Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of pr...Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.展开更多
We have examined the water level data from 16 wells in Sichuan province,China,recorded before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake occurred in 2008.We found that the data of 5 among these wells exhibit possible precursory an...We have examined the water level data from 16 wells in Sichuan province,China,recorded before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake occurred in 2008.We found that the data of 5 among these wells exhibit possible precursory anomalies,which are respectively named the Chuan No.08 well in Deyang,Chuan No.ll well in Pujiang,Chuan No.13 well in Luzhou,Chuan No.22 well in Qionglai and Beichuan.In time durations,these anomalies are of long-,intermediate-and short-term signals which are primarily distributed on the northeast(NE)trending Longmenshan fault zone as well as the parallel Huayingshan fault zone.It seems that the variations of the well levels on the Huayingshan fault zone imply compression while those on the Longmenshan fault zone reflect extension.These anomalies occurred first in the areas outside the epicenter region of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake,then migrated to the seismogenic fault zone.And they migrated from southwest to northeast in agreement with the rupture process of the main shock.展开更多
In this paper,the seismogenic structures of the Da Qaidam strong earthquakes are preliminarily discussed by using the regional seismotectonic data and focal mechanism solutions. Analysis is done on the temporal and sp...In this paper,the seismogenic structures of the Da Qaidam strong earthquakes are preliminarily discussed by using the regional seismotectonic data and focal mechanism solutions. Analysis is done on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences in Da Qaidam in combination with the sequence distribution characteristics of the M6. 6 earthquake of 2003 and the five strong earthquakes of about M5. 0 in 2004 in Delingha. At the same time,the regional characteristics of the historical seismic activity are also investigated. Preliminary analysis is done on the influence of the two M8. 0 earthquakes in the past 10 years on this region. Precursory anomalies and their characteristics are discussed in combination with the analysis of the precursor observation data of Qinghai Province.展开更多
The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earth...The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake, but prominent anomalies were observed, such as the long and mid-term trend anomaly characterized by the seismic quiescence of Ms6. 0, MsS. 0 and Ms4.0 earthquakes, and the anomalies in precursor observation of surface water temperature in Yushu and Delingha and electromagnetic measurement in Ping＇an. There were a large number of animal behavior anomalies appearing one week before the earthquake. An M4.7 earthquake occurred 130 minutes before the main shock. In this paper, we studied the dynamic process of the Yushu earthquake preparation using the earthquake focal mechanism solutions on the Bayan Har block boundary since 1996. The results show that the Kalakunlun M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the Mani M7.5 earthquake and the Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake have the same dynamic process. Long and mid-term trend anomalies may be related to the dynamics of evolution of different earthquakes. This paper also discusses the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes, foreshock identification and precursor observation of the Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake.展开更多
Water flow from an artesian well stopped on December 17, 2007 but recovered when the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008. This well is located 90 km south of the epicenter in an extensional tectonic se...Water flow from an artesian well stopped on December 17, 2007 but recovered when the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008. This well is located 90 km south of the epicenter in an extensional tectonic setting, where similar changes of water level and resistivity were observed at two other nearby sites. Our investigation suggests that this phenomenon was not caused by environmental disturbances, such as drought or borehole-drilling activity, but might be a precursor to the earthquake.展开更多
By observing the variation of fault soil gases,we can understand the activity of faults and information on earthquake precursors.Two fault soil gas observation spots were set up at the Xiadian fault east of Beijing an...By observing the variation of fault soil gases,we can understand the activity of faults and information on earthquake precursors.Two fault soil gas observation spots were set up at the Xiadian fault east of Beijing and at the Houhaoyao geothermal area in Huailai(Hebei Province)during November-December 1989.Concentrations of fault soil gases H2,Ar,CO2,CH4,Hg,etc.were observed.Before several moderate-strong earthquakes in 1990,the concentrations of fault soil gases such as H2 and Hg all showed abnormal variations quite significantly.In this paper,we mainly discuss the relation of these fault soil gases to earthquake activity.展开更多
Using GPS observations of horizontal movement from 2001 to 2003 and the cross-fault mobile short-levelling data of 1988～2003, and with the aid of the improved negative dislocation model and the time-varying curve of ...Using GPS observations of horizontal movement from 2001 to 2003 and the cross-fault mobile short-levelling data of 1988～2003, and with the aid of the improved negative dislocation model and the time-varying curve of strain intensity ratio of fault deformation, the regional tectonic deformation background and medium- and short-term precursors related to the preparation of the Minle-Shandan earthquakes of M S6.1 and M S5.8 on October 25, 2003 are investigated. The results reveal that, under the background of the wide-range deformation adjustment, short-term relaxation and recovery caused by the Kunlun Mountains earthquake of M S8.1, the hypocenters of the earthquakes are located on the north edge of the shear stress enhancement zone between the compressional locked segments of block boundary fault, a place which may represent an accelerated strain accumulation. An obvious anomaly of strain intensity ratio appeared in short-levelling measurements crossing over the fault at the Shihuiyaokou site, the closest to the epicenters, 3 months before the occurrence of the earthquakes. In addition, the variation in number of anomalies from 10-odd days to months before the earthquakes in the entire monitoring area and the anomaly concentration and local enhancement relative to near source in the 3 months before the earthquakes are regarded to be precursors to the two events.展开更多
Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such ...Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.展开更多
文摘Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41572238,U1602233)Special Funds for Scientific Research of the Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration(IGCEA1205)Special Projects for Seismological Community(200808079).
文摘We have examined the water level data from 16 wells in Sichuan province,China,recorded before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake occurred in 2008.We found that the data of 5 among these wells exhibit possible precursory anomalies,which are respectively named the Chuan No.08 well in Deyang,Chuan No.ll well in Pujiang,Chuan No.13 well in Luzhou,Chuan No.22 well in Qionglai and Beichuan.In time durations,these anomalies are of long-,intermediate-and short-term signals which are primarily distributed on the northeast(NE)trending Longmenshan fault zone as well as the parallel Huayingshan fault zone.It seems that the variations of the well levels on the Huayingshan fault zone imply compression while those on the Longmenshan fault zone reflect extension.These anomalies occurred first in the areas outside the epicenter region of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake,then migrated to the seismogenic fault zone.And they migrated from southwest to northeast in agreement with the rupture process of the main shock.
基金funded by the project of "Intensive Monitoring and Tracking Studies in the Key Seismic Risk Regions of China in 2011 " of China Earthquake Administration( 2011016301)the‘Comprehensive study of Delingha and Da Qaidam Strong Earthquake Swarms ( 2009A01)of the Earthquake Science Foundation of Qinghai Province,China
文摘In this paper,the seismogenic structures of the Da Qaidam strong earthquakes are preliminarily discussed by using the regional seismotectonic data and focal mechanism solutions. Analysis is done on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences in Da Qaidam in combination with the sequence distribution characteristics of the M6. 6 earthquake of 2003 and the five strong earthquakes of about M5. 0 in 2004 in Delingha. At the same time,the regional characteristics of the historical seismic activity are also investigated. Preliminary analysis is done on the influence of the two M8. 0 earthquakes in the past 10 years on this region. Precursory anomalies and their characteristics are discussed in combination with the analysis of the precursor observation data of Qinghai Province.
基金funded by Earthquake Tendency Tracing of 2011 of Department of Monitoring and Prediction of CEA under the"Earthquake Short and Imminent Prediction Climb Program of2020"(2011016301)
文摘The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake, but prominent anomalies were observed, such as the long and mid-term trend anomaly characterized by the seismic quiescence of Ms6. 0, MsS. 0 and Ms4.0 earthquakes, and the anomalies in precursor observation of surface water temperature in Yushu and Delingha and electromagnetic measurement in Ping＇an. There were a large number of animal behavior anomalies appearing one week before the earthquake. An M4.7 earthquake occurred 130 minutes before the main shock. In this paper, we studied the dynamic process of the Yushu earthquake preparation using the earthquake focal mechanism solutions on the Bayan Har block boundary since 1996. The results show that the Kalakunlun M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the Mani M7.5 earthquake and the Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake have the same dynamic process. Long and mid-term trend anomalies may be related to the dynamics of evolution of different earthquakes. This paper also discusses the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes, foreshock identification and precursor observation of the Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation ofChina(40930637)Basic Science Research Special Item of the Instituteof Geology,China Earthquake Administration(DF-IGCEA-0608210)Special Research Program of China Earthquake Administration(200808079)
文摘Water flow from an artesian well stopped on December 17, 2007 but recovered when the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008. This well is located 90 km south of the epicenter in an extensional tectonic setting, where similar changes of water level and resistivity were observed at two other nearby sites. Our investigation suggests that this phenomenon was not caused by environmental disturbances, such as drought or borehole-drilling activity, but might be a precursor to the earthquake.
基金This project was sponsored by the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation, China
文摘By observing the variation of fault soil gases,we can understand the activity of faults and information on earthquake precursors.Two fault soil gas observation spots were set up at the Xiadian fault east of Beijing and at the Houhaoyao geothermal area in Huailai(Hebei Province)during November-December 1989.Concentrations of fault soil gases H2,Ar,CO2,CH4,Hg,etc.were observed.Before several moderate-strong earthquakes in 1990,the concentrations of fault soil gases such as H2 and Hg all showed abnormal variations quite significantly.In this paper,we mainly discuss the relation of these fault soil gases to earthquake activity.
文摘Using GPS observations of horizontal movement from 2001 to 2003 and the cross-fault mobile short-levelling data of 1988～2003, and with the aid of the improved negative dislocation model and the time-varying curve of strain intensity ratio of fault deformation, the regional tectonic deformation background and medium- and short-term precursors related to the preparation of the Minle-Shandan earthquakes of M S6.1 and M S5.8 on October 25, 2003 are investigated. The results reveal that, under the background of the wide-range deformation adjustment, short-term relaxation and recovery caused by the Kunlun Mountains earthquake of M S8.1, the hypocenters of the earthquakes are located on the north edge of the shear stress enhancement zone between the compressional locked segments of block boundary fault, a place which may represent an accelerated strain accumulation. An obvious anomaly of strain intensity ratio appeared in short-levelling measurements crossing over the fault at the Shihuiyaokou site, the closest to the epicenters, 3 months before the occurrence of the earthquakes. In addition, the variation in number of anomalies from 10-odd days to months before the earthquakes in the entire monitoring area and the anomaly concentration and local enhancement relative to near source in the 3 months before the earthquakes are regarded to be precursors to the two events.
文摘Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.
