The basic principle and method of Grey Model prediction are presented. In view of the defects of general GM(1,1) model, an improved method is proposed. That is using the particle swarm optimization algorithm to obtain...The basic principle and method of Grey Model prediction are presented. In view of the defects of general GM(1,1) model, an improved method is proposed. That is using the particle swarm optimization algorithm to obtain the best forecast dimension and using metabolism to make the model parameters adaptively change. Finally, the improved Grey Model is used to predict the fault of high voltage power supply circuit of a certain type of modern air-borne radar. The results which are computed and simulated by Matlab software show that the forecast precision of improved Grey Model is higher than that of original Grey Model.展开更多
The modernization of water conservancy project management is a complicated engineering system involving a management system, a management method, management personnel, the exertion of social, economic, and ecological ...The modernization of water conservancy project management is a complicated engineering system involving a management system, a management method, management personnel, the exertion of social, economic, and ecological effects, and so on. However, indices for evaluating the modernization of water conservancy project management are usually unobtainable in practical applications. Conducting appropriate extension of the classical rough set theory and then applying it to an incomplete information system are the key to the application of the rough set theory Based on analysis of some extended rough set models in incomplete information systems, a rough set model based on the θ-improved limited tolerance relation is put forward. At the same time, upper approximation and lower approximation are defined under this improved relation. According to the evaluation index system and management practices, the threshold for θ is defined. An example study indicates the practicability and maneuverability of the model.展开更多
The factors affecting the adoption of modern varieties(MVs) of rice and impact on poverty in Odisha, India were discussed. A total of 363 households from Cuttack and Sambalpur districts of Odisha via multistage sampli...The factors affecting the adoption of modern varieties(MVs) of rice and impact on poverty in Odisha, India were discussed. A total of 363 households from Cuttack and Sambalpur districts of Odisha via multistage sampling technique participated in the survey. The Cragg's Double hurdle model was used to model the determinants of adoption and intensity of adoption of MVs of rice, and the propensity score matching was used to analyze the impact of adoption on poverty. The results showed that age, education, risk aversion, land size, yield, perception of MVs as high yielding, resistant to diseases and availability of MVs positively influenced the decision to adopt. However, variables such as household size, experience of a farmer, off-farm job participation, amount of credit received, cost of seeds, insecticides and fertilizers negatively influenced the adoption of MVs. Intensity of adoption of MVs was negatively influenced by experience of a farmer, cost of fertilizer and marketability of MVs, and positively affected by household size, risk aversion, land size, cost of insecticides, perception of MVs as high yielding and availability of MV seeds. Poverty incidence, gap and severity were high among non-adopters to adopters of MVs. After matching adopters and non-adopters of MV groups using four different algorithms of nearest neighbour matching, stratification matching, radius matching and kernel matching, the impact of MV adoption resulted in higher per capita monthly household expenditure by about US$ 52.82 to US$ 63.17.展开更多
Based on the experience and lessons of modern apprenticeship in the UK,this paper analyzes the problems existing in the process of the training of business English majors in higher vocational colleges in China,and put...Based on the experience and lessons of modern apprenticeship in the UK,this paper analyzes the problems existing in the process of the training of business English majors in higher vocational colleges in China,and puts forward the“three identities in four phases”personnel training model which is suitable for the business English majors in higher vocational colleges in China.It provides a reference for the development of business English majors in relevant higher vocational colleges.展开更多
This paper classifies the scenario elements which affect the real-time information needs of mobile commerce users, and proposes a nomination model that integrates the user’s personalized context elements. In this mod...This paper classifies the scenario elements which affect the real-time information needs of mobile commerce users, and proposes a nomination model that integrates the user’s personalized context elements. In this model, the top K scenarios that have the greatest impact on each user’s instant information demands are calculated from the user’s current scenario and historical data, thereby constructing a user personalized situation and improving it as an input condition that existing scenario-based multi-dimensional information recommendation algorithm is used for project nomination. Result/Conclusion: The improved algorithm and other three algorithms were compared by Movie lens and MBook Crossing dataset. The experimental results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy and can effectively improve user satisfaction and more effectively and solve personalized nomination issues in a mobile commerce environment.展开更多
The synchronous development of industrialization,urbanization,agricultural modernization and informatization is the basic trend and future requirements of China's economic and social development. By using the rele...The synchronous development of industrialization,urbanization,agricultural modernization and informatization is the basic trend and future requirements of China's economic and social development. By using the relevant data of 1978- 2011,and establishing the VAR model,we find that in the short term,industrialization is the Granger cause of urbanization; urbanization is the Granger cause of industrialization,informatization,and agricultural modernization; agricultural modernization is the Granger cause of industrialization,informatization and urbanization; informatization is the Granger reason of industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization. In the long run,there are long-term and stable relations among them,and at the same time,their changes affect the structure of each other,and there are pulling effect among them.展开更多
Arsi zone is one of the Oromia regional state’s zones with high potential of honey and bees wax production and where there was dissemination of modern beehives. This research was initiated with objectives of quantify...Arsi zone is one of the Oromia regional state’s zones with high potential of honey and bees wax production and where there was dissemination of modern beehives. This research was initiated with objectives of quantifying adoption rate of modern beehives and its determinant factors and drawing policy implication for further extension of the technology. The study was conducted in seven districts of Arsi zone and 251 rural beekeepers were interviewed. The average productivity of the modern beehives and local beehives was found to be 19.77 kg/hive and 5.13 kg/hive. The total number of local bee hives possessed by interviewed beekeepers was found to be 1201 while that of modern beehives was found to be 279 hives which shows that the adoption rate is low and if we increase the adoption rate by 50%, the amount of honey harvest will increases by 11,862 kg which is about 5700 kg more than the total honey beekeepers can get from keeping the whole 1201 local hives. Chemical application (herbicides and pesticides), bee predators, lack of knowledge and skill on modern beehives, lack of modern beehive accessories, lack of bee forage and lack of capital were major beekeeping bottlenecks. The result of binary Logit model revealed that the main determinants of adoption are farmyard size, number of local hives beekeepers possessed, training provided, participation on demonstration, wealth status of beekeepers, and participation of beekeepers on nonfarm income sources. Provision of different information towards increasing or improving the saving capacity or culture of beekeepers, provision of adequate and relevant agricultural extension services (such as training on modern beekeeping technologies and experience sharing among beekeepers), provision of credit services to widen the financial bases of poor beekeepers and facilitating access to modern beehives and its accessories especially honey extractor and wax stumper which can increase beehives productivity were the recommendation that was drawn from the output of this research.展开更多
The innovation of organizational model of tobacco production is the key to realization of sustainable development of tobacco production in China. From the perspective of sustainable development, we analyze the necessi...The innovation of organizational model of tobacco production is the key to realization of sustainable development of tobacco production in China. From the perspective of sustainable development, we analyze the necessity of innovation of organizational model of tobacco production, put forward the principles on innovation of organizational model of tobacco production, and offer corresponding recommendations for the ways of innovation of organizational model of tobacco production.展开更多
This paper studies the industrialization of China, a key problem of Chinese economic development with self-organization theory in system science. The dual economic structure of modern industry and traditional agricult...This paper studies the industrialization of China, a key problem of Chinese economic development with self-organization theory in system science. The dual economic structure of modern industry and traditional agriculture existing simultaneously is the typical economic structure for most developing countries. How can we break the dual economic structure? After China has carried out the peasant family output-related system of contracted responsibilities, the rural enterprises which develop swiftly and violently are setting up a bridge between traditional agriculture and modern industry. This paper models the triple economic structure formed by traditional agriculture, rural enterprises and modern industry. From the study of structure evolution, we obtain the important relationship between economic growth rate, the rate of technological progress, the growth rate of capital and the growth rate of population, deduce three critical points of population growth, and find out the conditions under which the national economic system forms a stable and orderly self-organized structure. On the basis of quantitative analysis, we propose an approach to the strategies of industrialization of China, especially to the problem of rural enterprise development and rural labor transfer, and give three conclusions and four developmental strategies about national economic system.展开更多
The efficient and coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization(so called 'Sihua Tongbu' in China, and hereinafter referred to as 'four moderniz...The efficient and coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization(so called 'Sihua Tongbu' in China, and hereinafter referred to as 'four modernizations') is not only a practical need but also an important strategic direction of integrating urban-rural development and regional development in recent China. This paper evaluated the comprehensive, coupling and coordinated developmental indices of 'four modernizations' of China's 343 prefecture-level administrative units, and calculated their efficiency of 'four modernizations' in 2001 and 2011. The efficiency evaluation index system was established. The efficiencies and their changing trend during the period 2001–2011 were investigated using the data envelopment analysis(DEA) model. Spatial-temporal pattern of the efficiency of China's prefecture-level units was explored by using exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA). Finally, the main influencing factors were revealed with the aid of geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. Results indicate that the comprehensive, coupling and coordinated developmental indices and efficiency of 'four modernizations' of China's prefecture-level administrative units have obvious spatial differences and show diverse regional patterns. Overall, the efficiency is relatively low, and only few units with small urban populations and economic scale are in DEA efficiencies. The efficiency changing trends were decreasing during 2001–2011, with a transfer of high efficiency areas from inland to eastern coastal areas. The difference between urban and rural per capita investment in fixed assets boasts the greatest influence on the efficiency.展开更多
翻转课堂通过对知识传授和知识内化的颠倒安排,改变了传统教学中的师生角色,并对课堂时间的使用进行了重新规划,实现了对传统教学模式的革新。文中尝试将"Flipped Class Model"用于现代机械创新产品分析与设计教学中,并以《...翻转课堂通过对知识传授和知识内化的颠倒安排,改变了传统教学中的师生角色,并对课堂时间的使用进行了重新规划,实现了对传统教学模式的革新。文中尝试将"Flipped Class Model"用于现代机械创新产品分析与设计教学中,并以《现代机床》为例分析说明,以期为我国的机械课程教学改革提供借鉴。展开更多
文摘The basic principle and method of Grey Model prediction are presented. In view of the defects of general GM(1,1) model, an improved method is proposed. That is using the particle swarm optimization algorithm to obtain the best forecast dimension and using metabolism to make the model parameters adaptively change. Finally, the improved Grey Model is used to predict the fault of high voltage power supply circuit of a certain type of modern air-borne radar. The results which are computed and simulated by Matlab software show that the forecast precision of improved Grey Model is higher than that of original Grey Model.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2013B102008)the Open Fund of the Yellow River Committee(Grant No.2011535012)
文摘The modernization of water conservancy project management is a complicated engineering system involving a management system, a management method, management personnel, the exertion of social, economic, and ecological effects, and so on. However, indices for evaluating the modernization of water conservancy project management are usually unobtainable in practical applications. Conducting appropriate extension of the classical rough set theory and then applying it to an incomplete information system are the key to the application of the rough set theory Based on analysis of some extended rough set models in incomplete information systems, a rough set model based on the θ-improved limited tolerance relation is put forward. At the same time, upper approximation and lower approximation are defined under this improved relation. According to the evaluation index system and management practices, the threshold for θ is defined. An example study indicates the practicability and maneuverability of the model.
基金supported by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (2017–2018) through the Government of India under CV Raman Post-Doctoral Fellowship for African Researchers
文摘The factors affecting the adoption of modern varieties(MVs) of rice and impact on poverty in Odisha, India were discussed. A total of 363 households from Cuttack and Sambalpur districts of Odisha via multistage sampling technique participated in the survey. The Cragg's Double hurdle model was used to model the determinants of adoption and intensity of adoption of MVs of rice, and the propensity score matching was used to analyze the impact of adoption on poverty. The results showed that age, education, risk aversion, land size, yield, perception of MVs as high yielding, resistant to diseases and availability of MVs positively influenced the decision to adopt. However, variables such as household size, experience of a farmer, off-farm job participation, amount of credit received, cost of seeds, insecticides and fertilizers negatively influenced the adoption of MVs. Intensity of adoption of MVs was negatively influenced by experience of a farmer, cost of fertilizer and marketability of MVs, and positively affected by household size, risk aversion, land size, cost of insecticides, perception of MVs as high yielding and availability of MV seeds. Poverty incidence, gap and severity were high among non-adopters to adopters of MVs. After matching adopters and non-adopters of MV groups using four different algorithms of nearest neighbour matching, stratification matching, radius matching and kernel matching, the impact of MV adoption resulted in higher per capita monthly household expenditure by about US$ 52.82 to US$ 63.17.
文摘Based on the experience and lessons of modern apprenticeship in the UK,this paper analyzes the problems existing in the process of the training of business English majors in higher vocational colleges in China,and puts forward the“three identities in four phases”personnel training model which is suitable for the business English majors in higher vocational colleges in China.It provides a reference for the development of business English majors in relevant higher vocational colleges.
文摘This paper classifies the scenario elements which affect the real-time information needs of mobile commerce users, and proposes a nomination model that integrates the user’s personalized context elements. In this model, the top K scenarios that have the greatest impact on each user’s instant information demands are calculated from the user’s current scenario and historical data, thereby constructing a user personalized situation and improving it as an input condition that existing scenario-based multi-dimensional information recommendation algorithm is used for project nomination. Result/Conclusion: The improved algorithm and other three algorithms were compared by Movie lens and MBook Crossing dataset. The experimental results show that the model has higher prediction accuracy and can effectively improve user satisfaction and more effectively and solve personalized nomination issues in a mobile commerce environment.
基金Supported by Key National Social Science Fund Project(12&ZD100)Key Humanities and Social Sciences Project in Chongqing City(11SKB36,12SKB003)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(SWU1309375,SWU1309003,SWU1309386)Teaching Reform Project of Southwest University(2013JY087)
文摘The synchronous development of industrialization,urbanization,agricultural modernization and informatization is the basic trend and future requirements of China's economic and social development. By using the relevant data of 1978- 2011,and establishing the VAR model,we find that in the short term,industrialization is the Granger cause of urbanization; urbanization is the Granger cause of industrialization,informatization,and agricultural modernization; agricultural modernization is the Granger cause of industrialization,informatization and urbanization; informatization is the Granger reason of industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization. In the long run,there are long-term and stable relations among them,and at the same time,their changes affect the structure of each other,and there are pulling effect among them.
文摘Arsi zone is one of the Oromia regional state’s zones with high potential of honey and bees wax production and where there was dissemination of modern beehives. This research was initiated with objectives of quantifying adoption rate of modern beehives and its determinant factors and drawing policy implication for further extension of the technology. The study was conducted in seven districts of Arsi zone and 251 rural beekeepers were interviewed. The average productivity of the modern beehives and local beehives was found to be 19.77 kg/hive and 5.13 kg/hive. The total number of local bee hives possessed by interviewed beekeepers was found to be 1201 while that of modern beehives was found to be 279 hives which shows that the adoption rate is low and if we increase the adoption rate by 50%, the amount of honey harvest will increases by 11,862 kg which is about 5700 kg more than the total honey beekeepers can get from keeping the whole 1201 local hives. Chemical application (herbicides and pesticides), bee predators, lack of knowledge and skill on modern beehives, lack of modern beehive accessories, lack of bee forage and lack of capital were major beekeeping bottlenecks. The result of binary Logit model revealed that the main determinants of adoption are farmyard size, number of local hives beekeepers possessed, training provided, participation on demonstration, wealth status of beekeepers, and participation of beekeepers on nonfarm income sources. Provision of different information towards increasing or improving the saving capacity or culture of beekeepers, provision of adequate and relevant agricultural extension services (such as training on modern beekeeping technologies and experience sharing among beekeepers), provision of credit services to widen the financial bases of poor beekeepers and facilitating access to modern beehives and its accessories especially honey extractor and wax stumper which can increase beehives productivity were the recommendation that was drawn from the output of this research.
基金Supported by Technology Project of Sichuan Tobacco Monopoly Administration(201102014)
文摘The innovation of organizational model of tobacco production is the key to realization of sustainable development of tobacco production in China. From the perspective of sustainable development, we analyze the necessity of innovation of organizational model of tobacco production, put forward the principles on innovation of organizational model of tobacco production, and offer corresponding recommendations for the ways of innovation of organizational model of tobacco production.
文摘This paper studies the industrialization of China, a key problem of Chinese economic development with self-organization theory in system science. The dual economic structure of modern industry and traditional agriculture existing simultaneously is the typical economic structure for most developing countries. How can we break the dual economic structure? After China has carried out the peasant family output-related system of contracted responsibilities, the rural enterprises which develop swiftly and violently are setting up a bridge between traditional agriculture and modern industry. This paper models the triple economic structure formed by traditional agriculture, rural enterprises and modern industry. From the study of structure evolution, we obtain the important relationship between economic growth rate, the rate of technological progress, the growth rate of capital and the growth rate of population, deduce three critical points of population growth, and find out the conditions under which the national economic system forms a stable and orderly self-organized structure. On the basis of quantitative analysis, we propose an approach to the strategies of industrialization of China, especially to the problem of rural enterprise development and rural labor transfer, and give three conclusions and four developmental strategies about national economic system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41361040)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Provincial Universities of Gansu Province (No. 2014-63)
文摘The efficient and coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization(so called 'Sihua Tongbu' in China, and hereinafter referred to as 'four modernizations') is not only a practical need but also an important strategic direction of integrating urban-rural development and regional development in recent China. This paper evaluated the comprehensive, coupling and coordinated developmental indices of 'four modernizations' of China's 343 prefecture-level administrative units, and calculated their efficiency of 'four modernizations' in 2001 and 2011. The efficiency evaluation index system was established. The efficiencies and their changing trend during the period 2001–2011 were investigated using the data envelopment analysis(DEA) model. Spatial-temporal pattern of the efficiency of China's prefecture-level units was explored by using exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA). Finally, the main influencing factors were revealed with the aid of geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. Results indicate that the comprehensive, coupling and coordinated developmental indices and efficiency of 'four modernizations' of China's prefecture-level administrative units have obvious spatial differences and show diverse regional patterns. Overall, the efficiency is relatively low, and only few units with small urban populations and economic scale are in DEA efficiencies. The efficiency changing trends were decreasing during 2001–2011, with a transfer of high efficiency areas from inland to eastern coastal areas. The difference between urban and rural per capita investment in fixed assets boasts the greatest influence on the efficiency.