Using the daily data of temperature from China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1960 to 2005, we have analyzed the relationships between the summertime high/low temperature events in the...Using the daily data of temperature from China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1960 to 2005, we have analyzed the relationships between the summertime high/low temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) and the related circulation anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere. Our results have demonstrated that a significantly increasing trend is observed in daily minimum temperature in the past 50 years. And in some regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite scenarios are observed in circulation anomalies in lower and upper parts of the troposphere in the years when the temperatures are higher than normal, as compared to those in the years when the temperatures are lower than normal in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR). Additionally, the anomalous circulation structure in vertical direction in both the high and lower temperature years are barotropic. It is found that the emergence and maintenance of the aforementioned anomalous circulations are related to three kinds of wave train teleconnection patterns. Further more, influences of the long wave surface radiation on the air temperature are stronger in the nighttime than that in the daytime. While both the maximum and minimum temperatures have negative relationships with the sensible heat flux but positive relationships with the latent heat flux. To some extent, the anomalous dynamic heating (cooling) caused by the vertical thermal advection as well as the diabatic heating (cooling) caused by diabatic processes can explain the formation of the high (low) temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in boreal summer.展开更多
Using the monthly geopotential heights and winds for 700 and 200 hPa for India during July and August, and the weekly M-100 Soviet rocketsonde temperature and wind data for Thumba (8.5 ° N, 76.9 ° E) during ...Using the monthly geopotential heights and winds for 700 and 200 hPa for India during July and August, and the weekly M-100 Soviet rocketsonde temperature and wind data for Thumba (8.5 ° N, 76.9 ° E) during the last week of June and the first week of September for the two contrasting summer monsoon years 1975 (a very strong monsoon year) and 1979 (a very weak monsoon year), a study has been made to examine the mean circulation features of the troposphere over India, and the structures of the temperatures and the winds of the middle atmosphere over Thumba. The study suggested that the axis of the monsoon trough (AMT) at 700 hPa shifted southward in 1975 and northward towards the foothills of the Himalayas in 1979, from its normal position. Superimposed on the low-pressure area (AMT) at 700 hPa, a well-defined divergence was noticed at 200 hPa over the northern India in 1975.The mean temperatures at 25,50 and 60 km (middle atmosphere) over Thumba were cooler in 1975 than in 1979. While a cooling trend in 1975 and warming trend in 1979 were observed at 25 and 50 km, a reversed picture was noticed at 60 km. There was a weak easterly / westerly (weak westerly phase) zonal wind in 1975 and a strong easterly zonal wind in 1979. A phase reversal of the zonal wind was observed at 50 km. A tentative physical mechanism was offered, in terms of upward propagation of the two equatorially trapped planetary waves i.e. the Kelvin and the mixed Rossby-gravity waves, to explain the occurrence of the two spells of strong warmings in the mesosphere in 1975.展开更多
In recent years,with the global climate change,the frequency and duration of high temperature in summer and autumn have increased,causing high temperature heat damage to summer crops such as rice and maize.From the en...In recent years,with the global climate change,the frequency and duration of high temperature in summer and autumn have increased,causing high temperature heat damage to summer crops such as rice and maize.From the end of July to early August is the main period of high temperature occurrence,during which the daily average temperature above 30℃is a high probability event,and even the highest temperature is above 38℃,while this period coincides with the booting-blooming-filling stage of the single-season middle rice in Jianghuai,especially the middle-season indica rice,so it often leads to the degradation of rice spikelets,pollen abortion,difficulty in pollen dispersion,and even difficulty in heading,resulting in a serious decline in the seed setting rate and poor filling of grains,which finally affect the yield and quality.Based on the goal of high-yielding high-quality rice cultivation,this paper proposed targeted technical measures for single-season middle rice from the aspects of planting time sequence optimization,selection of high-temperature-resistant varieties,population construction,fertilizer and water management technology,and how to compensate for the occurrence of unexpected disasters to promote plant growth.This study provides technical support for high-yielding high-quality stress-resistant and disaster-reducing rice cultivation technology.展开更多
Drought is an important disaster factor disturbing the stability of the ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yellow River(YRM).In this study,the spatiotemporal distribution of drought in the YRM from 2000 to 2021 wa...Drought is an important disaster factor disturbing the stability of the ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yellow River(YRM).In this study,the spatiotemporal distribution of drought in the YRM from 2000 to 2021 was quantitatively investigated by constructing the TVPDI(Temperature-VegetationPrecipitation Dryness Index),and its driving mechanism was explored.The results show that:(1)a significant decreasing trend was observed in the regional annual TVPDI of the YRM,while the autumn TVPDI index showed an increasing trend during 2000-2021.(2)Plants are more susceptible to drought during the growing season.(3)Drought in YRM showed significant spatial heterogeneity,and the high gully area in the Loess Plateau and the earth-rocky mountain areas were less affected by drought than other regions.(4)The Structural Equation Model(SEM)indicated that regional soil moisture and vegetation coverage have a direct influence on regional TVPDI variation.This study has explored the regional differences of drought in different seasons and landforms in the YRM,providing a basis for carrying out targeted seasonal ecological management and refining regional environmental governance,as well as a reference for formulating differentiated ecological restoration and water resource allocation strategies according to local conditions.展开更多
Glacier dynamics in the Himalayan midlatitudes,particularly in regions like the Shishapangma,are not yet fully understood,especially the localized topographic and climatic impacts on glacier deformation.This study ana...Glacier dynamics in the Himalayan midlatitudes,particularly in regions like the Shishapangma,are not yet fully understood,especially the localized topographic and climatic impacts on glacier deformation.This study analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier surface deformation in the Shishapangma region using the Small Baseline Subset(SBAS)Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(In SAR)technique.The analysis reveals an average deformation rate of-4.02±17.65 mm/yr across the entire study area,with glacier regions exhibiting significantly higher rates of uplift(16.87±13.20 mm/yr)and subsidence(20.11±14.55 mm/yr)compared to non-glacier areas.It identifies significant surface lowering on the mountain flanks and localized uplift in certain catchments,emphasizing the higher deformation rates in glacial areas compared to non-glacial ones.We found a strong positive correlation between temperature and cumulative deformation(correlation coefficient of 0.63),particularly in glacier areas(0.82).The research highlights the role of temperature as the primary driver of glacier wastage,particularly at lower elevations,with strong correlations found between temperature and cumulative deformation.It also indicates the complex interactions between topographic features,notably,slope gradient,which shows a positive correlation with subsidence rates,especially for slopes below 35°.South-,southwest-,and west-facing slopes exhibit significant uplift,while north-,northeast-,and east-facing slopes predominantly subside.Additionally,we identified transition zones between debris-covered glaciers and clean ice as areas of most intense deformation,with average rates exceeding 30 mm/yr,highlighting these as potential high-risk zones for geohazards.This study comprehensively analyzes the deformation characteristics in both glacier and non-glacier areas in the Shishapangma region,revealing the complex interplay of topographic,climatic,and hydrological factors influencing glacier dynamics.展开更多
Based on the cross-dated tree-ring samples collected from the middle Qilian Moun- tain, a standard ring-width chronology had been developed, which covered the period AD 1000 to 2000. The correlations between the chron...Based on the cross-dated tree-ring samples collected from the middle Qilian Moun- tain, a standard ring-width chronology had been developed, which covered the period AD 1000 to 2000. The correlations between the chronology and climatic records from the nearby meteorological stations indicated that temperature was the dominant climatic factor for tree growth at upper timberline, and the most important climatic factor for the tree growth in the area was the mean temperature from previous December to current April. The temperature variations recovered from the ring-width data showed a cold period during the “Little Ice Age” and the con- tinuous warming during the twentieth century. Comparison between the ring-width chronology and δ18O records from the Dunde ice core in the Qilian Mountain indicated that there was a con- sistent trend in both time series. A significant correlation existed between our ring-width chro- nology and the Northern Hemispheric temperature, suggesting that the climate changes in the Qilian Mountain were not only driven by regional factors, but also responsive to the global cli- mate.展开更多
Based on the temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, and the TOMS Aerosol Index (AI), we analyze the variations in the summertime diurnal temperature range (DTR) a...Based on the temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, and the TOMS Aerosol Index (AI), we analyze the variations in the summertime diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature maxima in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China. The possible relationships between the direct warming effect of the absorbing aerosol and temperature variations are further investigated, although with some uncertainties. It is found that the summertime DTR exhibits a decreasing trend over the most recent 50 years, along with a slight increasing tendency since the 1980s. The trend of the maximum temperature is in agreement with those of the DTR and the absorbing aerosols. To investigate the causes of the large anomalies in the temperature maxima, composite analyses of the circulation anomalies are performed. When anomalous AI and anomalous maximum temperature over the MLRYR have the same sign, an anomalous circulation with a quasi-barotropic structure occurs there. This anomalous circulation is modulated by the Rossby wave energy propagations from the regions northwest of the MLRYR and influences the northwestern Pacific subtropical high over the MLRYR. In combination with aerosols, the anomalous circulation may increase the maximum temperature in this region. Conversely, when the anomalous AI and anomalous maximum temperature in the MLRYR have opposite signs, the anomalous circulation is not equivalently barotropic, which possibly offsets the warming effect of aerosols on the maximum temperature changes in this region. These results are helpful for a better understanding of the DTR changes and the occurrences of temperature extremes in the MLRYR region during boreal summer.展开更多
The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12–2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21st century predicted ...The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12–2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3—to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions, we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Ni?o in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3°C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at midand high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3 data, especially for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and west coast of South America. However, there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic, the weakened meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific, the whole ocean warmed, especially the eastern tropical Pacific, which did not support the permanent El Ni?o suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction, we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions, difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through consideration of both the modeling and data.展开更多
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、ERSST v5海表温度资料和大气环流模式,分析了2022年夏季热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常对长江中下游地区高温事件的影响机理及相对贡献。研究表明,此次高温异常事件受La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件的共同影响,长江...利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、ERSST v5海表温度资料和大气环流模式,分析了2022年夏季热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常对长江中下游地区高温事件的影响机理及相对贡献。研究表明,此次高温异常事件受La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件的共同影响,长江中下游地区的温度异常为1.52℃、为近40年来最高,温度正异常的极大值位于河南和湖北两省交界处的西侧。热带印度洋和太平洋海温异常引起了长江中下游约0.39℃的增温,对长江中下游地区此次高温异常的贡献为25.66%。La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件可通过增强西太平洋副热带高压,进而有利于维持长江中下游地区的异常下沉运动,为高温事件的发生提供了有利条件。展开更多
选择南水北调中线工程沿线邯郸、正定、涿州为代表地区,利用1979-2021年冬季逐日气温数据,分析各代表区气温序列统计频率分布与理论概率分布的拟合情况,提出标准化温度指数(standardized temperature index,STI),并据此建立新的冬季冷...选择南水北调中线工程沿线邯郸、正定、涿州为代表地区,利用1979-2021年冬季逐日气温数据,分析各代表区气温序列统计频率分布与理论概率分布的拟合情况,提出标准化温度指数(standardized temperature index,STI),并据此建立新的冬季冷暖量化评估模型。结果表明:STI方法与国标法的冬季冷暖评估结果基本一致,但在各代表区强冷冬和强暖冬划定上,STI评估得出的年份数量均少于国标法;各代表区以1月份气温计算得出的冷暖等级阈值对应的气温值均明显低于按整个冬季3个月计算结果。工程所在纬度越高,冬季冷暖等级阈值对应的气温值越低;根据STI评估结果,邯郸、正定、涿州发生强冷冬概率分别为7.14%、9.52%和4.76%,发生弱冷冬及以上的概率分别为38.09%、40.48%和38.09%,发生平冬的概率分别为21.43%、28.57%和21.43%,发生弱暖冬及以上的概率分别为40.48%、30.95%和40.48%,发生强暖冬的概率分别为4.76%、7.14%和2.38%。研究成果与基于正态分布的国标法相比,考虑了气温序列的偏态性概率分布特征,对相对冷暖的判别更科学,有推广应用价值。展开更多
基金The key technology R&D program of China, No.2007BAC29B02Project of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, No.KLME060101
文摘Using the daily data of temperature from China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1960 to 2005, we have analyzed the relationships between the summertime high/low temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) and the related circulation anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere. Our results have demonstrated that a significantly increasing trend is observed in daily minimum temperature in the past 50 years. And in some regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite scenarios are observed in circulation anomalies in lower and upper parts of the troposphere in the years when the temperatures are higher than normal, as compared to those in the years when the temperatures are lower than normal in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR). Additionally, the anomalous circulation structure in vertical direction in both the high and lower temperature years are barotropic. It is found that the emergence and maintenance of the aforementioned anomalous circulations are related to three kinds of wave train teleconnection patterns. Further more, influences of the long wave surface radiation on the air temperature are stronger in the nighttime than that in the daytime. While both the maximum and minimum temperatures have negative relationships with the sensible heat flux but positive relationships with the latent heat flux. To some extent, the anomalous dynamic heating (cooling) caused by the vertical thermal advection as well as the diabatic heating (cooling) caused by diabatic processes can explain the formation of the high (low) temperature events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in boreal summer.
文摘Using the monthly geopotential heights and winds for 700 and 200 hPa for India during July and August, and the weekly M-100 Soviet rocketsonde temperature and wind data for Thumba (8.5 ° N, 76.9 ° E) during the last week of June and the first week of September for the two contrasting summer monsoon years 1975 (a very strong monsoon year) and 1979 (a very weak monsoon year), a study has been made to examine the mean circulation features of the troposphere over India, and the structures of the temperatures and the winds of the middle atmosphere over Thumba. The study suggested that the axis of the monsoon trough (AMT) at 700 hPa shifted southward in 1975 and northward towards the foothills of the Himalayas in 1979, from its normal position. Superimposed on the low-pressure area (AMT) at 700 hPa, a well-defined divergence was noticed at 200 hPa over the northern India in 1975.The mean temperatures at 25,50 and 60 km (middle atmosphere) over Thumba were cooler in 1975 than in 1979. While a cooling trend in 1975 and warming trend in 1979 were observed at 25 and 50 km, a reversed picture was noticed at 60 km. There was a weak easterly / westerly (weak westerly phase) zonal wind in 1975 and a strong easterly zonal wind in 1979. A phase reversal of the zonal wind was observed at 50 km. A tentative physical mechanism was offered, in terms of upward propagation of the two equatorially trapped planetary waves i.e. the Kelvin and the mixed Rossby-gravity waves, to explain the occurrence of the two spells of strong warmings in the mesosphere in 1975.
基金Supported by Anhui Provincial Science and Technology Major Project(2021d06050002)Anhui Provincial Agricultural Improved Variety Project(Jiebangguashuai).
文摘In recent years,with the global climate change,the frequency and duration of high temperature in summer and autumn have increased,causing high temperature heat damage to summer crops such as rice and maize.From the end of July to early August is the main period of high temperature occurrence,during which the daily average temperature above 30℃is a high probability event,and even the highest temperature is above 38℃,while this period coincides with the booting-blooming-filling stage of the single-season middle rice in Jianghuai,especially the middle-season indica rice,so it often leads to the degradation of rice spikelets,pollen abortion,difficulty in pollen dispersion,and even difficulty in heading,resulting in a serious decline in the seed setting rate and poor filling of grains,which finally affect the yield and quality.Based on the goal of high-yielding high-quality rice cultivation,this paper proposed targeted technical measures for single-season middle rice from the aspects of planting time sequence optimization,selection of high-temperature-resistant varieties,population construction,fertilizer and water management technology,and how to compensate for the occurrence of unexpected disasters to promote plant growth.This study provides technical support for high-yielding high-quality stress-resistant and disaster-reducing rice cultivation technology.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41601317)"14th Five Year Plan"For Education Sciences Planning of Shanxi Province(Grant No.SZH-230067)Ideological and Political Courses at Shanxi Normal University(2023KCSZ-15)。
文摘Drought is an important disaster factor disturbing the stability of the ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yellow River(YRM).In this study,the spatiotemporal distribution of drought in the YRM from 2000 to 2021 was quantitatively investigated by constructing the TVPDI(Temperature-VegetationPrecipitation Dryness Index),and its driving mechanism was explored.The results show that:(1)a significant decreasing trend was observed in the regional annual TVPDI of the YRM,while the autumn TVPDI index showed an increasing trend during 2000-2021.(2)Plants are more susceptible to drought during the growing season.(3)Drought in YRM showed significant spatial heterogeneity,and the high gully area in the Loess Plateau and the earth-rocky mountain areas were less affected by drought than other regions.(4)The Structural Equation Model(SEM)indicated that regional soil moisture and vegetation coverage have a direct influence on regional TVPDI variation.This study has explored the regional differences of drought in different seasons and landforms in the YRM,providing a basis for carrying out targeted seasonal ecological management and refining regional environmental governance,as well as a reference for formulating differentiated ecological restoration and water resource allocation strategies according to local conditions.
基金funded by The Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(CSTB2023NSCQMSX0990)the Humanities and Social Sciences research project of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(22SKSZ030)the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(Grant No.KJZD-K202400510)。
文摘Glacier dynamics in the Himalayan midlatitudes,particularly in regions like the Shishapangma,are not yet fully understood,especially the localized topographic and climatic impacts on glacier deformation.This study analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier surface deformation in the Shishapangma region using the Small Baseline Subset(SBAS)Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(In SAR)technique.The analysis reveals an average deformation rate of-4.02±17.65 mm/yr across the entire study area,with glacier regions exhibiting significantly higher rates of uplift(16.87±13.20 mm/yr)and subsidence(20.11±14.55 mm/yr)compared to non-glacier areas.It identifies significant surface lowering on the mountain flanks and localized uplift in certain catchments,emphasizing the higher deformation rates in glacial areas compared to non-glacial ones.We found a strong positive correlation between temperature and cumulative deformation(correlation coefficient of 0.63),particularly in glacier areas(0.82).The research highlights the role of temperature as the primary driver of glacier wastage,particularly at lower elevations,with strong correlations found between temperature and cumulative deformation.It also indicates the complex interactions between topographic features,notably,slope gradient,which shows a positive correlation with subsidence rates,especially for slopes below 35°.South-,southwest-,and west-facing slopes exhibit significant uplift,while north-,northeast-,and east-facing slopes predominantly subside.Additionally,we identified transition zones between debris-covered glaciers and clean ice as areas of most intense deformation,with average rates exceeding 30 mm/yr,highlighting these as potential high-risk zones for geohazards.This study comprehensively analyzes the deformation characteristics in both glacier and non-glacier areas in the Shishapangma region,revealing the complex interplay of topographic,climatic,and hydrological factors influencing glacier dynamics.
基金supported by the Major Knowiedge Innovation Project of the Chinese Aademy of Sciences(Gant Nos.KZCX1-1002 and KZCX1-1009)the opening fund of the Key Laboratory of Ice-core and Cold-regions Environment,Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Insti tute,Chinese Academy ofSciences(Grant No.210506)..
文摘Based on the cross-dated tree-ring samples collected from the middle Qilian Moun- tain, a standard ring-width chronology had been developed, which covered the period AD 1000 to 2000. The correlations between the chronology and climatic records from the nearby meteorological stations indicated that temperature was the dominant climatic factor for tree growth at upper timberline, and the most important climatic factor for the tree growth in the area was the mean temperature from previous December to current April. The temperature variations recovered from the ring-width data showed a cold period during the “Little Ice Age” and the con- tinuous warming during the twentieth century. Comparison between the ring-width chronology and δ18O records from the Dunde ice core in the Qilian Mountain indicated that there was a con- sistent trend in both time series. A significant correlation existed between our ring-width chro- nology and the Northern Hemispheric temperature, suggesting that the climate changes in the Qilian Mountain were not only driven by regional factors, but also responsive to the global cli- mate.
基金Supported by the National (Key) Basic ResearchDevelopment(973)Program of China(2011CB403406)+3 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(91544230 and 41105056)Priority Academic Program Development(PAPD)of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutionspartly supported by the State Scholarship Fund(201308320043)supported by the Research Innovation Program for College Graduates of Jiangsu Province(CXLX13-475)
文摘Based on the temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, and the TOMS Aerosol Index (AI), we analyze the variations in the summertime diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature maxima in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China. The possible relationships between the direct warming effect of the absorbing aerosol and temperature variations are further investigated, although with some uncertainties. It is found that the summertime DTR exhibits a decreasing trend over the most recent 50 years, along with a slight increasing tendency since the 1980s. The trend of the maximum temperature is in agreement with those of the DTR and the absorbing aerosols. To investigate the causes of the large anomalies in the temperature maxima, composite analyses of the circulation anomalies are performed. When anomalous AI and anomalous maximum temperature over the MLRYR have the same sign, an anomalous circulation with a quasi-barotropic structure occurs there. This anomalous circulation is modulated by the Rossby wave energy propagations from the regions northwest of the MLRYR and influences the northwestern Pacific subtropical high over the MLRYR. In combination with aerosols, the anomalous circulation may increase the maximum temperature in this region. Conversely, when the anomalous AI and anomalous maximum temperature in the MLRYR have opposite signs, the anomalous circulation is not equivalently barotropic, which possibly offsets the warming effect of aerosols on the maximum temperature changes in this region. These results are helpful for a better understanding of the DTR changes and the occurrences of temperature extremes in the MLRYR region during boreal summer.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421406)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-Q1-02)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (4090205 and 40975050)
文摘The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12–2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3—to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions, we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Ni?o in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3°C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at midand high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3 data, especially for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and west coast of South America. However, there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic, the weakened meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific, the whole ocean warmed, especially the eastern tropical Pacific, which did not support the permanent El Ni?o suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction, we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions, difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through consideration of both the modeling and data.
文摘利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、ERSST v5海表温度资料和大气环流模式,分析了2022年夏季热带印度洋-太平洋海温异常对长江中下游地区高温事件的影响机理及相对贡献。研究表明,此次高温异常事件受La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件的共同影响,长江中下游地区的温度异常为1.52℃、为近40年来最高,温度正异常的极大值位于河南和湖北两省交界处的西侧。热带印度洋和太平洋海温异常引起了长江中下游约0.39℃的增温,对长江中下游地区此次高温异常的贡献为25.66%。La Ni a事件和负位相IOD事件可通过增强西太平洋副热带高压,进而有利于维持长江中下游地区的异常下沉运动,为高温事件的发生提供了有利条件。
文摘选择南水北调中线工程沿线邯郸、正定、涿州为代表地区,利用1979-2021年冬季逐日气温数据,分析各代表区气温序列统计频率分布与理论概率分布的拟合情况,提出标准化温度指数(standardized temperature index,STI),并据此建立新的冬季冷暖量化评估模型。结果表明:STI方法与国标法的冬季冷暖评估结果基本一致,但在各代表区强冷冬和强暖冬划定上,STI评估得出的年份数量均少于国标法;各代表区以1月份气温计算得出的冷暖等级阈值对应的气温值均明显低于按整个冬季3个月计算结果。工程所在纬度越高,冬季冷暖等级阈值对应的气温值越低;根据STI评估结果,邯郸、正定、涿州发生强冷冬概率分别为7.14%、9.52%和4.76%,发生弱冷冬及以上的概率分别为38.09%、40.48%和38.09%,发生平冬的概率分别为21.43%、28.57%和21.43%,发生弱暖冬及以上的概率分别为40.48%、30.95%和40.48%,发生强暖冬的概率分别为4.76%、7.14%和2.38%。研究成果与基于正态分布的国标法相比,考虑了气温序列的偏态性概率分布特征,对相对冷暖的判别更科学,有推广应用价值。