Multi-Time Scale Operation and Simulation Strategy of the Park Based on Model Predictive Control

Due to the impact of source-load prediction power errors and uncertainties,the actual operation of the park will have a wide range of fluctuations compared with the expected state,resulting in its inability to achieve the expected economy.This paper constructs an operating simulation model of the park power grid operation considering demand response and proposes a multi-time scale operating simulation method that combines day-ahead optimization and model predictive control(MPC).In the day-ahead stage,an operating simulation plan that comprehensively considers the user’s side comfort and operating costs is proposed with a long-term time scale of 15 min.In order to cope with power fluctuations of photovoltaic,wind turbine and conventional load,MPC is used to track and roll correct the day-ahead operating simulation plan in the intra-day stage to meet the actual operating operation status of the park.Finally,the validity and economy of the operating simulation strategy are verified through the analysis of arithmetic examples.

Multi-Time Scale Optimal Scheduling of a Photovoltaic Energy Storage Building System Based on Model Predictive Control

Building emission reduction is an important way to achieve China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Aiming at the problem of low carbon economic operation of a photovoltaic energy storage building system,a multi-time scale optimal scheduling strategy based on model predictive control(MPC)is proposed under the consideration of load optimization.First,load optimization is achieved by controlling the charging time of electric vehicles as well as adjusting the air conditioning operation temperature,and the photovoltaic energy storage building system model is constructed to propose a day-ahead scheduling strategy with the lowest daily operation cost.Second,considering inter-day to intra-day source-load prediction error,an intraday rolling optimal scheduling strategy based on MPC is proposed that dynamically corrects the day-ahead dispatch results to stabilize system power fluctuations and promote photovoltaic consumption.Finally,taking an office building on a summer work day as an example,the effectiveness of the proposed scheduling strategy is verified.The results of the example show that the strategy reduces the total operating cost of the photovoltaic energy storage building system by 17.11%,improves the carbon emission reduction by 7.99%,and the photovoltaic consumption rate reaches 98.57%,improving the system’s low-carbon and economic performance.

3D Model Construction and Ecological Environment Investigation on a Regional Scale Using UAV Remote Sensing

The acquisition of digital regional-scale information and ecological environmental data has high requirements for structural texture,spatial res-olution,and multiple parameter categories,which is challenging to achieve using satellite remote sensing.Considering the convenient,facilitative,and flexible characteristics of UAV(unmanned air vehicle)remote sensing tech-nology,this study selects a campus as a typical research area and uses the Pegasus D2000 equipped with a D-MSPC2000 multi-spectral camera and a CAM3000 aerial camera to acquire oblique images and multi-spectral data.Using professional software,including Context Capture,ENVI,and ArcGIS,a 3D(three-dimensional)campus model,a digital orthophoto map,and multi-spectral remote sensing map drawing are realized,and the geometric accuracy of typical feature selection is evaluated.Based on a quantitative remote sensing model,the campus ecological environment assessment is performed from the perspectives of vegetation and water body.The results presented in this study could be of great significance to the scientific management and sustainable development of regional natural resources.

Research on the intelligent internet nursing model based on the child respiratory and asthma control test scale for asthma management of preschool children

BACKGROUND Childhood asthma is a common respiratory ailment that significantly affects preschool children.Effective asthma management in this population is particularly challenging due to limited communication skills in children and the necessity for consistent involvement of a caregiver.With the rise of digital healthcare and the need for innovative interventions,Internet-based models can potentially offer relatively more efficient and patient-tailored care,especially in children.AIM To explore the impact of an intelligent Internet care model based on the child respiratory and asthma control test(TRACK)on asthma management in preschool children.METHODS The study group comprised preschoolers,aged 5 years or younger,that visited the hospital's pediatric outpatient and emergency departments between January 2021 and January 2022.Total of 200 children were evenly and randomly divided into the observation and control groups.The control group received standard treatment in accordance with the 2016 Guidelines for Pediatric Bronchial Asthma and the Global Initiative on Asthma.In addition to above treatment,the observation group was introduced to an intelligent internet nursing model,emphasizing the TRACK scale.Key measures monitored over a six-month period included the frequency of asthma attack,emergency visits,pulmonary function parameters(FEV1,FEV1/FVC,and PEF),monthly TRACK scores,and the SF-12 quality of life assessment.Post-intervention asthma control rates were assessed at six-month follow-up.RESULTS The observation group had fewer asthma attacks and emergency room visits than the control group(P<0.05).After six months of treatment,the children in both groups had higher FEV1,FEV1/FVC,and PEF(P<0.05).Statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups(P<0.05).For six months,children in the observation group had a higher monthly TRACK score than those in the control group(P<0.05).The PCS and MCSSF-12 quality of life scores were relatively higher than those before the nursing period(P<0.05).Furthermore,the groups showed statistically significant differences(P<0.05).The asthma control rate was higher in the observation group than in the control group(P<0.05).CONCLUSION TRACK based Intelligent Internet nursing model may reduce asthma attacks and emergency visits in asthmatic children,improve lung function,quality of life,and the TRACK score and asthma control rate.The effect of nursing was significant,allowing for development of an asthma management model.

Nonlinear wave dispersion in monoatomic chains with lumped and distributed masses:discrete and continuum models

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the influence of inertia of nonlinear springs on the dispersion behavior of discrete monoatomic chains with lumped and distributed masses.The developed model can represent the wave propagation problem in a non-homogeneous material consisting of heavy inclusions embedded in a matrix.The inclusions are idealized by lumped masses,and the matrix between adjacent inclusions is modeled by a nonlinear spring with distributed masses.Additionally,the model is capable of depicting the wave propagation in bi-material bars,wherein the first material is represented by a rigid particle and the second one is represented by a nonlinear spring with distributed masses.The discrete model of the nonlinear monoatomic chain with lumped and distributed masses is first considered,and a closed-form expression of the dispersion relation is obtained by the second-order Lindstedt-Poincare method(LPM).Next,a continuum model for the nonlinear monoatomic chain is derived directly from its discrete lattice model by a suitable continualization technique.The subsequent use of the second-order method of multiple scales(MMS)facilitates the derivation of the corresponding nonlinear dispersion relation in a closed form.The novelties of the present study consist of(i)considering the inertia of nonlinear springs on the dispersion behavior of the discrete mass-spring chains;(ii)developing the second-order LPM for the wave propagation in the discrete chains;and(iii)deriving a continuum model for the nonlinear monoatomic chains with lumped and distributed masses.Finally,a parametric study is conducted to examine the effects of the design parameters and the distributed spring mass on the nonlinear dispersion relations and phase velocities obtained from both the discrete and continuum models.These parameters include the ratio of the spring mass to the lumped mass,the nonlinear stiffness coefficient of the spring,and the wave amplitude.

Microbial Growth and Decay: A Commented Review of the Model

The paper reviews previous publications and reports some comments about a semi empirical model of the growth and decay process of a planktonic microbial culture. After summarizing and reshaping some fundamental mathematical expressions, the paper highlights the reasons for the choice of a suitable time origin that makes the parameters of the model self-consistent. Besides the potential applications to predictive microbiology studies and to effects of bactericidal drugs, the model allows a suitable proxy of the fitness of the microbial culture, which can be of interest for the studies on the evolution across some thousand generations of a Long Term Evolution Experiment.

The Impact of Model Based Offset Scaling Technique on the Amplitude Variation with Offset Responses from 3D Seismic Data Acquired from the Tano Basin, Offshore Ghana

Amplitudes have been found to be a function of incident angle and offset. Hence data required to test for amplitude variation with angle or offset needs to have its amplitudes for all offsets preserved and not stacked. Amplitude Variation with Offset (AVO)/Amplitude Variation with Angle (AVA) is necessary to account for information in the offset/angle parameter (mode converted S-wave and P-wave velocities). Since amplitudes are a function of the converted S- and P-waves, it is important to investigate the dependence of amplitudes on the elastic (P- and S-waves) parameters from the seismic data. By modelling these effects for different reservoir fluids via fluid substitution, various AVO geobody classes present along the well and in the entire seismic cube can be observed. AVO analysis was performed on one test well (Well_1) and 3D pre-stack angle gathers from the Tano Basin. The analysis involves creating a synthetic model to infer the effect of offset scaling techniques on amplitude responses in the Tano basin as compared to the effect of unscaled seismic data. The spectral balance process was performed to match the amplitude spectra of all angle stacks to that of the mid (26°) stack on the test lines. The process had an effect primarily on the far (34° - 40°) stacks. The frequency content of these stacks slightly increased to match that of the near and mid stacks. In offset scaling process, the root mean square (RMS) amplitude comparison between the synthetic and seismic suggests that the amplitude of the far traces should be reduced relative to the nears by up to 16%. However, the exact scaler values depend on the time window considered. This suggests that the amplitude scaling with offset delivered from seismic processing is only approximately correct and needs to be checked with well synthetics and adjusted accordingly prior to use for AVO studies. The AVO attribute volumes generated were better at resolving anomalies on spectrally balanced and offset scaled data than data delivered from conventional processing. A typical class II AVO anomaly is seen along the test well from the cross-plot analysis and AVO attribute cube which indicates an oil filled reservoir.

Small-time scale network traffic prediction based on a local support vector machine regression model

In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the reconstructed phase space, the local support vector machine prediction method is used to predict the traffic measurement data, and the BIC-based neighbouring point selection method is used to choose the number of the nearest neighbouring points for the local support vector machine regression model. The experimental results show that the local support vector machine prediction method whose neighbouring points are optimized can effectively predict the small-time scale traffic measurement data and can reproduce the statistical features of real traffic measurements.

Experimental, Numerical and Simplified Theoretical Model Study for Internal Solitary Wave Load on FPSO with Emphasis on Scale Effect

Scale effect of ISWs loads on Floating Production Storage and Offloading(FPSO) is studied in this paper. The application conditions of KdV, eKdV and MCC ISWs theories are used in the numerical method. The depthaveraged velocities induced by ISWs are used for the velocity-inlet boundary. Three scale ratio numerical models λ=1, 20 and 300 were selected, which the scale ratio is the size ratio of numerical models to the experimental model.The comparisons between the numerical and former experimental results are performed to verify the feasibility of numerical method. The comparisons between the numerical and simplified theoretical results are performed to discuss the applicability of the simplified theoretical model summarized from the load experiments. Firstly, the numerical results of λ=1 numerical model showed a good agreement with former experimental and simplified theoretical results. It is feasible to simulate the ISWs loads on FPSO by the numerical method. Secondly, the comparisons between the results of three scale ratio numerical models and experimental results indicated that the scale ratios have more significant influence on the experimental horizontal forces than the vertical forces. The scale effect of horizontal forces mainly results from the different viscosity effects associated with the model’s dimension.Finally, through the comparisons between the numerical and simplified theoretical results for three scale ratio models, the simplified theoretical model of the pressure difference and friction forces exerted by ISWs on FPSO is applied for large-scale or full-scale FPSO.

Experimental investigation and theoretical modeling on scale behaviors of high salinity wastewater in zero liquid discharge process of coal chemical industry

Zero liquid discharge(ZLD)treatment and reuse equipment of high salinity wastewater in coal-chemical industry often occur in various types of blockage problems because of high salt content,affecting the long-term stability of the device.In this study,the effects of solution temperature,steel,reaction time and wall roughness on fouling were investigated.The changes in the contents of fouling and fouling substances were qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed by XRD and EDS respectively,and the formation of scale was observed by SEM.The results show that with temperature increasing,Q235 steel is the most difficult to scale.Scaling rate of all salt scales reaches a maximum after 12 h,and the fouling rate decreases significantly from 12 to 48 h.It gradually stabilizes at 48 to 96 h.With the roughness increasing,the thickness of fouling layer increases,and a linear relationship is presented for 1 to 10 h.By comparing actual and simulated wastewater scaling rates,the relationship between actual and simulated wastewater scaling rates is y=ax-0.494.The composition of the scale was analyzed,calcium carbonate is the main product and increases with fouling time.Based on the above-mentioned results combining literatures,the hybrid prediction model with calcium carbonate as the main product is put forward.It is discussed microscopically that calcium carbonate is converted from aragonite and vaterite in a thermodynamically metastable state to calcite in a thermodynamically stable state.

Feasibility and simulation model of a pilot scale membrane bioreactor for wastewater treatment and reuse from Chinese traditional medicine

The lack and pollution of water resource make wastewater reuse necessary. The pilot scale long-term tests for submerged membrane bioreactor were conducted to treat the effluents of anaerobic or aerobic treatment process for the high-strength Chinese traditional medicine wastewater. This article was focused on the feasibility of the wastewater treatment and reuse at shorter hydraulic retention time （HRT） of 5.0, 3.2 and 2.13 h. MLSS growth, membrane flux, vacuum values and chemical cleaning periods were also investigated. The experimental results of treating two-phase anaerobic treatment effluent demonstrated that the CODfilt was less than 100 mg/L when the influent COD was between 500-10000 mg/L at HRT of 5.0 h, which could satisfy the normal discharged standard in China. The experimental results to treat cross flow aerobic reactor effluent demonstrated that the average value of CODfilt was 17.28 mg/L when the average value of influent COD was 192.84 mg/L at HRT of 2.13 h during 106 d, which could completely meet the normal standard for water reuse. The maximum MLSS and MLVSS reached 24000 and 14500 mg/L at HRT of 3.2 h respectively. Membrane flux had maximal resume degrees of 94.7% at vacuum value of 0.02 MPa after cleaning. Chemical cleaning periods of membrane module were 150 d. A simulation model of operational parameters was also established based on the theory of back propagation neural network and linear regression of traditional mathematical model. The simulation model showed that the optimum operational parameters were suggested as follows： HRT was 5.0 h, SRT was 100 d, the range of COD loading rate was between 10.664-20.451 kg/（m3.d）, the range of MLSS was between 7543-13694 mg/L.

Joint modelling of location and scale parameters of the skew-normal distribution

Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Prediction of Vibration Characteristics in Beam Structure Using Sub-Scale Modeling with Experimental Validation

Geometric or sub-scale modeling techniques are used for the evaluation of large and complex dynamic structures to ensure accurate reproduction of load path and thus leading to true dynamic characteristics of such structures. The sub-scale modeling technique is very effective in the prediction of vibration characteristics of original large structure when the experimental testing is not feasible due to the absence of a large testing facility. Previous researches were more focused on free and harmonic vibration case with little or no consideration for readily encountered random vibration. A sub-scale modeling technique is proposed for estimating the vibration characteristics of any large scale structure such as Launch vehicles, Mega structures, etc., under various vibration load cases by utilizing precise scaled-down model of that dynamic structure. In order to establish an analytical correlation between the original structure and its scaled models, different scale models of isotropic cantilever beam are selected and analyzed under various vibration conditions（ i.e. free, harmonic and random） using finite element package ANSYS. The developed correlations are also validated through experimental testing The prediction made from the vibratory response of the scaled-down beam through the established sets of correlation are found similar to the response measured from the testing of original beam structure. The established correlations are equally applicable in the prediction of dynamic characteristics of any complex structure through its scaled-down models. This paper presents modified sub-scale modeling technique that enables accurate prediction of vibration characteristics of large and complex structure under not only sinusoidal but also for random vibrations.

A BAROTROPIC QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC MODEL WITH LARGE-SCALE TOPOGRAPHY, FRICTION AND HEATING

Based on the barotropic equations including large-scale topography, friction and heat factor, a barotropic quasi-geostrophic model with large-scale topography, friction and heating is obtained by means of scale analysis and small parameter method. It is shown that this equation is a basic one, which is used to study the influence of the Tibetan Plateau on the large-scale flow in the atmosphere. If the friction and heating effect of large-scale topography are neglected, this model will degenerate to the general barotropic quasi-geostrophic one.

A skew–normal mixture of joint location, scale and skewness models

Normal mixture regression models are one of the most important statistical data analysis tools in a heterogeneous population. When the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes, in the last two decades, the skew normal distribution has been shown beneficial in dealing with asymmetric data in various theoretic and applied problems. In this paper, we propose and study a novel class of models： a skew-normal mixture of joint location, scale and skewness models to analyze the heteroscedastic skew-normal data coming from a heterogeneous population. The issues of maximum likelihood estimation are addressed. In particular, an Expectation-Maximization （EM） algorithm for estimating the model parameters is developed. Properties of the estimators of the regression coefficients are evaluated through Monte Carlo experiments. Results from the analysis of a real data set from the Body Mass Index （BMI） data are presented.

Development and evaluation of the health belief model scale for exercise

Objectives:This study was aimed to develop a health belief model scale for exercise among Chinese residents to describe the relationships between health beliefs and exercise for promoting residents to adopt or maintain exercise programs.Methods:Participants were from two projects,Project 1 with 3833 participants and Project 2 with 7319 participants.A pool of 21 items was developed based on a small-scale qualitative study about health beliefs of exercise and literature.Internal consistency and construct validity of the scale were evaluated with Cronbach'sαcoefficient,exploratory factor analysis(EFA),confirmatory factor analysis(CFA)and second-order confirmatory factor analysis.Results:A final version of 18 items loaded on six factors which could explain 60.30-%of variance was observed after EFA.The internal consistency of the final version with 18 items performed in Project 1 was acceptable(0.609).The reliability of the six subscales was good with Cronbach'sαcoefficient of 0.628,0.713,0.628,0.801,0.676 and 0.838 for perceived benefits,perceived objective barriers,perceived subjective barriers,self-efficacy,perceived severity and cues to action,respectively.CFA and second-order CFA indicated a good fit to data.Conclusions:The Health Belief Model Scale for Exercise(HBMS-E)is a valid and reliable instrument to assess health beliefs of exercise among residents in China.Understanding the health beliefs of exercise will help health professionals to develop effective interventions for health and evaluate the effectiveness.

Mechanical and numerical models for sea ice dynamics on small-meso scale

On small-meso scale, the sea ice dynamic characteristics are quite different from that on large scale. To model the sea ice dynamics on small-meso scale, a new elastic-viscous-plastic （EVP） constitutive model and a hybrid Lagrangian- Eulerian （HLE） numerical method are developed based on continuum theory. While a modified discrete element model （DEM） is introduced to model the ice cover at discrete state. With the EVP constitutive model, the numerical simulation for ice ridging in an idealized rectangular basin is carried out and the results are comparable with the analytical solution of jam theory. Adopting the HLE numerical model, the sea ice dynamic process is simulated in a vortex wind field. The furthering application of DEM is discussed in details for modeling the discrete distribution of sea ice. With this study, the mechanical and numerical models for sea ice dynamics can be improved with high precision and computational efficiency.

Gap models across micro-to mega-scales of time and space:examples of Tansley’s ecosystem concept

Background:Gap models are individual-based models for forests.They simulate dynamic multispecies assemblages over multiple tree-generations and predict forest responses to altered environmental conditions.Their development emphases designation of the significant biological and ecological processes at appropriate time/space scales.Conceptually,they are with consistent with A.G.Tansley’s original definition of"the ecosystem".Results:An example microscale application inspects feedbacks among terrestrial vegetation change,air-quality changes from the vegetation’s release of volatile organic compounds(VOC),and climate change effects on ecosystem production of VOC’s.Gap models can allocate canopy photosynthate to the individual trees whose leaves form the vertical leaf-area profiles.VOC release depends strongly on leaf physiology by species of these trees.Leaf-level VOC emissions increase with climate-warming.Species composition change lowers the abundance of VOC-emitting taxa.In interactions among ecosystem functions and biosphere/atmosphere exchanges,community composition responses can outweigh physiological responses.This contradicts previous studies that emphasize the warming-induced impacts on leaf function.As a mesoscale example,the changes in climate(warming)on forests including pest-insect dynamics demonstrates changes on the both the tree and the insect populations.This is but one of many cases that involve using a gap model to simulate changes in spatial units typical of sampling plots and scaling these to landscape and regional levels.As this is the typical application scale for gap models,other examples are identified.The insect/climatechange can be scaled to regional consequences by simulating survey plots across a continental or subcontinental zone.Forest inventories at these scales are often conducted using independent survey plots distributed across a region.Model construction that mimics this sample design avoids the difficulties in modelling spatial interactions,but we also discuss simulation at these scales with contagion effects.Conclusions:At the global-scale,successful simulations to date have used functional types of plants,rather than tree species.In a final application,the fine-scale predictions of a gap model are compared with data from micrometeorological eddy-covariance towers and then scaled-up to produce maps of global patterns of evapotranspiration,net primary production,gross primary production and respiration.New active-remote-sensing instruments provide opportunities to test these global predictions.

Experimental Study on the Ride Comfort of a Crawler Power Chassis Scale Model Based on the Similitude Theory

The ride comfort experimental assessment of crawler off-road vehicle is relatively overlooked, and is expensive and difficult to execute with higher and higher ride comfort performance requirements. To trade off between precise and cost, an experimental method based on the similitude theory is proposed. Under the guidance of the similitude theory, a 1：5 crawler power chassis scale model equipped with a kind of variable stiffness suspension system is used. The power spectrum density（PSD）, the root mean square（RMS） of weighed acceleration, peak factor, average absorbed power（AAP） and vibration dose value（VDV） are selected as ride comfort evaluation indexes, and tests results are transformed via similarity indexes to predict the performance of full-scale power chassis. PSD shows that the low-order natural frequency of the vertical natural frequency（z axis） is 1.1 Hz, and the RMS, AAP and VDV values indicate the ride comfort performance of this kind of power chassis is between the ＂A little uncomfortable＂ and ＂Rather uncomfortable＂. From the results, low-order vertical natural frequency, obtained by PSD, validates that the similarity relationship between two models is satisfied, and 1：5 scale model used in experiment meets the similarity relationship with the full-scale model; consequently, the ride comfort prophase evaluation with the 1：5 scale model is feasible. The attempt of applying the similitude theory to crawler vehicle ride comfort test study decreases the cost and improves the test feasibility with sufficient test precise.