Predictive modeling for postoperative delirium in elderly patients with abdominal malignancies using synthetic minority oversampling technique

BACKGROUND Postoperative delirium,particularly prevalent in elderly patients after abdominal cancer surgery,presents significant challenges in clinical management.AIM To develop a synthetic minority oversampling technique(SMOTE)-based model for predicting postoperative delirium in elderly abdominal cancer patients.METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,we analyzed data from 611 elderly patients who underwent abdominal malignant tumor surgery at our hospital between September 2020 and October 2022.The incidence of postoperative delirium was recorded for 7 d post-surgery.Patients were divided into delirium and non-delirium groups based on the occurrence of postoperative delirium or not.A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors and develop a predictive model for postoperative delirium.The SMOTE technique was applied to enhance the model by oversampling the delirium cases.The model’s predictive accuracy was then validated.RESULTS In our study involving 611 elderly patients with abdominal malignant tumors,multivariate logistic regression analysis identified significant risk factors for postoperative delirium.These included the Charlson comorbidity index,American Society of Anesthesiologists classification,history of cerebrovascular disease,surgical duration,perioperative blood transfusion,and postoperative pain score.The incidence rate of postoperative delirium in our study was 22.91%.The original predictive model(P1)exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862.In comparison,the SMOTE-based logistic early warning model(P2),which utilized the SMOTE oversampling algorithm,showed a slightly lower but comparable area under the curve of 0.856,suggesting no significant difference in performance between the two predictive approaches.CONCLUSION This study confirms that the SMOTE-enhanced predictive model for postoperative delirium in elderly abdominal tumor patients shows performance equivalent to that of traditional methods,effectively addressing data imbalance.

Spiritual Forests—A Nature Conservation Model of Ethnic Minority Communities in Central Viet Nam

This paper aims to analyze and evaluate a model of forest conservation and management of ethnic minority (or indigenous) people in central Vietnam, often referred to as the spiritual forest. These forests, called sacred forest or ghost forests by the ethnic minority people in Thua Thien Hue province, have existed for a long time among forest residents. However, they have recently declined, both in quality and quantity, due to various factors, including changes in society, economy, environment, and perception, among other reasons. Based on research conducted in A Luoi district, Thua Thien Hue province with household interviews, group discussions, and field surveys, we find that spiritual forest retains religious and human significance. They are also often among the last remaining natural forests left due to deforestation by human activities. The research results indicate challenges that conservation of spiritual forest may face, while giving recommendations derived from communities for sustainable forest development and conservation in the region.

Research on the Employment View of Acupuncture and Tuina Undergraduates in Minority Border Areas from Students’ Perspective

With the popularization of higher education in China,the employment situation of college students is more complex and severe.This paper adopts the questionnaire method to explore the employment view of acupuncture and tuina undergraduates of Yunnan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine.The employment concept of acupuncture and tuina undergraduates in the minority border areas has changed greatly.After graduation,97.95%of students choose to work in fields related to medicine and acupuncture,prefer positions close to home,and are attracted to high-salary companies,among other factors.Therefore,enhancing the competitive advantages of medical students by guiding their career planning,providing employment selection advice,fostering innovation and entrepreneurship,improving basic skills,and offering graduate entrance examination guidance is crucial for broadening their employment opportunities.

The trend of low fertility and aging in ethnic minority areas and the policy responses in China:An analysis based on data from the latest three censuses

Low fertility and population aging are important factors affecting economic and social development.From 2000 to 2020,the development of low fertility in ethnic minority areas shows three trends of accelerated declining,slow declining and first falling and then rising,which are the results of the balance between the inhibiting effect of controlling birth policy and the rapidly rising birth cost,and the promoting effect of encouraging birth policy on the fertility desire of social members.The development of aging in ethnic minority areas shows two trends of acceleration and deceleration,which are the results of the balance between the promoting effect of controlling birth policy,the outflow of young and middle-aged labor force and the rise of life expectancy,and the inhibiting effect of the encouraging birth policy,the restraint of talent return and talent introduction.Combined with the development degree of low fertility and aging,we can accurately classify and implement policies for different ethnic minority areas.The areas with serious low fertility and population aging problems need economic policies to change the population age structure as soon as possible.The areas with slight low fertility and population aging problems should carry out ideological policies in priority to maintain the benign structure of population age.

Inheritance and Development of Guangxi Minority Musical Instruments and Their Integration With Operas

The traditional musical instrument of minorities converges the evolution of ethnic group culture and history,and ethnic musical instruments are a core component of minority culture.The traditional instruments of Guangxi minorities are rich and varied,and an all-round cultural inheritance and protection mechanism should be used for ethnic musical instruments,so that the performance form of classical musical instruments of minorities can be more widely understood and mastered.Therefore,in this paper,we discuss the specific practice idea of the inheritance and development of classical musical instruments of Guangxi minorities,and facilitate the innovation of development path of ethnic musical instruments by taking the inheritance form of integrating musical instruments with operas.

A Study on the Chess Culture of Ethnic Minority Groups in Gansu Province

As a region inhabited by large populations of ethnic minority groups, Gansu province boasts rich ethnic cultural resources which reflect traditional culture and intangible cultural heritage that had taken shape thousands of years ago. Among these are various ethnic folk chess games. They are time-honored with many types such as the “Fang” chess of the Hui ethnic group, the “Jiu” chess of the Tibetans, the “King and Ministers” chess, the Mongolian chess, the Mongolian military chess, etc. These games embody distinctive ethnic and regional characteristics, as well as the cultural elements of a particular ethnic minority group. It is of great significance, therefore, to study the ethnic chess by collecting, documenting and comparing different types of related chess. The paper explores ways to standardize, protect and promote them scientifically in joint efforts, and draws a conclusion that examining their significance in the present era and the ethnic characteristics is the key to understanding the profound culture behind the chess.

Modelling Key Population Attrition in the HIV and AIDS Programme in Kenya Using Random Survival Forests with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique-Nominal Continuous

HIV and AIDS has continued to be a major public health concern, and hence one of the epidemics that the world resolved to end by 2030 as highlighted in sustainable development goals (SDGs). A colossal amount of effort has been taken to reduce new HIV infections, but there are still a significant number of new infections reported. HIV prevalence is more skewed towards the key population who include female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID). The study design was retrospective and focused on key population enrolled in a comprehensive HIV and AIDS programme by the Kenya Red Cross Society from July 2019 to June 2021. Individuals who were either lost to follow up, defaulted (dropped out, transferred out, or relocated) or died were classified as attrition;while those who were active and alive by the end of the study were classified as retention. The study used density analysis to determine the spatial differences of key population attrition in the 19 targeted counties, and used Kilifi county as an example to map attrition cases in smaller administrative areas (sub-county level). The study used synthetic minority oversampling technique-nominal continuous (SMOTE-NC) to balance the datasets since the cases of attrition were much less than retention. The random survival forests model was then fitted to the balanced dataset. The model correctly identified attrition cases using the predicted ensemble mortality and their survival time using the estimated Kaplan-Meier survival function. The predictive performance of the model was strong and way better than random chance with concordance indices greater than 0.75.

Higher Education Admission Policy and Social Class of Ethnic Minority:The Case of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,China

Gaokao has been considered as the gatekeeper of intergenerational class reproduction in today’s slowing social mobility in China.In order to bolster the fairness of Gaokao,the Policy of Bonus Scores for Ethnic Minority Candidates(PBSEMC)has been issued,whose,however,effectiveness in promoting upward social class has not been adequately empirically explored.The difference-in-differences(DID)analysis based on cross-sectional data,which is distinct from the traditional DID analysis paradigm,was implemented to assess the Reform of PBSEMC in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in 1988.The results showed that PBSEMC had a significant and positive impact on the social classes of ethnic minorities,and gender,residence type and occupation type were also relevant to social class,aligning with the previous literature.The PBSEMC is effective in improving the social classes of ethnic minorities.However,the PBSEMC policy should be made more precise,in order to benefit the candidates who are in genuine need of assistance.

认罪认罚从宽制度的再完善:以轻微犯罪治理为场域

目前,我国已经进入轻微犯罪时代。通过认罪认罚从宽制度治理轻微犯罪是重要的刑事司法途径。然而,轻微犯罪治理与认罪认罚从宽制度之间仍存在一定的不适性,特别是实体与程序的衔接不畅、治理需求与制度供给的不一致等。因此,应当强化轻微犯罪治理与认罪认罚从宽制度之间的契合度与协同性,以轻微犯罪治理的实际需求为导向,按照刑事一体化的理念,不断完善认罪认罚从宽制度及其相关的实施机制。当前,刑法与认罪认罚从宽制度之间的制度性“沟壑”亟待填补。为此,既需要调试现行刑法理论的互斥部分,也要重新审视刑法总则相关规定的适宜性和有效性,进而及时启动必要的实体性立法修正程序。《刑事诉讼法》修改在即,整合性的程序回应也势在必行,独立的认罪认罚从宽协商程序、更加健全的量刑协商机制等均是轻罪治理的主要关切点。

基于多元治理的少数民族档案资源主体协同整合模式研究

少数民族档案资源整合面临资源异构、数量庞大、保存分散的问题。以多元治理理论为基础,通过构建参与主体协同整合模式,解决主体分散割裂问题。对参与多元治理的主体及其特征进行分析,归纳了政府部门主导模式、文化机构主导模式、社会组织主导模式、社会公众参与模式四种少数民族档案资源主体整合模式,在深入分析和比较四者之间的相似性和差异性后,构建了动态性、场景化的少数民族档案资源多元主体协同整合模式。

云南省特有少数民族具备的膳食营养知识素养分析

目的分析2018年1月至2020年8月云南省基诺族、景颇族、德昂族、阿昌族、基诺族、布朗族和普米族6个特有少数民族具备的膳食营养知识素养情况及影响因素。方法采用多阶段分层整群抽样在云南省少数民族聚居地,对3145人年龄≥18岁少数民族进行膳食营养知识知晓情况调查,统计分析运用SAS9.4进行χ^(2)检验和非条件Logistic回归分析。结果3145人≥18岁云南省特有少数民族17道膳食营养知识得分中位数为8.7分。具备膳食营养知识素养的比例为8.3%,不同民族具备膳食营养知识素养比例存在统计学差异(χ^(2)=149.974,P<0.0001),布朗族最低仅为0.2%。经非条件Logistic回归分析显示,初中或高中、大专及以上文化程度者更具备膳食营养知识素养(OR=1.992、OR=3.073,P<0.05,参照组为小学及以下文化)。基诺族、德昂族、布朗族、普米族更不具备膳食营养知识素养(OR=0.105、OR=0.366、OR=0.010、OR=0.341,P<0.05,参照组为阿昌族)。结论云南省6个特有少数民族≥18岁人群具备膳食营养知识素养低于人群平均水平,建议加强普及膳食营养知识,特别是应该加强低文化程度特有少数民族的膳食营养知识宣传教育,从而提高膳食营养知识素养。

从消极惩罪到积极治理:中国特色轻罪治理体系的反思与完善

当今中国社会的犯罪现象正在经历从重罪到轻罪的重大变化,我国轻罪治理体系也应与时俱进地进行完善。这要求我们取轻罪之长,避轻罪之短。首先,要明确轻罪的定义,可以法定刑3年有期徒刑为上限、以处带有保安处分性质的限制或剥夺人身自由措施为下限,这一轻罪概念既契合我国刑事立法和司法的现实,也是面向未来轻罪立法的一种前瞻性考虑。然后,对轻罪扩张现象进行反思,厘清轻罪扩张带来的正面功能和负面效应,指明其具有回应民意、完善立法、规范行为的优势,也揭示其简化司法、异化刑罚、附随后果过剩的缺陷。在此基础上,对我国轻罪治理体系进行完善,在实体层面依据《刑法》第13条的但书规定和第37条的定罪免刑规定,建立多元的轻罪处遇模式;在程序法层面贯彻“三分原则”;在附随后果上严格限制适用主体、对象和内容;在前科消灭上逐步建立犯罪记录封存、注销和复权制度。这样多措并举,推动我国轻罪治理体系从消极惩罪向积极治理的现代化转型。

少数民族老年人认知功能障碍与居住地改变相关性的研究进展

我国少数民族与汉族人群的认知功能障碍患病率存在差异。老年人居住地改变可能造成其认知功能的改变,其原因有社会人文环境改变、地理环境改变、心理应激等方面。本文对相关研究进展进行综述,以便预防和减缓少数民族人群认知功能障碍的发生发展。

吉林省少数民族地区畜牧业发展助力乡村产业振兴研究——以伊通满族自治县为例

随着乡村振兴政策的落实,各地区开始发展产业以助推乡村发展。产业发展为乡村振兴提供了坚实的物质动力,如果产业发展势弱,那么乡村振兴如同无本之木,也就无法从根本上实现乡村振兴目标,而且影响实现脱贫攻坚的进程。目前,吉林省伊通满族自治县以乡村振兴为助推器发展本地特色产业,不仅能够带动农民增收致富,也有助于营造更美丽宜居的乡村环境。这些举措将有利于推动乡村经济的稳步提升,促使更多的人脱贫致富,实现乡村产业振兴。

困境与破解:强制报告制度的法社会学分析——以家庭暴力侵害未成年人案件为视角

法律与社会发展不可分离。未成年人保护不仅是一个法律问题,更是一个社会问题。法律虽为社会控制的高级手段,亦不可脱离社会独自发挥作用,需与道德规范、社会价值观、文化等其他社会控制手段互为表里。从法社会学的研究视角出发,家庭暴力侵害未成年人案件强制报告制度具有多种实践价值,但该制度在一定程度上冲击了部分报告义务主体和社会公众的固有思想观念,致使部分报告义务主体履行强制报告义务缺乏精神动力,阻碍了该制度在实践中的顺利运行。应从回应社会发展需求、关注特殊群体权益保障、加强社会控制、培育和塑造现代公民等方面,借助其他社会控制手段化解思想观念冲突,破解强制报告制度的适用困境,进一步提高强制报告制度在家庭暴力侵害未成年人案件中的适用实效。

西准噶尔构造带包古图地层小区上泥盆统红山梁组的建立及地质意义

西准噶尔构造带包古图地层小区白碱滩北红山梁剖面上新发现一套晚泥盆世红色“硅质岩、粉砂质硅质岩、凝灰质硅质岩”海相沉积组合,与上覆包古图组深灰色—灰黑色含碳粉砂岩呈整合接触。经区域对比确认,该套地层显著有别于研究区乃至整个西准噶尔构造带地层分区已发现的全部上泥盆统各组岩石地层,符合“野外可识别、界面可区别、区域可对比、图面可表达”的原则,据此新建红山梁组。本次于红山梁组枕状玄武岩、玄武岩、安山岩中分别获得365.9±5.0Ma、370.6±7.4Ma和374.6±3.6Ma的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄,佐证其时代为晚泥盆世。红山梁组与包古图组连续沉积之确认,消除了包古图组老于希贝库拉斯组这一存疑,建立了完整的下石统地层序列,新增了包古图地层小区泥盆纪的沉积记录,为区域沉积与构造演化研究提供了新资料。

数字化转型、信息透明度与权益资本成本

本研究基于2009年至2021年中国上市公司数据,实证分析数字化转型对企业权益资本成本的影响。通过实证分析研究发现,企业数字化转型能够显著降低权益资本成本。进一步分析发现,信息透明度在企业数字化转型与权益资本成本之间起部分中介效应。通过研究数字化转型与权益资本成本的作用机制,为企业治理与合理配置资源提供借鉴。

回族及维吾尔族圆头精子症患者的基因诊断、精子超微结构观察和辅助生殖结局分析

目的探讨2例少数民族(P1回族、P2维吾尔族)圆头精子症患者的临床表型、精子特点、遗传学病因以及辅助生殖结局。方法分析2例少数民族圆头精子症患者的临床资料和各种精液检查参数,观察精子超微结构,并利用全外显子检测技术和qPCR检测分析患者的遗传学病因,采用卵胞质内单精子注射联合卵母细胞激活技术(ICSI+AOA)进行辅助生殖治疗,并观察其助孕结局。结果2例患者均存在DPY19L2基因109681 bp纯合缺失,其中P2患者的DPY19L2基因缺失来源于近亲结婚的父母。P1患者精子活力低下,精子DNA碎片率高,精子形态为100%圆头精子,电镜下发现精子顶体缺失,同时存在质膜、线粒体和微管等超微结构缺陷;P2患者精子活力及精子DNA碎片率均正常,精子形态为100%圆头精子,电镜下观察发现精子主要缺陷为头部小而圆伴随顶体缺失,质膜、线粒体和微管等细胞器结构损伤与超微结构缺陷少见。2例患者夫妇均接受ICSI+AOA助孕,ICSI受精率P1患者夫妇为62.5%,P2患者夫妇为75%,均成功获得临床妊娠。结论DPY19L2基因异常在不同民族背景的圆头精子症患者中都是主要的致病遗传学原因。圆头精子可同时存在质膜、线粒体和微管等细胞器结构损伤与超微结构缺陷。ICSI+AOA是圆头精子症患者的有效辅助生殖治疗。

新媒体背景下少数民族动画符码赋能铸牢中华民族共同体意识

少数民族动画是在艺术想象下创作实践而成的文化精神承载物,是中华民族文化符号的具体呈现,少数民族动画对中华民族共同体意识“日常生活层面”的传播有着重要作用。新媒体信息传播方式对文化符码的传播和输出产生了文化多元化、对象多样化、传播复杂化等影响。少数民族动画文化符码作为铸牢中华民族共同体意识的重要媒介和载体,从1949年-2019年经历了族群认同、自我认同、国家认同的发展历程,在新媒体背景下少数民族动画呈现出与大众文化消费市场距离较远、“碎片化”信息传播需要整合、民族文化差异性与共享性需要平衡、动画观众个性化需求需要协调等特点。研究认为,可以从审美层面契合少数民族动画符码的当代向度,使内容与形式符合现代人的审美需求;从观念与价值层面引导少数民族动画符码的价值构建,以文艺形式承载时代精神,价值引导符合时代发展的需求;从情感与记忆层面满足少数民族动画的与时俱进,传递共同民族心理与共同价值观念,拓展少数民族动画媒体宣传力度,增强少数民族动画赋能铸牢中华民族共同体意识的能力。

未成年人检察公益诉讼受案范围的“等”外探索

概述了未成年人检察公益诉讼立法现状及受案范围狭窄、法律规定不明确的问题;分析了受案范围立法和其扩张的现实需求之间的矛盾;总结实践探索的经验;阐释受案范围扩张的必要性。指明受案范围扩张要抓住公共利益的“公共”本质、以未成年人利益受侵害为底线、充分发挥检察机关工作优势。采用“列举+概括”的方式,列举了重点领域解决受案范围的实践难题。