A Lane Change Model Considering the Stability of Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control Platoon Fleet

In this article,lane change models for mixed traffic flow under cooperative adaptive cruise control(CACC)platoon formation are established.The analysis begins by examining the impact of lane changes on traffic flow stability.The influences of various factors such as lane change locations,timing,and the current traffic state on stability are discussed.In this analysis,it is assumed that the lane change location and the entry position in the adjacent lane have already been selected,without considering the specific intention behind the lane change.The speeds of the involved vehicles are adjusted based on an existing lane change model,and various conditions are analyzed for traffic flow disturbances,including duration,shock amplitude,and driving delays.Numerical calculations are provided to illustrate these effects.Additionally,traffic flow stability is factored into the lane change decision-making process.By incorporating disturbances to the fleet into the lane change income model,both a lane change intention model and a lane change execution model are constructed.These models are then compared with a model that does not account for stability,leading to the corresponding conclusions.

Modelling,Validation,and Calculations of Stratospheric Ozone Dynamics and Latitudinal Changes

This paper presents an engineering system approach of 2-D cylindrical model of mass balance calculations with convection,diffusion,and all potential photolysis,ozone generating and depleting chemical reactions considered.This model was developed,validated,and tested under different conditions for the stratospheric ozone.The calculated ozone concentrations and profile in the stratosphere at both the Equator and mid-latitudinal location of 40°S were found to exhibit a similar and close profile and peak value of the published measured data.The discrepancy between the calculations and measurements for the average ozone concentration was shown to be less than 1%and the variation of distributions to be less than 19%.The latitudinal changes of ozone concentrations,distribution,and peak of the layer were found to shift from 9.41 ppm at mid-altitude of z=30 km at the Equator,to 7.81 ppm at z=34.5 km at 40°S,to 5.78 ppm at higher altitude z=39 km at the South Pole.The total ozone abundances at strategic latitudes at 0°S,20°S,40°S,60°S,and 90°S,were found to remain stable and not much changed,from 305 DU to 335 DU,except a smaller value of 288 DU at the South Pole.The possible explanations of ozone profile change and peak shifting as affected by solar/UV radiation,latitudinal locations,and ozone-depleting reactions were discussed and elaborated.The 2-D ozone Model presented in this paper is a robust,efficient,executable,and validated model for studying the complex ozone phenomena in the stratosphere.

Application of Land-use Change Model in Guiding Regional Planning:A Case Study in Hun-Taizi River Watershed,Northeast China

This paper firstly investigated the land-use and land-cover change （LUCC） in the Hun-Taizi River water- shed, Northeast China from 1988 to 2004 based on remotely sensed images and geographic information systems （GIS） technology. Then, using the famous land-use change model of Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small re- gional extent （CLUE-S）, this paper simulated the land use changes under historical trend （HT）, urban planning （UP） and ecological protection （EP） scenarios considering urban planning and ecological protection over the next 20 years. The simulated results under UP scenario in 2020 were compared with the planning map to assess the feasibility of us- ing land-use change model to guide regional planning. Results show that forest land, dry farmland, paddy, and shrub land were the main land-use categories. Paddy and dry farmland being converted to urban area and rural settlement characterized the land-use change from 1988 to 2004. The main land-use categories changed over time. Landscape-pattem fragmentation will be worse under HT and UP scenarios, but better in EP scenario. The comparing results of simulated map with planning map in 2020 show that land-use change model is powerful tool to guide regional planning. Land-use scenarios can support regional planning and policy-making through analyzing future consequences scientifically.

Assessment of wetland fragmentation in the middle reaches of the Heihe River by the type change tracker model

The quantitative research of wetland landscape fragmentation in the middle reaches of the Heihe River is important for the wetland and oasis sustainable development in the Hexi Corridor. Based on the data of remote sensing and GIS, we constructed the type change tracker model with sliding window technique and spatially mor- phological rule. The suitable scale and optimum scale of the fragmentation model of wetland landscape in the middle reaches of the Heihe River were determined by the area frequency statistics method, Chi-square distribution normal- ized scale variance, fractal dimension and diversity index. By integrating type change tracker model and the optimum scale with GIS spatial analysis, the spatial distribution characteristics of wetland landscape fragmentation in different periods and the related spatial-temporal change process were clarified. The results showed that （1） the type change tracker model, which analyzes the spatial pattern of wetland fragmentation on the pixel level, is better than the tradi- tional wetland fragmentation analysis on the landscape and patch levels; （2） The suitable scale for the wetland frag- mentation ranged from 150 rex150 m to 450 mx450 m and the optimum scale was 250 mx250 m in the middle reaches of the Heihe River; and （3） In the past 35 years, the total wetland area decreased by 23.2% and the frag- mentatJon of wetland markedly increased in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. The areas of core wetlands re- duced by 12.8% and the areas of perforated, edge and patch wetlands increased by 0.8%, 3.1% and 8.9%, respec- tively. The process of wetland fragmentation in the research region showed the order of core wetland, perforated or edge wetland, patch wetland or non-wetland. The results of this study would provide a reference for the protection, utilization and restoration of limited wetland resources and for the sustainable development of the regional eco-environment in the Heihe River Basin.

Climate change in the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains based on GCM simulation ensemble with Bayesian model averaging

Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21^（st） century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains（TKM） based on the general circulation model（GCM） simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5） under the representative concentration pathway（RCP） lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging（BMA） technique. Results show that（1） BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;（2） at the end of the 21^（st） century（2070–2099） under RCP8.5, compared to the control period（1976–2005）, annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;（3） precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and（4） snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease.

Three-Dimensional Simulations of RESET Operation in Phase-Change Random Access Memory with Blade-Type Like Phase Change Layer by Finite Element Modeling

An optimized device structure for reducing the RESET current of phase-change random access memory （PCRAM） with blade-type like （BTL） phase change layer is proposed. The electrical thermal analysis of the BTL cell and the blade heater contactor structure by three-dimensional finite element modeling are compared with each other during RESET operation. The simulation results show that the programming region of the phase change layer in the BTL cell is much smaller, and thermal electrical distributions of the BTL cell are more concentrated on the TiN/GST interface. The results indicate that the BTL cell has the superiorities of increasing the heating efficiency, decreasing the power consumption and reducing the RESET current from 0.67mA to 0.32mA. Therefore, the BTL cell will be appropriate for high performance PCRAM device with lower power consumption and lower RESET current.

Driving forces behind the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of land-use and land-cover change:A case study of the Weihe River Basin,China

The impact of socioeconomic development on land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)in river basins varies spatially and temporally.Exploring the spatiotemporal evolutionary trends and drivers of LUCC under regional disparities is the basis for the sustainable development and management of basins.In this study,the Weihe River Basin(WRB)in China was selected as a typical basin,and the WRB was divided into the upstream of the Weihe River Basin(UWRB),the midstream of the Weihe River Basin(MWRB),the downstream of the Weihe River Basin(DWRB),the Jinghe River Basin(JRB),and the Luohe River Basin(LRB).Based on land-use data(cultivated land,forestland,grassland,built-up land,bare land,and water body)from 1985 to 2020,we analyzed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of LUCC in the WRB using a land-use transfer matrix and a dynamic change model.The driving forces of LUCC in the WRB in different periods were detected using the GeoDetector,and the selected influencing factors included meteorological factors(precipitation and temperature),natural factors(elevation,slope,soil,and distance to rivers),social factors(distance to national highway,distance to railway,distance to provincial highway,and distance to expressway),and human activity factors(population density and gross domestic product(GDP)).The results indicated that the types and intensities of LUCC conversions showed considerable disparities across different sub-basins,where complex conversions among cultivated land,forestland,and grassland occurred in the LRB,JRB,and UWRB,with higher dynamic change before 2000.The conversion of other land-use types to built-up land was concentrated in the UWRB,MWRB,and DWRB,with substantial increases after 2000.Additionally,the driving effects of the influencing factors on LUCC in each sub-basin also exhibited distinct diversity,with the LRB and JRB being influenced by the meteorological and social factors,and the UWRB,MWRB,and DWRB being driven by human activity factors.Moreover,the interaction of these influencing factors indicated an enhanced effect on LUCC.This study confirmed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity effects of socioeconomic status on LUCC in the WRB under regional differences,contributing to the sustainable development of the whole basin by managing sub-basins according to local conditions.

A GRADIENT ANALYSIS & MODELING OF THE NECT FOR GLOBAL CHANGE STUDY

The North East China Transect (NECT) is an exemplary region of landmass running along the line of 43°30′ North Latitude and caught between 112° and 130°30′ East Longtitude, and is being sampled by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) for today’s study on global change. So far, it has already been listed in the first set of IGBP-sponsored transects, becoming a key theatre and "hot spot" for probing terrestrial ecosystems. In terms of biota, the nearly 1,600-kilometre-long tract is located in a mid-latitude zone, featuring a vegetational transition from a temperate timberland of evergreen coniferous forests and broadleaved deciduous forests to a mild-temperate steppe. According to the norms of biome types, it consists of three subzones: meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe in a continuous east-to-west spatial sequence. There are four ecological stations supported by a great number of permanent samples, long-term plots and an enormous build-up of experimental data along

A Strategy and Model of Change for SMEs in the Hong Kong Manufacturing Industry

The re-establishment of the Hong Kong manufacturin g industry as a local pillar of economy is vital in the restructuring of the e conomy in Hong Kong. The SMEs should play a key role in such a process. It requi res major changes to take place in the operation of the enterprises in order to enhance their competitiveness and therefore the chance of success in the restruc turing process. It is suggested that the strategy of going for high value-added products and related services together with the practice of "focused factory" s hould be adopted by the SMEs in the industry. Effective change management by the top managers and owners in the SMEs is an underpinning element for the success. Basing upon the characteristics of the SMEs in the industry, a model of change is proposed. The roles that should be played by the top management and owners in the industry are suggested and discussed. It is believe that the proposal and s uggestions made would help the industry to effectively manage the changes that a re necessary for the industry to shape the competitiveness of the industry in th e world arena in future.

On the Liquid-Vapor Phase-Change Interface Conditions for Numerical Simulation of Violent Separated Flows

Numerous models have been proposed in the literature to include phase change into numerical simulations of two-phase flows.This review paper presents the modeling options that have been taken in order to obtain a model for violent separated flows with application to sloshing wave impacts.A relaxation model based on linear non-equilibrium thermodynamics has been chosen to compute the rate of phase change.The integration in the system of partial differential equations is done through a non-conservative advection term.For each of these modelling choices,some alternative models from the literature are presented and discussed.The theoretical framework for all phase change model(conservation equations and entropy growth)is also summarized.

Modelling the January and July Climate of 9000 Years before Present

The January and July climate of 9000 years before present was simulated through a set of perpetual experimentsby means of the newly designed 9 Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) in the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). The results were analysed and compared with previous results simulated by the IAP 2Level AGCM. There exists good agreement between them. It is found that the temperature is higher in July and lower inJanuary in 9000 yBP than that at present. The temperature difference is more obvious in the Northern Hemispherethan in the Southern Hemisphere and greater in July than in January. These results prove the potential abilities of theg-L AGCM in the climate simulation and climate prediction.

Impact of Increasing Stratospheric Water Vapor on Ozone Depletion and Temperature Change

Using a detailed, fully coupled chemistry climate model （CCM）, the effect of increasing stratospheric H20 on ozone and temperature is investigated. Different CCM time-slice runs have been performed to investigate the chemical and radiative impacts of an assumed 2 ppmv increase in H20. The chemical effects of this H20 increase lead to an overall decrease of the total column ozone （TCO） by ～1% in the tropics and by a maximum of 12% at southern high latitudes. At northern high latitudes, the TCO is increased by only up to 5% due to stronger transport in the Arctic. A 2-ppmv H2O increase in the model＇s radiation scheme causes a cooling of the tropical stratosphere of no more than 2 K, but a cooling of more than 4 K at high latitudes. Consequently, the TCO is increased by about 2%-6%. Increasing stratospheric H2O, therefore, cools the stratosphere both directly and indirectly, except in the polar regions where the temperature responds differently due to feedbacks between ozone and H2O changes. The combined chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O may give rise to more cooling in the tropics and middle latitudes but less cooling in the polar stratosphere. The combined effects of H2O increases on ozone tend to offset each other, except in the Arctic stratosphere where both the radiative and chemical impacts give rise to increased ozone. The chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O cause dynamical responses in the stratosphere with an evident hemispheric asymmetry. In terms of ozone recovery, increasing the stratospheric H2O is likely to accelerate the recovery in the northern high latitudes and delay it in the southern high latitudes. The modeled ozone recovery is more significant between 2000 ～2050 than between 2050～2100, driven mainly by the larger relative change in chlorine in the earlier period.

Developed and Developing World Contributions to Climate System Change Based on Carbon Dioxide,Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions

One of the key issues in international climate negotiations is the formulation of targets for emissions reduction for all countries based on the principle of ＂common but differentiated responsibilities＂. This formulation depends primarily on the quantitative attribution of the responsibilities of developed and developing countries for historical climate change. Using the Commuity Earth System Model（CESM）, we estimate the responsibilities of developed countries and developing countries for climatic change from 1850 to 2005 using their carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that developed countries contribute approximately 53%–61%, and developing countries approximately 39%–47%, to the increase in global air temperature, upper oceanic warming, sea-ice reduction in the NH, and permafrost degradation. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of these changes from 1850 to 2005 is primarily attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases（GHGs）in developed countries. Although uncertainties remain in the climate model and the external forcings used, GHG emissions in developed countries are the major contributor to the observed climate system changes in the 20 th century.

A car-following model with the anticipation effect of potential lane changing

In this paper, a new car-following model is presented, taking into account the anticipation of potential lane changing by the leading vehicle. The stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The modified Korteweg-de Vries （KdV） equation is constructed and solved, and three types of traffic flow in the headway-sensitivity space, namely stable, metastable and unstable ones, are classified. Both the analytical and simu- lation results show that anxiety about lane changing does indeed have an influence on driving behavior and that a consideration of lane changing probability in the car-following model could stabilize traffic flows. The quantitative relationship between stability improvement and lane changing probability is also investigated.

Incorporating shape constraints in generalized additive modelling of the height-diameter relationship for Norway spruce

Background： Measurements of tree heights and diameters are essential in forest assessment and modelling. Tree heights are used for estimating timber volume, site index and other important variables related to forest growth and yield, succession and carbon budget models. However, the diameter at breast height （dbh） can be more accurately obtained and at lower cost, than total tree height. Hence, generalized height-diameter （h-d） models that predict tree height from dbh, age and other covariates are needed. For a more flexible but biologically plausible estimation of covariate effects we use shape constrained generalized additive models as an extension of existing h-d model approaches. We use causal site parameters such as index of aridity to enhance the generality and causality of the models and to enable predictions under projected changeable climatic conditions. Methods： We develop unconstrained generalized additive models （GAM） and shape constrained generalized additive models （SCAM） for investigating the possible effects of tree-specific parameters such as tree age, relative diameter at breast height, and site-specific parameters such as index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature during vegetation period, on the h-d relationship of forests in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results： Some of the derived effects, e.g. effects of age, index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature have significantly non-linear pattern. The need for using SCAM results from the fact that some of the model effects show partially implausible patterns especially at the boundaries of data ranges. The derived model predicts monotonically increasing levels of tree height with increasing age and temperature sum and decreasing aridity and social rank of a tree within a stand, The definition of constraints leads only to marginal or minor decline in the model statistics like AIC An observed structured spatial trend in tree height is modelled via 2-dimensional surface fitting. Conclusions： We demonstrate that the SCAM approach allows optimal regression modelling flexibility similar to the standard GAM but with the additional possibility of defining specific constraints for the model effects. The longitudinal character of the model allows for tree height imputation for the current status of forests but also for future tree height prediction.

Effect of climate change on seasonal water use efficiency in subalpine Abies fabri

Abies fabri is a typical subalpine dark coniferous forest in southwestern China. Air temperature increases more at high elevation areas than that at low elevation areas in mountainous regions,and climate change ratio is also uneven in different seasons. Carbon gain and the response of water use efficiency(WUE) to annual and seasonal increases in temperature with or without CO_2 fertilization were simulated in Abies fabri using the atmospheric-vegetation interaction model(AVIM2). Four future climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) were selectively investigated. The results showed that warmer temperatures have negative effects on gross primary production(GPP) and net primary production(NPP) in growing seasons and positive effects in dormant seasons due to the variation in the leaf area index. Warmer temperatures tend to generate lower canopy WUE and higher ecosystem WUE in Abies fabri. However,warmer temperature together with rising CO_2 concentrations significantlyincrease the GPP and NPP in both growing and dormant seasons and enhance WUE in annual and dormant seasons because of the higher leaf area index(LAI) and soil temperature. The comparison of the simulated results with and without CO_2 fertilization shows that CO_2 has the potential to partially alleviate the adverse effects of climate warming on carbon gain and WUE in subalpine coniferous forests.

Application and comparison of coaxial correlation diagram and hydrological model for reconstructing flood series under human disturbance

Intense human activities have greatly changed the flood generation conditions in most areas of the world, and have destroyed the consistency in the annual flood peak and volume series. For design flood estimation, coaxial correlation diagram and conceptual hydrological model are two frequently used tools to adjust and reconstruct the flood series under human disturbance. This study took a typical mountain catchment of the Haihe River Basin as an example to investigate the effects of human activities on flood regime and to compare and assess the two adjustment methods. The main purpose is to construct a conceptual hydrological model which can incorporate the effects of human activities. The results show that the coaxial correlation diagram is simple and widely-used, but can only adjust the time series of total flood volumes. Therefore, it is only applicable under certain conditions(e.g. There is a strong link between the flood peaks and volumes and the link is not significantly affected by human activities). The conceptual model is a powerful tool to adjust the time series of both flood peak flows and flood volumes over different durations provided that it is closely related to the catchment hydrological characteristics, specifically accounting for the effects of human activities, and incorporating expert knowledge when estimating or calibrating parameters. It is suggested that the two methods should be used together to cross check each other.

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

With rapid economic development and urba- nization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model （GLOBFOOD） and regional spatial allocation model （CLUE）. The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge abot^t the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socio- economic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

Evaluation of Automatic Lane-Change Model Based on Vehicle Cluster Generalized Dynamic System

The lane-change transportation research usually focuses on the efficiency and stability of the macro traffic flow while ignoring the driving comfort of individual vehicles.And many studies of lane-change models are often limited to the performance of a single vehicle,which leads to a lack of macroscopic evaluation.To solve the above limitations,an automatic lane-change generalized dynamic model is adopted.In this model,the lane-change behavior of an individual vehicle is considered as the generalized excitation and the restraining force between vehicles is described with the car-following model.Macro and micro evaluation indexes are also adopted to evaluate the automatic lane-change behavior in traffic flow.Furthermore,this paper proposes a modified intelligent driver model(IDM)to describe the state change process during lane change.The hyperbolic tangent transition function is used to eliminate the vehicle state mutation.The simulation results show that the proposed automatic lane-change generalized dynamic model can reflect the macro and micro parameters of the traffic flow.And compared with the traditional IDM model,the proposed HC-IDM model achieves higher comfort performance and lower fluctuation of traffic flow.

Contributions of anthropogenic and external natural forcings to climate changes over China based on CMIP5 model simulations

Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols(AAs), and land use(LU)) and external natural forcings(Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%–99% of the observed temperature change from 1951–1975 to 1981–2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2–3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%–78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960 s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970 s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China.