基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

耦合优化蚁群算法与P-Median model的选址模型设计

为节省城建部门对于公共体育设施的投入成本以及提高城市人民生活质量,以运动场所优化选址为例,提出一种新型设施选址模型。该模型主要基于P-Median model(最小化阻抗模型)根据需求点数量从全部候选设施选址中选择设施空间位置,让用户达到离自己最近设施距离成本总和最小的目的,对选址的基本原则和实际情况提出要求,构造目标函数用于优化后蚁群算法求解进行选址工作。优化蚁群算法实现基于Python语言模块,通过改进蚁群原始信息素,提升原有算法的收敛速度,求出目标函数最优解,可以很好地模拟对于运动场所的选址。用二者耦合进行优势互补所设计的选址模型来搜寻研究区蚁群信息素浓度残留最大的栅格像元,从而确定未被已有设施点服务半径覆盖的最佳设施点建立位置。实验结果表明,该新型选址模型相较于最小化阻抗模型与最大化覆盖模型,新增优化设施点使整体服务半径覆盖率分别高出10.42%和6.95%,适合求解较为精确且小规模空间下的选址问题。

Mshpy23:a user-friendly,parameterized model of magnetosheath conditions

Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.

24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究

为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。

Assessing the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Droughts across Global Drylands

Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.

Background removal from global auroral images:Data-driven dayglow modeling

Global images of auroras obtained by cameras on spacecraft are a key tool for studying the near-Earth environment.However,the cameras are sensitive not only to auroral emissions produced by precipitating particles,but also to dayglow emissions produced by photoelectrons induced by sunlight.Nightglow emissions and scattered sunlight can contribute to the background signal.To fully utilize such images in space science,background contamination must be removed to isolate the auroral signal.Here we outline a data-driven approach to modeling the background intensity in multiple images by formulating linear inverse problems based on B-splines and spherical harmonics.The approach is robust,flexible,and iteratively deselects outliers,such as auroral emissions.The final model is smooth across the terminator and accounts for slow temporal variations and large-scale asymmetries in the dayglow.We demonstrate the model by using the three far ultraviolet cameras on the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration(IMAGE)mission.The method can be applied to historical missions and is relevant for upcoming missions,such as the Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)mission.

Fractal Fractional Order Operators in Computational Techniques for Mathematical Models in Epidemiology

New fractional operators, the COVID-19 model has been studied in this paper. By using different numericaltechniques and the time fractional parameters, the mechanical characteristics of the fractional order model areidentified. The uniqueness and existence have been established. Themodel’sUlam-Hyers stability analysis has beenfound. In order to justify the theoretical results, numerical simulations are carried out for the presented methodin the range of fractional order to show the implications of fractional and fractal orders.We applied very effectivenumerical techniques to obtain the solutions of themodel and simulations. Also, we present conditions of existencefor a solution to the proposed epidemicmodel and to calculate the reproduction number in certain state conditionsof the analyzed dynamic system. COVID-19 fractional order model for the case of Wuhan, China, is offered foranalysis with simulations in order to determine the possible efficacy of Coronavirus disease transmission in theCommunity. For this reason, we employed the COVID-19 fractal fractional derivative model in the example ofWuhan, China, with the given beginning conditions. In conclusion, again the mathematical models with fractionaloperators can facilitate the improvement of decision-making for measures to be taken in the management of anepidemic situation.

Model reduction of fractional impedance spectra for time–frequency analysis of batteries, fuel cells, and supercapacitors

Joint time–frequency analysis is an emerging method for interpreting the underlying physics in fuel cells,batteries,and supercapacitors.To increase the reliability of time–frequency analysis,a theoretical correlation between frequency-domain stationary analysis and time-domain transient analysis is urgently required.The present work formularizes a thorough model reduction of fractional impedance spectra for electrochemical energy devices involving not only the model reduction from fractional-order models to integer-order models and from high-to low-order RC circuits but also insight into the evolution of the characteristic time constants during the whole reduction process.The following work has been carried out:(i)the model-reduction theory is addressed for typical Warburg elements and RC circuits based on the continued fraction expansion theory and the response error minimization technique,respectively;(ii)the order effect on the model reduction of typical Warburg elements is quantitatively evaluated by time–frequency analysis;(iii)the results of time–frequency analysis are confirmed to be useful to determine the reduction order in terms of the kinetic information needed to be captured;and(iv)the results of time–frequency analysis are validated for the model reduction of fractional impedance spectra for lithium-ion batteries,supercapacitors,and solid oxide fuel cells.In turn,the numerical validation has demonstrated the powerful function of the joint time–frequency analysis.The thorough model reduction of fractional impedance spectra addressed in the present work not only clarifies the relationship between time-domain transient analysis and frequency-domain stationary analysis but also enhances the reliability of the joint time–frequency analysis for electrochemical energy devices.

Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND Liver transplantation(LT)is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease.However,the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge.Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates.Traditionally,scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process.Nevertheless,the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning(ML)and artificial intelligence models.AIM To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT,comparing their performance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.METHODS Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines,we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database.Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year,age,or gender.Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English studies,review articles,case reports,conference papers,studies with missing data,or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.RESULTS Our search yielded a total of 64 articles,with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria.Among the selected studies,60.8%originated from the United States and China combined.Only one pediatric study met the criteria.Notably,91%of the studies were published within the past five years.ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values(ranging from 0.6 to 1)across all studies,surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems.Random forest exhibited superior predictive capabilities for 90-d mortality following LT,sepsis,and acute kidney injury(AKI).In contrast,gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease,pneumonia,and AKI.CONCLUSION This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT,marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Novel Investigation of Stochastic Fractional Differential Equations Measles Model via the White Noise and Global Derivative Operator Depending on Mittag-Leffler Kernel

Because of the features involved with their varied kernels,differential operators relying on convolution formulations have been acknowledged as effective mathematical resources for modeling real-world issues.In this paper,we constructed a stochastic fractional framework of measles spreading mechanisms with dual medication immunization considering the exponential decay and Mittag-Leffler kernels.In this approach,the overall population was separated into five cohorts.Furthermore,the descriptive behavior of the system was investigated,including prerequisites for the positivity of solutions,invariant domain of the solution,presence and stability of equilibrium points,and sensitivity analysis.We included a stochastic element in every cohort and employed linear growth and Lipschitz criteria to show the existence and uniqueness of solutions.Several numerical simulations for various fractional orders and randomization intensities are illustrated.

Progressive fragmentation of granular assemblies within rockslides: Insights from discrete-continuous numerical modeling

Rock fragmentation plays a critical role in rock avalanches,yet conventional approaches such as classical granular flow models or the bonded particle model have limitations in accurately characterizing the progressive disintegration and kinematics of multi-deformable rock blocks during rockslides.The present study proposes a discrete-continuous numerical model,based on a cohesive zone model,to explicitly incorporate the progressive fragmentation and intricate interparticle interactions inherent in rockslides.Breakable rock granular assemblies are released along an inclined plane and flow onto a horizontal plane.The numerical scenarios are established to incorporate variations in slope angle,initial height,friction coefficient,and particle number.The evolutions of fragmentation,kinematic,runout and depositional characteristics are quantitatively analyzed and compared with experimental and field data.A positive linear relationship between the equivalent friction coefficient and the apparent friction coefficient is identified.In general,the granular mass predominantly exhibits characteristics of a dense granular flow,with the Savage number exhibiting a decreasing trend as the volume of mass increases.The process of particle breakage gradually occurs in a bottom-up manner,leading to a significant increase in the angular velocities of the rock blocks with increasing depth.The simulation results reproduce the field observations of inverse grading and source stratigraphy preservation in the deposit.We propose a disintegration index that incorporates factors such as drop height,rock mass volume,and rock strength.Our findings demonstrate a consistent linear relationship between this index and the fragmentation degree in all tested scenarios.

PAL-BERT:An Improved Question Answering Model

In the field of natural language processing(NLP),there have been various pre-training language models in recent years,with question answering systems gaining significant attention.However,as algorithms,data,and computing power advance,the issue of increasingly larger models and a growing number of parameters has surfaced.Consequently,model training has become more costly and less efficient.To enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the training process while reducing themodel volume,this paper proposes a first-order pruningmodel PAL-BERT based on the ALBERT model according to the characteristics of question-answering(QA)system and language model.Firstly,a first-order network pruning method based on the ALBERT model is designed,and the PAL-BERT model is formed.Then,the parameter optimization strategy of the PAL-BERT model is formulated,and the Mish function was used as an activation function instead of ReLU to improve the performance.Finally,after comparison experiments with traditional deep learning models TextCNN and BiLSTM,it is confirmed that PALBERT is a pruning model compression method that can significantly reduce training time and optimize training efficiency.Compared with traditional models,PAL-BERT significantly improves the NLP task’s performance.

Dynamics of Advantageous Mutant Spread in Spatial Death-Birth and Birth-Death Moran Models

The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.

An improved interval model updating method via adaptive Kriging models

Interval model updating(IMU)methods have been widely used in uncertain model updating due to their low requirements for sample data.However,the surrogate model in IMU methods mostly adopts the one-time construction method.This makes the accuracy of the surrogate model highly dependent on the experience of users and affects the accuracy of IMU methods.Therefore,an improved IMU method via the adaptive Kriging models is proposed.This method transforms the objective function of the IMU problem into two deterministic global optimization problems about the upper bound and the interval diameter through universal grey numbers.These optimization problems are addressed through the adaptive Kriging models and the particle swarm optimization(PSO)method to quantify the uncertain parameters,and the IMU is accomplished.During the construction of these adaptive Kriging models,the sample space is gridded according to sensitivity information.Local sampling is then performed in key subspaces based on the maximum mean square error(MMSE)criterion.The interval division coefficient and random sampling coefficient are adaptively adjusted without human interference until the model meets accuracy requirements.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example of a three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring system and an experimental example of a butted cylindrical shell.The results show that the updated results of the interval model are in good agreement with the experimental results.

The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

A detailed rock density model of the Hong Kong territories

We used the geological map and published rock density measurements to compile the digital rock density model for the Hong Kong territories.We then estimated the average density for the whole territory.According to our result,the rock density values in Hong Kong vary from 2101 to 2681 kg·m^(-3).These density values are typically smaller than the average density of 2670 kg·m^(-3),often adopted to represent the average density of the upper continental crust in physical geodesy and gravimetric geophysics applications.This finding reflects that the geological configuration in Hong Kong is mainly formed by light volcanic formations and lava flows with overlying sedimentary deposits at many locations,while the percentage of heavier metamorphic rocks is very low(less than 1%).This product will improve the accuracy of a detailed geoid model and orthometric heights.

基于24Model与csQCA的煤矿安全事故组态构型

煤矿安全事故对人身安全和周围环境构成严重威胁。为研究煤矿安全事故的致因因素构型,通过搜集、筛选出数据真实且事故原因明确的26起典型煤矿安全事故案例,利用24Model事故致因模型,从不安全行为、不安全物态、习惯性行为、安全管理体系以及安全文化5个维度提取煤矿安全事故致因因素,并通过清晰集定性比较分析(csQCA)方法对煤矿安全事故致因因素的组态构型进行了分析。结果表明:采用24Model与csQCA相结合的方法分析煤矿安全事故的组态构型,能够说明煤矿安全事故致因因素与事故之间存在多重并发因果关系,并存在6种典型的组态构型,可归纳为煤矿单位管理不严型、企业安全文化建设缺失型、工作人员安全意识淡薄型、组织安全行为异化型。根据各种组态构型的特点剖析煤矿安全事故的发生机制,可为煤矿安全生产和管理工作提供对策和建议,以保障煤矿行业安全和推动经济发展。

Parameter calibration of the tensile-shear interactive damage constitutive model for sandstone failure

The tensile-shear interactive damage(TSID)model is a novel and powerful constitutive model for rock-like materials.This study proposes a methodology to calibrate the TSID model parameters to simulate sandstone.The basic parameters of sandstone are determined through a series of static and dynamic tests,including uniaxial compression,Brazilian disc,triaxial compression under varying confining pressures,hydrostatic compression,and dynamic compression and tensile tests with a split Hopkinson pressure bar.Based on the sandstone test results from this study and previous research,a step-by-step procedure for parameter calibration is outlined,which accounts for the categories of the strength surface,equation of state(EOS),strain rate effect,and damage.The calibrated parameters are verified through numerical tests that correspond to the experimental loading conditions.Consistency between numerical results and experimental data indicates the precision and reliability of the calibrated parameters.The methodology presented in this study is scientifically sound,straightforward,and essential for improving the TSID model.Furthermore,it has the potential to contribute to other rock constitutive models,particularly new user-defined models.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.