This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data hete...This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.展开更多
With its agricultural products transported to more than 180 countries and regions,Vietnam is the second largest farm produce exporter in Southeast Asia and 15th in the world.The value of its agricultural exports total...With its agricultural products transported to more than 180 countries and regions,Vietnam is the second largest farm produce exporter in Southeast Asia and 15th in the world.The value of its agricultural exports totaled US$265 billion in the decade from 2008 to 2017 and reached US$40 billion in 2018.Cross-border trade cooperation between Vietnam and China has contributed greatly to the rapid growth of the Vietnam’s farming exports.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Project of National Key Technology R&D Program of China(2009BADA9B01)
文摘This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.
文摘With its agricultural products transported to more than 180 countries and regions,Vietnam is the second largest farm produce exporter in Southeast Asia and 15th in the world.The value of its agricultural exports totaled US$265 billion in the decade from 2008 to 2017 and reached US$40 billion in 2018.Cross-border trade cooperation between Vietnam and China has contributed greatly to the rapid growth of the Vietnam’s farming exports.
