Evaluation of Two Momentum Control Variable Schemes and Their Impact on the Variational Assimilation of Radar Wind Data:Case Study of a Squall Line

Different choices of control variables in variational assimilation can bring about different influences on the analyzed atmospheric state. Based on the WRF model＇s three-dimensional variational assimilation system, this study compares the be- havior of two momentum control variable options-streamfunction velocity potential （ψ-χ） and horizontal wind components （U-V）-in radar wind data assimilation for a squall line case that occurred in Jiangsu Province on 24 August 2014. The wind increment from the single observation test shows that the ψ-χ control variable scheme produces negative increments in the neighborhood around the observation point because streamfunction and velocity potential preserve integrals of velocity. On the contrary, the U-V control variable scheme objectively reflects the information of the observation itself. Furthermore, radial velocity data from 17 Doppler radars in eastern China are assimilated. As compared to the impact of conventional observation, the assimilation of radar radial velocity based on the U-V control variable scheme significantly improves the mesoscale dynamic field in the initial condition. The enhanced low-level jet stream, water vapor convergence and low-level wind shear result in better squall line forecasting. However, the ψ-χ control variable scheme generates a discontinuous wind field and unrealistic convergence/divergence in the analyzed field, which lead to a degraded precipitation forecast.

Multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the axial atmospheric angular momentum

Earth＇s variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM（atmospheric angular momentum）. In particular, the axial AAM component X_3, which undergoes especially strong variations,induces changes in the Earth＇s rotation rate. In this study we analysed maps of regional input into the effective axial AAM from 1948 through 2011 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Global zonal circulation patterns related to the LOD（length of day） were described. We applied MSSA（Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis） jointly to the mass and motion components of AAM, which allowed us to extract annual, semiannual, 4-mo nth, quasi-biennial, 5-year, and low-frequency oscillations. PCs（Principal components） strongly related to ENSO（El Nino southern oscillation） were released. They can be used to study ENSO-induced changes in pressure and wind fields and their coupling to LOD. The PCs describing the trends have captured slow atmospheric circulation changes possibly related to climate variability.

Atmospheric and Oceanic Excitations to LOD Change on Quasi-biennial Tune Scales

We use wavelet transform to study the time series of the Earth＇s rotation rate （length-of-day, LOD）, the axial components of atmospheric angular momentum （AAM） and oceanic angular momentum （OAM） in the period 1962-2005, and discuss the quasi-biennial oscillations （QBO） of LOD change. The results show that the QBO of LOD change varies remarkably in amplitude and phase. It was weak before 1978, then became much stronger and reached maximum values during the strong El Nino events in around 1983 and 1997. Results from analyzing the axial AAM indicate that the QBO signals in axial AAM are extremely consistent with the QBOs of LOD change. During 1963-2003, the QBO variance in the axial AAM can explain about 99.0% of that of the LOD, in other words, all QBO signals of LOD change are almost excited by the axial AAM, while the weak QBO signals of the axial OAM are quite different from those of the LOD and the axial AAM in both time-dependent characteristics and magnitudes. The combined effects of the axial AAM and OAM can explain about 99.1% of the variance of QBO in LOD change during this period.