Westerlies Affecting the Seasonal Variation of Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.

CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Precipitation over Northern China:Further Investigation

Based on 20 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),this article explored possible reasons for differences in simulation biases and projected changes in precipitation in northern China among the allmodel ensemble(AMME),“highest-ranked”model ensemble(BMME),and“lowest-ranked”model ensemble(WMME),from the perspective of atmospheric circulations and moisture budgets.The results show that the BMME and AMME reproduce the East Asian winter circulations better than the WMME.Compared with the AMME and WMME,the BMME reduces the overestimation of evaporation,thereby improving the simulation of winter precipitation.The three ensemble simulated biases for the East Asian summer circulations are generally similar,characterized by a stronger zonal pressure gradient between the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and East Asia and a northward displacement of the East Asian westerly jet.However,the simulated vertical moisture advection is improved in the BMME,contributing to the slightly higher performance of the BMME than the AMME and WMME on summer precipitation in North and Northeast China.Compared to the AMME and WMME,the BMME projects larger increases in precipitation in northern China during both seasons by the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5).One of the reasons is that the increase in evaporation projected by the BMME is larger.The projection of a greater dynamic contribution by the BMME also plays a role.In addition,larger changes in the nonlinear components in the BMME projection contribute to a larger increase in winter precipitation in northern China.

Modulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity by the Tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean Associated Mode

In this study,the impacts of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode(PIOAM)on Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)activity were investigated using reanalysis data.In the positive(negative)phase of the PIOAM,the amplitudes of MJO zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation are significantly weakened(enhanced)over the Indian Ocean,while they are enhanced(weakened)over the central and eastern Pacific.The eastward propagation of the MJO can extend to the central Pacific in the positive phase of the PIOAM,whereas it is mainly confined to west of 160°E in the negative phase.The PIOAM impacts MJO activity by modifying the atmospheric circulation and moisture budget.Anomalous ascending(descending)motion and positive(negative)moisture anomalies occur over the western Indian Ocean and central-eastern Pacific(Maritime Continent and western Pacific)during the positive phase of the PIOAM.The anomalous circulation is almost the opposite in the negative phases of the PIOAM.This anomalous circulation and moisture can modulate the activity of the MJO.The stronger moistening over the Indian Ocean induced by zonal and vertical moisture advection leads to the stronger MJO activity over the Indian Ocean in the negative phase of the PIOAM.During the positive phase of the PIOAM,the MJO propagates farther east over the central Pacific owing to the stronger moistening there,which is mainly attributable to the meridional and vertical moisture advection,especially low-frequency background state moisture advection by the MJO’s meridional and vertical velocities.

Development and Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclone OCKHI(2017)over the North Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone OCKHI over the North Indian Ocean during 2017 underwent dramatic development and rapid intensification very close to the land-Sri Lanka,extreme South Indian coast and Lakshadweep area during its initial developmental stage and caused extensive damages over these areas.On examining the physical and structural mechanism involved in such development,it is observed that the initial development was associated with axi-symmetrisation of the vortex that could be associated with Vortex Rossby waves near the eyewall.Associated with the expulsion of high vorticity from the centre during asymmetry mixing,there was outward propagation of eddy angular momentum flux in the lower levels that strengthened a low level anticyclone to the northeast of the TC centre which in turn enhanced the cyclonic inflow near the TC centre.The rapid intensification phase was associated with vertical non-uniform heating with upper and lower tropospheric warming associated with latent heat release in convection.During the mature phase,the system sustained‘very severe’intensity even under increasing vertical shear and lower ocean heat flux under the influence of a break in the sub tropical ridge to the north of the system centre that enhanced the poleward outflow in the upper troposphere.

Cloud Water Resource in North China in 2017 Simulated by the CMA-CPEFS Cloud Resolving Model:Validation and Quantification

Based on the concept of cloud water resource(CWR)and the cloud microphysical scheme developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS),a coupled mesoscale and cloud-resolving model system is developed in the study for CWR numerical quantification(CWR-NQ)in North China for 2017.The results show that(1)the model system is stable and capable for performing 1-yr continuous simulation with a water budget error of less than 0.2%,which indicates a good water balance.(2)Compared with the observational data,it is confirmed that the simulating capability of the CWR-NQ approach is decent for the spatial distribution of yearly cumulative precipitation,daily precipitation intensity,yearly average spatial distribution of water vapor.(3)Compared with the CWR diagnostic quantification(CWR-DQ),the results from the CWR-NQ differ mainly in cloud condensation and cloud evaporation.However,the deviation of the net condensation(condensation minus evaporation)between the two methods is less than 1%.For other composition variables,such as water vapor advection,surface evaporation,precipitation,cloud condensation,and total atmospheric water substances,the relative differences between the CWR-NQ and the CWR-DQ are less than 5%.(4)The spatiotemporal features of the CWR in North China are also studied.The positive correlation between water vapor convergence and precipitation on monthly and seasonal scales,and the lag of precipitation relative to water vapor convergence on hourly and daily scales are analyzed in detail,indicating the significance of the state term on hourly and daily scales.The effects of different spatial scales on the state term,advection term,source-sink term,and total amount are analyzed.It is shown that the advective term varies greatly at different spatiotemporal scales,which leads to differences at different spatiotemporal scales in CWR and related characteristic quantities.