Grey forewarning and prediction for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods

Based on the theory of grey system, established GM （1, 1） grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing （not the volume of water inflowing）. After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in 400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis, it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.

Enhancing mine groundwater system prediction:Full-process simulation of mining-induced spatio-temporal variations in hydraulic conductivities via modularized modeling

The intricate interplay between rock mechanics and fracture-induced fluid flow during resource extrac-tion exerts profound effects on groundwater systems,posing a pivotal challenge for promoting green and safe development in underground engineering.To address this,a novel numerical model with an explicit coupling simulation strategy is presented.This model integrates distinct modules for individual physical mechanisms,ensuring second-order accuracy through shared time integration,thereby overcoming lim-itations in simulating mining-induced strata damage,water flow,and permeability dynamics.A novel mathematical model is incorporated into the mechanical simulation to characterize the abrupt increase in permeability resulting from rock fracture propagation.This increase is quantified by evaluating the plastic damage state of rocks and incorporating a damage coefficient that is intrinsically linked to rock strength.The mechanical model tracks permeability changes due to mining.The flow model simulates aquifer-mine water interactions by calculating hydraulic conductivity and using dynamic zoning,adapt-ing to mining progress.When applied to a case study of a complex mine,this approach significantly improved the accuracy of water inflow rate predictions by 57%.

煤矿水文地质特征和矿井涌水量预测探讨

近年来,煤矿生产安全一直受到矿井涌水的威胁,对煤矿的正常生产造成非常大的影响。基于此,需要切实加强对煤矿水文地质特征的分析,并积极预测矿井涌水量,这是不容忽视的,也是非常重要的。主要探讨了煤矿的水文地质特征,并预测了矿井的涌水量,以便显著提高煤矿开采的安全性和高效性,更好地促进煤矿领域的发展。

长榆河煤业充水因素分析及涌水量预测

矿井涌水量是评价矿井水文地质条件复杂程度的重要指标,同时充水因素的确定对于水害防治措施的实施有着目标导向的作用,因此,分析充水因素和正确预测矿井涌水量对于指导矿井排水设施建设、消除水害威胁、保障煤矿安全生产具有重要意义。对长榆河煤业开采15#煤层、15下#煤层时的充水因素进行了分析,并选用大井法和富水系数比拟法对矿井涌水量进行了预测,最终结合实际,得出了矿井涌水量,为水害防治提供基础数据支撑。