The Impact of the Monetary Policy During the COVID-19 in the Brazilian Banking Sector

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an outbreak on the global productive chains,transforming companies and society in general.Governments adopted anticyclical policies such as basic interest rates reduction as response.Brazil basic interest rate is denominated Selic.The application of these policies requires the protagonist of bank’s financial intermediation.This study aims to verify two events-under the perspective of the efficient markets’theory.The first is the communication of the first death by COVID-19-and the subsequent,Selic rate reduction to 2%p.a.-and its effects on bank’s shares prices.The hypotheses presented are:H1-The announcement of the first death by COVID-19 negatively impacts the banks’shares returns and H2-The announcement of the Selic interest rate-during the COVID-19-positively impacts the return of the banks’shares.We adopt event study methodology in a final sample of nine and 15 banks to Events 1 and 2 respectively.The results confirm H1 as well as the semi-strong informational efficiency market.H2 is not confirmed.Results confirm the non-effectiveness of the anticyclical policy of basic interest rate reduction.This contributes to the discussion about the impacts of COVID-19 and the efficacy of anticyclical policies.

Conjuncture Cycles and Monetary Anomalies Are Unwelcome Guests for Sustainability

Economic cycles are not economic evils but rather healing agents for returning to equilibrium,just as inflation and deflation are not economic misfortunes but the sign of bad governance and a bitter medicine for returning to calm monetary.Unfortunately,signs of poor governance are mistaken for unfortunate events,but are instead tools offered to restore economic systems.Politics seeks consensus and does not accept the bitter cure of recession.Monetary policy is therefore called into question even if monetary anomalies also depend on errors in the management of the economy;the result is the gradual increase in interest rates.Is the idea that we can achieve the goal of complete neutrality with nature acceptable in a global economic framework pervaded by inflation and denunciation?Can we similarly argue that economic problems can coexist once the goal of neutrality has been achieved?The answer is negative.We must correct these anomalies and dysfunctions of the economy,which cannot coexist in the new context of complete and indefinite equilibrium of tomorrow.And not even the idea that conflicts can be resolved with war seems to find a place in the renewed scenario of neutrality.In this regard we can remember that,when we have reached the economic optimum of complete neutrality,or at least we are close to it,the most socially and economically advanced territories and continents will benefit from an acceleration of productivity and development.Scarcity itself will give way to the new,long-awaited reality.A condition that approaches the state of abundance and which will produce surpluses to be allocated to countries and territories that are struggling towards the condition of neutrality.The acceleration of lagging continents and the recovery of altered economic systems are therefore preconditions that can allow us to access the state of global neutrality.As we get closer to the great objective,it is to be believed that the pretense of regulating conflicts through war will also disappear.With the new reality of abundance,the economic reason for war disappears,while the aspiration of peoples-inscribed in their DNA-for solidarity and peaceful aggregation towards substantial unity becomes clear.

China’s Monetary Policy Impacts on Money and Stock Markets

This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.

Research on the Problems and Countermeasures of Monetary Capital Internal Control in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)constitute the primary drivers of production within the nation’s existing enterprise landscape.They represent the most dynamic segment of the national economy and play a pivotal role in supporting economic growth,fostering employment,and enhancing people’s livelihoods.However,despite their significant and extensive organizational structures,only a fraction of these companies have established internal control systems,and even fewer possess robust ones.Building upon this premise and considering the prevailing circumstances of SMEs,this paper undertakes an empirical analysis of monetary fund management within this sector.It delves into the operational intricacies,exploring how monetary funds should be effectively implemented to ensure their safety and integrity.Furthermore,it proposes viable strategies to enhance the circulation efficiency of monetary funds,thereby maximizing benefits for enterprises.Addressing these challenges is crucial for SME managers striving to achieve sustainable profit growth and navigate the complexities of financial management.

Nonlinear dynamics in Divisia monetary aggregates:an application of recurrence quantification analysis

We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.

Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

After the Euro and Interstate Banking:Present Monetary and Financial Surfacing Conflicts 2023

This paper reconsiders the outcome of the adoption of a single legal currency in the 1999 Euro Act. Installing a central bank, several different solutions surfaced among the EU members and in the global economy, since the 1922 Genoa summit. The last Euro solution came after the severe, unexpected stock market crash on October 19, 1987. Furthermore, the sub-prime bubble 2007, the financial collapse 2008 and the final 2012 the banking melt down, induce to reconsider the overlapping monetary and financial fallouts. The 89 Interstate Banking Act and the Riegle Community Development and Regulatory Improvement Act of 1994, induce a monetary and financial evolving infrastructure. This paper focuses on the conflicts at the enlarging EU community seen the unavoidable monetary and financial integration, considering that the unique definition of the monetary functions as its essence is misinterpreted, in a clear common asymmetry affecting the whole evolving situation.

Generational Gap： Intrinsic （Non-monetary） Versus Extrinsic （Monetary） Rewards in the Workforce

Traditionally, organizations assume that compensation/pay and monetary benefits are what all employees need to work harder, be productive, or remain with the company. According to Abraham Maslow, within every person is a hierarchy of five needs： physiological needs, safety needs, social needs, esteem needs, and self-actualization needs Organizations must be able to identify what employees desire to secure optimum performance and to meet the needs of both employees and employers. This research focuses on the generational gap and the significance of intrinsic and extrinsic rewards in the workforce. The purpose and objective of this research are to test the significance of monetary versus non-monetary rewards among the different generations in the organization. A self-designed questionnaire distributed to a multi-generational group of employees of selected organizations was used to collect the analyzed data. Sixty-five （65%） responses were obtained. Secondary data were used to elucidate the needs in this area of study. Because the workforce is predicted to become more diverse in terms of age, organizations will be unlikely to implement one set of rewards for the multiple generations. This is due to the differing expectations and requirements among the generations. However, the results indicate no significant difference in monetary versus non-monetary rewards among the different generations in the workforce.

Applied Mathematical Theory for Monetary-Fiscal Interaction in a Supranational Monetary Union

I utilize a differentiable dynamical system á la Lotka-Voletrra and explain monetary and fiscal interaction in a supranational monetary union. The paper demonstrates an applied mathematical approach that provides useful insights about the interaction mechanisms in theoretical economics in general and a monetary union in particular. I find that a common central bank is necessary but not sufficient to tackle the new interaction problems in a supranational monetary union, such as the free-riding behaviour of fiscal policies. Moreover, I show that supranational institutions, rules or laws are essential to mitigate violations of decentralized fiscal policies.

China’s Institutional Strength,Monetary Policy Coordination and Fiscal Crowding-in Effect

As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis of Monetary Policy in Thailand

This paper highlights the importance of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Thailand since the 1997 financial crisis and then undertakes an empirical investigation of Thailand monetary policy. This study makes effort to address both two aspects of monetary transmission mechanism, namely channels of monetary policy and the effect of monetary policy shocks on key macroeconomic variables. To address these issues, the paper specifies structural vector autoregressive （SVAR） models and estimates them using quarterly data from 1997q3 to 2014q4. The identification schemes used in this paper follow Kim and Roubini and Raghavan, Silvapulle, and Athanasopoulos with some modifications. The overall result is that the identifying restrictions used in the SVAR seem to appropriately identify a monetary policy shock even though the exchange rate puzzle is found. The results show that interest rate and monetary aggregate have played the dominant channels of monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand, while an exchange rate channel is decreasingly significant. In addition, Thailand economy is somewhat exposed to the foreign sector especially for the world price of oil and the U.S. monetary policy. The results also reveal the linkage and influence of U.S. monetary policy on Thailand monetary policy. The empirical findings are then used to provide Bank of Thailand （BOT） with insight into identifying the important monetary policy transmission channels. It would help the BOT to implement an effective monetary policy for achieving price stability through the appropriate monetary channels.

Dynamic Quantity Theory of Money:Research on Monetary Cycle and Business Cycle Based on the Concepts of Issuing Money and Operating Money

The Quantity Theory of Money and the Theory of Credit Creation have been the major streams in the study of the quantity of money.Nowadays,monetary theory is dominated by the Quantity Theory of Money because the Monetarist School and the Rational Expectation School are both the advocates of the Quantity Theory of Money,which has resulted in a sharp decrease of scholars studying the Theory of Credit Creation.Nevertheless,the two theories will ultimately converge.Given that reason,we propose a new theory-Dynamic Quantity Theory of Money in this paper,by which the unification of the Quantity Theory of Money and the Theory of Credit Creation can be achieved.Based on the Dynamic Quantity Theory of Money,we further put forward the Theory of Money Operation Cycle,the Theory of Monetary Compensation and Theory of Investment Compensation targeting economic crises,expound why Quantitative Easing monetary policy fails and why Quantitative Easing does not cause inflation in the short term under the premise of these theories,and demonstrate the necessity of fiscal investment for rescuing economic crisis from the perspective of theories of money.

A global perspective on macroprudential policy interaction with systemic risk,real economic activity,and monetary intervention

The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.

Empirical research on the international spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy and their impacts

Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of synchronous effect. The structural impulse response analysis showed that U.S. monetary policy could improve U.S. income and payment without damaging U.S. economic growth, but the shocks negatively affected the economic growth in the rest of the world. Hence, it's important to pay close attention to the moral risks of U.S. monetary policy to evade the global shocks caused by the "benefit-itself-at-the-expense-of-others" polices of the American government. Besides these findings, U.S. monetary policy shocks strongly affect China's trade surplus fluctuations. Based on this, we propose that the approaches of balancing China's current account could be explored efficiently from the perspective of monetary policy.

Heterogeneous Responses of Chinese Cities' Housing Prices to Monetary Policies

This works examine the responses of housing prices to the monetary policies in various Chinese cities. Thirty-five large and medium sized Chinese cities are classified into six clusters applying the minimum variance clustering method according to the calculated correlation coefficients between the housing price indices of every two cities.Time difference correlation analysis is then employed to quantify the relations between the housing price indices of the six clusters and the monetary policies.It is suggested that the housing prices of various cities evolved at different paces and their responses to the monetary policies are heterogeneous,and local economic features are more important than geographic distances in determining the housing price trends.

Monetary policy rules：Forward-looking and backward-looking in an overlapping generations model

In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active forwardlooking rule than under the corresponding backward-looking rule. It is also shown that backward-looking roles can render the monetary steady state unstable.

WAVELET MODELING AND FORECASTING AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE CHINESE MONETARY MULTIPLIER

In this paper, a time_varying AR model is constructed by using the vector_space algorithm of compactly_supported biorthonormal wavelet transform. It is developed for forecasting narrow monetary multipliers in China .

Application of Monetary Unit Sampling Based on Extended Audit Game

On account of the lack of monetary unit sampling( MUS), an extended audit game model based on uncertainty information,which centers on audit risk and combines audit game with statistical sampling,is established to improve the effectiveness of audit risks analysis and sampling errors control. In this paper,an example concerning practical problems is given to demonstrate the process of extended audit game and confirm the truth of the effectiveness of the method. Not only does this method enhance the role of audit technology and the extension of audit procedures in deterring material irregularities,but also helps the auditors measure and control audit risk and sample sizes under uncertainty,conducive to improving the effect of cost control,risk evaluation,and decisionmaking optimization in audit sampling.

On the monetary measures of global liquidity

This study constructs and examines the dynamics of theoretical and atheoretical measures of global liquidity,using monthly data on the components of broad money over the period 2001 M12-2017 M12 for 39 high income countries.We group the countries into five regional blocks as categorized by the World Bank:East Asia and the Pacific,Europe and Central Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean,Middle East and North Africa,and North America.The atheoretical measures exploited by this study comprise of the simple-sum,GDP-weighted growth rates and PCA based aggregation methods;whereas theoretical measures include the currency equivalent and Divisia index techniques of monetary aggregation.We employ a graphical approach to investigate the trends and dynamics of the aggregates overtime,and a cross-correlation between cyclical components of global real economic activity and the lag of cyclical components of the measures of global liquidity to gauge the strength of their associations.The findings of this study reveal that theoretical measures outperform atheoretical ones in effective delineation of financial and liquidity conditions,and policy stance.Their cyclical components are also strongly associated with those of global real business activity.The currency equivalent measure,besides being a leading indicator of the shift in policy stance,has a sturdy association with global real business activity.Moreover,the theoretical measures,as noted by some empirical studies,contain some information content that the atheoretical lack.