circulation near Lake Baikal has been found to contribute to the obvious interdecadal decrease of the precipitation in northeast China and north China near1997.The sea surface temperature(SST)of northwestern Atlantic is an important influence factor to the interdecadal change in the atmospheric circulation near Lake Baikal around 1996.

Pathways of Influence of the Northern Hemisphere Mid–high Latitudes on East Asian Climate: A Review

This paper reviews recent progress made by Chinese scientists on the pathways of influence of the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes on East Asian climate within the framework of a“coupled oceanic-atmospheric(land-atmospheric or seaice-atmospheric)bridge”and“chain coupled bridge”.Four major categories of pathways are concentrated upon,as follows:Pathway A—from North Atlantic to East Asia;Pathway B—from the North Pacific to East Asia;Pathway C—from the Arctic to East Asia;and Pathway D—the synergistic effects of the mid-high latitudes and tropics.In addition,definitions of the terms“combined effect”,“synergistic effect”and“antagonistic effect”of two or more factors of influence or processes and their criteria are introduced,so as to objectively investigate those effects in future research.

Projected changes in Köppen-Trewartha climate zones under 1.5-4℃global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations

Mid-high latitude Northern Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas to global warming,but relatively less studied previously.We used an ensemble of a regional climate model(RegCM4)projections to assess future changes in surface air temperature,precipitation and Köppen-Trewartha(K-T)climate types in Northern Asia under the 1.5-4℃global warming targets.RegCM4 is driven by five CMIP5 global models over an East Asia domain at a grid spacing of 25 km.Validation of the present day(1986-2005)simulations shows that the ensembles of RegCM4(ensR)and driving GCMs(ensG)reproduce the major characters of the observed temperature,precipitation and K-T climate zones reasonably well.Greater and more realistic spatial detail is found in RegCM4 compared to the driving GCMs.A general warming and overall increases in precipitation are projected over the region,with these changes being more pronounced at higher warming levels.The projected warming by ensR shows different spatial patterns,and is in general lower,compared to ensG in most months of the year,while the percentage increases of precipitation are maximum during the cold months.The future changes in K-T climate zones are characterized by a substantial expansion of Dc(temperature oceanic)and retreat of Ec(sub-arctic continental)over the region,reaching∼20%under the 4℃warming level.The most notable change in climate types in ensR is found over Japan(∼60%),followed by Southern Siberia,Mongolia,and the Korean Peninsula(∼40%).The largest change in the K-T climate types is found when increasing from 2 to 3℃.The results will help to better assess the impacts of climate change and in implementation of appropriate adaptation measures over the region.

自适应正则化滤波化极方法研究

化极是消除磁力异常斜磁化影响的关键步骤,可以在波数域(频率域)和空间域中实现.相比于空间域,在波数域(频率域)进行化极简单且高效,但在低纬度地区存在不稳定性问题,因此明确低纬度地区的范围,研究稳定、实用、精度高的低纬度地区化极方法具有重要意义.本文通过理论研究得出化极因子振幅的最大值为2时,对应的磁化倾角的值为±45°,当磁化倾角在该范围内时,引起化极不稳定.因此采用正则化思想,提出了自适应正则化滤波化极方法(ARF-RTP),该方法利用化极因子振幅构建正则化滤波函数,并以振幅值等于2作为约束计算化极方法的参数值,从而实现自适应化极处理,提高了化极方法的稳定性及实用性.同时结合迭代算法提高了此方法的精度,有效地解决了低纬度地区化极的不稳定性问题.自适应正则化滤波这一思想不但可以解决化极的不稳定性问题,而且可以解决分量转换或者磁化方向转换的不稳定性问题以及类似数据处理中的不稳定性问题,具有广阔的推广应用前景.

自然生草有机覆盖对低纬高原地区雨养桃园生理生态效应的影响

以自然生草有机覆盖区域(秋冬季辅以撒播紫花光叶苕子种子)为试验对象,清耕制区域作为对照,研究自然生草有机覆盖对土壤含水量、土壤容重、土壤温度、桃树春梢生长、桃树品质的影响,结果表明,在低纬度高原地区的雨养桃园,自然生草有机覆盖可以提高土壤含水量、降低土壤容重、降低土壤温度、促进桃树春梢的生长,自然生草有机覆盖区域桃树果实的产量、总糖含量、维生素C含量都显著高于清耕制区域的桃树。

Relationship Between an Abrupt Drought-Flood Transition over Mid-Low Reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the Intraseasonal Oscillation over Mid-High Latitudes of East Asia

NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and Chinese daily gridded precipitation data are used to study the relationship between an aprupt drought-flood transition over the mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO; 30-60 days） in the mid-high latitude meridional circulation of the upper troposphere over East Asia. The abrupt transition from drought to flood occurs in early June. The first two recovered fields of the complex empirical orthogonal function show that northward-propagating westerlies from low latitudes converge with southward-propagating westerlies from high latitudes over the mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in mid late May. The timing of this convergence corresponds to the flood period in early-mid June. The ISO index is significantly and positively correlated with rainfall over the MLRYR. During the dry phase （before the transition）, the upper troposphere over the MLRYR is characterized by cyclonic flow, easterly winds, and convergence. The regional circulation is dominated by a wave train with a cyclone over east of Lake Baikal, an anticyclone over northern China, and a cyclone over the MLRYR. During the wet phase, the situation is reversed. The configuration of the wave train during the dry phase favors the southward propagation of westerly wind disturbances, while the configuration of the wave train during the wet phase favors the development and maintenance of a pumping effect and sustained ascending motions over the MLRYR.

高寒黑土区不同微生物菌剂对马铃薯产量和疮痂病防治效果的影响

为了优化高寒黑土区马铃薯种植管理措施,以刘平1号为试验材料,采用大田试验设计,分析不同微生物菌剂对马铃薯产量、农艺性状以及疮痂病防治效果的影响。结果表明,4号微生物菌剂(T4)产量性状方面表现最好,产量最高,为4014 kg·(666.7 m^(2))^(-1),是CK的1.13倍。且4号微生物菌剂(T4)商品薯率最高,为88%,均显著高于其他处理[3号微生物菌剂(T3)除外],4号微生物菌剂(T4)的平均单株结薯个数高于其余处理;3号微生物菌剂(T3)在马铃薯疮痂病的防治效果上最好,显著高于其余处理,防治效果达到65%,是CK的1.76倍;农艺性状方面,2号微生物菌剂(T2)株高与3号微生物菌剂(T3)茎粗均显著高于CK,分别是CK的1.31倍和1.64倍。综合来看4号微生物菌剂(T4)与3号微生物菌剂(T3)更适用于高寒黑土区马铃薯的高产栽培种植。

不同统计方法对高原和高纬度地区低温极值结果的影响

目的研究不同统计方法下高原和高纬度地区低温极值的特征。方法利用高原和高寒地区国家级地面气象观测站2010~2020年间的小时温度数据,研究不同严酷月基准条件下两地低温工作极值的变化情况。结果3种严酷月基准条件下,高原地区低温严酷月相同,工作极值没有发生变化;高纬度地区低温严酷月发生变化,导致工作极值最大差值达到3.2℃。另外,3种条件下高原地区的低温工作极值均高于高纬度地区。结论装备在典型地区服役过程中的环境工作极值统计应明确严酷月基准条件。

The zonal propagating characteristics of low-frequency oscillation over the Eurasian mid-high latitude in boreal summer

Using 32-yr National Centers for Environment Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data,we investigated zonal propagation and circulation characteristics of the low-frequency circulation for the prevailing period over Eurasian mid-high latitude in boreal summer(May-August) in terms of empirical orthogonal function(EOF),linear regression,and phase analysis and so on.We found that the dominant periods of the low-frequency circulation are 10-30 days and it clearly shows meridional(southward) and zonal(westward) propagation features at the middle troposphere(500 hPa).The average zonal speed of the 10-30 days low-frequency oscillation(LFO) is about 9-10 longitudes per day.Further analysis shows that the southernmost part of the polar vortex in the northern hemisphere exhibits westward clockwise rotation in the eastern hemisphere in boreal summer.Also,the southernmost tips of 5400 and 5500 gpm contours,which indicate the site of the major trough in the eastern hemisphere,obviously move westwards.The southernmost tip of 5500 gpm contour line propagates westwards at the speed of about 9-10 longitudes per day,which is consistent with the mean zonal speed of the westward propagation of the low-frequency circulation.Moreover,the 10-30-day LFO-related cold air also shows west propagation feature with respect to LFO phases.The westward propagation of the LFO is the low-frequency-scale embodiment of the clockwise rotation of polar vortex.The cold air activities closely related to polar vortex or to ridge-trough system activities is the essential circulation of 10-30 days LFO circulation over the Eurasian mid-high latitude in boreal summer.

高纬度地区多功能日光温室设计

高纬度地区的传统日光温室常由于结构设计不合理,冬季生产需要补温,果蔬种植和加工环节分离,运输中容易发生冻害,制约该地区温室的冬季生产。该文基于传统日光温室优点及存在问题,结合高寒地区气候特点,从温室结构优化和功能创新2方面提出新型日光温室设计方案。利用经典温室设计理论,结合生产实际,对采光角度、前屋面弧度、保温性能等进行优化,并对雪荷载、风荷载、屋面活荷载、作物吊挂荷载进行计算,利用结构分析软件midas计算温室结构的受力稳定性,对温室各参数设计的合理性进行验证。优化结果为:总跨度16 m,一层种植部分跨度9 m,生产加工部分跨度7 m,总高度6.5 m,前屋面主采光角37°,土地利用率达到1.7。该设计实现了高纬度地区温室冬季不加温种植果蔬,利用传统温室后墙的遮阴部分,创造地上、地下3层使用空间,显著提高了土地利用率,实现种植、加工、存储多种功能集成,是高纬度地区日光温室的一种创新尝试,可以作为棚室种植园区的核心节点温室。

末次冰消期热带湖光岩玛珥湖古季风变化记录

末次冰消期热带湖光岩玛珥湖沉积物高分辨率的生物硅、总有机碳、总氮和总氢等有机地化指标记录显示了一系列百年至千年尺度的快速变化 ,表明季风环流系统运行的强烈不稳定性。这种不稳定变化与格陵兰冰芯记录的气候事件相比较 ,表现出一定的遥相关 ,但也表现出了末次冰消期初始转暖低纬度区超前高纬度区的显著不同 。

北方不同生态区白菜型冬油菜农艺性状变化分析

为了进一步研究白菜型冬油菜在北方不同生态地区的生长发育特性,明确冬油菜北移的适应区域,扩大冬油菜的种植区划,本研究通过分析18个冬油菜品种在17个不同生态区5 a的农艺性状变化,用适定性参数法、变异系数法分析其稳定性,用隶属函数法综合评价不同品种的农艺性状。结果表明,白菜型冬油菜在北方地区种植,能够安全越冬的地区农艺性状均很优良,且优于胡麻和春油菜等同类型的其他油料作物;品种间、年份间变化不明显,稳定性高。影响冬油菜农艺性状的主要因子是温度,其次是海拔、纬度、越冬率等。北方地区冬季寒冷,极端低温低、低温来临时间早、持续时间长,昼夜温差大,这些气候特点决定了冬油菜农艺性状在不同的生态地区间差异十分明显。与冬油菜原种植北界甘肃省天水市(北纬34°6′)相比,在北纬36°以北的高纬度地区(气温较低)白菜型冬油菜的株高、分枝部位明显降低,分枝数减少;且因花期冻害存在分段结实的现象,突出的表现为主花序长,而主花序角果数少且分布不均匀。但这些地区籽粒灌浆期相对低温,灌浆期较长,且昼夜温差较大,降低了呼吸消耗,因此角粒数和千粒重明显增加。在新疆维吾尔自治区的乌鲁木齐市(北纬43°77′)、塔城市(北纬46°74′)、拜城县(北纬41°82′)等极端寒冷的地区,由于冬春季积雪覆盖,减弱了冬季冻害和春季干旱,反而农艺性状优良,是发展冬油菜的潜在产区。因此,白菜型冬油菜在北方地区种植是可行的,能够安全越冬的地区冬油菜均能正常生长,农艺性状优良,且由于角粒数和千粒重存在潜在优势而使冬油菜具有发展潜力。

基于总梯度模分析的磁源体边界信息提取及找矿意义

低纬度地区磁异常的化极处理极不稳定,甚至出现奇异现象。因此,低纬度地区磁异常的化极处理一直是位场研究的难点。磁异常总梯度模的曲线形态与磁化强度的大小及方向无关,且其极大值位置与磁源边界具有一定的对应性,模型试验表明了该方法在低纬度地区磁异常分析与解释方面的有效性。本文将基于总梯度模的磁异常分析方法应用于老挝爬立山铁矿区的磁测资料处理,由此排除了由化极不稳定导致的虚假磁异常,圈定了矿致异常的分布范围,进一步指导矿区铁矿勘探。已完成的钻孔资料证明,由该方法确定的磁异常区域与区内磁铁矿体分布位置的吻合性较好。由此表明,该方法对低纬度区磁异常分析与解释具有重要的意义。

前期中高纬大气环流异常与我国汛期雨带类型关系的研究

使用国家气候中心提供的1951~2002年北半球500 hPa高度上的月平均格点资料,对前期(1~5月)中高纬大气环流的异常与中国汛期雨带类型分布的关系进行了研究。结果表明,冬季(1~2月)500 hPa环流的时空演变与中国汛期雨带类型分布有明显的相关,春季(3~5月)是转换季节,与雨带类型分布的关系不如冬季密切。尽管不同的雨带类型对应不同的高度距平合成场,但各雨型的高度距平之间只存在三个显著性差异区,且各雨带类型的西风指数显著性差异区与同期高度距平合成场的显著性差异区的经度范围一致。1、2月第一与第二显著性关键区分别位于150°E^170°E和100°W^80°W,第三个显著性关键区出现在80°W^45°W的大西洋上。关键区内西风指数相对平均西风指数较高(低)时,高度场上对应负(正)距平,说明西风指数与中国汛期雨带类型的分布也存在密切关系。因此,前期中高纬西风带大气环流的异常变化与中国汛期降水的关系可为预报我国夏季大范围旱涝的分布提供一些新的线索和信号。

气温场的云南纬度与气温关系分析

针对山区气象站点分布稀少、代表性不强,去除其他地形因子,仅利用气象站观测资料研究复杂山地环境中纬度对气温的影响非常困难的问题,以云南低纬高原区为研究对象,利用历史年平均气温场,结合DEM和纬度栅格数据,使用数学回归建模法,对纬度与气温的关系进行了定量研究。结果表明:1)纬变ΔLati与温变ΔT满足一元线性关系模型:ΔT=-0.942 1ΔLati+0.086 5,纬变平均变化1°,气温平均变化0.94℃,其95%可靠水平的置信区间为[0.84℃,1.04℃];2)同一海拔面上的温度TElev与纬度Lati的二次曲线关系模型为TElev=-0.246 5Lati 2+11.453Lati-117.75;3)纬向直减率的模型为:=11.453-0.493Lati。该文为研究高大山体和深切沟谷对气温场的影响,构建具有物理含义的山地温度场空间模拟模型奠定了基础。

强潮区较高纬度移植红树植物秋茄的生理生态特性

以中国红树林引种最北界的乐清湾西门岛海域为研究地点,选择黄零为1.96、1.66和1.35 m 3个高程断面(每个潮水周期平均淹水时间分别为3.18、3.65、4.07 h),研究了1年生和4年生秋茄的生长、叶片的光合色素和保护酶活性、植株可溶性糖含量、游离氨基酸含量、离子含量等指标的变化。结果表明,当滩涂高程为黄零1.66 m以上时,每个潮水周期平均淹水时间低于3.65 h,1年生和4年生秋茄幼苗均可生长;当滩涂高程为低于黄零1.35 m时,每个潮水周期平均淹水时间高于4.07 h,1年生秋茄幼苗仍能正常生长,而4年生秋茄叶片叶绿素、类胡萝卜素总量、茎叶中的可溶性总糖和游离氨基酸含量、过氧化物酶(POD)活性以及K+/Na+比均显著降低,同时,叶片中的丙二醛(MDA)和茎、叶中Na+含量均快速上升,导致了生长缓慢。总体上说,较大树龄秋茄可生长在高程为黄零1.66 m以上,其原因是植株在每个潮水周期平均淹水时间少于3.65 h时仍能够维持正常的碳氮代谢。

纽荷尔脐橙果实生长与气象要素的相关性

【目的】探讨低纬度高海拔地区纽荷尔脐橙果实生长发育规律及其与气温、降水量和光照等气象因子的相关性,为广西低纬度高海拔地区纽荷尔脐橙高产优质栽培提供依据。【方法】以广西百色市靖西县南坡乡荷朗村种植的纽荷尔脐橙品种为试材,定期测定其果实纵、横径,运用Logistic方程模拟果实体积增长指标与生长时间的关系式,分析果实体积增长与气温、降水量和光照的相关性。【结果】纽荷尔脐橙果实纵、横径在果实整个生长过程中出现3个明显的生长高峰期,呈单S形曲线增长;Logistic拟合模型的相关系数均达极显著差异水平（P〈0.01）。8月下旬至9月上旬是纽荷尔果实生长的最大效能期;4~11月果实逐月净生长量与气温、降水量和光照变化呈显著正相关（P〈0.05）。低纬度高海拔地区纽荷尔脐橙表现果大,单果均重278.7g、果形指数0.96、可溶性固形物含量11.15%、可滴定酸含量3.58 g/100 m L、固酸比3.10∶1、糖酸比2.90∶1。【结论】广西低纬度高海拔地区纽荷尔脐橙果实生长动态变化可运用Logistic方程模型拟合,其果实的生长发育与气温、降水量和光照有密切的相关性。生产中可在纽荷尔脐橙果实迅速膨大时期（8~9月）利用当地有利的气温、降水量和光照等气象条件促进果实更好地生长发育,改善果实品质。

全新世低纬地区古环境演化与北大西洋之间的联系——以湖光岩玛珥湖元素和元素比值记录为例

通过湖光岩玛珥湖沉积物高分辨率的Fe/Mn比值、Rb/Sr比值、Sr元素强度和550℃烧失量的研究,重建了湖光岩地区全新世以来的古环境演化历史,即:早全新世是气候适宜期,气候温暖湿润,中、晚全新世开始气候逐渐干旱化。这种气候演化模式体现了全新世季风演化的全球性。湖光岩玛珥湖沉积物反映的全新世以来的冷暖变化事件与北大西洋浮冰碎屑记录之间既存在联系又存在差异。这说明在全新世背景下,低纬地区的古气候演化与北大西洋存在一定程度的联系。低纬地区全新世古环境演化是低纬过程和高纬作用叠加的结果。