On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

Comparison of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models in determining moisture recycling ratio

Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.

Evaluation of Nonbreaking Wave-Induced Mixing Parameterization Schemes Based on a One-Dimensional Ocean Model

Surface waves have a considerable effect on vertical mixing in the upper ocean.In the past two decades,the vertical mixing induced through nonbreaking surface waves has been used in ocean and climate models to improve the simulation of the upper ocean.Thus far,several nonbreaking wave-induced mixing parameterization schemes have been proposed;however,no quantitative comparison has been performed among them.In this paper,a one-dimensional ocean model was used to compare the performances of five schemes,including those of Qiao et al.(Q),Hu and Wang(HW),Huang and Qiao(HQ),Pleskachevsky et al.(P),and Ghantous and Babanin(GB).Similar to previous studies,all of these schemes can decrease the simulated sea surface temperature(SST),increase the subsurface temperature,and deepen the mixed layer,thereby alleviating the common thermal deviation problem of the ocean model for upper ocean simulation.Among these schemes,the HQ scheme exhibited the weakest wave-induced mixing effect,and the HW scheme exhibited the strongest effect;the other three schemes exhibited roughly the same effect.In particular,the Q and P schemes exhibited nearly the same effect.In the simulation based on observations from the Ocean Weather Station Papa,the HQ scheme exhibited the best performance,followed by the Q scheme.In the experiment with the HQ scheme,the root-mean-square deviation of the simulated SST from the observations was 0.43℃,and the mixed layer depth(MLD)was 2.0 m.As a contrast,the deviations of the SST and MLD reached 1.25℃ and 8.4 m,respectively,in the experiment without wave-induced mixing.

A unified Minorization-Maximization approach for estimation of general mixture models

The mixed distribution model is often used to extract information from heteroge-neous data and perform modeling analysis.When the density function of mixed distribution is complicated or the variable dimension is high,it usually brings challenges to the parameter es-timation of the mixed distribution model.The application of MM algorithm can avoid complex expectation calculations,and can also solve the problem of high-dimensional optimization by decomposing the objective function.In this paper,MM algorithm is applied to the parameter estimation problem of mixed distribution model.The method of assembly and decomposition is used to construct the substitute function with separable parameters,which avoids the problems of complex expectation calculations and the inversion of high-dimensional matrices.

Reinforcement Learning Based Quantization Strategy Optimal Assignment Algorithm for Mixed Precision

The quantization algorithm compresses the original network by reducing the numerical bit width of the model,which improves the computation speed. Because different layers have different redundancy and sensitivity to databit width. Reducing the data bit width will result in a loss of accuracy. Therefore, it is difficult to determinethe optimal bit width for different parts of the network with guaranteed accuracy. Mixed precision quantizationcan effectively reduce the amount of computation while keeping the model accuracy basically unchanged. In thispaper, a hardware-aware mixed precision quantization strategy optimal assignment algorithm adapted to low bitwidth is proposed, and reinforcement learning is used to automatically predict the mixed precision that meets theconstraints of hardware resources. In the state-space design, the standard deviation of weights is used to measurethe distribution difference of data, the execution speed feedback of simulated neural network accelerator inferenceis used as the environment to limit the action space of the agent, and the accuracy of the quantization model afterretraining is used as the reward function to guide the agent to carry out deep reinforcement learning training. Theexperimental results show that the proposed method obtains a suitable model layer-by-layer quantization strategyunder the condition that the computational resources are satisfied, and themodel accuracy is effectively improved.The proposed method has strong intelligence and certain universality and has strong application potential in thefield of mixed precision quantization and embedded neural network model deployment.

Improved cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation of mixed additive and multiplicative random error model

To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.

Mathematical modeling of mixed convective MHD Falkner-Skan squeezed Sutterby multiphase flow with non-Fourier heat flux theory and porosity

In a wide variety of mechanical and industrial applications,e.g.,space cooling,nuclear reactor cooling,medicinal utilizations(magnetic drug targeting),energy generation,and heat conduction in tissues,the heat transfer phenomenon is involved.Fourier’s law of heat conduction has been used as the foundation for predicting the heat transfer behavior in a variety of real-world contexts.This model’s production of a parabolic energy expression,which means that an initial disturbance would immediately affect the system under investigation,is one of its main drawbacks.Therefore,numerous researchers worked on such problem to resolve this issue.At last,this problem was resolved by Cattaneo by adding relaxation time for heat flux in Fourier’s law,which was defined as the time required to establish steady heat conduction once a temperature gradient is imposed.Christov offered a material invariant version of Cattaneo’s model by taking into account the upper-connected derivative of the Oldroyd model.Nowadays,both models are combinedly known as the Cattaneo-Christov(CC)model.In this attempt,the mixed convective MHD Falkner-Skan Sutterby nanofluid flow is addressed towards a wedge surface in the presence of the variable external magnetic field.The CC model is incorporated instead of Fourier’s law for the examination of heat transfer features in the energy expression.A two-phase nanofluid model is utilized for the implementation of nano-concept.The nonlinear system of equations is tackled through the bvp4c technique in the MATLAB software 2016.The influence of pertinent flow parameters is discussed and displayed through different sketches.Major and important results are summarized in the conclusion section.Furthermore,in both cases of wall-through flow(i.e.,suction and injection effects),the porosity parameters increase the flow speed,and decrease the heat transport and the influence of drag forces.

A novel model to evaluate spatial structure in thinned conifer-broadleaved mixed natural forests

In order to ensure the effective analysis and reconstruction of forests,it is key to ensure the quantitative description of their spatial structure.In this paper,a distance model for the optimal stand spatial structure based on weighted Voronoi diagrams is proposed.In particular,we provide a novel methodological model for the comprehensive evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands in natural mixed conifer-broadleaved forests and the formulation of management decision plans.The applicability of the rank evaluation and the optimal solution distance model are compared and assessed for different standard sample plots of natural mixed conifer-broadleaved forests.The effect of crown width on the spatial structure unit of the trees is observed to be higher than that of the diameter at breast height.Moreover,the influence of crown length is greater than that of tree height.There are nine possible spatial structure units determined by the weighted Voronoi diagram for the number of neighboring trees in the central tree,with an average intersection of neighboring crowns reaching 80%.The rank rating of natural forest sample plots is correlated with the optimal solution distance model,and their results are generally consistent for natural forests.However,the rank rating is not able to provide a quantitative assessment.The optimal solution distance model is observed to be more comprehensive than traditional methods for the evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands.It can effectively reflect the trends in realistic stand spatial structure factors close to or far from the ideal structure point,and accurately assesses the forest spatial structure.The proposed optimal solution distance model improves the integrated evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands and provides solid theoretical and technical support for sustainable forest management.

Simulation analysis of wear characteristics of connecting rod bearing bush based on improved mixed lubrication model

The failure rate of crankpin bearing bush of diesel engine under complex working conditions such as high temperature,dynamic load and variable speed is high.After serious wear,it is easy to deteriorate the stress state of connecting rod body and connecting rod bolt,resulting in serious accidents such as connecting rod fracture and body damage.Based on the mixed lubrication characteristics of connecting rod big endbearing shell of diesel engine under high explosion pressure impact load,an improved mixed lubrication mechanism model is established,which considers the influence of viscoelastic micro deformation of bearing bush material,integrates the full film lubrication model and dry friction model,couples dynamic equation of connecting rod.Then the actual lubrication state of big end bearing shell is simulated numerically.Further,the correctness of the theoretical research results is verified by fault simulation experiments.The results show that the high-frequency impact signal with fixed angle domain characteristics will be generated after the serious wear of bearing bush and the deterioration of lubrication state.The fault feature capture and alarm can be realized through the condition monitoring system,which can be applied to the fault monitoring of connecting rod bearing bush of diesel engine in the future.

Research on Mixed Logic Dynamic Modeling and Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control of Multi-Inverter Parallel System

Parallel connection of multiple inverters is an important means to solve the expansion,reserve and protection of distributed power generation,such as photovoltaics.In view of the shortcomings of traditional droop control methods such as weak anti-interference ability,low tracking accuracy of inverter output voltage and serious circulation phenomenon,a finite control set model predictive control(FCS-MPC)strategy of microgrid multiinverter parallel system based on Mixed Logical Dynamical(MLD)modeling is proposed.Firstly,the MLD modeling method is introduced logical variables,combining discrete events and continuous events to form an overall differential equation,which makes the modeling more accurate.Then a predictive controller is designed based on the model,and constraints are added to the objective function,which can not only solve the real-time changes of the control system by online optimization,but also effectively obtain a higher tracking accuracy of the inverter output voltage and lower total harmonic distortion rate(Total Harmonics Distortion,THD);and suppress the circulating current between the inverters,to obtain a good dynamic response.Finally,the simulation is carried out onMATLAB/Simulink to verify the correctness of the model and the rationality of the proposed strategy.This paper aims to provide guidance for the design and optimal control of multi-inverter parallel systems.

Reliability Analysis of a Mixed Redundant Model in C 3I System

Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute system. The reliability and availability equations of MRM were deduced. Results and Conclusion Compared with several other reliability models, it has obvious effect upon improving the system reliability. The effect? cost rate is very high among these models. The model can be used in reliability design, evaluation and check of C 3I system. Only a little attached cost is needed to improve C 3I system reliability effectively.

Analysis of Mixed Model in Gear Transmission Based on ADAMS

The traditional method of mechanical gear driving simulation includes gear pair method and solid to solid contact method. The former has higher solving efficiency but lower results accuracy; the latter usually obtains higher precision of results while the calculation process is complex, also it is not easy to converge. Currently, most of the researches are focused on the description of geometric models and the definition of boundary conditions. However, none of them can solve the problems fundamentally. To improve the simulation efficiency while ensure the results with high accuracy, a mixed model method which uses gear tooth profiles to take the place of the solid gear to simulate gear movement is presented under these circumstances. In the process of modeling, build the solid models of the mechanism in the SolidWorks firstly; Then collect the point coordinates of outline curves of the gear using SolidWorks API and create fit curves in Adams based on the point coordinates; Next, adjust the position of those fitting curves according to the position of the contact area; Finally, define the loading conditions, boundary conditions and simulation parameters. The method provides gear shape information by tooth profile curves; simulates the mesh process through tooth profile curve to curve contact and offer mass as well as inertia data via solid gear models. This simulation process combines the two models to complete the gear driving analysis. In order to verify the validity of the method presented, both theoretical derivation and numerical simulation on a runaway escapement are conducted. The results show that the computational efficiency of the mixed model method is 1.4 times over the traditional method which contains solid to solid contact. Meanwhile, the simulation results are more closely to theoretical calculations. Consequently, mixed model method has a high application value regarding to the study of the dynamics of gear mechanism.

WOMBAT—A tool for mixed model analyses in quantitative genetics by restricted maximum likelihood (REML)

WOMBAT is a software package for quantitative genetic analyses of continuous traits, fitting a linear, mixed model; estimates of covariance components and the resulting genetic parameters are obtained by restricted maximum likelihood. A wide range of models, comprising numerous traits, multiple fixed and random effects, selected genetic covariance structures, random regression models and reduced rank estimation are accommodated. WOMBAT employs up-to-date numerical and computational methods. Together with the use of efficient compilers, this generates fast executable programs, suitable for large scale analyses. Use of WOMBAT is illustrated for a bivariate analysis. The package consists of the executable program, available for LINUX and WINDOWS environments, manual and a set of worked example, and can be downloaded free of charge from http：//agbu. une.edu.au/-kmeyer/wombat.html

Three-dimensional numerical modeling of gravity anomalies based on Poisson equation in spacewavenumber mixed domain

In gravity-anomaly-based prospecting, the computational and memory requirements for practical numerical modeling are potentially enormous. Achieving an efficient and precise inversion for gravity anomaly imaging over large-scale and complex terrain requires additional methods. To this end, we have proposed a new topography-capable By performing a two-dimensional Fourier transform in the horizontal directions, threedimensional partial differential equations in the spatial domain were transformed into a group of independent, one-dimensional differential equations engaged with different wave numbers. These independent differential equations are highly parallel across different wave numbers. differential equations with different wave numbers, and the efficiency of solving fixedbandwidth linear equations was further improved by a chasing method. In a synthetic test, a prism model was used to verify the accuracy and reliability of the proposed algorithm by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical solution. We studied the computational precision and efficiency with and without topography using different Fourier transform methods. The results showed that the Guass-FFT method has higher numerical precision, while the standard FFT method is superior, in terms of computation time, for inversion and quantitative interpretation under complicated terrain.

Modelling tree mortality across diameter classes using mixedeffects zero-inflated models

The mortality of trees across diameter class model is a useful tool for predicting changes in stand structure.Mortality data commonly contain a large fraction of zeros and general discrete models thus show more errors.Based on the traditional Poisson model and the negative binomial model,different forms of zero-inflated and hurdle models were applied to spruce-fir mixed forests data to simulate the number of dead trees.By comparing the residuals and Vuong test statistics,the zero-inflated negative binomial model performed best.A random effect was added to improve the model accuracy;however,the mixed-effects zero-inflated model did not show increased advantages.According to the model principle,the zeroinflated negative binomial model was the most suitable,indicating that the"0"events in this study,mainly from the sample"0",i.e.,the zero mortality data,are largely due to the limitations of the experimental design and sample selection.These results also show that the number of dead trees in the diameter class is positively correlated with the number of trees in that class and the mean stand diameter,and inversely related to class size,and slope and aspect of the site.

Accuracy comparison of dry matter intake prediction models evaluated by a feeding trial of lactating dairy cows fed two total mixed rations with different forage source

Dry matter intake （DMI） prediction models of NRC （2001）, Fox et aL （2004） and Fuentes-Pila et aL （2003） were targeted in the present study, and the objective was to evaluate their prediction accuracy with feeding trial data of 32 lactating Holstein cows fed two total mixed rations with different forage source. Thirty-two cows were randomly assigned to one of two total mixed ration groups： a ration containing a mixed forage （MF） of 3.7% Chinese wildrye, 28.4% alfalfa hay and 26.5% corn silage diet and another ration containing 33.8% corn stover （CS） as unique forage source. The actual DMI was greater in MF group than in CS group （P=0.064）. The NRC model to predict DMI resulted in the lowest root mean square prediction error for both MF and CS groups （1.09 kg d-1 vs. 1.28 kg d-1） and the highest accuracy and precision based on concordance correlation coefficient for both MF and CS diet （0.89 vs. 0.87）. Except the NRC model, the other two models presented mean and linear biases in both MF and CS diets when prediction residuals were plotted against predicted DMI values （P〈0.001）. The DMI variation in MF was caused by week of lactation （55.6%）, milk yield （13.9%）, milk fat percentage （7.1%） and dietary neutral detergent fiber （13.3%）, while the variation in CS was caused by week of lactation （50.9%）, live body weight （28.2%）, milk yield （8.4%）, milk fat percentage （5.2%） and dietary neutral detergent fibre （3.8%）. In a brief, the NRC model to predict DMI is comparatively acceptable for lactating dairy cows fed two total mixed rations with different forage source.

A Mathematical Calculation Model Using Biomarkers to Quantitatively Determine the Relative Source Proportion of Mixed Oils

It is difficult to identify the source（s） of mixed oils from multiple source rocks, and in particular the relative contribution of each source rock. Artificial mixing experiments using typical crude oils and ratios of different biomarkers show that the relative contribution changes are non-linear when two oils with different concentrations of biomarkers mix with each other. This may result in an incorrect conclusion if ratios of biomarkers and a simple binary linear equation are used to calculate the contribution proportion of each end-member to the mixed oil. The changes of biomarker ratios with the mixing proportion of end-member oils in the trinal mixing model are more complex than in the binary mixing model. When four or more oils mix, the contribution proportion of each end-member oil to the mixed oil cannot be calculated using biomarker ratios and a simple formula. Artificial mixing experiments on typical oils reveal that the absolute concentrations of biomarkers in the mixed oil cause a linear change with mixing proportion of each end-member. Mathematical inferences verify such linear changes. Some of the mathematical calculation methods using the absolute concentrations or ratios of biomarkers to quantitatively determine the proportion of each end-member in the mixed oils are deduced from the results of artificial experiments and by theoretical inference. Ratio of two biomarker compounds changes as a hyperbola with the mixing proportion in the binary mixing model, as a hyperboloid in the trinal mixing model, and as a hypersurface when mixing more than three end- members. The mixing proportion of each end-member can be quantitatively determined with these mathematical models, using the absolute concentrations and the ratios of biomarkers. The mathematical calculation model is more economical, convenient, accurate and reliable than conventional artificial mixing methods.

Local and generalized height-diameter models with random parameters for mixed,uneven-aged forests in Northwestern Durango,Mexico

Background:We used mixed models with random components to develop height-diameter(h-d) functions for mixed,uneven-aged stands in northwestern Durango(Mexico),considering the breast height diameter(d) and stand variables as predictors.Methods:The data were obtained from 44 permanent plots used to monitor stand growth under forest management in the study area.Results:The generalized Bertalanffy-Richards model performed better than the other generalized models in predicting the total height of the species under study.For the genera Pinus and Quercus,the models were successfully calibrated by measuring the height of a subsample of three randomly selected trees close to the mean d,whereas for species of the genera Cupressus,Arbutus and Alnus,three trees were also selected,but they are specifically the maximum,minimum and mean d trees.Conclusions:The presented equations represent a new tool for the evaluation and management of natural forest in the region.

Can a multistage approach improve individual tree mortality predictions across the complex mixed-species and managed forests of eastern North America?

Tree mortality plays a fundamental role in the dynamics of forest ecosystems,yet it is one of the most difficult phenomena to accurately predict.Various modeling strategies have been developed to improve individual tree mortality predictions.One less explored strategy is the use of a multistage modeling approach.Potential improvements from this approach have remained largely unknown.In this study,we developed a novel multistage approach and compared its performance in individual tree mortality predictions with a more conventional approach using an identical individual tree mortality model formulation.Extensive permanent plot data(n=9442)covering the Acadian Region of North America and over multiple decades(1965–2014)were used in this study.Our results indicated that the model behavior with the multistage approach better depicted the observed mortality and showed a notable improvement over the conventional approach.The difference between the observed and predicted numbers of dead trees using the multistage approach was much smaller when compared with the conventional approach.In addition,tree survival probabilities predicted by the multistage approach generally were not significantly different from the observations,whereas the conventional approach consistently underestimated mortality across species and overestimated tree survival probabilities over the large range of DBH in the data.The new multistage approach also predictions of zero mortality in individual plots,a result not possible in conventional models.Finally,the new approach was more tolerant of modeling errors because it based estimates on ranked tree mortality rather than error-prone predicted values.Overall,this new multistage approach deserves to be considered and tested in future studies.