基于一种距离相关的超高维生存数据Model-Free特征筛选

随着大数据时代的来临,数据维度爆炸式增长,超高维数据的降维问题逐渐成为众多研究领域的热点话题。由于响应变量通常存在右删失,处理超高维完全数据的降维方法在右删失数据中将不再适用。本研究提出一种新的基于距离相关能有效处理超高维右删失数据的特征筛选方法。首先利用距离相关系数计算每个协变量对响应变量的边际效应,建立与该系数有关的筛选指标,然后再根据事先确立的筛选准则进行特征筛选。提出的特征筛选方法不依赖任何模型结构假定,因此可以有效避免模型指定错误带来的不良后果。此外,该方法采用的距离协方差估计量是总体距离协方差的一个无偏估计,统计准确性和计算精度高。模拟和实证研究表明,提出的方法能在保留所有重要变量的前提下快速剔除与响应变量相关程度较弱的协变量,从而达到降低参数维数的目的。

A dynamic soil freezing characteristic curve model for frozen soil

The soil freezing characteristic curve(SFCC)plays a fundamental role in comprehending thermohydraulic behavior and numerical simulation of frozen soil.This study proposes a dynamic model to uniformly express SFCCs amidst varying total water contents throughout the freezing-thawing process.Firstly,a general model is proposed,wherein the unfrozen water content at arbitrary temperature is determined as the lesser of the current total water content and the reference value derived from saturated SFCC.The dynamic performance of this model is verified through test data.Subsequently,in accordance with electric double layer(EDL)theory,the theoretical residual and minimum temperatures in SFCC are calculated to be-14.5℃to-20℃for clay particles and-260℃,respectively.To ensure that the SFCC curve ends at minimum temperature,a correction function is introduced into the general model.Furthermore,a simplified dynamic model is proposed and investigated,necessitating only three parameters inherited from the general model.Additionally,both general and simplified models are evaluated based on a test database and proven to fit the test data exactly across the entire temperature range.Typical recommended parameter values for various types of soils are summarized.Overall,this study provides not only a theoretical basis for most empirical equations but also proposes a new and more general equation to describe the SFCC.

Recent Advances in Mechanistic Understanding of Metal-Free Carbon Thermocatalysis and Electrocatalysis with Model Molecules

Metal-free carbon,as the most representative heterogeneous metal-free catalysts,have received considerable interests in electro-and thermo-catalytic reac-tions due to their impressive performance and sustainability.Over the past decade,well-designed carbon catalysts with tunable structures and heteroatom groups coupled with various characterization techniques have proposed numerous reaction mechanisms.However,active sites,key intermediate species,precise structure-activity relationships and dynamic evolution processes of carbon catalysts are still rife with controversies due to the monotony and limitation of used experimental methods.In this Review,we sum-marize the extensive efforts on model catalysts since the 2000s,particularly in the past decade,to overcome the influences of material and structure limitations in metal-free carbon catalysis.Using both nanomolecule model and bulk model,the real contribution of each alien species,defect and edge configuration to a series of fundamentally important reactions,such as thermocatalytic reactions,electrocatalytic reactions,were systematically studied.Combined with in situ techniques,isotope labeling and size control,the detailed reaction mechanisms,the precise 2D structure-activity relationships and the rate-determining steps were revealed at a molecular level.Furthermore,the outlook of model carbon catalysis has also been proposed in this work.

Degree of Freedom Analysis for Holographic MIMO Based on a Mutual-Coupling-Compliant Channel Model

Degree of freedom(DOF)is a key indicator for spatial multiplexing layers of a wireless channel.Traditionally,the channel of a multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)half-wavelength dipole array has a DOF that equals the antenna number.However,recent studies suggest that the DOF could be less than the antenna number when strong mutual coupling is considered.We utilize a mutual-coupling-compliant channel model to investigate the DOF of the holographic MIMO(HMIMO)channel and give a upper bound of the DOF with strong mutual coupling.Our numerical simulations demonstrate that a dense array can support more DOF per unit aperture as compared with a half-wavelength MIMO system.

采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

基于改进24Model-ISM-SNA建筑工人不安全行为关联路径研究

建筑施工现场环境复杂,为有效控制不安全行为发生,基于行为安全“2-4”模型对360份具有代表性的建筑安全事故调查报告进行分析,提取出22个不安全行为的主要影响因素。利用灰色关联分析方法(GRA)改进的集成ISM-SNA模型,将不安全行为风险因素划分为表层、过渡层与深层,然后对风险因素进行可视化分析、中心度分析及凝聚子群分析,揭示了各致因因素间的关联关系和传导路径。结果表明,建筑工人不安全行为影响因素可划分成7级3阶的多级递阶结构,安全意识、现场监管、外部环境是建筑工人不安全行为的关键影响因素,同时现场监管和隐患排查到位能有效降低不安全行为的发生。

基于24Model的地铁内涝事故原因分析与评估

为降低地铁内涝事故灾害风险,基于事故致因“2-4”模型,分析了地铁内涝事故致灾因子,采用层次分析法构建了地铁内涝事故原因分析指标体系,确定了各风险因子的权重,并利用模糊综合评价法对地铁内涝事故进行了定量评估,识别出关键的影响因素。结果表明:地铁内涝事故一级指标中不安全动作与物态因素最重要,其中影响最大的指标包括擅自更改建筑设计、未按照要求检查水位情况、未及时排水、出入口不符合防汛标准等因素;习惯性不安全行为的权重位居第二,表明该指标因素较为重要,同时安全管理体系得分位居第二,表明该指标因素较易发生。对关键指标采取防范措施,可有效降低风险,从而减少地铁内涝事故的发生。

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

Nonlinear free vibration of piezoelectric semiconductor doubly-curved shells based on nonlinear drift-diffusion model

In this paper, the nonlinear free vibration behaviors of the piezoelectric semiconductor(PS) doubly-curved shell resting on the Pasternak foundation are studied within the framework of the nonlinear drift-diffusion(NLDD) model and the first-order shear deformation theory. The nonlinear constitutive relations are presented, and the strain energy, kinetic energy, and virtual work of the PS doubly-curved shell are derived.Based on Hamilton's principle as well as the condition of charge continuity, the nonlinear governing equations are achieved, and then these equations are solved by means of an efficient iteration method. Several numerical examples are given to show the effect of the nonlinear drift current, elastic foundation parameters as well as geometric parameters on the nonlinear vibration frequency, and the damping characteristic of the PS doublycurved shell. The main innovations of the manuscript are that the difference between the linearized drift-diffusion(LDD) model and the NLDD model is revealed, and an effective method is proposed to select a proper initial electron concentration for the LDD model.

24Model与LCM原因因素定义对比研究

为探究损失致因模型(LCM)原因因素定义与事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)存在的异同和优缺点,梳理2个模型各层面原因和结果的定义,对比定义内容及其对事故原因分析等安全实务的指导作用,并以一起瓦斯爆炸事故为例加以实证分析,获得二者分析结果之间的差异。研究结果表明:LCM是首个将管理因素纳入事故致因分析的一维事件序列模型,可明确各层面原因因素的定义和因素间的逻辑关系,但部分定义存在交叉重复的问题,并没有揭示安全工作指导思想等深层次事故致因因素;24Model作为系统性事故致因模型,对各类因素的定义均以组织为主体,描述事件、事故、安全的概念内涵,划分个体安全动作、安全能力和组织安全管理体系的类别并给出含义解析,探究组织安全文化层面的问题并以32个元素体现;2个模型的事故原因分析方法均建立在对各层级原因因素定义的基础上,并适用于模型理论体系本身。

Designing strategy for corrosion-resistant Mg alloys based on film-free and film-covered models

Mathematical models were proposed to clarify the effect of alloying on corrosion of magnesium alloys based on film-free and film-covered status. The models are applicable to explain the “barrier effect” by cathodes and the “analogous Hall-Petch relationship” between corrosion rates and grain size. The slope of corrosion rates versus alloying content is determined by the dissolution ability of film-free substrate and the hindering effects by corrosion product film. Designing strategy for corrosion-resistant Mg alloys is established.

A model‑free approach to do long‑term volatility forecasting and its variants

Volatility forecasting is important in financial econometrics and is mainly based on the application of various GARCH-type models.However,it is difficult to choose a specific GARCH model that works uniformly well across datasets,and the traditional methods are unstable when dealing with highly volatile or short-sized datasets.The newly pro-posed normalizing and variance stabilizing(NoVaS)method is a more robust and accu-rate prediction technique that can help with such datasets.This model-free method was originally developed by taking advantage of an inverse transformation based on the frame of the ARCH model.In this study,we conduct extensive empirical and simu-lation analyses to investigate whether it provides higher-quality long-term volatility forecasting than standard GARCH models.Specifically,we found this advantage to be more prominent with short and volatile data.Next,we propose a variant of the NoVaS method that possesses a more complete form and generally outperforms the current state-of-the-art NoVaS method.The uniformly superior performance of NoVaS-type methods encourages their wide application in volatility forecasting.Our analyses also highlight the flexibility of the NoVaS idea that allows the exploration of other model structures to improve existing models or solve specific prediction problems.

Coupling of the Calculated Freezing and Thawing Front Parameterization in the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

The soil freezing and thawing process affects soil physical properties,such as heat conductivity,heat capacity,and hydraulic conductivity in frozen ground regions,and further affects the processes of soil energy,hydrology,and carbon and nitrogen cycles.In this study,the calculation of freezing and thawing front parameterization was implemented into the earth system model of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS-ESM)and its land component,the Common Land Model(CoLM),to investigate the dynamic change of freezing and thawing fronts and their effects.Our results showed that the developed models could reproduce the soil freezing and thawing process and the dynamic change of freezing and thawing fronts.The regionally averaged value of active layer thickness in the permafrost regions was 1.92 m,and the regionally averaged trend value was 0.35 cm yr–1.The regionally averaged value of maximum freezing depth in the seasonally frozen ground regions was 2.15 m,and the regionally averaged trend value was–0.48 cm yr–1.The active layer thickness increased while the maximum freezing depth decreased year by year.These results contribute to a better understanding of the freezing and thawing cycle process.

Constraints on Characteristics and Distribution of Gas Hydrate and Free Gas Using Broad-Band Processing of Three-Dimensional Seismic Data

Gas hydrate drilling expeditions in the Pearl River Mouth Basin,South China Sea,have identified concentrated gas hydrates with variable thickness.Moreover,free gas and the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas have been confirmed by logging,coring,and production tests in the foraminifera-rich silty sediments with complex bottom-simulating reflectors(BSRs).The broad-band processing is conducted on conventional three-dimensional(3D)seismic data to improve the image and detection accuracy of gas hydratebearing layers and delineate the saturation and thickness of gas hydrate-and free gas-bearing sediments.Several geophysical attributes extracted along the base of the gas hydrate stability zone are used to demonstrate the variable distribution and the controlling factors for the differential enrichment of gas hydrate.The inverted gas hydrate saturation at the production zone is over 40% with a thickness of 90 m,showing the interbedded distribution with different boundaries between gas hydrate-and free gas-bearing layers.However,the gas hydrate saturation value at the adjacent canyon is 70%,with 30-m-thick patches and linear features.The lithological and fault controls on gas hydrate and free gas distributions are demonstrated by tracing each gas hydrate-bearing layer.Moreover,the BSR depths based on broad-band reprocessed 3D seismic data not only exhibit variations due to small-scale topographic changes caused by seafloor sedimentation and erosion but also show the upward shift of BSR and the blocky distribution of the coexistence of gas hydrate and free gas in the Pearl River Mouth Basin.

Model-Free Feature Screening via Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) for Ultrahigh-Dimensional Multiclass Classification

It is common for datasets to contain both categorical and continuous variables. However, many feature screening methods designed for high-dimensional classification assume that the variables are continuous. This limits the applicability of existing methods in handling this complex scenario. To address this issue, we propose a model-free feature screening approach for ultra-high-dimensional multi-classification that can handle both categorical and continuous variables. Our proposed feature screening method utilizes the Maximal Information Coefficient to assess the predictive power of the variables. By satisfying certain regularity conditions, we have proven that our screening procedure possesses the sure screening property and ranking consistency properties. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct simulation studies and provide real data analysis examples to demonstrate its performance in finite samples. In summary, our proposed method offers a solution for effectively screening features in ultra-high-dimensional datasets with a mixture of categorical and continuous covariates.

Model-Free Ultra-High-Dimensional Feature Screening for Multi-Classified Response Data Based on Weighted Jensen-Shannon Divergence

In ultra-high-dimensional data, it is common for the response variable to be multi-classified. Therefore, this paper proposes a model-free screening method for variables whose response variable is multi-classified from the point of view of introducing Jensen-Shannon divergence to measure the importance of covariates. The idea of the method is to calculate the Jensen-Shannon divergence between the conditional probability distribution of the covariates on a given response variable and the unconditional probability distribution of the covariates, and then use the probabilities of the response variables as weights to calculate the weighted Jensen-Shannon divergence, where a larger weighted Jensen-Shannon divergence means that the covariates are more important. Additionally, we also investigated an adapted version of the method, which is to measure the relationship between the covariates and the response variable using the weighted Jensen-Shannon divergence adjusted by the logarithmic factor of the number of categories when the number of categories in each covariate varies. Then, through both theoretical and simulation experiments, it was demonstrated that the proposed methods have sure screening and ranking consistency properties. Finally, the results from simulation and real-dataset experiments show that in feature screening, the proposed methods investigated are robust in performance and faster in computational speed compared with an existing method.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

Evolution and Prospects of Foundation Models: From Large Language Models to Large Multimodal Models

Since the 1950s,when the Turing Test was introduced,there has been notable progress in machine language intelligence.Language modeling,crucial for AI development,has evolved from statistical to neural models over the last two decades.Recently,transformer-based Pre-trained Language Models(PLM)have excelled in Natural Language Processing(NLP)tasks by leveraging large-scale training corpora.Increasing the scale of these models enhances performance significantly,introducing abilities like context learning that smaller models lack.The advancement in Large Language Models,exemplified by the development of ChatGPT,has made significant impacts both academically and industrially,capturing widespread societal interest.This survey provides an overview of the development and prospects from Large Language Models(LLM)to Large Multimodal Models(LMM).It first discusses the contributions and technological advancements of LLMs in the field of natural language processing,especially in text generation and language understanding.Then,it turns to the discussion of LMMs,which integrates various data modalities such as text,images,and sound,demonstrating advanced capabilities in understanding and generating cross-modal content,paving new pathways for the adaptability and flexibility of AI systems.Finally,the survey highlights the prospects of LMMs in terms of technological development and application potential,while also pointing out challenges in data integration,cross-modal understanding accuracy,providing a comprehensive perspective on the latest developments in this field.

Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.