Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River （1736-2000）

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736-2000 reconstructed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipitation changes, are explored. The results show that： the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2-4a, quasi-22a and 70-80a. The 2-4a cycle is linked with El Nino events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Nino year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70-80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70-80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong （weak） solar activity is generally correlated to the dry （wet） periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80-100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is becoming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70-80a time scale.

Impact of vegetation restoration on hydrological processes in the middle reaches of the Yellow River,China

Sediment discharge from the Yellow River originates mainly from the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen, i.e., the Helong area. Spatial-temporal variations of the vegetation cover in this area during the 1981-2007 period have been investigated using GIMMS and SPOT VGT NDVI data. We have also analyzed the interannual variations in vegetation cover and changes in annual runoff and sediment discharge, the consequences from precipitation change and the Grain for Green Project （GGP）. The results show that vegetation cover of the Helong area has increased during the 1981-2007 period. The northwestern part the Helong area, where the flat sandy lands are covered by grass, has experienced the largest increase. The region where the vegetation cover has declined is largely found in the southern and southeastern Helong area, which is a gullied hilly area or forested. Although precipitation was relatively low during the 1999-2007 period, the vegetation cover showed a significant increase in the Helong area, due to the implementation of the GGP. During this period, the most significant improvement in the vegetation cover occurred mainly in the gullied hilly areas of the Loess Plateau, such as the drainage basins of the Kuyehe and Tuweihe rivers and the middle and lower reaches of the Wudinghe and Yanhe rivers. A comparison of the average annual maximum NDVI between the earlier （1998-2002） stage and the next five years （2003-2007） of the GGP indicates that the areas with increases of 10% and 20% in NDVI account for 72.5% and 36.4% of the total area, respectively. Interannual variation of annual runoff and sediment discharge shows a declining trend, especially since the 1980s, when the decrease became very obvious. Compared with the 1950-1969 period, the average runoff during the 1980-2007 period was reduced by 34.8 × 10^8 m3 and the sediment discharge by 6.4 ×10^8 t, accounting for 49.4% and 64.9% of that in the 1950-1969 period, respectively. There is a positive correlation between the annual maximum NDVI and annual runoff and sediment discharge. This correlation was reversed since the implementation of the GGP in 1999 and vegetation cover in the He- long area has increased, associated with the decrease in runoff and sediment discharge. Less precipitation has been an important fac- tor driving the decrease in runoff and sediment discharge during 1999 2007. However, restoration and improvement of the vegetation cover may also have played a significant role in accelerating the decrease in annual runoff and sediment discharge by enhancing evapotranspiration and alleviating soil erosion.

Formation Mechanisms and Geomorphic Evolution of the Erlian Mudflow Fans, Eastern Guide Basin of the Upper Reaches of Yellow River

Several argillaceous platforms lie along the Yellow River（YR） of the eastern Guide Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and their compositions, formation processes, and geomorphic evolution remain debated. Using field survey data, sample testing, and high-resolution remote sensing images, the evolution of the Erlian mudflow fans are analyzed. The data show significant differences between fans on either side of the YR. On the right bank, fans are dilute debris flows consisting of sand and gravel. On the left bank, fans are viscosity mudflows consisting of red clay. The composition and formation processes of the left bank platforms indicate a rainfall-induced pluvial landscape. Fan evolution can be divided into two stages： early-stage fans pre-date 16 ka B.P., and formed during the last deglaciation; late-stage fans post-date 8 ka B.P.. Both stages were induced by climate change. The data indicate that during the Last Glacial Maximum, the northeastern Tibetan Plateau experienced a cold and humid climate characterized by high rainfall. From 16–8 ka, the YR cut through the Erlian early mudflow fan, resulting in extensive erosion. Since 8 ka, the river channel has migrated south by at least 1.25 km, and late stage mudflow fan formation has occurred.

Farm Production Growth in the Upper and Middle Parts of the Yellow River Basin,China,During 1980-1999

The impact of inputs on farm production growth was evaluated by analyzing the economic data of the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin, China for the period of 1980-1999. Descriptive statistics were employed to characterize the temporal trends and spatial patterns in farm production and five pertinent inputs of cultivated cropland, irrigation ratio, agricultural labor, machinery power and chemical fertilizer. Stochastic frontier production function was applied to quantify the dependence of the farm production on these inputs. The growth of farm production was decomposed to reflect the contributions by input growths and change in total factor productivity.. The change in total factor productivity was further decomposed into the changes in technology and in technical efficiency. The gross value of farm production in the region of study increased by 1.6 fold during 1980-1999. Among the five selected farm inputs, machinery power and chemical fertilizer increased by 1.8 and 2.8 fold, respectively. The increases in cultivated cropland, irrigated cropland, and agricultural labor were all less than 0.16 fold. The growth in the farm production was primarily contributed by the increase in the total factor productivity during 1980-1985, and by input growths after 1985. More than 80% of the contributions by input growths were attributed to the increased application of fertilizer and machinery. In the change of total factor productivity, the technology change dominated over the technical efficiency change in the study period except in the period of 1985-1990, implying that institution and investment played important roles in farm production growth. There was a decreasing trend in the technical efficiency in the region of study, indicating a potential to increase farm production by improving the technical efficiency in farm activities. Given the limited natural resources in the basin, the results of this study suggested that, for a sustainable growth of farm production in the area, efforts should be directed to technology progress and improvement in technical efficiency in the use of available resources.

Slope-gully erosion relationship in small catchments of the middle reaches of the Yellow River

The slope-gully erosion relationship in small catchments of the middle reaches of the Yellow River has long been a topic concerned by relevant departments in China Slope-gully relationship in typical small catchment is determined determined on the concept of net increase of sediment yield by using analytical method of sediment formation at different positions in the catchment The result shows that sediments in a small catchment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River mainly come from slopes. ms paper indicated that the sediment sources from slopes are roughly 55, 60, 78 and 85 % of the total sediment yield of a small catchment in Yangdaogou. Wangjiagou. Jiuyuangou and Nanxiaohegou, respectively, due to impacts of varying degress from slope runoff.

CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE REACHES OF THE YELLOW RIVER IN CHINA

This paper researches and analyses the critical envirormental situation in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River and compiles the map of critical environmental situation of this area (1:2,000,000). Five types of environmental situation (ES) are divided, namely, conflict ES, critical ES, crisis ES, disastrous ES and accidental ES and 7 groups of main factors are used to identify and classify the critical environmental situation after considering the speciality of this region and the law of guiding factors. They are pollution, endemic disease, soil erosion, drought and water-shortage, forest degeration, wind-erosion and desertification, and soil salinization. Based on mapping and analysis, the paper also concludes the regional distribution law of critical environmental situation of this region and divides it into 8 small districts through combining the critical envirormental situation, regional distribution law and guiding factors. This can provide scientific basis and reference for preserving and renovating the environments with different fragile types and fragile levels.

Sediment Variation Characteristics of Major Rivers in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River

The sediment sequence analysis of Mann-Kendall method based on major rivers of 10 hydrological station in the middle reaches of the Yellow River*[1]*t,.The results show that:The main rivers in the middle reaches of the Yellow River hydrologic station sediment overall showed a trend of decreased significantly.Sediment discharge of all stations except Gao Jiachuan station have reached the maximum in 1956-1969s[2_3].Among various hydrologic station sediment discharge of inter-generational are generally shows the tendency of reducing year by year.Calculate the sediment transport of major river basin of Yellow River,which average is 0.63.

Comparison of River Terraces in the Middle Reach Valleys of the Yellow River and Analysis on the Multi-Gradational Features of Tectonism in the Formation of Terrace Series

Where the Yellow River flows through the Haiyuan-Tongxin arc-form tectonic region on the northeastern side of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau, as many as 10～21 basis and erosion terraces have been produced, among which the biggest altitude above river level is 401m and the formation age of the highest terrace is 1.57 Ma B.P. Based on comparative analysis of the Yellow River terraces located separately in the Mijiashan mountain, the Chemuxia gorge, the Heishanxia gorge and the other river terraces in the vast extent of the northern part of China, it has been found that the tectonic processes resulting in the formation of the terrace series is one of multi-gradational features, i.e., a terrace series can include the various terraces produced by tectonic uplifts of different scopes or scales and different ranks. The Yellow River terrace series in the study region can be divided into three grades. Among them, in the first grade there are 6 terraces which were formed separately at the same time in the vast extent of the northern part of China and represent the number and magnitude of uplift of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau since 1.6 Ma B. P.; in the second grade there are 5 terraces which were separately and simultaneously developed within the Haiyuan-Tianjingshan tectonic region and represent the number and magnitude of uplift of this tectonic region itself since 1.6Ma B.P.; in the third grade there are 10 terraces which developed on the eastern slope of the Mijiashan mountain and represent the number and amplitude of uplift of the Haiyuan tectonic belt itself since 1.6Ma B.P. Comparison of the terrace ages with loess-paleosoil sequence has also showed that the first grade terraces reflecting the vast scope uplifts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau are very comparable with climatic changes and their formation ages all correspond to the interglacial epochs during which paleosoils were formed. This implies that the vast extent tectonic uplifts resulting in river down-cutting are closely related to the warm-humid climatic periods which can also result in river downward erosion after strong dry and cold climatic periods, and they have jointly formed the tectonic-climatic cycles. There exists no unanimous and specific relationship between the formation ages of the second and third grade terraces and climatic changes and it is shown that the formation of those terraces was most mainly controlled by tectonic uplifts of the Tianjingshan block and the Haiyuan belt. The river terraces in the study region, therefore, may belong to 2 kinds of formation cause. One is a tectonic-climatic cyclical terrace produced jointly by vast extent tectonic uplifts and climatic changes, and the terraces of this kind are extensively distributed and can be well compared with each other among regions. Another is a pulse-tectonic cyclical terrace produced by local tectonic uplifts as dominant elements, and their distribution is restricted within an active belt and can not be compared with among regions.

Ecological risk assessment and ecological security pattern optimization in the middle reaches of the Yellow River based on ERI+MCR model

The middle reaches of the Yellow River represent an important area for the protection and development of the Yellow River Basin.Most of the area of the river basin is within the Loess Plateau,which establishes it as a fragile ecological environment.Firstly,using high-resolution data of land use in the watershed from the past 30 years,landscape ecological risk(LER)sample units are defined and an ecological risk index(ERI)model is constructed.Kriging interpolation is used to display the LER spatial patterns,and the temporal and spatial evolution of risk is examined.Secondly,the spatial evolution of land use landscape change(LULC)is analyzed,and the correlation between land use landscape and ecological risk is discussed.Finally,Based on the LER model,a risk-based minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model is established,and a comprehensive protection and management network system for the ecological source-corridor-node system designed.The results suggest that in the past 30 years,LER has a high spatial correlation and areas with extremely high ecological risks are concentrated in northwest and southeast areas of the region,of which the northwest area accounts for the highest proportion.Risk intensity is closely related to the spatial pattern of land use landscape.ERI values of forestland,grasslands,and unused land and farmland are low,medium,and high,respectively.The trend of risk evolution is“overall improvement and partial deterioration”.Man-made construction and exploitation is the most direct reason for the increase of local ecological risks.The high ecological-risk areas in the northwest are dominated by deserts which reduce excessive interference by human activities on the natural landscape.Recommendations are:high-quality farmland should be protected;forestland should be restored and rebuilt;repair and adjust the existing ecosystem to assist in landscape regeneration and reconstruction;utilize the overall planning vision of“mountain,water,forest,field,lake,grass,sand”to design a management project at the basin scale;adhere to problem-oriented and precise policy implementation.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Western Henan Province based on a comparison of conventional and ensemble machine learning

Landslide is a serious natural disaster next only to earthquake and flood,which will cause a great threat to people’s lives and property safety.The traditional research of landslide disaster based on experience-driven or statistical model and its assessment results are subjective,difficult to quantify,and no pertinence.As a new research method for landslide susceptibility assessment,machine learning can greatly improve the landslide susceptibility model’s accuracy by constructing statistical models.Taking Western Henan for example,the study selected 16 landslide influencing factors such as topography,geological environment,hydrological conditions,and human activities,and 11 landslide factors with the most significant influence on the landslide were selected by the recursive feature elimination(RFE)method.Five machine learning methods[Support Vector Machines(SVM),Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA)]were used to construct the spatial distribution model of landslide susceptibility.The models were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and statistical index.After analysis and comparison,the XGBoost model(AUC 0.8759)performed the best and was suitable for dealing with regression problems.The model had a high adaptability to landslide data.According to the landslide susceptibility map of the five models,the overall distribution can be observed.The extremely high and high susceptibility areas are distributed in the Funiu Mountain range in the southwest,the Xiaoshan Mountain range in the west,and the Yellow River Basin in the north.These areas have large terrain fluctuations,complicated geological structural environments and frequent human engineering activities.The extremely high and highly prone areas were 12043.3 km^(2)and 3087.45 km^(2),accounting for 47.61%and 12.20%of the total area of the study area,respectively.Our study reflects the distribution of landslide susceptibility in western Henan Province,which provides a scientific basis for regional disaster warning,prediction,and resource protection.The study has important practical significance for subsequent landslide disaster management.

黄河中下游过渡区河岸植物多样性与土壤因子的关系

[目的]河岸带物种多样性与土壤因子的关系对维持河岸带生态系统的稳定性十分重要,为揭示黄河中下游河岸带物种多样性与土壤因子的关系,进一步为黄河中下游过渡区河岸生态恢复、保护和高质量发展提供一定的参考与理论指导。[方法]采用样方调查法、试验分析法、CCA排序法等方法,以河南黄河中下游过渡区对植物分布和物种多样性与土壤因子的关系进行研究。[结果](1)黄河中下游过渡区河岸有机质、速效钾及有效磷均属于中等变异程度,土壤含水量、全氮变异系数为强变异性,土壤养分空间分布总体呈现中度不均匀的特征。(2)黄河中下游过渡区河岸植物优势度指数(D)与土壤全氮具有显著负相关关系(P<0.05);土壤pH值、速效钾和有效磷对物种丰富度指数(S)的影响不明显;均匀度指数(E)、香农-威纳指数(H)与6个土壤因子之间均没有达到显著水平。(3)红蓼、头状穗莎草、长芒稗、糠稷、醴肠群落的分布受土壤含水量的影响较大;青蒿、酸枣、毛白杨等的分布主要受全氮的影响较大,在全氮含量较高的区域分布较多;葎草和反枝苋受速效钾影响较大;而狗牙根、苍耳、芦苇、狗尾草、春蓼、绿豆等群落受土壤因子的影响较小。[结论]黄河中下游过渡区河岸带土壤含水量、速效钾及全氮是影响植物分布的主要因子,不同植物对土壤条件的需求存在差异,能够直观反映出植被与土壤环境之间的关系。

基于生态需水的黄河中游水平衡分析--以沁河流域为例

为推动黄河流域生态保护及高质量发展,解决地表水资源供需矛盾,亟需开展水平衡分析,建立水平衡模型,为水资源合理分配提供参考依据。作为黄河的重要支流,沁河流域位于黄河中游末端,由于近年来上游调水政策的施行以及流域内生活、生产用水的增加,用水矛盾突出,出现了河道断流、入黄水量偏枯等问题。为保障河流生态环境健康,优化引沁入汾跨流域提水工程实施后的流域水资源供需平衡,以2021年为现状年,在“自然-人工”二元水循环研究理论的指导下,运用水平衡分析理论与方法,以河道内生态需水为保障基础,对沁河流域水资源需求、供水能力与供需平衡进行了分析与讨论。结果表明:(1)沁河流域水资源供给和需求在空间分布上具有分异性,上游山西省境内各河段河道内均能够保障适宜的生态需水量,下游河南省境内,仅可满足最小生态需水量;(2)沁河流域可供给水资源总量为10.04×10^(8)m^(3),河道外生产、生活及生态用水总量为8.89×10^(8)m^(3),剩余河道内水量仅为1.15×10^(8)m^(3),仅可满足河流最小生态需水;(3)推算至2030年,流域内工业生产及生活取用地表水量将达到6.98×10^(8)m^(3),河道外用水总量将达到9.81×10^(8)m^(3),剩余水量无法满足最小生态需水。建议采用降低工业用水量、提高农田灌溉用水利用率、推广使用高效节水技术,进一步增强水资源的有效利用,改善流域生态环境。研究结果可为合理规划沁河流域水资源调度提供参考,也可为黄河中游水平衡分析提供范例。

基于数值模拟的黄河中游典型流域基流分割研究

基流作为河川径流中相对稳定的一种组分,同时也是干旱半干旱地区枯水期径流的主要来源,对流域的水资源优化配置及生态环境的维护有着十分关键的意义。基流分割结果的准确性对于预测流域水文过程以及探究基流变化规律有很大的影响。汾河作为黄河中游重要支流,关系着整个中游地区的经济发展,研究汾河的基流变化能有效表征黄河中游基流的变化机制,因此,选取适宜的分割方法显得尤为重要。基流分割方法众多,数值模拟法凭借其客观性、可重复性和易操作性等特点,且可对长系列冗长繁琐数据进行高效便捷处理,因此在实际应用中受到广泛认可。基于黄河中游汾河静乐水文站2006-2014年日径流资料,采用8种常用的数值模拟方法进行基流分割计算,分析径流年内、年际变化特征,从基流指数的不稳定系数、标准差和变异系数3个角度分析其特征,并分析年基流指数的相关性,比较典型年的基流过程与径流过程,选用Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数、平均相对误差和相关系数这3个指标来进行基流分割结果的有效性检验。结果表明:Chapman滤波法、Chapman-Maxwell滤波法和Eckhardt滤波法是静乐水文站控制流域较为适宜的基流分割方法,计算所得的BFI值分别为0.491、0.495、0.496。研究结果为黄河中游基流分割和基流变化规律等研究提供技术支持,为黄河中游水资源合理利用和更好地建设当地生态环境提供科学依据。

2022年夏季热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常对长江中下游高温异常的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、ERSST v5海表温度资料和大气环流模式,分析了2022年夏季热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常对长江中下游地区高温事件的影响机理及相对贡献。研究表明,此次高温异常事件受La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件的共同影响,长江中下游地区的温度异常为1.52℃、为近40年来最高,温度正异常的极大值位于河南和湖北两省交界处的西侧。热带印度洋和太平洋海温异常引起了长江中下游约0.39℃的增温,对长江中下游地区此次高温异常的贡献为25.66%。La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件可通过增强西太平洋副热带高压,进而有利于维持长江中下游地区的异常下沉运动,为高温事件的发生提供了有利条件。

Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River

The precipitation at 17 stations over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River is reconstructed during the period of 1736―1910, using the snow and rainfall records in the Qing Dynasty, together with the instrumental observation data of precipitation and farmland soil moisture content. The soil physics model related to rainfall infiltration and the surface water bal-ance equation are taken as main reconstruction methodology. The field infiltration experiment by artificial rainfall is conducted to check the reliability. And the precipitation series over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its 4 sub-regions are established, going back to 1736. Analysis of the time series indicates that the abrupt change of precipitation from high to low oc-curs around 1915 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. During the three peri-ods of 1791―1805, 1816―1830 and 1886―1895, the precipitation is markedly higher than the mean of the series. While both the periods of 1916―1945 and 1981―2000 are characterized by less precipitation. Three periodicities of 22―25a, 3.9a and 2.7a are shown in the precipitation fluctuation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. Moreover, the periodical signal of 22―25a becomes weaker and weaker since the abrupt change of 1915 and disappears in the late 1940s, and then the periodical signal of 35―40a appears instead.

黄河流域中游3A级及以上山地景区空间特征及形成机制

为了促进区域经济发展、改善黄河流域生态环境质量,基于景区兴趣点(point of interest,POI)数据,采用核密度估计、标准差椭圆、地理联系率和空间叠加分析等方法,探究黄河流域中游170个3A级及以上(以下简称“3A级以上”)山地景区的空间分布特点及影响因素.结果表明:①黄河流域中游3A级以上山地景区集中分布在晋、陕、豫三省,景区密度大.3A级山地景区高密度区主要分布在豫北、豫南、晋东南;4A级山地景区呈向右旋转90°的“Y”型分布;5A级山地景区主要集中在晋、陕、豫交界处,组团状分布,由东北向西南展布.②自然地理环境方面,3A级以上山地景区主要分布在海拔300~1200 m处,坡度为15°~45°,偏南坡.河流水系、植被指数、空气质量对景区分布的影响效果显著.③社会经济环境方面,交通区位、固定资产投资、旅游收入和文化遗产禀赋是景区发展的重要影响因素.

2022年7-8月黄河中游强降水极端性特征及其形成机制

采用国家和省级气象站降水观测资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析资料和美国国家环境信息中心地形高程数据等,详细分析了2022年7-8月黄河中游持续强降水过程的极端性特征和形成机制。结果表明:(1)研究时段黄河中游共出现11轮强降水过程,具有持续时间长、累计雨量大、降水时间间隔短、强降水落区重叠性高等特点;18个站点累计降水量的标准化距平超过2.5,多次降水过程中最大雨强超过50 mm·h^(-1),表现出显著极端性特征,且8月降水的极端性强于7月;强降水雨带分布和黄河中游地形特征密切相关。(2)7-8月亚洲中高纬度贝湖附近高度场标准化距平达-2.5~-1.5(8月超过-3.5),低槽较常年同期异常偏强;强降水过程中副高西脊点呈西进状态,7月副高脊线和北界南北摆幅较大,副高的每一次南北摆动与来自贝湖的冷空气结合,引发一次次强降水过程;8月副高脊线和北界缓慢南退,摆幅较小,持续性强降水形成于副高边缘。(3)8月水汽输送来自孟加拉湾、南海和东海,整层水汽通量积分标准化距平达2.5以上,PWAT维持40~60 mm,其标准化距平在内蒙古南部和晋陕区间北部均为2.5~3.5,局部3.5以上,水汽条件明显强于7月。(4)黄河中游上空存在上干冷下暖湿的不稳定层结,中低层36°N以北形成锋生,北部整层出现上升运动,垂直速度标准化距平达-2.5~-0.5,异常偏强,与强降水落区对应。(5)8月锋生函数分析表明,黄河中游北部降水发生前及发生时均有锋生,锋生值增减与降水强弱变化趋势一致;变形项对总锋生贡献大,倾斜项对总锋消贡献大;降水强度大的过程,锋生伸展高度较高,强度小的过程锋生高度较低,锋生值相对较小。

Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO

During recent decades, more frequent flood-drought alternations have been seen in China as a result of global climate change and intensive human activities, which have sig- nificant implications on water and food security. To better identify the characteristics of flood-drought alternations, we proposed a modified dry-wet abrupt alternation index （DWAAI） and applied the new method in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin （YRB-ML） to analyze the long-term spatio-temporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alterna- tion （DWAA） events based on the daily precipitation observations at 75 rainfall stations in summer from 1960 to 2015. We found that the DWAA events have been spreading in the study area with higher frequency and intensity since 1960. In particular, the DWAA events mainly occurred in May and June in the northwest of the YRB-ML, including Hanjiang River Basin, the middle reaches of the YRB, north of Dongting Lake and northwest of Poyang Lake. In addition, we also analyzed the impact of El Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO） on DWAA events in the YRB-ML. The results showed that around 41.04% of DWAA events occurred during the declining stages of La Nifia or within the subsequent 8 months after La Nina, which implies that La Nina events could be predictive signals of DWAA events. Besides, significant negative correlations have been found between the modified DWAAI values of all the rainfall stations and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region within the 6 months prior to the DWAA events, particularly for the Poyang Lake watershed and the middle reaches of the YRB. This study has significant implications on the flood and drought control and water resources management in the YRB-ML under the challenge of future climate change.

1951—2020年黄河上中游径流变化特征及归因分析

【目的】河川径流是地表重要的水资源,对其变化特征和原因进行解析,是流域水资源科学管理规划的前提。【方法】本文采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Pettitt突变检验、Budyko弹性系数法等方法分析了黄河上游和中游近70年(1951—2020年)径流变化的趋势和成因。【结果】(1)1951—2020年黄河上游年降水量呈不显著增加趋势(4.04 mm/(10 a),P> 0.05),中游呈不显著减少趋势(4.90 mm/(10 a),P> 0.05);上游、中游年潜在蒸散发均呈不显著增加趋势(1.77、2.23 mm/(10 a),P> 0.05);(2)黄河上游和中游1980—2020年土地利用/覆盖变化明显,主要表现在林草面积的增加,上游、中游年NDVI分别以0.025/(10 a)、0.042/(10 a)的速率显著增加(P <0.01);(3)1951—2020年,上游和中游年径流量分别以3.46、7.46 mm/(10 a)的速率显著减少(P <0.01),并分别在1986年、1990年发生突变;(4)上游和中游径流对降水变化最为敏感,其次是土地利用/覆盖变化、潜在蒸散发变化,且径流对各影响因子的敏感性逐年增强,即气候和土地利用/覆盖的变化将更容易引起径流的变化;(5)土地利用/覆盖变化是导致黄河上游和中游径流减少的主要原因,其次是降水和潜在蒸散,但各影响因子对径流变化的影响性质和程度在上游和中游不同区间存在一定的差异。其中,上游地区降水、潜在蒸散发、土地利用/覆盖变化对径流的影响性质和程度分别为-14.04%、1.30%、112.73%;中游地区分别为21.54%、3.63%、74.83%。【结论】1951—2020年黄河上游和中游径流变化是气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化共同作用的结果,但主要影响因素为人类活动主导的土地利用/覆盖变化,且各因子对径流的影响在不同区间存在一定的差异。本研究结果可为黄河上游和中游不同区间的水资源管理和综合治理提供理论支持。

收缩视角下黄河中游城市碳排放时空格局及其影响因素

城市收缩作为城市化进程中的一种现象,与碳排放之间的关系错综复杂。当前从多维度收缩视角来探究碳排放量驱动因素的研究鲜有。据此,从人口、社会和经济三个维度构建城市收缩评价体系,利用黄河中游四省50个城市2012—2020年面板数据,基于熵值法、夜间灯光指数及地理探测器等方法探究城市收缩对碳排放时空差异的影响。结果表明:①黄河中游资源型城市收缩现象最为严重,呈现“大分散,小聚集”特征。人口收缩占比最多,综合收缩最少。②碳排放总量在研究时段内从2327 Mt增长到3040 Mt,热点区域分布在鄂尔多斯市、乌海市、呼和浩特市、忻州市和朔州市;冷点区域从陕西省和河南省分散分布逐渐向河南省集聚。碳排放总量两极分化现象明显,高值区域数量少,数值大,且逐年增幅大;低值区域数量多,数值低,呈逐年降低趋势。成长型和成熟型资源城市是碳排放量的热点区域,同时城市收缩加剧了碳排放量;衰退型和再生型资源城市已经成为碳排放量的冷点区域,此时的城市收缩对碳排放量抑制作用加强。③城市收缩对于碳排放量的影响是复杂的,经济收缩对碳排放空间分异的解释力最强,人口收缩解释力最小,多数影响因素空间叠加后会产生双因子增强作用,且主导因素由人口和经济收缩转变为社会和经济收缩。可见,黄河中游城市碳排放时空格局及影响因素存在一定差异,因此,在制定双碳行动方案时应综合考虑这些差异,进而可提出有针对性且能适应于地区发展需要的节能减排对策。