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Time distribution characteristics of regional macroseismic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and its significance to mid-long term prediction
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作者 黄玮琼 吴宣 《Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition)》 CSCD 2000年第4期368-374,共7页
The earthquakes with Ms≥6.0 are often gathered into belts or clusters and are roughly consistent with tectonic structure trends in the Sichuan-Yunnan (Chuan-Dian) region. The middle south part(98°-106°E, 21... The earthquakes with Ms≥6.0 are often gathered into belts or clusters and are roughly consistent with tectonic structure trends in the Sichuan-Yunnan (Chuan-Dian) region. The middle south part(98°-106°E, 21°-34°N) of South-North Seismic Zone can be zoned into seven small areas. There all were strong quakes with M_s≥7.0 historically in each small area. Ten earthquakes with M_s≥7.0 have occurred in this region since 1970 and they appeared in five small areas respectively. The relationships between occurrence-time and cumulative frequencies of strong quakes in these five areas are shown to be an exponential distribution or power function. By examining the inner coincidence it is indicated that these relationships are of definite significance to mid-long term macroseismic prediction of each area. 展开更多
关键词 macroseismic activity time distribution mid-long term prediction examination of inner coincidence
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年径流预测的自适应NNBR-ANN耦合模型 被引量:13
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作者 万星 丁晶 +1 位作者 严秉忠 张晓丽 《四川大学学报(工程科学版)》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第5期5-8,共4页
以基本遗传算法为基础,优化人工神经网络与最近邻耦合模型的基本参数,得到无参数的自适应NNBR-ANN耦合模型。应用此模型对黄河青铜峡年平均流量进行预测,并与单独的人工神经网络模型和最近邻抽样回归模型预测结果进行比较分析。结果表明... 以基本遗传算法为基础,优化人工神经网络与最近邻耦合模型的基本参数,得到无参数的自适应NNBR-ANN耦合模型。应用此模型对黄河青铜峡年平均流量进行预测,并与单独的人工神经网络模型和最近邻抽样回归模型预测结果进行比较分析。结果表明:此方法将模型的基本参数进行优化处理,打破传统的定参方法,用于径流预测更加方便适用,且预测精度更高。 展开更多
关键词 中长期预测 耦合模型 人工神经网络 最近邻抽样回归模型 遗传算法
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若干农田降雨地表径流计算方法述评 被引量:4
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作者 孔莉莉 张展羽 孟佳佳 《水利水电科技进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第2期82-86,共5页
对当前国内外农田降雨地表径流预测方法进行综述,介绍降雨地表径流总量预测中的统计分析法、径流曲线法、人工智能法以及降雨径流过程实时预测中的水文学法、基于水量平衡与能量守恒的动力学法等5种方法的研究现状和发展趋势,并讨论了... 对当前国内外农田降雨地表径流预测方法进行综述,介绍降雨地表径流总量预测中的统计分析法、径流曲线法、人工智能法以及降雨径流过程实时预测中的水文学法、基于水量平衡与能量守恒的动力学法等5种方法的研究现状和发展趋势,并讨论了各自的优缺点。认为现有预测方法在描述农田降雨入渗产流这一复杂机理问题上还存在着严重的精度问题。提出了进一步的研究方向:继续深入开展农田降雨入渗产流机理研究,以期研发一套较高模拟精度的适用于农田降雨地表径流预测的机理性模型,为进一步防控因降雨冲刷作用引起的土壤侵蚀以及农田非点源污染问题提供理论依据。 展开更多
关键词 农田 降雨 地表径流 径流预测方法 综述
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Seismic characteristics near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province and its implication 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Jian(王健) +5 位作者 WU Xuan(吴宣) ZHANG Xiao-dong(张晓东) WANG Su-yun(汪素云) 《Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition)》 CSCD 2004年第4期381-388,共8页
In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution o... In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution of small and moderate earthquakes, 6 seismic dense zones are delineated. Temporal distribution of ML2 earthquakes since 1970 in each seismic dense zone has been analyzed. Based on temporal distribution characteristics and historical earthquake activity, three types of seismicities are proposed. The relationship between seismic types and crustal medium is analyzed. The mechanism of three types is discussed. Finity of strong earthquake recurrence is pro-posed. Seismic hazard in mid-long term and diversity of earthquake disaster in Shanxi seismic belt are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 SEISMICITY local crustal medium mid-long term earthquake prediction Shanxi earthquake strong earthquake recurrence earthquake disaster
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