Multi-Model Projection of July–August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO_2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature

This is the second part of the authors’ analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models （20C3M） experiment and 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment （to doubling） （1pctto2x） of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP3）. The study focuses on the potential changes of July–August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6–0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China （5°C） than over eastern China （2°C）. The multi-model ensemble （MME） exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the 1pctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest–southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models （～1°C– 2°C） is less than MME warming （～2°C–4°C）, indicating a relatively robust temperature change under CO 2 doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 （GFDL-CM2.1） simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for ＂transporting＂ the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.

Multi-model Projection of July–August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO_2 Doubling. Part I: Precipitation

Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July–August over China in response to CO 2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models （20C3M） experiment and the 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment （to doubling） （1pctto2x） of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP3）. Evaluation of the models’ performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ～50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ～2–3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 （GFDL-CM2.1） indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.

Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Projected Regional 1.50℃and 2.00℃Warming Threshold-crossing Time Worldwide Using the CMIP6 Models

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions.

Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models

The Pacific subtropical cells(STCs)are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics,and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability.The variability of STCs under global warming is investigated using multimodal outputs from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)and ocean reanalysis products.Firstly,the volume transport diagnostic analysis is employed to evaluate how coupled models and ocean reanalysis products reproduce interior STC transport.The variation of heat transport by the interior STC under the high-emissions warming scenarios is also analyzed.The results show that the multimodal-mean linear trends of the interior STC transport along 9°S and 9°N are-0.02 Sv/a and 0.04 Sv/a under global warming,respectively,which is mainly due to the combined effect of the strengthened upper oceanic stratification and the weakening of wind field.There is a compensation relationship between the interior STC and the western boundary transport in the future climate,and the compensation relationship of 9°S is more significant than that of 9°N.In addition,compared with ocean reanalysis products,the coupled models tend to underestimate the variability of the interior STC transport convergence,and thus may lose some sea surface temperature(SST)driving force,which may be the reason for the low STC-SST correlation simulated by the model.The future scenario simulation shows that the heat transport of interior STC is weakened under global warming,with a general agreement across models.

CMIP 6 models simulation of the connection between North/South Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO

The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

With the fast growth of Chinese economic, more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects. How to select the environmental investment projects （alternatives） for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria. A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports＇ information and the data of the real projects. And, the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore, by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals （WSI）, the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed. The result shows that some criteria, such as “proportion of benefit to project cost”, will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not. The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion. So, some criteria such as “proportion of benefit to project cost” are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.

Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models

The increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have caused fundamental changes to the physical and biogeochemical properties of the oceans,and it will continue to occur in the foreseeable future.Based on the outputs of nine Earth System Models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),in this study,we provided a synoptic assessment of future changes in the sea surface temperature(SST),salinity,dissolved oxygen(DO),seawater pH,and marine net primary productivity(NPP)in the coastal China seas over the 21st century.The results show that the mid-high latitude areas of the coastal China seas(East China Seas(ECS),including the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea,and East China Sea)will be simultaneously exposed to enhanced warming,deoxygenation,acidification,and decreasing NPP as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.The magnitudes of the changes will increase as the greenhouse gas concentrations increase.Under the high emission scenario(Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5),the ECS will experience an SST increase of 3.24±1.23℃,a DO concentration decrease of 10.90±3.92μmol/L(decrease of 6.3%),a pH decline of 0.36±0.02,and a NPP reduction of-17.7±6.2 mg/(m2·d)(decrease of 12.9%)relative to the current levels(1980-2005)by the end of this century.The co-occurrence of these changes and their cascade effects are expected to induce considerable biological and ecological responses,thereby making the ECS among the most vulnerable ocean areas to future climate change.Despite high uncertainties,our results have important implications for regional marine assessments.

Relativistic Consistent Angular-Momentum Projected Shell-Model：Angular-Momentum Projection

The angular-momentum projection part of RECAPS is presented.Application of RECAPS to some deformed nuclei is also presented.

Relativistic Consistent Angular-Momentum Projected Shell-Model： Relativistic Mean Field

We develop a relativistic nuclear structure model, relativistic consistent angular-momentum projected shellmodel (RECAPS), which combines the relativistic mean-field theory with the angular-momentum projection method.In this new model, nuclear ground-state properties are first calculated consistently using relativistic mean-field (RMF)theory. Then angular momentum projection method is used to project out states with good angular momentum from a few important configurations. By diagonalizing the hamiltonian, the energy levels and wave functions are obtained.This model is a new attempt for the understanding of nuclear structure of normal nuclei and for the prediction of nuclear properties of nuclei far from stability. In this paper, we will describe the treatment of the relativistic mean field. A computer code, RECAPS-RMF, is developed. It solves the relativistic mean field with axial-symmetric deformation in the spherical harmonic oscillator basis. Comparisons between our calculations and existing relativistic mean-field calculations are made to test the model. These include the ground-state properties of spherical nuclei ^16O and ^208Pb,the deformed nucleus 20~Ne. Good agreement is obtained.

On grey relation projection model based on projection pursuit

Multidimensional grey relation projection value can be synthesized as one-dimensional projection value by using projection pursuit model. The larger the projection value is,the better the model. Thus,according to the projection value,the best one can be chosen from the model aggregation. Because projection pursuit modeling based on accelerating genetic algorithm can simplify the implementation procedure of the projection pursuit technique and overcome its complex calculation as well as the difficulty in implementing its program,a new method can be obtained for choosing the best grey relation projection model based on the projection pursuit technique.

Asymmetry of Surface Climate Change under RCP2.6 Projections from the CMIP5 Models

The multi-model ensemble （MME） of 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five （CMIP5） was used to analyze surface climate change in the 21st century under the representative con- centration pathway RCP2.6, to reflect emission mitigation efforts. The maximum increase of surface air temperature （SAT） is 1.86℃ relative to the pre-industrial level, achieving the target to limit the global warming to 2℃. Associated with the ＂increase-peak-decline＂ greenhouse gases （GHGs） concentration path- way of RCP2.6, the global mean SAT of MME shows opposite trends during two time periods： warming during 2006-55 and cooling during 2056-2100. Our results indicate that spatial distribution of the linear trend of SAT during the warming period exhibited asymmetrical features compared to that during the cool- ing period. The warming during 2006-55 is distributed globally, while the cooling during 2056-2100 mainly occurred in the NH, the South Indian Ocean, and the tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Different dominant roles of heat flux in the two time periods partly explain the asymmetry. During the warming period, the latent heat flux and shortwave radiation both play major roles in heating the surface air. During the cooling period, the increase of net longwave radiation partly explains the cooling in the tropics and subtropics, which is associated with the decrease of total cloud amount. The decrease of the shortwave radiation accounts for the prominent cooling in the high latitudes of the NH. The surface sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and shortwave radiation collectively contribute to the especial warming phenomenon in the high-latitude of the SH during the cooling period.

Penalty model for delay of bidding section construction period in South-to-North Water Diversion Eastern Route Project from perspective of programs

According to the multi-project and program management theory, this paper analyzes the program generation principle and establishes a program based on progress goals. On the basis of the present situation of calculation of penalty for delay of the bidding section construction period with the critical path method, we studied the effects of contractor-induced delay of the bidding section construction period in detail, including the effects on the construction period of the bidding section itself, the earliest start times of the next bidding section and other subsequent bidding sections, and the construction period of the program, and then constructed a penalty model for delay of the bidding section construction period from the perspective of programs. Using the penalty model, we conducted a practical analysis of penalty for delay of the construction period of the Baoying station program in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The model can help determine the amount of penalty for delay of the construction period in bidding sections scientifically and reasonably,

Projection pursuit cluster model and its application in water quality assessment

One of the difficulties frequently encountered in water quality assessment is that there are many factors and they cannot be assessed according to one factor, all the effect factors associated with water quality must be used. In order to overcome this issues the projection pursuit principle is introduced into water quality assessment, and projection pursuit cluster(PPC) model is developed in this study. The PPC model makes the transition from high dimension to one-dimension. In other words, based on the PPC model, multifactor problem can be converted to one factor problem. The application of PPC model can be divided into four parts: (1) to estimate projection index function Q(); (2) to find the right projection direction ; (3) to calculate projection characteristic value of the i th sample z-i, and (4) to draw comprehensive analysis on the basis of z-i. On the other hand, the empirical formula of cutoff radius R is developed, which is benefit for the model to be used in practice. Finally, a case study of water quality assessment is proposed in this paper. The results showed that the PPC model is reasonable, and it is more objective and less subjective in water quality assessment. It is a new method for multivariate problem comprehensive analysis.

Model Projections of Precipitation Minus Evaporation in China

Changes in precipitation minus evaporation （P-E） are analyzed to investigate the possible impacts of climate change on water resource conditions in China. Simulations of SRES A1B and 20C3M scenarios from the WCRP CMIP3 GCMs are employed in the study. Time slice analysis shows that there would be more annual mean P-E across China in 2040-2055 and 2080-2099, compared to 1980-1999, with the largest percentage change over Northwest China and the Bohai Rim area. Precipitation and evaporation would also increase over entire China during these two periods. Annual mean P-E, precipitation, and evaporation averaged over the whole China and its eight sub-areas all yield generally upward trends during the 21st century. This indicates that on annual mean scale, the global warming related precipitation dominates the hydroclimate conditions in China. On seasonal mean scale, although precipitation is projected to increase over China, P-E exhibits both decreasing and increasing trends over certain regions of China. This suggests that the variation of global warming related evaporation dominates hydroclimate conditions over some parts of China, especially in northern China. Therefore, in hydroclimate condition projections, considering both evaporation and precipitation changes should be more reasonable than considering only precipitation.

Numerical modeling of hydrodynamic changes due to coastal reclamation projects in Xiamen Bay,China

Xiamen Bay in South China has experienced extensive coastal exploitation since the 1950s,resulting in some severe environmental problems.Local authorities now have completed or are implementing many environmental restoration projects.Evaluating the cumulative impact of exploitation and restoration activities on the environment is a complicated multi-disciplinary problem.However,hydrodynamic changes in the bay caused by such coastal projects can be characterized directly and definitively through numerical modeling.This paper assesses the cumulative effect of coastal projects on the hydrodynamic setting using a high-resolution numerical modeling method that makes use of tidal current speeds and the tidal prism as two hydrodynamic indices.Changes in tidal velocity and the characteristics of the tidal prism show that hydrodynamic conditions have declined from 1938 to 2007 in the full-tide area.The tidal current speed and tidal prism have decreased by 40% in the western part of the bay and 20% in the eastern part of the bay.Because of the linear relationship between tidal prism and area,the degraded hydrodynamic conditions are anticipated to be restored to 1972 levels following the completion of current and proposed restoration projects,i.e.33% and 15% decrease in the hydrodynamic conditions of 1938 for the western and eastern parts of the bay,respectively.The results indicate that hydrodynamic conditions can be restored to some extent with the implementation of a sustainable coastal development plan,although a full reversal of conditions is not possible.To fully assess the environmental changes in a region,more indices,e.g.,water quality and ecosystem parameters,should be considered in future evaluations.

How the “Best” Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China

Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%0-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.

Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models

This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models (RCMs), i.e., RegCM3 (the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model), PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) and CMM5 (the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA, NCAR Mesoscale Model) to simulate the near-surface-layer winds (10 m above surface) all over China in the late 20th century. Results suggest that like global climate models (GCMs), these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country. However, RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed. In view of their merits, these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century. The results show that 1) summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2) annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3) the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain. As a result, although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come, there are great uncertainties in projections, especially for wind speed, and these issues need to be further explored.

Asian Summer Monsoon Onset in Simulations and CMIP5 Projections Using Four Chinese Climate Models

The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21 st century （i.e. RCP8.5） by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal （near-zero） warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations.

Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.