Analyzing the Relation Between Earthquakes and Active Faults Based on the Parameter Optimization Model

The gestation and occurrence of strong earthquakes are closely related to fault activity, which is not only revealed by abundant experimentation and seismism but also proved by modern seismology. On the Chinese mainland, the relation between earthquake activity and active faults is one of the bases for partitioning potential seismic sources, analyzing the seismotectoulcs and estimating location of strong earthquakes.Due to the nonuniformity of earth media, instability of observation systems and disturbance of the environment, etc, the variety of observational data is complicated, that is, there is no absolutely ＂normal＂ or ＂abnormal＂, and seismic anomalies can be divided into many mutually exdusive＂ abnormal states＂. In different conditions of combined time-spacestrength, determining seismic anomalies by different monomial forecast methods and its efficiency could be different due to the uncertainty of a precursor itself or complexity of the relationship between a precursor and earthquake gestation. It is very difficult to discover and dispose of this difference in actual application in a ＂two-state＂ model. But in a ＂multi-state＂ model, the difference can be easily reflected and the optimal combination of forecasting parameters for a forecast method can also be determined easily. Based on the ＂multi-state＂ precursory model and the optimization method for parameters of earthquake forecast model under the condition of optimal forecast efficiency, the relationship of the spatial location of earthquake with M ≥ 6.0 and active faults in three seismic belts are analyzed. The results demonstrate that in the Hetao Seismic Belt, seismicity is mostly concentrated in the range of 20 km along the fault, the optimization model can forecast the location of potential earthquakes of M ≥ 6.0 near the faults with a relatively high accuracy and the reliability is 0.5 ; while in the Qilian Mt. Seismic Belt, the reliability only reaches 0.14 when we use the model to estimate earthquakes within 30 km range along the faults. The ＂multi-state＂ precursory model, the efficiency-evaluating model and the parameter selection of individual earthquake forecast model based on optimal efficiency are of certain revelatory and practicable meanings for developing knowledge about precursors, investigating the laws of earthquake preparation and searching for optimal forecasting methods.

Opti mization and Model of Laminar Cooling Control Systemfor Hot Strip Mills

The structure of laminar cooling control system for hot rolling was introduced and the control mode, cooling strategy, segment tracking and model recalculation were analyzed. The parameters of air/water cooling models were optimized by regressing the data gathering in situ, and satisfactory effect was obtained. The coiling temperature can be controlled within ±15℃.

Parameter Estimation of S-Shaped Growth Model:A Modified Particle Swarm Algorithm

Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on the diffusion phenomenon（DPPSO） was employed to estimate the parameters for this model.Under the sense of least squares,the parameter estimation problem of S-shaped growth model,taking the Gompertz and Logistic models for example,is transformed into a multi-dimensional function optimization problem.The results show that the DPPSO algorithm can effectively estimate the parameters of the S-shaped growth model.