An Analysis on the Spatial Distribution of Population Aging Pressure in China

Based on comprehensive analysis of the impact of population aging to social and economic development,a comprehensive evaluation system including 18 indexes was constructed for evaluating regional pressure of population aging on social and economic development.Using statistics data of 31 regions in China from 2004 to 2008,the pressure of population aging on social and economic development,was comprehensively evaluated by using the factor analysis method.The spatial distribution of population aging in China was also analyzed.This study is to provide scientific basis for government to make strategies of coping with population aging according to regional pressure of population aging on social and economic development in China.

Simulation Analysis on Spatial Pattern of Urban Population in Shenyang City,China in Late 20th Century

The spatial distribution of urban population can reflect significantly urban functions and development status. Shenyang, as a typical old industrial city in China, has experienced considerable changes in spatial distribution of population in the process of urban transformation, resulting in the change of urban spatial structure. Based on the sub-district data of Chinese national population censuses in 1982, 1990 and 2000, this study simulates the evolution pattern of spatial distribution of urban population in Shenyang City. Using statistical method and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), we found that the population distribution, on the whole, has presented a balanced and decentralized trend since the 1980s, which characterizes with Chinese suburbanization. Furthermore, based on the investigation of the pattern of population distribution, it is concluded that the negative exponential model fitted the distribution best, and population concentration in the inner suburb kept increasing gradually, meanwhile, the spatial structure of population distribution has presented a polycentric feature since the 1980s. The parameters of the model show that population in the urban core concentrate significantly all the time. The increase of population in the inner suburb influences the population distribution pattern more and more importantly, but the concentration intensity of population cores in inner suburb is still low.

Population structure and spatial pattern analysis of Quercus aquifolioides on Sejila Mountain,Tibet,China

Understanding population structure provides basic ecological data related to species and ecosystems.Our objective was to understand the mechanisms involved in the maintenance of Quercus aquifolioides populations.Using a 1 ha permanent sample plot data for Q.aquifolioides on Sejila Mountain,Tibet Autonomous Region(Tibet),China,we analyzed the population structure of Q.aquifolioides by combining data for diameter class,static life table and survival curve.Simultaneously,the spatial distribution of Q.aquifolioides was studied using Ripley’s L Function in point pattern analysis.The results showed:(1) Individuals in Q.aquifolioides populations were mainly aggregated in the youngest age classes,that accounted for94.3% of the individuals; the older age classes had much smaller populations.Although the youngest age classes(ClassesⅠ and Ⅱ) had fewer individuals than Class Ⅲ,the total number of individuals in classes Ⅰ and Ⅱ was also greater than in classes Ⅳ to Ⅸ.In terms of tree height,fewsaplings,more medium-sized saplings and few large-sized trees were found.The diameter class structure of Q.aquifolioides populations formed an atypical ‘pyramid’type; the population was expanding,but growth was limited,tending toward a stable population.(2) Mortality of Q.aquifolioides increased continuously with age; life expectancy decreased over time,and the survivorship curve was close to a Deevey I curve.(3) The spatial distribution pattern of Q.aquifolioides varied widely across different developmental stages.Saplings and medium-sized tree showed aggregated distributions at the scales of 0–33 m and 0–29 m,respectively.The aggregation intensities of saplings and medium-sized trees at small scales were significantly stronger than that of large-sized trees.However,large-sized trees showed a random distribution at most scales.(4) No correlation was observed among saplings,medium-and large-sized trees at small scales,while a significant and negative association was observed as the scale increased.Strong competition was found among saplings,medium-and large-sized trees,while no significant association was observed between medium-and largesized trees at all scales.Biotic interactions and local ecological characteristics influenced the spatial distribution pattern of Q.aquifolioides populations most strongly.

A hybrid model for high spatial and temporal resolution population distribution prediction

The accurate prediction of population distribution is crucial for numerous applications,from urban planning to epidemiological modelling.Using one-week data collected from open and multiple sources,including telecommunication activity,weather,point of interest,buildings,roads,and land use in Milan,Italy,we develop a hybrid method combining cellular automata(CA)and long short-term memory(LSTM)to predict population distribution with fine temporal and spatial granularity.Specifically,the convolutional autoencoder and LightGBM are applied to identify missing building types based on the pedestrian shed.The LSTM learns the transition rules of CA and Shapley additive explanations value is used for variable importance analysis.Results demonstrate that the combination of convolutional autoencoder and LightGBM is effective in building type prediction.The proposed model for population distribution prediction outperforms LSTM,the combination of CA and neural network,and the combination of CA and LightGBM by at least 5–10%.A variable importance analysis reveals that temporal variables are the most significant for prediction,followed by spatial and natural variables.The order of hour,housing-related variables,and types of precipitation are the most important variables in each category.

Population Spatial Distribution Based on Luojia 1-01 Nighttime Light Image:A Case Study of Beijing

With the continuous development of urbanization in China,the country’s growing population brings great challenges to urban development.By mastering the refined population spatial distribution in administrative units,the quantity and agglomeration of population distribution can be estimated and visualized.It will provide a basis for a more rational urban planning.This paper takes Beijing as the research area and uses a new Luojia1-01 nighttime light image with high resolution,land use type data,Points of Interest(POI)data,and other data to construct the population spatial index system,establishing the index weight based on the principal component analysis.The comprehensive weight value of population distribution in the study area was then used to calculate the street population distribution of Beijing in 2018.Then the population spatial distribution was visualize using GIS technology.After accuracy assessments by comparing the result with the WorldPop data,the accuracy has reached 0.74.The proposed method was validated as a qualified method to generate population spatial maps.By contrast of local areas,Luojia 1-01 data is more suitable for population distribution estimation than the NPP/VIIRS(Net Primary Productivity/Visible infrared Imaging Radiometer)nighttime light data.More geospatial big data and mathematical models can be combined to create more accurate population maps in the future.

Anisotropy analyses of population distribution patterns

Direction-dependence,or anisotropy,of spatial distribution patterns of vegetation is rarely explored due to neglect of this ecological phenomenon and the paucity of methods dealing with this issue.This paper proposes a new approach to anisotropy analysis of spatial distribution patterns of plant populations on the basis of the data resam-pling technique(DRT)combined with Ripley’s L index.Using the ArcView Geographic Information System(GIS)platform,a case study was carried out by selecting the popula-tion of Pinus massoniana from a needle-and broad-leaved mixed forest community in the Heishiding Nature Reserve,Guangdong Province.Results showed that the spatial pattern of the P.massoniana population was typically anisotropic with different patterns in different directions.The DRT was found to be an effective approach to the anisotropy analysis of spatial patterns of plant populations.By employing resam-pling sub-datasets from the original dataset in different direc-tions,we could overcome the difficulty in the direct use of current non-angular methods of pattern analysis.

藏羌彝走廊人口空间分异特征研究——基于人口普查数据的分析

藏羌彝走廊多样化的自然环境与各区域不同的社会经济发展状况,造就了人口分布的空间差异。随着城镇化进程加快,藏羌彝走廊人口区域集聚的研究显得尤为复杂。本文以第五、第六、第七次人口普查数据为基础,对藏羌彝走廊核心区人口空间分布进行分析,采用县域、市域双轨研究视角,从常住人口变动、人口密度变化、人口分布结构指数、空间自相关性入手,探究区域内人口空间分异特征。研究发现,藏羌彝走廊人口总体呈现出不均衡发展态势,主要表现为:常住人口增速放缓,部分地区出现人口收缩现象;人口集聚空间差异明显,人口密度连片递减;人口分布不均衡明显,不利于地区可持续发展;人口集聚具有空间相关性;区域内区(县)人口密度大多呈现“低—低”集聚态势,容易陷入人口流失的恶性循环。因此,要发挥核心城市的辐射带动作用,并加大对暂落后地区的政策倾斜和部分产业转移,通过乡村振兴战略吸引劳动力回流,促进藏羌彝走廊整体协同发展。

上海市社区型养老设施的空间分布特征与优化策略研究

社区型养老设施与大型居住型养老设施相比具有更好的社会与经济效益,也是我国养老事业未来发展的重点。文章以上海市为例,基于数据可视化平台绘制热力图,分析了全市2649家日间照护机构、为老助餐点、社会养老组织、综合为老服务中心4类社区型设施在城市空间中的分布特征,并探讨了各类型设施在规划设计上的优化策略。研究结果有利于深化对我国城市地区社区型养老设施发展现状的理解,为制定相关设施规划导则提供参考。

山东烟田烟蚜种群动态与空间分布

烟蚜在山东烟田发生普遍,危害严重。研究山东烟田烟蚜种群动态与空间分布对于提高山东烟田烟蚜预测测报准确率以及有效防控该害虫具有重要意义。试验开展了烟蚜的田间种群消长动态调查,并应用5个聚集度指标(丛生指数I,聚块指标m^(*)/m,久野指标Ca,扩散系数C,负二项分布K值)和2种回归方法(Iwao回归分析法与Toylar幂法则)研究其空间分布特征。结果表明,2020—2021年烟田烟蚜的种群动态均为双峰型曲线:第1个高峰出现在5月下旬至6月上旬,第2个高峰出现在7月上中旬。在垂直分布上,烟草植株上部叶片的烟蚜数量占比(49.07%~70.29%)显著高于中部叶片(27.64%~33.71%)和下部叶片(1.64%~19.85%)。数据分析结果显示,I(1.733 2~42.703 0)>0,m^(*)/m(2.368 3~10.414 2)>1,Ca(1.368 3~9.414 2)>0,C(2.733 2~43.703 0)>1,0<K(0.106 2~0.730 8)<8;在Iwao回归方程中,β(4.578 65)>1,α(0.190 57)>0,在Toylar幂法则回归方程中,lga(0.691 65)>0,b(1.817 05)>1,说明调查期间烟蚜种群呈聚集分布,分布的基本成分是个体群。利用空间分布参数确定了烟蚜的理论抽样数,并提出合理的田间抽样技术,即在烟田内采用“Z”字形取样法,每点选取烟草5~10株、每株烟草调查上中部叶片2~4片。

堵河源自然保护区庙台槭种群动态及空间分布

目的:探究湖北堵河源自然保护区庙台槭(Acer miaotaiense)生存现状、数量动态和分布格局,为保护庙台槭种群提供科学依据。方法:通过编制静态生命表,绘制存活曲线、死亡率和消失率曲线、生存函数曲线,分析种群龄级数量与动态特征;采用时间序列预测种群未来发展趋势;采用单变量成对相关函数分析种群的空间分布格局。结果:庙台槭种群呈不规则金字塔型,种群为增长型,但对外界干扰的敏感性较高。庙台槭种群的存活曲线为Deevey-Ⅱ型,死亡率和消失率随着龄级的增加,均呈现先陡增后陡降再缓增,峰值均出现在Ⅲ龄级。庙台槭种群的生存率随龄级增大而逐渐降低,累计死亡率随龄级增大而逐渐升高;第Ⅲ龄级后种群逐渐衰退。种群未来个体数量会随着龄级增大而增大,但会随经历的龄级时间跨度增大而逐渐减少。种群在0.5 m尺度为聚集分布,但在不同尺度整体呈随机分布。结论:庙台槭天然更新能力弱,种子萌发率低可能是幼苗缺乏的关键。种群保护实践中,应优先保护庙台槭天然生境,确保种群数量逐步恢复,同时加强人工繁育以促进种群自身的繁殖能力。

中国人口发展的空间格局研究——基于“七普”数据的实证

文章基于2020年第七次全国人口普查最新公布的全国和各省份数据资料,运用空间数据分析方法初步探讨了“七普”数据中人口分布和人口增量的格局变化。研究发现:尽管“七普”数据仍然显示出“东南高、西北低”的人口分布特征,但是内在空间结构产生了新现象,在京津冀城市群、长三角城市群和粤港澳大湾区三大城市群基础上正在形成包括成渝城市群、西咸城市群、长江中游城市群等新生城市群,中心城市也在快速成长;通过对比人口普查数据发现,东北地区出现了较为普遍的人口收缩型城市,而广州市、深圳市和成都市人口增量迁入势头迅猛;粤港澳大湾区城市群人口辐射带动作用显著,内陆城市群则需要持续关注人口“虹吸效应”潜在问题。

城市公共体育设施与人口分布的空间均衡性测度——基于上海市“社区15分钟健身圈”的实证研究

按人口要素统筹公共体育设施的空间布局,提高公共体育设施的均衡性与可及性,实现“社区15分钟健身圈”的高质量全覆盖,是构建更高水平全民健身公共服务体系的必然要求。为精准识别城市公共体育设施与人口分布的空间失衡问题,完善公共体育设施的空间布局,构建了“城市公共体育设施与人口分布的空间均衡性”测度工具,并以上海市作为典型案例,进行了实证研究。研究发现:(1)上海市整体“社区15分钟健身圈”的覆盖率较高,但供给充分的“社区15分钟健身圈”比例仍有提高的空间。(2)上海市“社区15分钟健身圈”的覆盖率呈现“中心高-边缘低”的特征,而供给充分的“社区15分钟健身圈”比例呈现出“中心低-边缘高”的特征。研究结果表明,上海市公共体育设施的空间配置存在以下问题:(1)总量不足导致中心城区供给充分的“社区15分钟健身圈”比例不高;(2)分布不均导致近郊区供给充分的“社区15分钟健身圈”比例不高;(3)“边界洼地效应”导致近郊区和远郊区部分地区“社区15分钟健身圈”供给缺失。研究建议:(1)升级改造现有设施,提高体育建设用地利用效率;(2)充分利用非体育用地拓展体育空间;(3)主动应对人口流动带来的需求冲击,在公共体育设施配置上保留“弹性”空间;(4)加强公共体育设施规划的顶层设计,避免协调不足导致“边界洼地效应”。

Multi-criteria Satisfaction Assessment of the Spatial Distribution of Urban Emergency Shelters Based on High-Precision Population Estimation

This article introduces a framework for the multi-criteria satisfaction assessment of the spatial distribution of urban emergency shelters.A GIS-based analytic hierarchy process approach was utilized to conduct the assessment based on selected criteria layers for daytime and nighttime scenarios,respectively.The layers were generated from high-precision land use data based on highresolution aerial images and census data.Considering the uncertainty in criteria weighting,a spatial sensitivity analysis was undertaken for deriving more accurate results.The feasibility of the framework was tested on a case study in Jing'an District,Shanghai,China.The assessment results show that both at nighttime and during daytime,even if all potentially available shelters are open,the demand in large areas can only be marginally satisfied or not satisfied,especially in the northern,eastern,and central parts of Jing'an District.The quantitative analysis of the satisfaction conditions of the buildings or land parcels and the affected people,especially children and the elderly,shows a low satisfaction level of shelter services in these areas.The satisfaction assessment of emergency shelters can help government decision makers find low satisfaction areas of sheltering services and support further locationallocation optimization of urban emergency shelters.

经济视角下四川省人口空间分布与演变特征

引入重心模型、相关分析、熵权法等研究方法,以四川省的21个地级市(州)为研究对象,采用四川省的人口与经济数据,综合分析经济视角下四川省人口空间分布及其演变特征。研究发现:2010-2020年四川省人口重心呈向西移动的趋势;市域尺度上,人口密度存在空间自相关;人口性别比呈下降的趋势,城镇人口比重呈上升的趋势,人口出生率、死亡率及自然增长率在波动中下降。经济重心总体呈向东北移动的趋势,均位于成都市,可见成都市经济发展水平高;区域经济空间结构较稳定,经济体具有保持原有状态的“惰性”。四川省的经济发展水平和人口密度之间存在显著的正相关,经济发展水平较高的地区资源聚集,形成典型的“增长极”,人口流动量、人口规模、人口增长量相对较大,是典型的人口与经济活跃区,而经济发展水平较低的地区的状态则相反。

基于空间统计分析与GIS的人口空间分布模式研究——以甘肃省天水市为例

该文将空间统计分析与GIS相结合,探讨天水市人口空间分布模式。研究表明,天水市人口空间分布呈现"西北—东南"模式,存在显著的空间集聚现象,四种类型的空间关联在空间分布上具有明显的规律性。利用空间统计分析方法能够扩展和加强GIS的空间分析功能,从而更深入地探索、分析、处理和解释人口分布的空间模式与空间关联,为进一步研究空间模式的发生尺度和塑造该模式的空间过程奠定基础。

1990—2010年云南省少数民族人口分布空间差异分析

收集整理了云南省第四、五、六次少数民族人口普查数据,创建了1990,2000,2010年GIS数据集,采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)的全局和局部空间自相关分析方法,对县域全局和局部空间差异的变化趋势、特征与成因进行了初步探索。结果表明:(1)20年中,云南省少数民族人口分布具有显著的空间正相关性,但随着产业结构的调整以及就业人员的再分配,其空间相关性在逐步降低。(2)2000—2010年的10年内,云南省少数民族人口分布出现了在局部区域内显著聚集且增加的现象,主要集中在滇东南地区,而且表现出了一定的扩散效应。(3)随着云南省少数民族地区社会、经济的发展,少数民族区域人口分布空间差异有可能会进一步扩大。

安徽琅琊山青檀种群空间格局

利用点格局O-Ring统计法,分析安徽省琅琊山青檀种群的空间分布格局。结果表明:青檀种群趋于小龄化,种群结构呈倒"J"型,属增长型种群;种群中Ⅰ龄级个体在r<25m的尺度上呈集群分布;Ⅱ龄级个体呈随机分布,随龄级增大,逐渐趋于均匀分布;不同龄级间青檀个体的关联性研究表明,只有Ⅰ龄级和Ⅱ龄级个体在r>8m的尺度上呈正关联,其余各龄级间均无显著关联。

云龙天池云南松自然种群分布格局分析

[目的]对云南松种群年龄结构和空间分布格局的变化以及不同生长阶段个体的空间分布格局及空间关联性进行了研究,从空间格局角度深入认识云南松林群落结构和分布格局及其形成的内在机制。[方法]基于云南省云龙县天池自然保护区云南松天然林的样地调查数据,基于云南松的种群径级结构,采用Ripley’s L函数点格局方法,对云南松自然种群的龄级结构、空间分布格局及其不同生长阶段空间关联性进行了系统分析。[结果]云南松自然种群径级和高度级结构完整,分布呈倒"J"型;云南松自然种群整体上在0 40 m的空间尺度上呈"聚集-随机"的分布格局;云南松自然种群个体在幼树和小树阶段,在较大的尺度上呈聚集分布,随着尺度的增加转变为随机分布,而在中树阶段完全呈聚集分布,随着龄级的递增,大树阶段的空间分布格局呈随机分布;云南松自然种群不同生长阶段个体间空间关联在所有尺度上基本都呈显著正相关。[结论]云南松自然种群结构属增长型种群;云南松自然种群不同生长阶段的个体呈现不同的分布格局,表现出强烈的空间动态特性;云南松种群各生长阶段间正向的关系,有利于种群的维持。

上海市人口分布变动的空间特征分析

空间自相关分析是一种空间统计的方法,可以揭示区域变量的空间结构形态。通过对2000-2003年期间上海市乡镇人口密度变化率的空间相关性分析,发现上海市近几年人口分布空间变动格局表现为以中心城区为中心的环状分布模式,中心城区和远郊区人口密度变化小,人口增长缓慢,而近郊区人口密度变化大,人口增长迅速。全市人口密度变化率存在着显著的空间集聚现象,四种类型的空间关联在空间分布上具有明显的规律性。研究结果表明,目前上海市人口郊区化趋势明显,高人口密度区域在不断向外扩张,人口分布与经济、交通等社会发展因素的关系日益密切。这些研究结果说明利用空间自相关统计方法能够扩展和加强对人口分布空间模式的研究,从而为经济总体布局和城市化建设提供辅助参考作用。

广西北仑河口红树植物种群结构与动态特征

以广西北仑河口国家级自然保护区4种红树植物秋茄(Kandelia obovata)、桐花树(Aegiceras corniculatum)、白骨壤(Avicennia marina)和木榄(Bruguiera gymnorrhiza)为研究对象,在野外样地调查的基础上,采用高度级和大小级结构、静态生命表、存活曲线、时间序列分析和7种聚集强度指数等方法对4种红树植物的种群结构和动态进行了分析和预测,旨在阐明红树植物种群与群落的结构特征和动态变化规律以及潜在的驱动机制,为广西红树林生态系统的保护与恢复提供基础资料和科学依据。研究结果表明:木榄和秋茄种群更新良好,桐花树更新受到一定阻力,种群相对稳定,白骨壤种群更新不良,呈现明显的衰退趋势;4种红树植物种群不同龄级的存活量差别较大,存活量和生命期望一般随龄级的增加逐渐减少;白骨壤种群的存活曲线属于DeeveyⅠ型,其种群个体均能达到其平均生理寿命,木榄和秋茄种群属DeeveyⅡ型,各龄级个体具有相对一致的死亡率,而桐花树种群介于DeeveyⅠ型和DeeveyⅡ型之间,其幼龄期死亡率偏高,中龄期后死亡率逐渐接近;时间序列分析同样表明,白骨壤未来种群数量将明显降低,种群逐步衰退,桐花树未来种群数量将表现为稳中有降,而木榄和秋茄未来种群数量将趋于增加。4种红树植物不同龄级种群多呈现聚集分布,聚集强度往往随种群龄级的增加而趋于降低。上述结果表明,北仑河口4种红树植物的种群动态与群落所处演替阶段息息相关,先锋植物白骨壤种群处于较快衰退阶段,演替前中期的桐花树种群稳中有降,而演替中后期的秋茄和木榄种群出现不同程度的增长,反映出本次调查的红树林群落正处于演替的中期阶段,白骨壤和白骨壤+桐花树群丛将逐步演替为以木榄为优势种的群丛。此外,红树植物的种群动态受到自身繁殖特性、生境条件、种内和种间竞争、虫害等多种因素的调控。