A Simple Method to Derive Minimal Cut Sets for a Non-coherent Fault Tree

Minimal cut sets （or prime implicants： minimal combinations of basic event conditions leading to system failure） are important information for reliability/safety analysis and design. To obtain minimal cut sets for general non-coherent fault trees, including negative basic events or multi-valued basic events, a special procedure such as the consensus rule must be applied to the results obtained by logical operations for coherent fault trees, which will require more steps and time. This paper proposes a simple method for a non-coherent fault tree, whose top event is represented as an AND combination of monotonic sub-trees. A ＂monotonic＂ sub-tree means that it does not have both positive and negative representations for each basic event. It is proven that minimal cut sets can be obtained by a conventional method for coherent fault trees. An illustrative example of a simple event tree analysis shows the detail and characteristics of the proposed method.

Minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm for seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks

In this paper, a new probabilistic analytical approach, the minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm （MCRDA）, is presented to evaluate the seismic reliability of large-scale lifeline systems. Based on the minimal cut searching algorithm, the approach calculates the disjoint minimal cuts one by one using the basic procedure of the recursive decomposition method. At the same time, the process obtains the disjoint minimal paths of the system. In order to improve the computation efficiency, probabilistic inequality is used to calculate a solution that satisfies the prescribed error bound. A series of case studies show that MCRDA converges rapidly when the edges of the systems have low reliabilities. Therefore, the approach can be used to evaluate large-scale lifeline systems subjected to strong seismic wave excitation.

A SIMULATED ANNEALING METHOD FOR FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

This paper presents an approximate algorithm based on simulated annealing to achieve the maximum probability of the minimal cut sets for a fault tree. Near optimal minimal cut sets and important sequence of the basic events are also solved by the method. Computer simulations show that the algorithm performs very well.

Application of causality diagram in system safety analysis

Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.

An improved recursive decomposition algorithm for reliability evaluation of lifeline networks

The seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks has received considerable attention and been widely studied. In this paper, on the basis of an original recursive decomposition algorithm, an improved analytical approach to evaluate the seismic reliability of large lifeline systems is presented. The proposed algorithm takes the shortest path from the source to the sink of a network as decomposition policy. Using the Boolean laws of set operation and the probabilistic operation principal, a recursive decomposition process is constructed in which the disjoint minimal path set and the disjoint minimal cut set are simultaneously enumerated. As the result, a probabilistic inequality can be used to provide results that satisfy a prescribed error bound. During the decomposition process, different from the original recursive decomposition algorithm which only removes edges to simplify the network, the proposed algorithm simplifies the network by merging nodes into sources and removing edges. As a result, the proposed algorithm can obtain simpler networks. Moreover, for a network owning s-independent components in its component set, two network reduction techniques are introduced to speed up the proposed algorithm. A series of case studies, including an actual water distribution network and a large urban gas system, are calculated using the proposed algorithm. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm provides a useful probabilistic analysis method for the seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks.

Exact Reliability Formulas for Linear Consecutive-k-out-of-n: F Systems

A consecutive k out of n: F System, with n linearly arranged i. i. d. components, is examined. This paper gives an exact formula for computing the system's reliability directly. Complexity of this algorithm is an O(n k). Further more, the system's reliability can be computed more quickly and more effectively from this formula than those previously given.

A New Improved Method for Symbolic Reliability Analysis

This paper describes a method for finding the terminal pair reliability expression of communication networks.This method incorporates bit manipulation and Boolean operations for generating the sum of disjointed products(SDP) expression in which each term has 1 to 1 correspondence with respective minimal path(or cut).This method is convenient and efficient. An example illustrates the method.

Numerical Simulation to Reliability Analysis of Fault-Tolerant Repairable System

In the traditional method for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant system,the system structure is described by means of binary decision diagram (BDD) and Markov process,and then the reliability indexes are calculated.However,as the size of system augments,the size of state space will increase exponentially.Additionally,Markov approach requires that the failure and repair time of the components obey an exponential distribution.In this study,by combining dynamic fault tree (DFT) and numerical simulation based on the minimal sequence cut set (MSCS),a new method to evaluate reliability of fault-tolerant system with repairable components is proposed.The method presented does not depend on Markov model,so that it can effectively solve the problem of the state-space combination explosion.Moreover,it is suitable for systems whose failure and repair time obey an arbitrary distribution.Therefore,our method is more flexible than the traditional method.At last,an example is given to verify the method.