Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction func.tions and Markov-switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992-2007. Our results show that fiseal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took plaee around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countereyclical in the pre-1998 period, then switched to be passive and more eountercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre-1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiseal policy.

China’s Institutional Strength,Monetary Policy Coordination and Fiscal Crowding-in Effect

As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.

China’s Monetary Policy Framework in the Past 70 Years:1949-2019

In this paper,we review the historical transformation of China’s monetary policy framework in a systematical way in the past 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,from the five dimensions of money creation mechanism,monetary policy objective,monetary policy instrument,monetary policy rule and monetary policy transmission channel.We then focus on the current policy framework and suggest its major characteristics:the base money creation mechanism is undergoing fundamental structural changes and the credit system is becoming more and more complex;the multip1e objectives of the monetary policy are prone to conflict with each other;quantitative tools and price-based tools coexist while the validity of various new structural tools still needs to be tested;the monetary policy decisions are mainly discretionary and clear quantitative rules have not been formed;the monetary policy transmission is still dominated by bank credit channels,and the transmission to real economy is partially blocked.In the end,we outline the four major challenges facing China’s existing monetary policy framework and put forward policy recommendations for its transformation in the future.