基于Mixed-MRIO模型的湖北省洪涝灾害脆弱性区域产业识别

随着区域经济一体化发展,某地区遭受洪涝灾害会通过产业关联对灾区外造成波及影响,准确预估其影响大小有助于城市产业的规划建设。构建直接、波及损失集成评估框架,利用功能脆弱性曲线估算不同超大规模淹没情景下受灾区各产业部门的直接损失,将其设置为外生冲击变量,输入混合多区域投入产出模型(Mixed-MRIO Model),评估灾区外的波及损失,识别湖北省内洪涝灾害脆弱性区域及产业部门。主要结论如下:(1)武汉市中度淹没情景下造成的波及损失是直接损失的36.61%;(2)从区域关联角度分析,荆门市和荆州市与省内其他区域的产业后向关联较为紧密且更加脆弱,在超大规模洪涝灾害冲击数值模拟中所遭受的损失始终位于前列,二者平均损失值约为损失值最小的天门神农架地区的4.8和4.2倍;(3)从产业关联角度分析,省内发生洪涝灾害造成的波及影响主要集中在农业、生活相关制造业以及居民服务业与交通运输、仓储和邮政业等生产性服务业,其中损失值最大的生活相关制造业是损失最小的科学研究和技术服务业的百倍之多。研究结果可为政府制定防灾减灾政策、灾后重建决策等提供参考。

A comparative study of countries' responsibilities for carbon dioxide emission in an open economy

In an open economy,embodied carbon dioxide emissions in international trade should be taken into consideration to scientifically define each country's emissions responsibility.In this study,a multiregional input-output model is constructed to calculate the embodied carbon dioxide emissions of 25 World Trade Organization members,including China,according to the producer-consumer shared responsibility principle.The study indicates that:it is fairer and more efficient to identify each country's carbon dioxide emissions responsibility according to the shared responsibility principle;China's producer responsibility is 1.4 times that of the USA,while China's consumer responsibility is only one-tenth that of the USA;according to the producer responsibility principle,China shoulders the greatest responsibility.According to the producerconsumer shared responsibility principle,China's responsibility shows a large decrease.Resource endowment,economic development stage,and trade structure account for the abovementioned changes in China's emissions responsibility.

Quantifying Inter-regional Trade Inequality of China's Cities Based on Environmental-economic Benefits in Virtual Built-up Land Flow

The development of spatial interactions of land resources enhances virtual built-up land flow,which contributes to China's inter-regional trade inequality.Little is known about the degree of inequality among regions.This work seeks to estimate the degree of inter-regional trade inequality through environmental-economic benefits.We combined a multiregional input-output model at the city level with a new classification to calculate the virtual built-up land flow among cities and analyzed its implications for the regional economy and carbon balance.The results indicate that developed regions were the main beneficiaries of inter-regional trade,as reflected in land-use efficiency.China's economic hub has been progressively shifting southward,and the inter-regional trade inequality has continuously increased.The flow of virtual service industry land among developed regions rose,while underdeveloped regions remained suppliers of raw materials,further increasing inter-regional trade inequality.

Water consumption and biodiversity:Responses to global emergency events

Given that it was a once-in-a-century emergency event,the confinement measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic caused diverse disruptions and changes in life and work patterns.These changes significantly affected water consumption both during and after the pandemic,with direct and indirect consequences on biodiversity.However,there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of these responses.Here,we propose a novel framework to study the impacts of this unique global emergency event by embedding an environmentally extended supply-constrained global multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)into the drivers-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)framework.This framework allowed us to develop scenarios related to COVID-19 confinement measures to quantify country-sector-specific changes in freshwater consumption and the associated changes in biodiversity for the period of 2020-2025.The results suggest progressively diminishing impacts due to the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and the socio-economic system’s self-adjustment to the new normal.In 2020,the confinement measures were estimated to decrease global water consumption by about 5.7% on average across all scenarios when compared with the baseline level with no confinement measures.Further,such a decrease is estimated to lead to a reduction of around 5% in the related pressure on biodiversity.Given the interdependencies and interactions across global supply chains,even those countries and sectors that were not directly affected by the COVID-19 shocks experienced significant impacts:Our results indicate that the supply chain propagations contributed to 79% of the total estimated decrease in water consumption and 84%of the reduction in biodiversity loss on average.Our study demonstrates that the MRIO-enhanced DSPIR framework can help quantify resource pressures and the resultant environmental impacts across supply chains when facing a global emergency event.Further,we recommend the development of more locally based water conservation measures—to mitigate the effects of trade disruptions—and the explicit inclusion of water resources in post-pandemic recovery schemes.In addition,innovations that help conserve natural resources are essential for maintaining environmental gains in the post-pandemic world.