TESTING FOR VARYING DISPERSION OF LONGITUDINAL BINOMIAL DATA IN NONLINEAR LOGISTIC MODELS WITH RANDOM EFFECTS

In this paper, it is discussed that two tests for varying dispersion of binomial data in the framework of nonlinear logistic models with random effects, which are widely used in analyzing longitudinal binomial data. One is the individual test and power calculation for varying dispersion through testing the randomness of cluster effects, which is extensions of Dean(1992) and Commenges et al (1994). The second test is the composite test for varying dispersion through simultaneously testing the randomness of cluster effects and the equality of random-effect means. The score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple, easy to use, matrix formulas. The authors illustrate their test methods using the insecticide data (Giltinan, Capizzi & Malani (1988)).

EMPIRICAL BAYES TEST PROBLEMS OF VARIANCE COMPONENTS IN RANDOM EFFECTS MODEL

Bayes decision rule of variance components for one-way random effects model is derived and empirical Bayes (EB) decision rules are constructed by kernel estimation method. Under suitable conditions, it is shown that the proposed EB decision rules are asymptotically optimal with convergence rates near O(n-1/2). Finally, an example concerning the main result is given.

TESTING FOR VARYING DISPERSION IN DISCRETE EXPONENTIAL FAMILY NONLINEAR MODELS

It is necessary to test for varying dispersion in generalized nonlinear models.Wei,et al(1998) developed a likelihood ratio test,a score test and their adjustments to test for varying dispersion in continuous exponential family nonlinear models.This type of problem in the framework of general discrete exponential family nonlinear models is discussed.Two types of varying dispersion,which are random coefficients model and random effects model,are proposed,and corresponding score test statistics are constructed and expressed in simple,easy to use,matrix formulas.

Effects of topography on dynamic responses of single piles under vertical cyclic loading

This paper describes model tests of single piles subjected to vertical cyclic compressive loading for three kinds of topography: sloping ground, level ground, and inclined bedrock. Comprehensive dynamic responses involving cyclic effects and vibration behaviours are studied under various load combinations of dynamic amplitude, mean load,frequency and number of cycles. Test results show that permanent settlement can generally be predicted with a quadratic function or power function of cycles.Sloping ground topography produces more pronounced settlement than level ground under the same load condition. For vibration behaviour,displacement amplitude is weakly affected by the number of cycles, while load amplitude significantly influences dynamic responses. Test results also reveal that increasing load amplitude intensifies nonlinearity and topography effects. The strain distribution in a pile and soil stress at the pile tip are displayed to investigate the vibration mechanism accounting for sloping ground effects. Furthermore, the dynamic characteristics among three kinds of topography in the elastic stage are studied using a three-dimensional finite method. Numerical results are validated by comparing with experimental results for base inclination topography. An inclined soil profile boundary causes non-axisymmetric resultant deformation, though a small difference in vertical displacement is observed.

A BOUNDARY NESTING SCHEME OF LIMITED AREA MODEL NESTED WITH GLOBAL MODEL FOR FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA

Today, the nested model is used widely. The effect and role of each nested variate is analyzed in this paper. It is found that the forecast could benefit by nesting part of the variates and the effect of each of the variates may be different. Therefore, only the effectual variates are chosen for the nesting. According to this finding, a scheme is suggested and applied to the limited area mode (TL10) nested with global spectral mode (T63) for forecasting tropical cyclones over the South China Sea. A few numerical prediction tests show that this scheme is reasonable and efficient.

Laboratory model study of newly deposited dredger fills using improved multiple-vacuum preloading technique

Problems continue to be encountered concerning the traditional vacuum preloading method in field during the treatment of newly deposited dredger fills.In this paper,an improved multiple-vacuum preloading method was developed to consolidate newly dredger fills that are hydraulically placed in seawater for land reclamation in Lingang Industrial Zone of Tianjin City,China.With this multiplevacuum preloading method,the newly deposited dredger fills could be treated effectively by adopting a novel moisture separator and a rapid improvement technique without sand cushion.A series of model tests was conducted in the laboratory for comparing the results from the multiple-vacuum preloading method and the traditional one.Ten piezometers and settlement plates were installed to measure the variations in excess pore water pressures and moisture content,and vane shear strength was measured at different positions.The testing results indicate that water dischargeetime curves obtained by the traditional vacuum preloading method can be divided into three phases:rapid growth phase,slow growth phase,and steady phase.According to the process of fluid flow concentrated along tiny ripples and building of larger channels inside soils during the whole vacuum loading process,the fluctuations of pore water pressure during each loading step are divided into three phases:steady phase,rapid dissipation phase,and slow dissipation phase.An optimal loading pattern which could have a best treatment effect was proposed for calculating the water discharge and pore water pressure of soil using the improved multiple-vacuum preloading method.For the newly deposited dredger fills at Lingang Industrial Zone of Tianjin City,the best loading step was 20 kPa and the loading of 40-50 k Pa produced the highest drainage consolidation.The measured moisture content and vane shear strength were discussed in terms of the effect of reinforcement,both of which indicate that the multiple-vacuum preloading method has a better treatment effect not only in decreasing the moisture content and increasing the bearing capacity,but also in increasing the process uniformity at different depths of foundation.

The Shielding Effect of Multi-Pile Structures on Ice Force

The shielding effect of the front pile-row on the ice force acting on the back pile-row is studied by ice force model tests. In the tests, the front pile-row is designed to model jacket legs and the back pile-row to model the water resisting pipe-phalanx within the jacket. The shielding factor for ice force corresponding to different conditions are given in this paper. The research indicates that there are many factors, including the longitudinal and lateral spacing between the front and back pile-row, ice attacking angle and the ratio of pile diameter to ice thickness, that influence the shielding effect on ice force.

圆球上浮运动特性数值仿真及试验研究

以圆球状浮体为对象,研究尺度、密度比(圆球密度与流体密度比值)对其上浮运动性能的影响。建立静水中圆球上浮运动数值模拟方法,通过与模型试验测试结果对比,验证数值方法的可靠性。通过验证的计算方法对不同尺度和密度比的圆球上浮运动过程进行分析,结果表明:圆球在稳定上浮阶段的阻力系数大致为常数1,不随圆球尺度和密度比变化产生较大变化;若2个圆球满足相似条件且尺度之比为λ,则它们的稳定速度之比和上浮总时间之比大致为λ0.5。本研究通过对圆球上浮运动的计算和分析,寻求不同尺度圆球上浮运动之间的相关性,可为其他结构物上浮运动性能的尺度相关性研究分析提供参考依据。

磁记忆效应的Jiles-Atherton理论模型全过程推导

金属磁记忆检测方法是一种能够对铁磁材料进行早期无损检测的新技术,其检测的是在外应力和地磁场的共同作用下铁磁构件产生的自发漏磁场.而磁机械效应则是指在恒定的外磁场环境中,磁化强度与外应力之间的变化关系.两者从本质上来讲是相似的.因此,磁记忆效应的物理本质就是弱磁场(地磁场)下的磁机械效应.针对磁机械效应经典的Jiles-Atherton理论模型,进行了系统、全面、完整的理论公式推导,分析了不同变量之间的物理关系和数学关系,并指出Jiles-Atherton理论模型存在的不足,并探讨了基于该模型进行的优化改进研究,改进的模型很好地解释了拉压应力作用下的非对称磁化行为.

双碳背景下居民快递包装回收行为研究

在“双碳”背景下,针对目前中国快递包装回收率低的问题,利用湖南省高校学生家庭的308份调研数据,研究居民快递包装回收行为影响因素。以拓展的计划行为理论为基础,通过构建结构方程模型(structural equation model,SEM)进行验证分析,并替换不同模型,用线性回归对结果进行稳健性检验。研究结果表明:感知行为控制和低碳自我认同感对居民快递包装回收意愿的影响程度明显高于回收态度、主观规范;实施垃圾分类会显著正向调节回收意愿与回收行为之间的关系,并且实施垃圾分类的程度越高,发生快递包装回收实际行为的可能性越大。

考虑泄漏和温度效应的黏滞阻尼器性能演变研究

黏滞阻尼器作为一种广泛使用的被动减振/震装置,其力学性能在全寿命周期内会发生演变。为探究其力学参数改变模式,揭示其性能演变机理,以油液泄漏和温度效应为主要影响因素开展了试验及仿真研究。首先,对不同漏油程度和环境温度下的黏滞阻尼器分别开展了滞回试验研究和黏温关系分析;其次,对黏滞阻尼器进行了流体动力学仿真,获得其性能演变规律;最后,建立了漏油与温度联合作用下黏滞阻尼器性能演变的力学模型,并对其进行了验证。研究结果表明,油液泄漏将导致滞回圈出现零力平台段,且平台长度与漏油比例成正比;温度升高会导致阻尼系数的减小,从而影响阻尼力峰值;所建立的性能演变模型能够较为精确地反映黏滞阻尼器力学性能的改变。

非挤土桩对于砂土地层地震液化的影响机制研究

如何通过工程措施实现地基抗液化能力的有效提升,是岩土工程领域近年来研究的热点问题之一。非挤土桩作为地基处理的常用措施,其加固后地层的抗液化能力能否得到提升,在学术界还存在着一定争议,主要原因是其对于砂层地震液化的影响机制尚未明确。针对该问题,本文开展了干砂及饱和砂土原状场地与非挤土桩加固场地的超重力模型试验,通过对比不同试验中地层的动力响应与超静孔隙水压力的发生发展规律,首次发现非挤土桩对于地层的作用机制并非仅有“刚度效应”,还有因振动过程中桩-土变形不协调而产生的附加作用力,该作用力将显著提升浅层土体的应力及应变水平,加大其液化的可能性,且随着埋深增加,该附加作用力逐渐变小,“刚度效应”将逐渐占据主导地位,相关研究成果可为进一步揭示非挤土桩抗震加固机理、评估其加固效果提供一定的基础和支撑。

重大事件下城市土地市场公共政策效应评估——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

文章采用季节调整法和HP滤波法,使用35个城市政府、企业和居民三部门的21期季度收入数据,对理论模型中的重大公共卫生事件的影响进行了测度;采用断点回归方法,实证了重大公共卫生事件下公共政策对土地价格的影响,且通过分区和分层进一步进行稳定性检验和异质性检验。研究结果表明,重大公共卫生事件对三部门的运行在短期内仍造成了较大波动,其中房地产企业部门的短期波动最大,对城市土地市场有明显的破坏效应;公共政策对城市土地市场进行了修正,但修正程度随着冲击程度的加大而减小,对不同地区、不同城市、不同用途土地市场的政策效应也有差异。文章为深化关于重大事件下城市土地市场的公共政策效应评估提供了定量判断,为政府部门针对城市土地市场制定更精准有效的公共政策提供了一定的理论支撑。

微型木桩的群桩效应研究

木材广泛存在于我国村镇中,其取材加工方便,价格低廉,用作村镇住宅的基础结构,可有效减少村镇住宅的能源消耗,符合绿色建筑理念。本文以微型木桩为研究对象,通过离心机模型试验和有限元数值分析,研究了微型木桩在砂土和粉质黏土土层条件下的群桩承载力和群桩效应系数。结果表明,微型木桩的群桩效应系数η在砂土中大于1,在黏土中小于1,受桩土刚度比的影响较小;桩径减小改变了群桩最优桩间距,砂土中微型木桩η随着桩的距径比Sa/D的增大逐渐增大,在Sa/D=6时出现峰值,常规桩在Sa/D=3时达到最大,微型木桩最优桩间距大于常规桩;黏土中,微型木桩η峰值对应的Sa/D=4小于常规桩η峰值对应的Sa/D=6,微型木桩最优桩间距小于常规桩;微型木桩群桩效应系数随内摩擦角和不排水抗剪强度的增大而减小,随距径比的增大先增加后减小,随桩数的增加而增大。

高地应力-化学侵蚀耦合作用下炭质板岩蠕变试验及非线性蠕变损伤模型

为克服高程障碍并降低施工风险,可采用长大隧道穿越崇山峻岭,但这些隧道往往处于深埋高地应力环境,并受到化学侵蚀影响。为了解决此问题,以丽江—香格里拉炭质板岩大变形隧道为研究对象,采用室内试验和理论推导,研究深埋炭质板岩隧道受化学侵蚀作用下的围岩变形特性。在Poyting-Thomson体蠕变体的基础上,根据模型元件的力学特性,叠加了损伤元件、化学损伤元件和非线性元件,提出高地应力-化学侵蚀耦合作用下炭质板岩非线性蠕变损伤本构关系。研究结果表明:1)炭质板岩试样受化学侵蚀影响显著,侵蚀90 d试样所产生的轴向蠕变应变为侵蚀0 d试样的2.02倍,侵蚀60 d试样所产生的径向蠕变为侵蚀0 d试样的1.85倍;2)受侵蚀的炭质板岩试样在三轴压缩状态下破裂以斜向贯通裂隙为主,并产生一定的滑移错动裂隙,且沿轴线的拉伸劈裂破坏受围压作用抑制明显,未产生竖向贯通裂隙。

三维土工网边坡防护水土保持能力研究

路基边坡防护工程可减轻降雨对坡面土体的侵蚀作用,为深入研究坡面防护材料水土保持能力的定量表征方法,通过室内人工降雨边坡侵蚀模型试验,分析不同降雨强度和不同三维土工网防护下路基边坡的降雨侵蚀规律,提出三维土工网水土保持能力的试验测定方法及相关系数计算公式。研究结果表明:三维土工网防护边坡泥沙流失干质量明显小于相同条件下不设防边坡泥沙流失干质量,土工网防护在减少边坡侵蚀量的同时,有利于边坡侵蚀进程的快速稳定,但土工网的水土保持能力随雨强增大急剧下降。泥沙流失速度随着降雨的持续而逐渐减小,后期趋于收敛稳定,侵蚀历程采用指数函数拟合具有较好的相关性。建议设防边坡的试验降雨时间不少于70 min,不设防的边坡试验降雨时间不小于100 min。水土保持能力系数随雨强的增大呈对数函数关系减小,雨强超过100 mm/h时水土保持能力系数实测值与对数函数拟合值差异较大,建议在测定材料水土保持能力系数时雨强取20~100 mm/h,可取50 mm/h作为标准试验雨强。泡面类三维土工网水土保持能力显著优于普通三维土工网,而双泡面的三维土工网优于单泡面三维土工网。试验条件下凹凸泡面三维土工网的水土保持能力系数主要分布在1.71~3.03,建议50 mm/h雨强三维土工网水土保持能力系数不应小于1.5。

基于节段模型测力方法的塔式起重机风荷载特性研究

塔式起重机被广泛应用于铁道工程和土木工程施工过程,属于高耸结构体系,风荷载是塔式起重机结构设计的控制性荷载。为完善《塔式起重机设计规范》(GB/T 13752—2017)和《建筑结构荷载规范》(GB 50009—2012)中的塔式起重机斜风向设计风荷载计算方法,解决风向、吊臂、平衡臂位置等因素对塔式起重机遮挡和干扰引起的设计风荷载计算问题。选取平头塔式起重机为研究对象,对塔身、吊臂、平衡臂进行多工况的节段模型测力风洞试验,研究湍流强度、节段干扰和遮挡等因素对塔式起重机节段风荷载特性的影响规律,研究不同风向下节段阻力系数分布规律,对比标准化阻力系数与当前主要规范的异同,进而探讨节段斜风向标准化阻力系数计算方法。研究结果表明湍流强度对节段阻力系数影响较小,可忽略,而平衡臂和吊臂相邻节段的干扰会减小测试节段的阻力系数;在斜风向下,由于吊臂和平衡臂之间存在相邻节段干扰,国内外规范方法的计算值均会大于干扰工况的节段风洞试验值;当前主要国家规范规定的垂直风向塔身、吊臂、平衡臂阻力系数与风洞试验测得的阻力系数值较为接近,基于风洞试验结果给出典型风向的塔式起重机各节段的风荷载系数取值可用于结构设计;基于风洞试验测试结果推导的塔式起重机斜风向风荷载计算方法具有较好的拟合效果。研究成果可推荐相关工程应用,可为相关规范的修改或补充提供参考。

扩底桩竖向承载特性及群桩效应研究

为探明扩底群桩竖向承载特性,采用扩底桩筏结构,开展单桩(扩径比分别为1.5、2.0、2.5、3.0)和桩筏(扩径比为2)基础静载模型试验,分析其荷载传递规律,并建立桩间距为3.75、4.00、4.50、5.00倍桩直径时扩底桩筏基础有限元模型,研究桩间距对群桩效应影响。结果表明:扩底单桩和扩底桩筏结构荷载沉降曲线均为缓变型;扩底桩极限承载力随扩径比增大而逐渐增大,扩径比2.5~3.0时极限承载力增幅变缓,建议扩底桩扩径比取2.5~3.0;由于桩土共同沉降,桩间土压缩,桩土作用更充分,扩底桩筏基础中心桩侧摩阻力荷载分担比比扩底单桩增大了17.71%;群桩效应系数随桩间距增大而逐渐增大,桩间距为4.5~5.0倍桩直径时群桩效应系数增幅较小,群桩效应较弱,建议扩底桩筏基础桩间距取值不小于4.5倍桩直径。

砂土边坡的速凝高聚物微型抗滑桩加固效果研究

针对常规混凝土凝固较慢、工期长、施工复杂等缺陷,提出速凝高聚物微型抗滑桩加固边坡的新思路,开展高聚物微型抗滑桩加固砂土边坡的模型试验与数值模拟研究。结果表明,在数值模拟中,将Mohr-Coulomb强度参数转换为Drucker-Prager强度参数时,应力洛德角取0能够更准确地反映边坡岩土体的强度特征;模拟得到的各边坡工况的位移、变形发展过程和破坏特征都与试验结果较为吻合,在一定程度上验证了数值模拟的准确性;在施加了5级水平推力(1 500 N)后,单排高聚物微型抗滑桩加固后的坡脚、坡中和坡顶的实测位移分别比加固前减小了33.4%、33.3%和33.3%,而双排桩加固后的坡脚、坡中和坡顶的实测位移分别比加固前减小了55.9%、53.4%和43.4%。加固前的坡面呈现波浪状的变形特征,加固后的坡体变形显著改善。在水平推力达到1 800 N时,单排桩工况中的桩体断裂,而当水平推力达到2 400 N时,双排桩工况中的后排桩首先发生断裂。研究结果验证了速凝高聚物微型抗滑桩在边坡加固中具有一定有效性和可行性。

小比尺条形基础承载力模型试验的尺寸效应研究

开展小比尺模型试验是土力学承载力研究中的重要方法,但小比尺模型的尺寸效应会影响试验的定量结果,导致小比尺试验一般仅能用于定性研究。在饱和砂土地基中开展了20组条形基础承载力的小比尺模型试验,通过改变基础尺寸、埋深以及砂土的密实度研究承载力的变化,进而引入离散元分析方法,采用抗转动模型模拟砂土颗粒的力学行为,对条形基础承载力试验进行模拟,从微观角度揭示小比尺模型试验尺寸效应的来源和对宏观承载力的影响规律。研究结果表明,饱和砂土地基密实度与基础埋深越大,小比尺实试验的尺寸效应越明显,尺寸效应的产生是应力水平变化、破坏模式改变以及渐进破坏程度综合作用的结果。