One of the vital components of the macroeconomic model that helps policymaking is the demand for money function.Having reliable predictions on the money demand function helps in determining the optimum growth of money...One of the vital components of the macroeconomic model that helps policymaking is the demand for money function.Having reliable predictions on the money demand function helps in determining the optimum growth of money supply which is vital in controlling the inflation rate in the economy and also preventing monetary disturbances from affecting real output.In order to formulate and estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia,this study used quarterly data from 2000Q3 to 2021Q2 and employed the Ordinary Least Square method and Engle-Granger two-stage procedure for empirical analysis.The empirical result from the models indicates that,in the long run,all variables(real GDP,CPI inflation,real effective exchange rate,real interest rate and lagged real money balance)are significantly affecting the demand for money in Ethiopia.Whereas,the estimated coefficients of the short-run variable show that the real effective exchange rate,CPI inflation,and lagged real money balance are the main determinants of demand for money while the real GDP and real interest rate are insignificant.Another important finding is that absolute value of the coefficient of the error correction term implies that about 54.2%of the disequilibrium in real money demand is counter-balanced by short-run adjustment in each quarter.The study suggests that in conducting monetary policy,policymakers should consider not only the behavior of income and price but also the movement of exchange rates.The study also calls for appropriate formulation and estimation of the all-encompassing demand for money function that is capable of bringing stability to the growth of money coupled with sustainable economic growth.展开更多
This study examined the effects of mobile money-a recent innovation in Uganda’s financial-sector landscape-on aggregate economic activity and other macroeconomic variables.We first estimated the long-run mobile-money...This study examined the effects of mobile money-a recent innovation in Uganda’s financial-sector landscape-on aggregate economic activity and other macroeconomic variables.We first estimated the long-run mobile-money demand function using vector error correction(VEC)techniques,distinguishing between balances and transfers/transactions.We then estimated the short-run effects of mobile money on selected macroeconomic variables using structural vector autoregressive(SVAR)methods.The results showed that mobile money had moderate positive effects on monetary aggregates,consumer price index,private-sector credit,and aggregate economic activity.Mobile money balances responded to changes in monetary policy instruments,signaling possible ameliorating effects for the conduct of monetary policy.Finally,the results showed that transactional motives related to mobile money had stronger macroeconomic effects than savings motives.展开更多
文摘One of the vital components of the macroeconomic model that helps policymaking is the demand for money function.Having reliable predictions on the money demand function helps in determining the optimum growth of money supply which is vital in controlling the inflation rate in the economy and also preventing monetary disturbances from affecting real output.In order to formulate and estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia,this study used quarterly data from 2000Q3 to 2021Q2 and employed the Ordinary Least Square method and Engle-Granger two-stage procedure for empirical analysis.The empirical result from the models indicates that,in the long run,all variables(real GDP,CPI inflation,real effective exchange rate,real interest rate and lagged real money balance)are significantly affecting the demand for money in Ethiopia.Whereas,the estimated coefficients of the short-run variable show that the real effective exchange rate,CPI inflation,and lagged real money balance are the main determinants of demand for money while the real GDP and real interest rate are insignificant.Another important finding is that absolute value of the coefficient of the error correction term implies that about 54.2%of the disequilibrium in real money demand is counter-balanced by short-run adjustment in each quarter.The study suggests that in conducting monetary policy,policymakers should consider not only the behavior of income and price but also the movement of exchange rates.The study also calls for appropriate formulation and estimation of the all-encompassing demand for money function that is capable of bringing stability to the growth of money coupled with sustainable economic growth.
文摘This study examined the effects of mobile money-a recent innovation in Uganda’s financial-sector landscape-on aggregate economic activity and other macroeconomic variables.We first estimated the long-run mobile-money demand function using vector error correction(VEC)techniques,distinguishing between balances and transfers/transactions.We then estimated the short-run effects of mobile money on selected macroeconomic variables using structural vector autoregressive(SVAR)methods.The results showed that mobile money had moderate positive effects on monetary aggregates,consumer price index,private-sector credit,and aggregate economic activity.Mobile money balances responded to changes in monetary policy instruments,signaling possible ameliorating effects for the conduct of monetary policy.Finally,the results showed that transactional motives related to mobile money had stronger macroeconomic effects than savings motives.
