Finite element modeling of pore-fluid flow in the Dachang ore district,Guangxi,China:Implications for hydrothermal mineralization

Convective heat transfer associated with the circulation of porefluid in porous rocks and fractures within the upper crust of the Earth is substantial when the temperature gradient is sufficiently high. In order to understand the process of Snpolymetallic mineralization in the Dachang ore district of Guangxi, a finite element method has been used in this study to simulate both pore-fluid flow and heat transfer in this district. On the basis of related geological, tectonic and geophysical constraints, a computational model was established. It enables a computational simulation and sensitivity analysis to be carried out for investigating ore-forming pore-fluid flow and other key factors that may affect hydrothermal ore genesis in the district. The related simulation results have indicated that： （1） permeable fault zones in the Dacbang ore district can serve as preferential pathways for pore-fluid flow on a regional-scale; and （2） the pore-fluid flow can affect the salinity distribution. This latter factor is part of the reason why Sn-polymetallic mineralization has taken place in this district.

Land use scenario simulation of mountainous districts based on Dinamica EGO model

Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.

Statistical Modeling of Malaria Incidences in Apac District, Uganda

Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Apac district, Northern Uganda. Hence, the study aimed to model malaria incidences with respect to climate variables for the period 2007 to 2016 in Apac district. Data on monthly malaria incidence in Apac district for the period January 2007 to December 2016 was obtained from the Ministry of health, Uganda whereas climate data was obtained from Uganda National Meteorological Authority. Generalized linear models, Poisson and negative binomial regression models were employed to analyze the data. These models were used to fit monthly malaria incidences as a function of monthly rainfall and average temperature. Negative binomial model provided a better fit as compared to the Poisson regression model as indicated by the residual plots and residual deviances. The Pearson correlation test indicated a strong positive association between rainfall and malaria incidences. High malaria incidences were observed in the months of August, September and November. This study showed a significant association between monthly malaria incidence and climate variables that is rainfall and temperature. This study provided useful information for predicting malaria incidence and developing the future warning system. This is an important tool for policy makers to put in place effective control measures for malaria early enough.

Genetic Types and Metallogenic Model for the Polymetallic Copper–Gold Deposits in the Tongling Ore District, Anhui Province, Eastern China

The Tongling ore district is one of the most economically important ore areas in the Middle–Lower Yangtze River Metallogenic Belt, eastern China. It contains hundreds of polymetallic copper–gold deposits and occurrences. Those deposits are mainly clustered(from west to east) within the Tongguanshan, Shizishan, Xinqiao, Fenghuangshan, and Shatanjiao orefields. Until recently, the majority of these deposits were thought to be skarn-or porphyry–skarn-type deposits; however there have been recent discoveries of numerous vein-type Au, Ag, and Pb-Zn deposits that do not fall into either of these categories. This indicates that there is some uncertainty over this classification. Here, we present the results of several systematic geological studies of representative deposits in the Tongling ore district. From investigation of the ore-controlling structures, lithology of the host rock, mineral assemblages, and the characteristics of the mineralization and alteration within these deposits, three genetic types of deposits(skarn-, porphyry-, and vein-type deposits) have been identified. The spatial and temporal relationships between the orebodies and Yanshanian intrusions combined with the sources of the ore-forming fluids and metals, as well as the geodynamic setting of this ore district, indicate that all three deposit types are genetically related each other and constitute a magmatic–hydrothermal system. This study outlines a model that relates the polymetallic copper–gold porphyry-, skarn-, and vein-type deposits within the Tongling ore district. This model provides a theoretical basis to guide exploration for deep-seated and concealed porphyry-type Cu(–Mo, –Au) deposits as well as shallow vein-type Au, Ag, and Pb–Zn deposits in this area and elsewhere.

AN AIR POLLUTION PREDICTION TECHNIQUE FOR URBAN DISTRICTS BASED ON MESO-SCALE NUMERICAL MODEL

Taking Shenzhen city as an example, the statistical and physical relationship between the density of pollutants and various atmospheric parameters are analyzed in detail, and a space-partitioned city air pollution potential prediction scheme is established based on it. The scheme considers quantitatively more than ten factors at the surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL), especially the effects of anisotropy of geographical environment, and treats wind direction as an independent impact factor. While the scheme treats the prediction equation respectively for different pollutants according to their differences in dilute properties, it considers as well the possible differences in dilute properties at different districts of the city under the same atmospheric condition, treating predictions respectively for different districts. Finally, the temporally and spatially high resolution predictions for the atmospheric factors are made with a high resolution numerical model, and further the space-partitioned and time-variational city pollution potential predictions are made. The scheme is objective and quantitative, and with clear physical meaning, so it is suitable to use in making high resolution air pollution predictions.

Occurrence Regularity and Prediction Model of Underground Pest Adults in Hangzhou District of China

To improve forecasting and sustained control level of underground pests, trapping quantity of underground pests （black cutworm,mole cricket and scar-ab） by lamps and their field dynamics in Hangzhou district from 2005 to 2011 were investigated in the paper. The results showed that different pests had obvious differences in population dynamic. The black cutworm （Agrotis ypsilon） had several damage peaks （late May, late June and late July） and the moth amount in early period was relatively high. The mole cricket （ Gryllotalpa africana） had two damage peaks （late May to early July, early September to mid and late October）. The scarab （Anomala corpulenta） had one damage peak （late May to late June）. There were periodic changes in total quantity of underground pests among years, and the peak period appeared in the year of 2005, 2007 to 2009 and 2011, respectively. On this basis, temperature, humidity, rainfall and light were used as forecas- ting factors, using the method of stepwise regression, 19 factors with significant correlation were screened out and prediction models for occurrence quantity and oc- currence period of the three pests were established. By using accuracy degree judge model for verification, the score values of prediction model for occurrence quan-tity and occurrence period of the three underground pests were more than 58 and 70, which indicated that the historical coincident rate and prediction accuracy of estabhshed prediction models were good.

基于动态稳定性验证和CA-Markov预测的耕地时空演变特征--以赣榆区为例

为阐明耕地变化动态稳定性验证的重要性,预测“十四五”目标年(2025年)与远景目标年(2035年)的耕地变化,本研究运用耕地面积变异系数、地理集中指数、不平衡指数及趋势分析法,从耕地数量、空间分布与空间发展趋势三个方面,对江苏省连云港市赣榆区耕地变化的动态稳定性进行验证,并运用CA-Markov模型对未来不同政策情境下的耕地变化情况进行模拟。结果表明,2009-2016年赣榆区耕地总量持续下降,未存在较大反复与波动,耕地空间分布较为均衡,耕地占用与补充的空间发展趋势较为连续,总体上具有较高的动态稳定性,符合运用CA-Markov模型的前提条件。预测在各种政策情境下,2025年之前赣榆区将经历快速的耕地非农化过程,至2035年耕地减少的速率有所放缓,具有区位优势的赣榆北部地区将是未来耕地非农化的重点区域,耕地将逐渐向南部内陆地区转移。研究表明,对耕地变化的动态稳定性进行验证可以有效保证CA-Markov模型的模拟精度,赣榆区未来的耕地保护形势不容乐观,应合理协调经济发展与耕地保护之间的关系,保障社会、生态与粮食安全。

基于MWatNet模型的河套灌区解放闸灌域灌溉水体提取

为提高灌溉农田中灌溉水体的识别精度,以河套灌区解放闸灌域作为研究区,基于Sentinel-2遥感影像,结合灌区实际情况对地表水体提取模型(WatNet)进行改进,得到MWatNet模型并提取灌溉水体。采用总体精度(Overall accuracy,OA)、平均交并比(Mean intersection over union,MIoU)、F1值等水体提取精度指标进行综合评价。结果表明:改进后的地表水体提取模型(MWatNet)在解放闸灌域农田灌溉水体的提取上具有较好的识别精度,模型总体精度达到96%,平均交并比达到83%,F1值为80%,实地调研验证准确度为85.7%;对比原WatNet、水体语义分割模型(Deeplabv3_plus)和水体提取模型(Deepwatermapv2),MWatNet在灌溉水体提取的连结性、剔除道路和城镇干扰等方面,均表现出更好的效果和模型运行效率。利用该模型可以实现灌溉水体定量化表征,为灌溉用水调度提供了数据支撑。

基于PSR模型的城市河流湿地生态健康评价——以苏州市姑苏区为例

城市河流湿地的生态健康是城市生态可持续的重要基础。本研究以苏州市姑苏区河流湿地为研究对象,运用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法评价其河流湿地健康状况。结果表明:苏州市姑苏区河流湿地的生态健康状况处于“中等”等级,接近“亚健康”状态;准则层的排序权重为状态层指标>压力层指标>响应层指标,说明状态层指标能直观反映河流湿地的健康状态,其状态层的综合健康指数为0.658;各河段健康状态与其所对应的城市流域所承受的压力存在着密切联系,城市的建设强度和植被覆盖率因素对姑苏区河流湿地的健康状态具有显著影响。

历史文化街区研究的PEST分析及更新策略建议

为了留存城市文化脉络,提出更行之有效的历史文化街区更新策略,以中国知网(CNKI)为数据来源,综合运用PEST模型和文献计量分析方法,综述历史文化街区的研究现状,为开展相关工作提供可借鉴的理论依据。通过在中国知网中检索“历史文化街区”的相关研究文献,从政治、经济、社会、技术4个维度出发,运用文献可视化分析软件对筛选出的文献进行关键词聚类分析,梳理研究热点和重点,总结得出我国历史文化街区保护工作应形成以政府为主导,社会、企业、民众多元参与的有机协调模式,坚持“原真性”修复原则,提高建筑应对灾害的能力,让历史文化街区焕发新的生机与活力。

淠史杭灌区干旱推演及抗旱预案调控研究

水资源干旱是限制灌区可持续发展的关键因素。为提高灌区的干旱防治能力,使其更好的发挥其在节水、减灾方面的作用,以淠史杭灌区为研究区,通过划分水资源配置子单元和设置调蓄节点,采用公平性最优和供水缺水率最小作为目标函数,总量控制、供水能力、分质供水等作为约束条件,采用基于精英策略的非支配遗传改进算法求解,构建区域General Water Allocation and Simulation Model(GWAS)模型;以2022年为现状基准年,与2023规划年组合,分为连续干旱与不连续干旱两大类,基于灌区水资源“应急干旱三次平衡”调控思想,分析灌区水资源在不同干旱情景下缺水的基础上,展开水资源抗旱配置研究,推演分析不同抗旱方案下水资源供需平衡情况。结果表明:连续干旱年中,灌区2023规划年在情景Ⅰ(P=90%)、情景Ⅱ(P=80%)来水频率下,各乡镇配置单元均存在不同程度的缺水情况,区域总缺水率分别为35.1%、20.8%;不连续干旱年中,2023规划年在情景Ⅲ(P=50%)来水频率下,模型基准配置水量基本可以满足区域各乡镇水量需求,区域总缺水率为5.9%。经不同抗旱方案尾部泵站补水、调整作物种植结构及外调水的优化配置后,三种情景下区域总缺水率最终都降为0%,优化后各配置单元供水改善效果显著。研究成果可为淠史杭灌区未来在应对不同干旱类型情景下水资源的合理调整提供技术支撑,并且可为实现该区域水资源统一管理和水量的统一调配提供理论依据。

住宅小区理想规模的模型探究——基于共有空间社会密度的视角

住宅小区内共有空间的社会密度会对居民间的邻里交往产生显著影响。为保证住宅小区共有空间资源的数量和品质,在第Ⅲ建筑气候区条件下建立小区模型,对不同类型小区的共有空间进行分析。结果显示,随着小区内建筑平均层数的增加,户均共有空间资源的数量逐渐减少,共有空间的品质在空间尺度、围合度、私密性等维度上显著降低。基于模型研究结果和城市对土地利用的要求,进而提出住宅小区的理想规模为3~4 hm2,住宅平均层数宜为5~8层,而当确有需要建设高层住宅时,住宅平均层数也不宜超过14层。

基于改进潜能模型的城市公园绿地可达性评价与优化布局研究——以重庆市江津区为例

城市公园绿地空间布局因城市的自然条件和社会经济条件不同而具有差异性.当前国内外研究多聚焦发达地区和大城市,而小城市和典型城市的公园绿地可达性研究鲜见,且在案例代表性和数据精度方面还有一定的局限性.选择西南山地类型的重庆市江津区中心城区为案例,以居民小区出入口与公园绿地出入口为研究主体,构建改进潜能模型和网络分析方法,揭示其空间特征和存在问题,参考位置分配模型与调研结果,得出优化布局方案并检验.结果表明,江津区中心城区城市公园绿地布局与服务水平空间差异明显.提出拟新建7个游园与5个社区公园,并将部分公园绿地进行合并扩建或新增出入口.

融入功能分区的土地利用变化多情景模拟——以福建南平市建阳区为例

土地利用变化多情景模拟是合理配置土地资源的重要依据。已有研究通常聚焦于省级、城市群等较大尺度区域,较少关注南方山区城镇土地利用变化及其面临的生态安全约束。本文以福建省南平市建阳区为研究区,应用RSEI-MCR-PLUS耦合模型,将生态约束下的土地功能分区融入土地利用变化模拟,分析惯性发展、经济发展优先、生态保护优先、可持续发展四种情景下2030年建阳区土地利用空间格局。结果表明:(1)建阳区内适宜开发区、缓冲开发区、限制开发区、生态缓冲区和生态保护区面积占比分别为3.17%、27.94%、26.73%、25.68%和16.48%,各功能区以适宜开发区为中心空间上呈环状分布。(2)惯性发展情景下,建设用地呈现多点扩散,土地资源利用效率相对低下;经济发展优先情景下,新增建设用地侵占林地和耕地,加剧空间冲突;生态保护优先情景下,土地资源利用效率低下,并限制经济快速发展;可持续发展情景下,建设用地呈组团式发展,生态系统得到保护,土地资源配置更为合理。本成果可为合理配置土地资源、优化山区国土空间开发保护格局提供科学参考。

集体经营性建设用地入市农户满意度影响因素研究——基于Logistic-ISM模型的分析

农户满意程度可以反映政策改革成效,探究农户集体经营性建设用地入市满意度影响因素,有助于评价政策实施效果,同时对提升农村发展和农民幸福感也有一定的现实意义.采用问卷调查和访谈的方式,选取重庆市大足区作为研究区域,基于Logistic模型确定农户满意度的影响因素,结合ISM模型分析各影响因素之间的层次关系,对农民的政策实施满意度影响因素进行实证分析.研究结果显示:(1)针对入市实施效果,绝大部分农户持满意态度,不满意的地方集中在收益分配不及时和环境污染方面;(2)家中是否有村干部、生态环境变化情况、是否参与表决、分配公平性、入市实际收益、程序透明性、入市风险存在情况、对入市土地所有者的认知对入市农户满意度有显著影响.其中对入市土地所有者的认知、入市风险存在情况、入市实际收益为表层直接因素,中层间接因素有生态环境变化情况、是否参与表决、分配公平性以及程序透明性,家中是否有村干部为深层根源因素.应进一步完善土地产权制度,明晰入市到期后土地权属问题;健全监督管理机制,建立集体经营性建设用地入市单位的产业目录和准入标准制度;完善收益分配机制,制定集体土地入市指导性分配意见;将村集体负责人纳入政府基层领导队伍体系,提高程序透明性.

交口灌区农业水土资源承载力评价及障碍因子诊断

【目的】评价交口灌区农业水土资源承载力及其障碍因子。【方法】以交口灌区为研究对象,构建包括水土资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个准则层的水土资源承载力评价指标体系,采用组合赋权的TOPSIS模型对交口灌区水土资源承载力进行综合评价,采用障碍度模型诊断制约灌区农业水土资源承载力的主要障碍因子。【结果】2016—2020年,交口灌区水土资源承载力呈稳步提升态势,各区、县的水土资源承载力差距逐渐缩小;灌区不同区、县的水土资源承载力水平差异显著,灌区北部承载力水平高于灌区南部,各区、县承载力指数介于0.257~0.621;水土资源和生态环境系统中的单位耕地农药施用量、水土资源匹配系数、单位耕地施肥量、垦殖率、生态环境用水率、水资源开发利用率是制约交口灌区水土资源承载力提升的主要障碍因子。【结论】水土资源和生态环境是影响灌区水土资源承载力的关键要素,灌区应以可持续发展理论为导向,注重农业发展与生态保护并重,综合提升灌区承载力。

以WEP为基础的寒区田间水循环模拟分析——以青冈县为例

水循环系统是自然界最重要的物质循环之一,构建区域水循环系统是合理调配水资源的重要方法。黑龙江省是我国重要的粮食生产地区,随着我国新一轮振兴东北计划的实行,对于地区水资源的保障提出了更高的要求。文中使用WEP模型软件对黑龙江省青冈县进行自然水循环的模拟分析,使用2018-2022年的逐月统计数据建立模型,对建立后的模型进行验证分析,结果显示水资源总量5年内增加了8.83%,农田土壤的最大冻结深度降低了29%;土壤的含水量同比增加了6.8%,地下水总量保持稳定,2021和2022年的地下水受降雨的影响减小。综上,该地区水资源总量相对稳定,土壤冻结深度对于土壤含水量影响较大,随着冻结层厚度的减少,土壤含水量随之增加,土壤含水层厚度增加,导致地表水受降水量的影响效果降低,使地下水含量变得稳定。

基于地下水均衡模型的河套灌区地下水补给排泄量分析

【目的】多灌少排的灌溉制度导致河套灌区地下水位上升,土壤盐碱化问题突出,模拟分析地下水补给排泄过程能够增进对河套灌区地下水变化过程的理解。【方法】建立考虑排水过程的生育期-冻融期地下水均衡模型,分别采用LH-OAT算法和ES-MDA算法进行参数敏感性分析和参数率定,并应用在河套灌区义长灌域。【结果】地下水均衡模型中地下水埋深对潜水蒸发极限埋深、潜水蒸发系数、灌溉水补给系数敏感。模型在河套灌区应用精度良好,能够充分反映灌域地下水埋深和地下水排水量的变化过程。对灌域地下水补给排泄关系进行分析发现,灌域地下水补给主要来源于灌溉水入渗,灌域地下水排泄主要去向为潜水蒸发。在5、7、10月,灌域地下水储量由于较大的灌溉用水和秋浇引水量而增加;9月份潜水蒸发量对地下水消耗量较小,这导致地下水储量增加;6、8月由于引水的补给量减少,部分地下水储量被潜水蒸发消耗。【结论】本文建立的考虑冻融期和地下水排水过程的水量均衡模型应用在义长灌域效果较好,灌域不同月份地下水储量变化受引水量、地下水埋深、排水量等多种因素主导。

基于供水量的两级渠系优化配水模型

【目的】基于灌区实际供水量构建两级渠系优化配水模型,提供各用水单元的配水量、配水流量、配水时间。【方法】本文分2种情形构建模型,情形1:非充分灌溉,作物某生育时期内供水无法满足需水,模型首先通过水资源配置确定每个用水户的分配水量,再通过渠系优化配水模型确定每条渠道的配水流量和配水时间;情形2:充分灌溉,供水能够满足需水,根据配置系数确定各渠道配水的优先次序,再确定配水流量和配水时间。【结果】将模型运用到山东省簸箕李灌区,验证模型的适用性,结果表明本模型能够根据灌区的供水量提供水资源配置方案和渠系配水方案。供水充足时,模型根据配置系数确定配水次序;供水不足时,模型根据分配系数确定水资源分配量。情形1和情形2支渠的配水流量分别在流量上限的0.8倍与0.75倍以上,做到了大流量配水;2种情形的配水周期分别为10.90、17.84 d,缩短了灌溉周期。【结论】本文建立的模型能够依据供水量首先提供水资源分配方案或配置次序,再以此为基础,提供配水方案,即配水流量、配水开始时间、配水结束时间,从而指导灌区的配水工作。

基于地理探测器的张承地区表层土壤湿度变化的驱动因素分析

河北张家口、承德地区(以下简称“张承地区”)作为京津冀地区的生态屏障、重要的水源保护地和风沙阻隔区,近年来开展了一系列生态治理工程。土壤湿度作为综合反映气候、植被覆盖、土壤性质的重要指标,在大气水—地表水—地下水的循环中至关重要。但张承地区地处半干旱区,水资源相对匮乏,且现有研究忽视了对其土壤湿度空间变化特征及驱动因素的分析。研究以中等分辨率成像光谱仪数据、全球陆地数据同化系统数据集等为基础,基于温度-植被干旱指数模型反演并分析张承地区2001—2021年土壤湿度及时空变化特征,利用地理探测器方法分析8个驱动因子对张承地区土壤湿度时空异质性的解释力。结果表明:(1)2001—2021年张承地区的土壤湿度呈现波动上升趋势,土壤湿度分布为东部高,西部低,张家口低于承德;空间上,研究区83.09%区域的土壤湿度呈现逐年上升的趋势;(2)研究区土壤湿度的驱动因素解释力大小排序为:归一化植被指数>土壤类型>年均降水>土地利用类型>坡度>高程>年均气温>坡向,其中归一化植被指数和土壤类型的解释力均高于30%,为主导驱动因素;(3)在交互作用分析中,多因子共同作用的影响大于单因子作用,归一化植被指数与高程的交互影响作用最强。研究结果对于张承地区水资源的高效利用及生态环境保护具有重要的参考作用。