Farm Production Growth in the Upper and Middle Parts of the Yellow River Basin,China,During 1980-1999

The impact of inputs on farm production growth was evaluated by analyzing the economic data of the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin, China for the period of 1980-1999. Descriptive statistics were employed to characterize the temporal trends and spatial patterns in farm production and five pertinent inputs of cultivated cropland, irrigation ratio, agricultural labor, machinery power and chemical fertilizer. Stochastic frontier production function was applied to quantify the dependence of the farm production on these inputs. The growth of farm production was decomposed to reflect the contributions by input growths and change in total factor productivity.. The change in total factor productivity was further decomposed into the changes in technology and in technical efficiency. The gross value of farm production in the region of study increased by 1.6 fold during 1980-1999. Among the five selected farm inputs, machinery power and chemical fertilizer increased by 1.8 and 2.8 fold, respectively. The increases in cultivated cropland, irrigated cropland, and agricultural labor were all less than 0.16 fold. The growth in the farm production was primarily contributed by the increase in the total factor productivity during 1980-1985, and by input growths after 1985. More than 80% of the contributions by input growths were attributed to the increased application of fertilizer and machinery. In the change of total factor productivity, the technology change dominated over the technical efficiency change in the study period except in the period of 1985-1990, implying that institution and investment played important roles in farm production growth. There was a decreasing trend in the technical efficiency in the region of study, indicating a potential to increase farm production by improving the technical efficiency in farm activities. Given the limited natural resources in the basin, the results of this study suggested that, for a sustainable growth of farm production in the area, efforts should be directed to technology progress and improvement in technical efficiency in the use of available resources.

Methodology to determine regional water demand for instream flow and its application in the Yellow River Basin

In order to realistically reflect the difference between regional water demand for instream flow and river ecological water demand as well as to resolve the problem that water demand may be counted repeatedly, a concept of regional water demand for minimum instream flow have been developed. The concept was used in the process of determining river functions and calculating ecological water demand for a river. The Yellow River watershed was used to validate the calculation methodology for regional water demand. CaIculation results indicate that there are significant differences in water demands among the different regions. The regional water demand at the downstream of the Yellow River is the largest about 14.893 × 10^9 m^3/a. The regional water demand of upstream, Lanzhou-Hekou section is the smallest about -5.012 × 10^9 m^3/a. The total ecological water demand of the Yellow River Basin is 23.06 × 10^9 m^3/a, about the 39% of surface water resources of the water resources should not exceed 61% in the Yellow River Basin. Yellow River Basin. That means the maximum available surface The regional river ecological water demands at the Lower Section of the Yellow River and Longyangxia-Lanzhou Section exceed the surface water resources produced in its region and need to be supplemented from other regions through the water rational planning of watershed water resources. These results provides technical basis for rational plan of water resources of the Yellow River Basin.

A Securitization-Perspective Analysis of Water Disputes in the Jordan River Basin

Severe water shortage and uneven water distribution plague countries in the Middle East, especially the Jordan River Basin. As a strategic resource with competitive political nature, water resources are closely related to national security, and become the core resource arena that countries along the river basin compete for. This study argues that under the combined effect of the natural factors of water shortage, the geographical factors of uneven distribution of rivers across boundaries, and the subjective factors of water politics (the unfair setting of rules for water allocation), water disputes in the Middle East have become obstacles to regional peace, and the serious uneven distribution of water is the root cause of regional water disputes. Neither the historical water conflicts nor the existing water cooperation framework has solved the problem of balanced water distribution, which makes the people in basin countries directly face the crisis of survival rights and national security, and lays the fuse for the outbreak of regional water disputes and even future water wars. This study proposes the concept and analytical framework of “water securitization” based on securitization theory, and applies it to the Jordan River Basin, to analyze the reasons for the uneven distribution of water resources in the Middle East. The power-dominant state with asymmetric power in the river basin obtains the status of water hegemony by securitizing water, realizing the self-interested distribution of water resources, whichleads to the uneven distribution of water resources, and ultimately leads to the outbreak of conflicts and disputes. Specifically, it mainly adopts three mechanisms of discursive securitization, operational securitization, and institutional securitization. Looking to the future, it is difficult to successfully resolve water disputes in the Middle East in the short term, and a “de-securitization” approach is particularly important in resolving water disputes and easing regional security tension. Only by adopting a multi-field joint strategy can it provide the possibility to effectively resolve water disputes in the Jordan River Basin.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Western Henan Province based on a comparison of conventional and ensemble machine learning

Landslide is a serious natural disaster next only to earthquake and flood,which will cause a great threat to people’s lives and property safety.The traditional research of landslide disaster based on experience-driven or statistical model and its assessment results are subjective,difficult to quantify,and no pertinence.As a new research method for landslide susceptibility assessment,machine learning can greatly improve the landslide susceptibility model’s accuracy by constructing statistical models.Taking Western Henan for example,the study selected 16 landslide influencing factors such as topography,geological environment,hydrological conditions,and human activities,and 11 landslide factors with the most significant influence on the landslide were selected by the recursive feature elimination(RFE)method.Five machine learning methods[Support Vector Machines(SVM),Logistic Regression(LR),Random Forest(RF),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA)]were used to construct the spatial distribution model of landslide susceptibility.The models were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and statistical index.After analysis and comparison,the XGBoost model(AUC 0.8759)performed the best and was suitable for dealing with regression problems.The model had a high adaptability to landslide data.According to the landslide susceptibility map of the five models,the overall distribution can be observed.The extremely high and high susceptibility areas are distributed in the Funiu Mountain range in the southwest,the Xiaoshan Mountain range in the west,and the Yellow River Basin in the north.These areas have large terrain fluctuations,complicated geological structural environments and frequent human engineering activities.The extremely high and highly prone areas were 12043.3 km^(2)and 3087.45 km^(2),accounting for 47.61%and 12.20%of the total area of the study area,respectively.Our study reflects the distribution of landslide susceptibility in western Henan Province,which provides a scientific basis for regional disaster warning,prediction,and resource protection.The study has important practical significance for subsequent landslide disaster management.

黄河流域水资源-生态-城市-产业协同演进研究

为考察黄河流域水资源-生态-城市-产业协同的动态演进及其地区差异和来源,基于2016—2020年黄河流域76个主要地级市数据,采用协同度模型、核密度估计和Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法进行实证测度。结果表明:处于初级、中级和良好协同的城市数量分别为30个、33个和13个。各城市协同度水平呈现上升趋势,但城市间绝对差异在扩大,相对差异在缩小;除呼包鄂榆城市群外,其他六大城市群协同度绝对差异均呈扩大趋势。黄河上游和下游内部差异呈下降趋势,中游内部差异呈上升趋势;上游和中游间差异最大,且呈现进一步扩大趋势,上游和下游间差异逐渐缩小。呼包鄂榆城市群群内差异最小,关中城市群群内差异最大;关中城市群与山东半岛城市群群间差异最小,晋中城市群与山东半岛城市群群间差异最大。未来应进一步加强要素协同、区域协同,发挥各地区动态比较优势,因地制宜推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略深入实施。

黄河流域数字经济发展区域差异及动态演进

数字经济作为一种新经济形态,为社会经济发展带来了创新性的潜能和动力。黄河流域在发展中长期存在区域发展不平衡、产业结构不合理以及创新发展动力不足等问题,探讨和明晰数字经济对黄河流域区域发展的影响,对该区域高质量发展具有现实意义。本文以2011—2020年黄河流域73个地级及以上城市为研究对象,采用熵权法对各城市数字经济发展水平进行测度,在此基础上,采用Kernel密度估计法、Dagum基尼系数等方法对黄河流域数字经济发展的动态演进过程及其区域差异进行研究,并通过空间杜宾模型检验其收敛性。结果表明:在数字经济发展战略和行动的推动下黄河流域数字经济发展水平不断提高,且呈现下、中、上游梯度递减规律。黄河流域数字经济发展总体差异呈缩小的趋势,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源。黄河流域整体以及上、中、下游地区均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛。

基于多区域投入产出的黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放时空格局及结构分解

厘清黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放时空格局及其驱动因素,对于制定公平有效的减排方案,实现区域合作减排的重要目标至关重要。利用多区域投入产出模型深入研究2007—2017年黄河流域9个省区贸易隐含碳排放的构成,以及其在省级和行业层面的转移路径;通过结构分解方法,追踪黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放区域内外的影响因素,揭示其区域内外影响因素的异质性。结果表明:黄河流域整体呈净贸易隐含碳转出区域,主要由中间投入的贸易方式进入其他各省的生产需求时导致。该流域的生产供应和整体需求正向中西部和东北地区转移,而对东南沿海省份的供应和需求正逐渐减少。区域外的最终需求和本地的碳排放强度是影响转出贸易隐含碳的主要因素,区域内的最终需求和区域外的碳排放强度是影响转入贸易隐含碳的主要因素。此外,生产结构和最终需求是影响黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放的关键因素,前者对黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放起抑制作用,后者则主要起驱动作用。

黄河流域9省区经济发展、产业结构与环境污染的关系

研究经济发展、产业结构与环境污染之间的关系对实现黄河流域9省区生态保护和高质量发展有着重要意义。基于环境污染和产业结构升级指数,运用Eviews 10.0软件检验了经济发展和产业结构的关系,探讨了经济发展、产业结构与环境污染三者之间的关系。结论如下:(1)黄河流域9省区环境污染指数整体变化曲线呈现先升后降特征,青海、宁夏、甘肃、河南和山东5省区的环境污染指数变化曲线呈现倒“U”型,四川、内蒙古、陕西和山西4省区的环境污染指数变化曲线呈现倒“N”型;经济发展水平呈上升趋势,区域差异较大;产业结构升级系数呈波动上升趋势,其中除青海和内蒙古外的7省区的产业结构格局由“二三一”转变为“三二一”,青海和内蒙古的产业结构格局稳定在“三二一”。(2)黄河流域9省区经济发展与产业结构关系差异显著。四川、甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古、陕西5省区经济发展促进了产业结构升级,产业结构升级对经济发展影响不显著;山西产业结构升级推动了经济发展,经济发展对产业结构升级影响不显著;河南和山东的经济发展与产业结构升级相互促进,青海的经济发展与产业结构升级相互作用和影响较小。(3)黄河流域9省区经济发展与环境污染的关系曲线均呈倒“N”型,经济发展水平与环境污染的演变趋势不同,随着经济发展,环境污染状况改善得并不明显;青海、宁夏、甘肃、河南和山东5省区产业结构升级抑制了环境污染,四川、内蒙古、陕西和山西4省区的产业结构升级加剧了环境污染。优化调整产业结构、转变经济发展方式和加大治污投入等,有利于实现黄河流域9省区经济社会的可持续发展。

黄河流域制造业高质量发展的空间格局演化、地区差异及收敛性分析

基于2010-2020年黄河流域73个地市面板数据,通过AHP-熵值法测算各地市制造业高质量发展水平,综合运用标准差椭圆、Dagum基尼系数及β收敛模型考察流域内制造业高质量发展的空间格局演化、地区差异及其空间收敛特征.研究结果表明:1)黄河流域制造业高质量发展水平呈波动上升趋势,但存在显著的空间非均衡性,始终保持“下强上弱”的空间分布格局.2)制造业高质量发展的重心向西南方向偏移,并表现为东西向集聚、南北向扩散趋势.3)制造业高质量发展的总体差异略有增加,组间差异是总体差异的主要来源.4)流域整体及上、下游地区支持条件β收敛和绝对β收敛机制,但不同地区的收敛速度和影响因素存在差异.基于实证结果,从提升黄河流域制造业高质量发展水平、缩小地区差距、促进区域差异化发展等方面提出建议.

The wind-water two-phase erosion and sediment-producing processes in the middle Yellow River basin, China

Based on data from the middle Yellow River basin, a wind-water two-phase mechanism for erosion and sediment-producing processes has been found. By using this mechanism, the extremely strong erosion and sediment yield in the study area can be better explained. The operation of wind and water forces is different in different seasons within a year. During winter and spring, strong wind blows large quantities of eolian sand to gullies and river channels, which are temporally stored there. During the next summer, rainstorms cause runoff that contains much fine loessic material and acts as a powerful force to carry the previously prepared coarse material. As a result, hyperconcentrated flows occur, resulting in high-intensity erosion and sediment yield.

黄河流域中游3A级及以上山地景区空间特征及形成机制

为了促进区域经济发展、改善黄河流域生态环境质量,基于景区兴趣点(point of interest,POI)数据,采用核密度估计、标准差椭圆、地理联系率和空间叠加分析等方法,探究黄河流域中游170个3A级及以上(以下简称“3A级以上”)山地景区的空间分布特点及影响因素.结果表明:①黄河流域中游3A级以上山地景区集中分布在晋、陕、豫三省,景区密度大.3A级山地景区高密度区主要分布在豫北、豫南、晋东南;4A级山地景区呈向右旋转90°的“Y”型分布;5A级山地景区主要集中在晋、陕、豫交界处,组团状分布,由东北向西南展布.②自然地理环境方面,3A级以上山地景区主要分布在海拔300~1200 m处,坡度为15°~45°,偏南坡.河流水系、植被指数、空气质量对景区分布的影响效果显著.③社会经济环境方面,交通区位、固定资产投资、旅游收入和文化遗产禀赋是景区发展的重要影响因素.

黄河流域数字经济对区域创新水平的影响研究

基于2012—2021年黄河流域九省的相关统计数据,构建数字经济评价指标体系,采用个体时点双向固定效应模型进行实证分析。研究表明:黄河流域数字经济与区域创新水平的发展均存在不平衡性,各地区之间存在明显的差异;黄河流域数字经济能够显著促进区域创新水平提升;黄河流域数字经济对区域创新水平的影响存在区域异质性,对上游地区的促进作用更为显著。

豫西黄河流域古地名源流及其文化内核

豫西黄河流域既是一个地理概念,也是一个文化范畴。在这一区域,黄河及其支流的自然山水、人文因素,催生了不少古地名。丰厚的历史文化积淀,使这一区域的地名源头,从遥远的上古时期延续到漫长的奴隶社会、封建社会乃至近代。地名作为历史的活化石,记载着这一区域的朝代更迭、历史变迁,记载着风云人物、风物传奇,也同样记载着民间百姓的生活和生存状态。豫西黄河流域古地名丰富的历史文化底蕴,主要生发于该区域文化内核——仰韶文化、殷商文化、秦汉文化、唐宋文化等,也得益于黄河这一华夏文明的摇篮。

黄河源区典型泥炭湿地地下水水位时空变化及流量过程

以黄河源区若尔盖盆地黑河上游的一个典型泥炭湿地小流域为研究对象,采用2018—2022年的地下水水位监测数据、气象数据和无人机航测地形数据,统计分析了泥炭湿地小流域内地下水水位时空变化,并推算了小流域沟道出口的断面水深与流量过程。结果表明:降水是泥炭湿地小流域地下水水位变化的主导因素,地下水水位与降水量变化趋势一致,且随降水与蒸散发之比的增大而上升;小流域中游地下水水位比上游波动更剧烈,且上游地下水水位均值高于中游,沟道中部泥炭湿地的蓄水能力在减退。根据水力学方法和地下水水位监测数据得到了泥炭湿地小流域的沟道断面水深-流量经验关系公式,可用于计算日流量过程线。

黄河流域水稀缺风险评价

基于黄河流域水稀缺特点及其成因,提出了综合考虑水量､水质和生态需水因素的流域水稀缺风险(WSR)评估框架,以此评估了2017年黄河流域90个地级市42个部门的直接水稀缺风险损失(DWSR),并通过构建城市尺度环境拓展多区域投入产出模型(MRIO),评估了城市间贸易驱动的间接水稀缺风险损失(IWSR).结果表明:流域DWSR和IWSR分别约为28941.49亿元和34464.08亿元,贸易导致的间接经济损失大于直接经济损失;各城市DWSR和IWSR整体上呈现一定的空间差异性,但高风险城市具有明显的空间集聚性和重合性,主要集中在流域中下游的山东､河南两省,如潍坊､淄博､郑州等;IWSR转移主要由各省内的城市间贸易产生,省际间的风险转移没有形成明显的热点区域;农林牧渔业､化学工业､石油加工､炼焦和核燃料加工业等部门的DWSR较高,同时也是主要的IWSR出口部门.建议结合识别出的重点城市､关键部门等全面加强WSR管理,协同推进黄河流域节水控水､水质改善和生态用水保障,促进流域水资源节约集约高效利用.

黄河九省(区)水资源绿色效率时空格局与影响因素研究

为探索黄河九省(区)水资源绿色效率,采用SBM-DEA模型和Tobit模型对黄河九省(区)99个地级市水资源绿色效率的时空分布及影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明:1)黄河九省(区)水资源绿色效率整体呈上升趋势,下游的中原城市群和山东半岛城市群水资源绿色效率较高,上游的兰西城市群和宁夏沿黄城市群相对较低;2)黄河九省(区)水资源绿色效率空间集聚分布显著,“高-高”型城市主要集聚在下游经济较发达的省份,水资源绿色效率呈显著的正向空间自相关,并存在集聚现象和溢出效应;3)第一产业和第三产业规模、水资源禀赋和节水水平对水资源绿色效率提升具有显著积极影响,外商直接投资对水资源绿色效率的影响较为消极。

黄河流域区域再生水循环利用的制约因素和对策措施探讨

区域再生水循环利用是破解水资源、水环境和水生态“三水统筹”治理难题,实现污水资源化利用的重要途径.通过调研黄河流域上中下游16个地级市区域再生水循环利用试点实施方案的推进情况,剖析了区域再生水循环利用模式在地方的认知度和融合度,从政策和技术层面梳理了影响黄河流域区域再生水循环利用体系构建的主要制约因素,并提出了相应的对策措施.旨在推动区域再生水循环利用体系在黄河流域更大范围内发挥更加显著的效益,为其他流域再生水利用提供借鉴.政策层面的制约因素表现在地方政府缺少对再生水利用比例的考核机制,人工湿地工程无法与当地再生水利用规划、城镇污水处理厂和管网建设充分衔接融合,再生水不能有效纳入水资源配置规划,对于再生水取用权和收益权亦缺乏明确的管理要求,再生水尚未纳入水权交易市场.再生水利用工程盈利能力较弱,在缺乏经济政策保障的情况下很难形成稳定的市场运营和长效运行机制.技术层面的制约表现在冬季低温条件下,人工湿地工程的处理效果对运维技术的依赖度较高.不少地方的人工湿地工程往往缺乏专业运维队伍,“重建设、轻运维”的现象较为普遍.黄河流域再生水用于农业灌溉的需求量大,潜力有待充分发掘,再生水盐分升高和水质安全利用问题需持续探索和研究.提出的对策措施包括四方面:一是强化地方政府相关职能部门的协作协同,加大再生水利用率在考核中的权重,鼓励基础较好的地区开展再生水水权交易制度建设试点;二是省级层面应加大对区域再生水循环利用工程的政策和资金倾斜,推动工程尽早开工建设和发挥示范效益;三是强化人工湿地用地保障和运维管理;四是鼓励地方政府出台支持再生水用于农业灌溉的政策,推动黄河流域内典型农业县城形成具有示范性的再生水农业安全利用模式.

黄河流域城镇人口和用地变化的关联格局及地域类型

黄河流域城镇人口和城镇用地的关联格局及地域类型对人地系统协调发展具有重要指导意义。基于人口普查和城镇用地栅格数据,运用城镇人口变化指数、城镇用地扩展强度指数、标准差椭圆等方法,揭示2000—2020年黄河流域城镇人口和城镇用地时空分异动态特征,并构建城镇人口和城镇用地协同发展系数,划分城镇化地域类型。结果表明,(1)黄河流域2000—2020年城镇人口增长和城镇用地扩展均呈阶段式变化,城镇人口由中高速增长为主,转为以中低速增长为主,城镇用地面积呈现持续增加的趋势,同一城市不同阶段的城镇扩展强度具有由强变弱的特征;(2)黄河流域2000—2020年城镇人口和城镇用地的标准差椭圆长、短轴的差值不断增大,城镇人口增长和城镇用地扩张在时空格局上吻合性较强;(3)黄河流域城镇化地域类型可以划分为5类,2000—2010年城镇化地域类型呈现自西向东依次分布的趋势,2010—2020年呈现自东南向西北依次分布的格局。黄河流域新型城镇化发展应构筑区域协同发展体系,加快产业结构转型升级,统筹城乡发展,促进黄河流域人地系统可持续发展。

黄河流域中游地下水干旱演变规律及其对植被变化的响应

【目的】明确黄河流域中游地下水干旱时空演变规律。【方法】基于GRACE/GRACE-FO卫星数据和GLDAS数据计算标准化地下水干旱指数SGDI,利用改进的Mann-Kendall趋势检验研究和识别黄河流域中游的地下水干旱时空演变规律,利用Spearman相关分析研究地下水干旱对植被变化的响应。【结果】①黄河流域中游地下水储量异常以-0.027mm/d的速率变化,时空分布极不均匀。②地下水干旱时间上分布不均匀,在2018年之后发生中度甚至重度的地下水干旱,且SGDI的Theil-Sen变化率为-4.10×10^(-4)/d,未来地下水干旱有显著的增加趋势。③地下水干旱空间上分布不均匀,干旱增加趋势面积占比为63.02%,未来干旱恶化趋势增加,出现自西南向东北加剧现象。④植被变化对地下水干旱的驱动作用不显著。【结论】黄河流域中游地下水干旱较严重,地下水干旱对植被变化存在不显著的响应。

黄河中上游区土地使用结构与布局复合优化

黄河中上游地区生态环境脆弱,空间发展问题突出,探索该区域土地使用结构和布局优化配置是实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的有效途径。该研究以黄河中上游地区为研究对象,基于该区域土地使用、社会经济等数据,运用多目标规划(multi-objective programming,MOP)和PLUS模型模拟了惯性发展、生态保护、经济优先和生态-经济均衡4种情景下研究区未来土地格局和变化趋势,并在平衡生态与经济的目标下提出最优土地使用结构和布局方案。结果表明:1)4种情景下,土地使用比例结构存在较大差异;2)均衡情景下的区域土地使用结构和空间布局方案为最优,其综合效益值最高且达到19481.00亿元,与生态保护情景相比其经济效益(12223.88亿元)增长了4.07%,与经济优先情景相比其生态价值(7257.12亿元)增长了2.32%;经济优先情景下综合效益值为20273.96亿元,是4种情景下最高的。研究可为黄河中上游区域未来土地使用规划编制和土地可持续利用规划提供依据。