Climate-Vegetation Coverage Interactions in the Hengduan Mountains Area, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and Their Downstream Effects

Little is known about the mechanism of climate-vegetation coverage coupled changes in the Tibetan Plateau(TP)region,which is the most climatically sensitive and ecologically fragile region with the highest terrain in the world.This study,using multisource datasets(including satellite data and meteorological observations and reanalysis data)revealed the mutual feedback mechanisms between changes in climate(temperature and precipitation)and vegetation coverage in recent decades in the Hengduan Mountains Area(HMA)of the southeastern TP and their influences on climate in the downstream region,the Sichuan Basin(SCB).There is mutual facilitation between rising air temperature and increasing vegetation coverage in the HMA,which is most significant during winter,and then during spring,but insignificant during summer and autumn.Rising temperature significantly enhances local vegetation coverage,and vegetation greening in turn heats the atmosphere via enhancing net heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere.The atmospheric heating anomaly over the HMA thickens the atmospheric column and increases upper air pressure.The high pressure anomaly disperses downstream via the westerly flow,expands across the SCB,and eventually increases the SCB temperature.This effect lasts from winter to the following spring,which may cause the maximum increasing trend of the SCB temperature and vegetation coverage in spring.These results are helpful for estimating future trends in climate and eco-environmental variations in the HMA and SCB under warming scenarios,as well as seasonal forecasting based on the connection between the HMA eco-environment and SCB climate.

Spatio-temporal Pattern of Net Primary Productivity in Hengduan Mountains area, China： Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities

Net primary productivity(NPP), a metric used to define and identify changes in plant communities, is greatly affected by climate change, human activities and other factors. Here, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate the NPP of plant communities in Hengduan Mountains area of China, and to explore the relationship between NPP and altitude in this region. We examined the mechanisms underlying vegetation growth responses to climate change and quantitatively assessed the effects of ecological protection measures by partitioning the contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes. The results demonstrated that: 1) the average total and annual NPP values over the years were 209.15 Tg C and 468.06 g C/(m2·yr), respectively. Their trend increasingly fluctuated, with spatial distribution strongly linked to altitude(i.e., lower and higher NPP in high altitude and low altitude areas, respectively) and 2400 m represented the marginal altitude for vegetation differentiation; 2) areas where climate was the main factor affecting NPP accounted for 18.2% of the total research area, whereas human activities were the primary factor influencing NPP in 81.8% of the total research area, which indicated that human activity was the main force driving changes in NPP. Areas where climatic factors(i.e., temperature and precipitation) were the main driving factors occupied 13.6%(temperature) and 6.0%(precipitation) of the total research area, respectively. Therefore, the effect of temperature on NPP changes was stronger than that of precipitation; and 3) the majority of NPP residuals from 2001 to 2014 were positive, with human activities playing an active role in determining regional vegetation growth, possibly due to the return of farmland back to forest and natural forest protection. However, this positive trend is decreasing. This clearly shows the periodical nature of ecological projects and a lack of long-term effectiveness.

Relocation of Earthquakes in the Northeastern Tianshan Mountains Area and Improvement of Local 1-D Crustal Velocity Model

We apply three methods to relocate 599 earthquake events that occurred from August 2004 to August 2005 in the northeastern Tianshan Mountains area ( 85°30' ～ 88°30'E,43°00' ～ 44°40' N ) by using travel times recorded by regional seismic network and 10 portable seismic stations deployed around the Urumqi city. By comparing the reliability of different results,we determined a suitable location method,and an improved 1-D crustal velocity model of the study area. The uncertainty of earthquake location is significantly reduced with combined data of seismic network and portable stations. The relocated events are clearly associated with regional tectonics of the northeastern Tianshan Mountains area, and are also in agreement with the existence of active faults imaged by deep seismic reflection profile. The relocated seismicity discovers some potential traces of buried active faults,which need to be validated further.

Development pattern of the industry form in mountains area:a case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir area

The mountainous areas （mountain, plateau and hilly area ） cover than 85% of total land territory of China.Nature and humanity in very mountainous ares has its own geographic characteristics.In the process of industrialization and urbanization in China, realizing the sustainable development of the mouniainous areas, optimizing man-land system, and adopting and continuously developing corresponding economic modes of the mountainous areas with multi-functions of economy, ecalogy, culture and society to chararacterize production content, mode of production. mode of operation is not only helpful to econonty, society and ecological value and is of great aesthetic value,but also solve the technological problems of the subject of starting undertaking to finally transform the regional resource advantage of the mountainous area into the advantage of capital and technology for economic development and to get rid of the contradiction between underdeveloped economy and abundant resources. This paper takes the Three Gorges Reservoir（TGR） area for example to show that it＇s of great practical and theoretical significance ,regional distribution,variety structure and quality structure.

An analysis of oasis stability in arid areas:a case study in the northern slope areas of the Tianshan Mountains

This paper discusses oasis stability at regional scale with a case study in the northern slope areas of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM). The results showed certain significant aspects. (1) As long as water resources in the oasis keep stable and their utilization efficiency can be maintained or gradually increased, the primary productivity could be continuously increased and the natural primary productivity keeped relatively stable. In this case, it is considered that the oasis is stable and its sustainable development can be achieved at regional scale. (2) Considering the availability of water resources in the oases, the oases on the alluvial-diluvial fans are highly stable. In the alluvial plain downstream of the groundwater overflowing zones the oases are moderately stable and in the lacustrine deltas or dry lacustrine deltas the oases are lowly stable. (3) Enlargement of oases and the increase of water resources and vegetation coverage in the oasis will certainly enhance the 'cold-island effect' of the oasis and increase the stability of oases.

Latest Zircon U-Pb Age of the Baiyingaolao Formation Volcanic Rocks in the Keyihe Area of North-Central Da Hinggan Mountains

Objective Mesozoic volcanic rocks are mainly distributed in the Da Hinggan Mountains.The Baiyingaolao Formation is the main stratum in this area and has been considered to be formed in the Late Jurassic.Many scholars have researched these Mesozoic volcanic rocks in this area,which have been much debatable（Zhang Xiangxin et al.,2017）.A series of studies focusing on the Baiyingaolao Formation volcanic rocks in the middle-south section of

Seismic response of a mid-story isolated structure considering SSI in mountainous areas under long-period earthquakes

At present,there is not much research on mid-story isolated structures in mountainous areas.In this study,a model of a mid-story isolated structure considering soil-structure interaction(SSI)in mountainous areas is established along with a model that does not consider SSI.Eight long-period earthquake waves and two ordinary earthquake waves are selected as inputs for the dynamic time history analysis of the structure.The results show that the seismic response of a mid-story isolated structure considering SSI in mountainous areas can be amplified when compared with a structure that does not consider SSI.The structure response under long-period earthquakes is larger than that of ordinary earthquakes.The structure response under far-field harmonic-like earthquakes is larger than that of near-fault pulse-type earthquakes.The structure response under near-fault pulse-type earthquakes is larger than that of far-field non-harmonic earthquakes.When subjected to long-period earthquakes,the displacement of the isolated bearings exceeded the limit value,which led to instability and overturning of the structure.The structure with dampers in the isolated story could adequately control the nonlinear response of the structure,effectively reduce the displacement of the isolated bearings,and provide a convenient,efficient and economic method not only for new construction but also to retrofit existing structures.

Income Inequality in Mountain Areas: The Case of Agroforestry Farming Systems in Uluguru Mountains, Tanzania

Land degradation due to use of unsustainable agricultural practices has affected many communities in rural mountain areas rendering them to be more vulnerable to income poverty and inequality. In this case, agroforestry systems promise to offer great solutions as they can be developed in unfavourable conditions where other production systems would either rapidly degrade the land or otherwise would not be possible. However, little is known whether agroforestry can address issues of income inequality in mountain areas. Hence, we conducted a study to investigate the nature and determinants of income inequality in Uluguru Mountains, Tanzania. Specifically, we used the cross-sectional research design and we calculated the income percentile shares, Gini coefficients and the coefficient of variation (CV), to pinpoint the nature of income inequality in the study area. The determinants of income inequality were analysed using the step by step multiple linear model. The results of analysis suggested prevalence of income inequality. Crop production was the main source of income in the agroforestry systems of the study area. Earnings from crops and timber were decreasing income-inequality amongst smallholder farmers. Our disaggregated analysis showed that off-farm income was also decreasing income-inequality for farmers with farmlands located close to homestead, for female-headed households, for farmers who did not access extension services, and those who were members of community-based financial institutions. Estimated incomes increased with household assets, size of farmland, and age of household head. However, the same decreased with household size. We found gender disparity to be one of the key issues that need attention in formulating future policies to reduce inequality. We recommend promotion of livelihood diversification as well as the designing and implementation of tailor-made training and farm financing mechanism to help the less resource-endowed farmers in mountain areas to raise their economic portfolios and social status and combat income poverty and inequality.

Analysis on Change Tendency of the Precipitation Resource during Growth Period of the Conventional Crops in Plain Area before Taihang Mountains

[Objective] The aim was to study change tendency of the precipitation resource during growth period of the conventional crops in plain area before Taihang Mountains. [ Method] Based on daily precipitation data at Shijiazhuang meteorological station in recent 51 years, average rainfall dudng growth periods of the 9 kinds of conventional crops was obtained. Precipitation tendency dudng growth periods of the 9 kinds of conventional crops in plain area before Taihang Mountains was analyzed by Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. [ Result] Seen from rainfall during growth pedods of the different crops, rainfall was the least during the growth period of winter wheat, followed by summer corn. Rainfall during growth peri- ods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree, potato, rice and legumes was more. Under different guaranteed rates, precipitation change also had difference. Rainfall change during growth periods of the wheat and corn was bigger, and rainfall change during growth period of the rice was smaller. Change degree of the precipitation during growth periods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree and legumes was equivalent, while precipitation change during growth period of the potato was the biggest. Seen from change tendency of the precipitation during growth periods of the different crops, precipitation in the growth period of winter wheat was increasing at a speed of 0.62 mm/a. However, precipitation in growth periods of the other crops had a decreasing tendency. Precipitation in the growth periods of summer corn and legumes decreased at the same speed which was 2.11 mm/a, while precipitation in growth periods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree, potato and rice decreased insignificantly. [ Con dusion] The study laid foundation for determination of the agricultural irrigation water and provided theoretical reference for regional agricultural water-saving.

Spatial pattern recognition for near-surface high temperature increases in mountain areas using MODIS and SRTM DEM

Abrupt near-surface temperature changes in mountainous areas are a special component of the mountain climate system.Fast and accurate measurements of the locations,intensity,and width of the near-surface changes are necessary but highly difficult due to the complicated environmental conditions and instrumental issues.This paper develops a spatial pattern recognition method to measure the near-surface high temperature increase(NSHTI),one of the lesser-attended changes.First,raster window measurement was proposed to calculate the temperature lapse rate using MODIS land surface temperature and SRTM DEM data.It fully considers the terrain heights of two neighboring cells on opposite or adjacent slopes with a moving window of 3×3 cell size.Second,a threshold selection was performed to identify the NSHTI cells using a threshold of-0.65℃/100 m.Then,the NSHTI strips were parameterized through raster vectorization and spatial analysis.Taking Yunnan,a mountainous province in southwestern China,as the study area,the results indicate that the NSHTI cells concentrate in a strip-like pattern along the mountains and valleys,and the strips are almost parallel to the altitude contours with a slight northward uplift.Also,they are located mostly at a 3/5 height of high mountains or within 400 m from the valley floors,where the controlling topographic index is the altitude of the terrain trend surface but not the absolute elevation and the topographic uplift height and cutting depth.Additionally,the NSHTI intensity varies with the geographic locations and the proportions increase with an exponential trend,and the horizontal width has a mean of about 1000 m and a maximum of over 5000 m.The result demonstrates that the proposed method can effectively recognize NSHTI boundaries over mountains,providing support for the modeling of weather and climate systems and the development of mountain resources.

Using satellite-derived land surface temperatures to clarify the spatiotemporal warming trends of the Alborz Mountains in northern Iran

The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran,and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions.The land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable that affects the ecosystem of this area.This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes and trends of the nighttime LST in the western region of the Central Alborz Mountains at elevations of 1500-4000 m above sea level.MODIS data were extracted for the period of 2000-2021,and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was applied to evaluating the changes in the LST.The results indicated a significant increasing trend for the monthly average LST in May-August along the southern aspect.Both the northern and southern aspects showed decreasing trends for the monthly average LST in October,November,and March and an increasing trend in other months.At all elevations,the average decadal change in the monthly average LST was more severe along the southern aspect(0.60°C)than along the northern aspect(0.37°C).The LST difference between the northern and southern aspects decreased in the cold months but increased in the hot months.At the same elevation,the difference in the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects was greater in the hot months than in the cold months.With increasing elevation,the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects disappeared.Climate change was concluded to greatly decrease the difference in LST at different elevations for April-July.

Residual subsidence time series model in mountain area caused by underground mining based on GNSS online monitoring

The residual subsidence caused by underground mining in mountain area has a long subsidence duration time and great potential harm,which seriously threatens the safety of people's production and life in the mining area.Therefore,it is necessary to use appropriate monitoring methods and mathematical models to effectively monitor and predict the residual subsidence caused by underground mining.Compared with traditional level survey and InSAR(Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)technology,GNSS(Global Navigation Satellite System)online monitoring technology has the advantages of long-term monitoring,high precision and more flexible monitoring methods.The empirical equation method of residual subsidence in mining subsidence is effectively combined with the rock creep equation,which can not only describe the residual subsidence process from the mechanism,but also predict the residual subsidence.Therefore,based on GNSS online monitoring technology,combined with the mining subsidence model of mountain area and adding the correlation coefficient of the compaction degree of caving broken rock and the Kelvin model of rock mechanics,this paper constructs the residual subsidence time series model of arbitrary point on the ground in mountain area.Through the example,the predicted results of the model in the inversion parameter phase and the dynamic prediction phase are compared with the measured data sequence.The results show that the model can carry out effective numerical calculation according to the GNSS monitoring data of any point on the ground,and the model prediction effect is good,which provides a new method for the prediction of residual subsidence in mountain mining.

Using negative exponential function to characterize built-up land density along slope gradient for 19 urban areas in China

In China,numerous cities are expanding into sloping land,yet the quantitative distribution patterns of urban built-up land density along the slope gradient remain unclear,limiting the understanding of sloping land urbanization.In this paper,a simple negative exponential function was presented to verify its applicability in 19 typical sloping urban areas in China.The function fits well for all case urban areas(R^(2)≥0.951,p<0.001).The parameters of this function clearly describe two fundamental attributes:initial value a and decline rate b.Between 2000 and 2020,a tends to increase,while b tends to decrease in all urban areas,confirming the hypothesis of mutual promotion between flatland densification and sloping land expansion.Multiple regression analysis indicates that the built-up land density and the ruggedness of background land can explain 70.7%of a,while the average slope ratio of built-up land to background land,the built-up land density and the built-up land area can explain 82.1%of b.This work provides a quantitative investigative tool for distribution of urban built-up land density along slope gradient,aiding in the study of the globally increasing phenomenon of sloping land urbanization from a new perspective.

Understanding and simulating of three-dimensional subsurface hydrological partitioning in an alpine mountainous area, China

Critical zone(CZ)plays a vital role in sustaining biodiversity and humanity.However,flux quantification within CZ,particularly in terms of subsurface hydrological partitioning,remains a significant challenge.This study focused on quantifying subsurface hydrological partitioning,specifically in an alpine mountainous area,and highlighted the important role of lateral flow during this process.Precipitation was usually classified as two parts into the soil:increased soil water content(SWC)and lateral flow out of the soil pit.It was found that 65%–88%precipitation contributed to lateral flow.The second common partitioning class showed an increase in SWC caused by both precipitation and lateral flow into the soil pit.In this case,lateral flow contributed to the SWC increase ranging from 43%to 74%,which was notably larger than the SWC increase caused by precipitation.On alpine meadows,lateral flow from the soil pit occurred when the shallow soil was wetter than the field capacity.This result highlighted the need for three-dimensional simulation between soil layers in Earth system models(ESMs).During evapotranspiration process,significant differences were observed in the classification of subsurface hydrological partitioning among different vegetation types.Due to tangled and aggregated fine roots in the surface soil on alpine meadows,the majority of subsurface responses involved lateral flow,which provided 98%–100%of evapotranspiration(ET).On grassland,there was a high probability(0.87),which ET was entirely provided by lateral flow.The main reason for underestimating transpiration through soil water dynamics in previous research was the neglect of lateral root water uptake.Furthermore,there was a probability of 0.12,which ET was entirely provided by SWC decrease on grassland.In this case,there was a high probability(0.98)that soil water responses only occurred at layer 2(10–20 cm),because grass roots mainly distributed in this soil layer,and grasses often used their deep roots for water uptake during ET.To improve the estimation of soil water dynamics and ET,we established a random forest(RF)model to simulate lateral flow and then corrected the community land model(CLM).RF model demonstrated good performance and led to significant improvements in CLM simulation.These findings enhance our understanding of subsurface hydrological partitioning and emphasize the importance of considering lateral flow in ESMs and hydrological research.

Impact of typical environments in China’s western mountainous areas on the durability of railway concrete:a review

Purpose–This study aims to analyze the impact mechanism of typical environments in China’s western mountainous areas on the durability of railway concrete and propose measures to improve durability.Design/methodology/approach–With the continuous promotion of infrastructure construction,the focus of China’s railway construction has gradually shifted to the western region.The four typical environments of large temperature differences,strong winds and dryness,high cold and low air pressure unique to the western mountainous areas of China have adverse effects on the durability of typical railway structure concrete(bridges,ballastless tracks and tunnels).This study identified the characteristics of four typical environments in the western mountainous areas of China through on-site research.The impact mechanism of the four typical environments on the durability of concrete in different structural parts of railways has been explored through theoretical analysis and experimental research;Finally,a strategy for improving the durability of railway concrete suitable for the western mountainous areas of China was proposed.Findings–The daily temperature difference in the western mountainous areas of China is more than twice that of the plain region,which will lead to significant temperature deformation and stress in the multi-layered structure of railway ballastless tracks.It will result in cracking.The wind speed in the western plateau region is about 2.5 to 3 times that of the plain region,and the average annual rainfall is only 1/5 of that in the plain region.The drying effect on the surface of casting concrete will significantly accelerate its cracking process,leading to serious durability problems.The environmental temperature in the western mountainous areas of China is generally low,and there are more freeze-thaw cycles,which will increase the risk of freeze-thaw damage to railway concrete.The environmental air pressure in the western plateau region is only 60%of that in the plain region.The moisture inside the concrete is more likely to diffuse into the surrounding environment under the pressure difference,resulting in greater water loss and shrinkage deformation of the concrete in the plateau region.The above four issues will collectively lead to the rapid deterioration of concrete durability in the western plateau region.The corresponding durability improvement suggestions from theoretical research,new technology development and standard system was proposed in this paper.Originality/value–The research can provide the mechanism of durability degradation of railway concrete in the western mountainous areas of China and corresponding improvement strategies.

Dry Breeding and Dry Planting Techniques for Indica Hybrid Rice in Karst Mountain Areas of Gejiu City

Based on the arable land situation in Gejiu City,upland dry planting of indica hybrid rice is being expanded in Karst mountain areas with a rainfall of over 1400 mm and an altitude of 1100-1600 m to develop grain production.This paper gives a specific description of hybrid rice upland dry seedling technology,upland transplanting technology,fertilization technology,field management,weed prevention and control technology,and disease and pest control.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecological Quality in Typical Karst Ecologically Fragile Areas Based on Remote Sensing Ecological Indexes

Fast and effective remote sensing monitoring is an important means for analyzing the spatio-temporal changes in ecological quality in fragile karst regions.This study focuses on Guanling Autonomous County,a national-level demonstration county for comprehensive desertification control.Based on Landsat TM/OLI remote sensing image data from 2005,2010,2015,and 2020,remote sensing ecological indices were used to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in ecological quality in Guanling Autonomous County from 2005 to 2020.The results show that:①the variance contribution rates of the first principal component for the four periods were 66.31%,71.59%,63.18%,and 75.24%,indicating that PC1 integrated most of the characteristics of the four indices,making the RSEI suitable for evaluating ecological quality in karst mountain areas;②the remote sensing ecological index grades have been increasing year by year,with an overall trend of improving ecological quality.The area of higher-grade ecological quality has increased spatially,while fragmented patches have gradually decreased,becoming more concentrated in the low-altitude areas in the northwest and east,and there is a trend of expansion towards higher-altitude areas;③the ecological environment quality in most areas has improved,with the improvement in RSEI spatio-temporal variation becoming more noticeable with increasing slope.Areas of higher-grade quality appeared in 2010,and the range of higher-grade quality expanded with increasing slope.

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Optimization of Landscape Ecological Risk in Karst Mountainous Areas

[Objective]The ecological vulnerability and landscape ecological risk of karst mountainous areas have increased as a result of enhanced disturbance of natural resources by human activities.This paper aimed to explore the characteristics of ecological risk evolution under different landscape patterns in the region,with a view to providing reference for land classification protection,sustainable use of resources and regional ecological risk optimization in karst mountainous areas.[Method]Taking Huangping County,a typical karst mountainous area,as an example,eight evaluation factors of natural and landscape patterns were selected to construct a landscape ecological risk evaluation model,to quantitatively explore the spatio-temporal evolution of landscape ecological risk and the trend of risk level transfer in the study area from^(2)010-2018,and to reveal the complex relationship between ecological risk and topography in karst mountainous areas.[Result]①From 2010 to 2018,land use types changed to different degrees,with the most amount of woodland transferred out(1627.37 hm^(2))and the most amount of construction land transferred in(1303.93 hm^(2));a total of 3552.31 hm^(2) of land was transferred,with a change ratio of 2.13%,and there was a significant conversion between construction land,arable land,and woodland.②From 2010 to 2018,the landscape ecological risk in the study area changed significantly,and the landscape ecological risk index decreased from 0.3441 to 0.1733,showing an upward and then downward trend;the landscape ecological risk of the whole region was dominated by low-risk and lower-risk zones,and the ecological risk level generally shifted from a high level to a low level,and the ecological environment was improved.③There was a negative correlation between ecological risk and topographic position,and high-risk zones were mainly distributed among low topographic zones;with the change of time,the advantage of risk level for the selection of topography was gradually weakened,and the influence of anthropogenic factors on the ecological risk of the landscape was becoming more and more prominent.[Conclusion]This paper can provide theoretical basis for land use optimization and ecological protection in karst mountainous areas.

Loading Stress Analysis of Cement Concrete Pavement in Mountainous Areas

The suitable cement concrete pavement for mountainous areas is a form of low-cost cement concrete pavement that uses unconventional graded stones in different proportions in ordinary concrete,allowing the concrete to fully contact the stones and form a stable and well-bonded slab with large particle stones.As large particle stones replace a certain volume of cement concrete,they have good economic performance and are a low-cost form of cement concrete pavement.This study researches the use of ANSYS tools to analyze the influence of geometric dimensions and material properties of rigid pavement structural layers on the mechanical properties of pavement structures.

Remote Sensing Monitoring of the Subalpine Coniferous Forests and Quantitative Analysis of the Characteristics of Succession in East Mountain Area of Tibetan Plateau——A Case Study With Zamtang County

The study area lies in the Dadu River drainage area in upstream Yangtze River.The spatial distribution of subalpine coniferous forests in 1989 and 2009 was extracted by means of a combined method of object orientation and visual interpretation,and then the overlaying analysis of these data was conducted.The type and spatial location of succession were discovered and served as the sample of dependant variable.Meanwhile,supported by GIS technology and based on DEM and thematic data,the eight variables including altitude,slope,sin and cosin of aspect,curvity of land surface,and distance to residential area,cultivated land and road were extracted served as the sample of spatial succession of subalpine coniferous forests to fit Logistic Regression,and then the contribution of each independent variable as well as the spatial property of the occurrence probability of succession was calculated.The results suggested that,during the succession of subalpine coniferous forests to meadow,the closer to the residential area and cultivated land,the greater the contribution to succession is.In particular,when the distance to the residential area decreases by one unit,the probability for its conversion to meadow will be increased by 1.15 times.During the succession of subalpine coniferous forests to deciduous-broadleaved shrubs,the sin of aspect and distance to residential area contribute more,and the probability of succession increases with increasing degree of northwardness,i.e.when the degree of northwardness increases by one unit,the probability will be increased by 1.2 times.The quantitative analysis of spatial succession property of subalpine coniferous forests will supply scientific basis to the protection and restoration of subalpine coniferous forests.